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JetsFanNick12

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44 minutes ago, JetsFanNick12 said:

When are they announced?  And what are we looking at this year?

The Laziness of 'Merica in the era of search engines :rolleyes:

 

Projecting compensatory picks for 2018 NFL Draft

Compensatory picks have garnered a greater percentage of the conversation in NFL circles in recent years as team philosophies have been changing regarding free agency and, for the first time ever, teams were allowed to trade compensatory picks in 2017 thanks to a rule change.

Many teams are opting to allow their players to depart via free agency en masse and collect compensatory picks rather than re-signing these players.

So, how do compensatory picks work?

The number of compensatory picks allotted each year is limited to the number of teams in the league (32), per the Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, compensatory picks are not divvied up equally among the teams and no team can receive more than 4 compensatory picks in a single year. To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better compensatory free agents lost than gained in a particular year.

Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks in Rounds 3-7 based upon a formula, which is not release by the league, that takes into account a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is a general expected level of compensation for a player based upon the amount he has signed for, playing time (or lack thereof), will often alter the expectation by the end of the season.

The compensatory picks for the 2018 draft won't be determined by the NFL Management Council until after the 2017 season is over, but in this post I will attempt to project and explain who might be getting picks and where they could fall.

Here are the teams I project to receive compensatory picks in 2018, listed from most picks to least:

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 4 PICKS

Cardinals

Projected compensatory picks: Four -- Round 3 / Round 4 / Round 5 / Round 6
Key free-agent losses: Calais Campbell (Jaguars), Marcus Cooper (Bears), Tony Jefferson (Ravens), D.J. Swearinger (Redskins) 
Key free-agent additions: Phil Dawson 
Skinny: I expect Campbell will bring a third-rounder while Jefferson should bring a fourth-rounder. Cooper is expected to bring a fifth-rounder with D.J. Swearinger's departure bringing a sixth-rounder.

Cowboys

Projected compensatory picks: Four -- Round 4 / Three picks in Round 5
Key free-agent losses: Brandon Carr (Ravens), Barry Church (Jaguars), Ronald Leary (Broncos)
Key free-agent additions: Nolan Carroll 
Skinny: The Cowboys' secondary was picked clean by free agency, but Leary's departure to Denver is the loss that is expected to bring in a fourth-round compensatory pick. If not for the cap on compensatory picks a team can receive in a single year, the Cowboys would be in line for as many as six in 2018.

Packers

Projected compensatory picks: Four -- Round 3 / Round 5 / Two picks in Round 7 
Key free-agent losses: Jared Cook (Raiders), Micah Hyde (Bills), Eddie Lacy(Seahawks), T.J. Lang (Lions), JC Tretter (Browns)
Key free-agent additions: Martellus BennettJahri Evans 
Skinny: The loss of Hyde was cancelled by the addition of Bennett, but the losses of Lang and Tretter should bring third- and fifth-rounders, respectively. Cook and Lacy will bring either sixth- or seventh-round picks, but that is dependent upon snap count, which might not be high enough considering the positions they play.

Raiders

Projected compensatory picks: Four -- Round 5 / Round 6 / Two picks in Round 7
Key free-agent losses: Stacy McGee (Redskins), Latavius Murray (Vikings), Malcolm Smith (49ers), Menelik Watson (Broncos) 
Key free-agent additions: Jared CookCordarrelle Patterson 
Skinny: The loss of Watson could bring a fifth-rounder, while the other departures might not bring more than a sixth- and two seventh-rounders.

* * *

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 3 PICKS

Bengals

Projected compensatory picks: Three -- Round 3 / Round 5 / Round 7
Key free-agent losses: Karlos Dansby (Cardinals), Margus Hunt (Colts), Andrew Whitworth (Rams), Kevin Zeitler (Browns) 
Key free-agent additions: Kevin Minter 
Skinny: Both Zeitler and Whitworth received contracts that could qualify them for third-round compensatory picks, but Whitworth has more than 10 years in the league so the maximum the Bengals can expect is a fifth-rounder for him, per rules governing compensatory picks. The Bengals also have a chance to land a seventh-rounder with the departures of Karlos Dansby or Margus Hunt.

