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Exploring the Market for Kirk Cousins - An OTC Write-up


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Exploring the Market for Kirk Cousins

Link to Article, Jason deserves the Site hits.

Click Here b/c You KNOW Cousins IS NOT the Answer for the Jets. 

 

Kirk Cousins is going to be a free agent and will likely receive a record breaking contract in free agency. Pursuing Cousins I think brings up a lot of questions about good and bad use of money. Cousins is the best free agent QB that has been available in years and is a “franchise QB” by the way we define that these days, but I think most people would agree that there are at least 15 players who are better than Cousins at the position. Is that worth the extra money?  Is it worth bypassing on a draft pick?  I’ll take a quick look at some of the top contenders for Cousins and see the pros and cons of making the move.

Cleveland Browns

Why it makes sense: The Browns have been one of the worst teams in the NFL since making their way back to the NFL and much of their futility has been tied to their inability to find a quarterback. Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy, Josh McCown, Jeff Garcia, Jason Campbell, Kelly Holcomb, and Derek Anderson are just some of the names that the team has trotted onto the field over the last 19 years as they have illustrated how not to build a winner. The Browns made big investments in the offensive line last year and have drafted a number of receivers that have some potential. Since the Browns had avoided free agency for a few years prior to 2017 they have been able to build a giant salary cap surplus of nearly $110 million that can be used to design a contract that may minimize risk even as it pushes the $30 million a year level. If they really wanted to think outside the box they have the tools to sign Cousins to a short term deal while trying to develop at QB at the same time perhaps getting the best of both worlds. If they slot in a professional QB like Cousins and utilize their draft picks well they may have the tools to make the leap to 0.500 in an aging division. With an ownership group that bails on the front office every other year having that ability to be 0.500 may outweigh the risk of drafting the next Couch or being fired while the younger guy goes through growing pains over his first two seasons.

 

 

 

Why it doesn’t make sense: With the first and fourth pick in the draft the Browns will have their pick of rookie quarterbacks. In theory the Browns could probably take two of the top three quarterbacks off the board to optimize their chances of a hit at the most important position in the field.  While Cousins may be a safer bet you win in the NFL by hitting a home run and the home run potential exists in the draft not with Cousins. If the team drafts the great QB and pairs him with all these other draft picks they have they could have the makings of something special. Cousins would likely give them more of an Alex Smith in Kansas City upside. Not that this is a bad thing when right now 0.500 is a giant success, but down the line it may be something that disappoints.

New York Jets

Why it makes sense: The Jets have the 6th pick in the draft which puts them outside of the range needed to guarantee landing one of the top rookie quarterbacks. While there are trade possibilities to move up, the Jets have so many holes on the offensive line, at the rush linebacker positions, and in the secondary that trading away any additional draft choices, especially a future number 1, won’t give them the resources to build a winner, putting them back in the 2015 mode where you are just throwing darts in free agency to fill voids. Signing Cousins gives them more draft assets to try to build around him. If you don’t think the Jets can draft a QB at 6 it also provides a better solution for the Jets than signing the journeyman of the year to band aid the position for a season. The team should have close to $90 million in cap room to sign Cousins in a manner that won’t do any long term damage if they can hold firm on contract structure. While the Jets roster is not very good there is not a lot that separates it from the Redskins roster and Cousins has been a playoff contender in Washington. The Jets are looking to be relevant and this is the quickest way possible to be relevant again.

Why it doesn’t make sense: The signing of Cousins would scream Neil O’Donnell for those of you old enough to remember the Jets signing him. Expectations with Cousins would be giant for the Jets and probably bigger than they realistically should be. The Jets fanbase is great but when things go bad they turn quickly and that can rapidly turn a nice marriage into a disaster. Cousins isn’t a savior and the Jets have so many holes that I don’t think the playoffs are a given with him unless the team significantly improves. Since the end of the Tannebaum regime the Jets have been much tighter with money, generally spending one year and then being more frugal the next one or two years. With Cousins they have to go all in to try to build a winner and if they are not going to be willing to do that they should just pass on the opportunity.

 

 

 

Denver Broncos

Why it makes sense: The poor QB play in Denver has really let a great defensive unit go to waste. If there is one team that really needs to slot in a veteran QB it is the Broncos. Cousins will come with the highest recommendations from John Elway’s former coach Mike Shanahan and it would be a great fit. With two very good receivers, a strong defense and a top pick to use on an offensive lineman or running back this is a ready made situation for someone like Cousins. Given the age of the team it makes far more sense for Denver to be making a move for a QB in free agency than hoping to develop one with the 5th pick. The AFC conference is weak and they would have a good chance to make a Super Bowl if they could gain home field even with whatever deficiencies Cousins may have.

Why it doesn’t make sense: I’m not going to call the Broncos cheap by any means but they are much more difficult than others to deal with. If Cousins price tag is going to be in the $30 million range it is hard to see the Broncos being comfortable with that when options at half that price may exist. The Broncos don’t have the cap space of teams like the Jets and Browns and will likely wind up with more salary cap issues down the line if they try to fit Cousins in. It is also possible that the window for this particular group is closed and they run the risk of being the Arizona Cardinals if they try to extend it. If that is the thought internally they should pass on Cousins for a cheaper option or drafting whomever is the third QB off the board.

Minnesota Vikings

Why it makes sense: Many aren’t considering the Vikings but this is a team that does not have a QB under contract for next season and has around $50 million in cap room to spend. This is a win now team that caught lightning in a bottle with Case Keenum who is expected to return, but if your option is Keenum on a $20M transition tag and either Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford backing up for like $7 million doesn’t it make more sense to sign Cousins for close to that same number?  The Vikings already showed how aggressive they will be when they wasted a first round pick on Bradford when they got fleeced by the Eagles so why not be aggressive with Cousins in free agency? They have a good defense and their skill players of Diggs, Thielen, and Cook are a nice combo.

 

 

 

Why it doesn’t make sense: The Vikings need someone that can win a big game in a competitive NFC, especially if the other squads remain healthy.  Cousins hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in big situations so while he probably brings more certainty to the regular season he might not make a big difference in the playoffs. If the Vikings don’t intend to spend $27 million on two of their three free agents this year is all that extra money on Cousins worth the improved chance of a wildcard/division title and high chance of a one game exit?  Probably not.

Buffalo Bills

Why it makes sense: It seemed pretty clear last season that the team had already decided to move on from Tyrod Taylor despite the fact that they don’t really have anyone on the roster ready to step in and replace him. Coming off a playoff season it is hard to see them next year with Nathan Peterman or Josh McCown at QB, but those are the type of options they will have if they cut Taylor and pass on Cousins. Buffalo has been struggling for years to make an impact and it would just seem like such a step down to move on from Taylor unless they have a better option on the table.

 

 

 

Why it doesn’t make sense: Is anyone really excited about the Bills roster?  Plenty of teams hit with the rookie head coach and then just hit a wall the next year. They have a lot of turnover to deal with and outside of LeSean McCoy (who will be 30 this year) don’t really have any skill positions in place. They do have two first rounders to work with, but often a receiver in the 20s takes some time to develop. Buffalo has struggled with their contracts in recent years and would likely sign something that would be incredibly player friendly locking them in much longer than some of the other teams.

 

 

 

Arizona Cardinals

Why it makes sense: Arizona finished the year 8-8 despite having next to nothing at the QB position. They have the most dangerous back, if healthy, in the NFL in David Johnson which would be a perfect pairing for Cousins. The Cardinals finished the year pretty strong defensively and they have a good system in place to consistently do well on that side of the ball.  The NFC West looks to be one of the toughest divisions in football and they can’t get by with Drew Stanton. Cousins would provide a long term solution rather than going the Stanton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown route while hoping to luck into a draft pick.

 

 

 

Why it doesn’t make sense: Realistically the window has closed on this group and its only the Cardinals that seem oblivious to this. Even if you are going to chase it with this group its probably better to take a risk on a Sam Bradford for a year than going 5 years on Cousins.  The team’s salary cap is an issue. They have around $22 million in cap room and the most free agent snaps to replace in the entire league. To fit Cousins into their situation really means kicking the can down the road. Not sure they are good enough to be doing that.

Miami Dolphins

Why it makes sense: No team budgeted more for QBs last season than Miami who desperately had to convince Jay Cutler to come out of retirement to try to salvage the season when their starter, Ryan Tannehill, was injured for the second year in a row. The Dolphins love to make a splash and their chase after Ndamukong Suh a few years back should prove that no price will completely scare them away if they think the player deserves it. Miami has some good skill players on the team, far better than the Redskins, and they would probably be a playoff team if they bring in Cousins and keep receiver Jarvis Landry.

Why it doesn’t make sense: The salary cap. Even if they cut Tannehill they will only have around $22 million in cap space. To fit Cousins and Landry in that small of a number is not really a responsible use of cap room. Sure they can slice money elsewhere through cuts and restructures but is that going to make Miami better long term?  If Tannehill’s knee can hold up the gap between he and Cousins isn’t big enough to cut ties with Tannehill.  Miami may still be in a position to draft a decent QB at 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Why it makes sense: The Jaguars were the most complete team in the AFC if you take QB out of the equation. They have a solid offensive line, a nice core of young receivers, a terrific running back, a great secondary and a great pass rush.  Unfortunately they have Blake Bortles at QB and he is probably the worst QB since Mark Sanchez to block a great team from moving forward. While we can argue about Cousins upside and play in a big spot I don’t think there is any argument that he is an upgrade over Bortles. The Jaguars love to spend money and certainly won’t haggle over a contract.

Why it doesn’t make sense: The Jaguars inexplicably used the option year on Bortles last year which guarantees Bortles $19 million if he is injured, which he currently is. The team simply cant cut Bortles and spending that kind of money on Bortles combined with what it would cost to sign Cousins would even make the free spending Jaguars take a step back.

 

 

:D

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Also, instead of starting a short term thread:

An ASJ TE FA market comp to note:

Trevor Sikkema of Pewter Report expects restricted free agent Cameron Brate to command a deal worth $6.5-7.5 million annually.

The high end of that would put Brate firmly in the top-ten at his position, though the Bucs may be reluctant to dish out that kind of coin, especially after taking O.J. Howard in the first round of last year's draft. Brate remained productive with 591 receiving yards in 2017 and has visited the end zone 14 times in his last two seasons, third among tight ends behind only Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph. Because he's a restricted free agent, the Bucs can keep Brate by matching any offer he receives on the open market.
 
 
Source: Pewter Report
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Quote

Why it doesn’t make sense: The signing of Cousins would scream Neil O’Donnell for those of you old enough to remember the Jets signing him. Expectations with Cousins would be giant for the Jets and probably bigger than they realistically should be. The Jets fanbase is great but when things go bad they turn quickly and that can rapidly turn a nice marriage into a disaster. Cousins isn’t a savior and the Jets have so many holes that I don’t think the playoffs are a given with him unless the team significantly improves. Since the end of the Tannebaum regime the Jets have been much tighter with money, generally spending one year and then being more frugal the next one or two years. With Cousins they have to go all in to try to build a winner and if they are not going to be willing to do that they should just pass on the opportunity.

This!

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42 minutes ago, legler82 said:

This!

I honestly don’t get the O’Donnell references at all.  O’Donnell was NEVER a top 7 QB at any point in his career.  

When the Jets went and signed him, our best two players were rookies Chrebet and Hugh Douglass.  We had nothing else.  We eventually signed Jumbo and drafted Keyshawn but the roster was bare.

We at least have young good players on defense.  We have the resources to transform our offense around him this year.  

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We're really not going to do the Neal O'Donnell thing again, are we? As used in the article, it's a metaphor for overly high expectations, not a literal comparison of their skill set or stats. I get the argument that Cousins is not Aaron Rodgers. Not sure I've seen anyone suggest that. So please let's not waste pages and pages on a misreading of the above text.

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Just now, Long Island Leprechaun said:

We're really not going to do the Neal O'Donnell thing again, are we? As used in the article, it's a metaphor for overly high expectations, not a literal comparison of their skill set or stats. I get the argument that Cousins is not Aaron Rodgers. Not sure I've seen anyone suggest that. So please let's not waste pages and pages on a misreading of the above text.

I think the expectations would be to play as well as he is playing now.  The team around him sucked this year and has sucked for the past three years.  The market for a top 10 QB is between $27M - $30M.  

Our choices are simple: sign a great QB for a ton of $$ or keep going the same route we have been for 40 years: over drafting long shot QBs that don’t have a prayer of developing when all our draft capital goes to maintaining our average at best defense.

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13 minutes ago, jbt said:

what are the odds of the QB they draft, they can develop and put up numbers like this:

3 straight 4000 yard seasons.  Avg 4392

Avg of 67% completion %

81 tds, 36ints

IF we count Ken O'Brien as the last semi-successful QB, I come up with 1/17 or 5.88% chance every 35 years so in theory, in any given year we have a 0.17% chance of finding a QB. 

Huzzah! Dilly Dilly! I'm sure this will be the year! 

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I know a guy who had even less support around him this year than Cousins.  His WR corps were routinely described as the WORST in the NFL, he had a terrible OL with an awful center and a coaching staff that sucked big hairy donkey balls.  Yet, despite all this going against him, he had a 67% completion rate, 3000 yards and +2-1 TD to Int ratio.

He could have easily had more yards and TDs with a better supporting cast and better coaching!!!!

Maybe we should give him slightly less money than Cousins would get and use the savings to build on the OL and skill positions around him.

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Love this quote - which is exactly how I feel. You need guts and patience to rebuild the correct way. Too bad they wasted two years before they started the rebuild. 

"While Cousins may be a safer bet you win in the NFL by hitting a home run and the home run potential exists in the draft not with Cousins."

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1 hour ago, IndianaJet said:

I know a guy who had even less support around him this year than Cousins.  His WR corps were routinely described as the WORST in the NFL, he had a terrible OL with an awful center and a coaching staff that sucked big hairy donkey balls.  Yet, despite all this going against him, he had a 67% completion rate, 3000 yards and +2-1 TD to Int ratio.

He could have easily had more yards and TDs with a better supporting cast and better coaching!!!!

Maybe we should give him slightly less money than Cousins would get and use the savings to build on the OL and skill positions around him.

As crazy as it sounds.....eh it's still crazy.  The main issue is even if we did get a good year out of McCown next year, then what?  Cousins won't be available next year and we likely will be picking lower than 6th.

Cousins is out there now and it frees up the #6 overall pick and even more if we were planning on trading up. 

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7 minutes ago, long suffering jets fan said:

As crazy as it sounds.....eh it's still crazy.  The main issue is even if we did get a good year out of McCown next year, then what?  Cousins won't be available next year and we likely will be picking lower than 6th.

Cousins is out there now and it frees up the #6 overall pick and even more if we were planning on trading up. 

Trading down is more like it. Sign Cousins & hope there's a huge run on QBs at the top. At 6 you might find a team that has zeroed in on another QB or have their eyes on a specific player. If you get your QB, than you can start filling holes with BPA at those positions. 

Jets could have a Saints 2017 like draft with. Those spots. That high 2nd could be a really, really good RB to put behind Cousins. There are some stud RBs, Jones & Michel my favorites!

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1 minute ago, Jetster said:

Trading down is more like it. Sign Cousins & hope there's a huge run on QBs at the top. At 6 you might find a team that has zeroed in on another QB or have their eyes on a specific player. If you get your QB, than you can start filling holes with BPA at those positions. 

Jets could have a Saints 2017 like draft with. Those spots. That high 2nd could be a really, really good RB to put behind Cousins. There are some stud RBs, Jones & Michel my favorites!

I agree a few extra picks for moving back a few spots can really fill some gaps and God knows we have plenty to fill.  CB, OLB, OL, RB, WR, the more picks the merrier.

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3 hours ago, jbt said:

what are the odds of the QB they draft, they can develop and put up numbers like this:

3 straight 4000 yard seasons.  Avg 4392

Avg of 67% completion %

81 tds, 36ints

Do those numbers guarantee wins and playoff berths?  If so, sign me up.

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11 hours ago, long suffering jets fan said:

As crazy as it sounds.....eh it's still crazy.  The main issue is even if we did get a good year out of McCown next year, then what?  Cousins won't be available next year and we likely will be picking lower than 6th.

Cousins is out there now and it frees up the #6 overall pick and even more if we were planning on trading up. 

i think i'm leaning towards the cousins route.  5 years is a pretty long time in the nfl.  most of the guys on a team at the beginning of a 5 year cycle are gone by the end.  but it still depends on cousins wanting to play for the jets and the terms of the contract.  it still makes no sense to wheel up the dump truck if there's a chance he can be signed for a pick up truck.

another point is so far under bowles we've seen two scrub qb's have career years.  what does this say about the jets and how cousins would perform? maybe nothing but it is interesting.

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