Texans

Projected compensatory picks: Three -- Round 3 / Two picks in Round 6 
Key free-agent losses: A.J. Bouye (Jaguars), Quintin Demps (Bears), John Simon(Colts)
Key free-agent additions: None 
Skinny: The loss of Bouye should result in a third-round compensatory pick for the Texans, while the losses of Demps and Simon should bring sixth-rounders based on their salaries and expected usage.

* * *

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 2 PICKS

Patriots

Projected compensatory picks: Two picks in Round 4
Key free-agent losses: Martellus Bennett (Packers), Logan Ryan (Titans), Jabaal Sheard (Colts)
Key free-agent additions: Stephon Gilmore 
Skinny: The Patriots should be receiving two picks, but the level of compensation will be partially determined by how Sheard performs with the Colts and Bennett performs with the Packers. We will project performances and snap counts on the high side to go along with their annual compensation totals, which should create fourth-round compensation for both.

Vikings

Projected compensatory picks: Two -- Round 6 / Round 7
Key free-agent losses: Matt Kalil (Panthers), Cordarrelle Patterson (Raiders), Adrian Peterson (Saints), Andre Smith (Bengals)
Key free-agent additions: Riley ReiffMike Remmers 
Skinny: I'm projecting the Vikings' top four losses will all be cancelled out by their top four additions. However, I do expect them to get sixth- or seventh-rounders for Andre Smith and Adrian Peterson, depending on snaps. 

* * *

TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 1 PICK

Broncos

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 3
Key free-agent losses: Russell Okung (Chargers), Sylvester Williams (Titans)
Key free-agent additions: Ronald LearyMenelik Watson 
Skinny: They should be receiving a third-rounder for the departure of Okung.

Chargers

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 7
Key free-agent losses: Manti Te'o (Saints), Danny Woodhead (Ravens) 
Key free-agent additions: Russell Okung 
Skinny: The Chargers won't qualify for a compensatory pick for Woodhead with the addition of Okung cancelling that out, but the loss of Te'o to the Saints could bring the Chargers a seventh-rounder if he can find the field for New Orleans.

Chiefs

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 6
Key free-agent losses: Nick Foles (Eagles), Dontari Poe (Falcons)
Key free-agent additions: Bennie Logan 
Skinny: The loss of Poe was cancelled out by the addition of Logan, so the best possible outcome for the Chiefs would be to receive a fifth-round compensatory pick for Foles. However, since the value will be based not only on annual contract amount but also playing time, it's likely that the Chiefs will be receiving a sixth-rounder.

Giants

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 4
Key free-agent losses: Johnathan Hankins (Colts)
Key free-agent additions: None
Skinny: The departure of Hankins to the Colts should cement a fourth-round compensatory pick for the Giants.

Ravens

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 3
Key free-agent losses: Ricky Wagner (Lions)
Key free-agent additions: Tony Jefferson 
Skinny: Wagner's contract and playing time should guarantee the Ravens a third-rounder.

Steelers

Projected compensatory picks: One -- Round 5
Key free-agent losses: Lawrence Timmons (Dolphins)
Key free-agent additions: None
Skinny: The Steelers are in line to potentially receive a fifth-round pick for Timmons.

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1 hour ago, rangerous said:

hmmmm...so the patsies get a pick for bennett?  he's on the friggin team.  yeah i know he left and went to the packers but awful coincidental he's back and they get a pick for him.

I got the sense from the article that it was written before the season started ... lots of "if he sees the field" comments.

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17 hours ago, JetsFanNick12 said:

When are they announced?  And what are we looking at this year?

3rd/4th

  • TJ Lang (Green Bay): #88
  • Ricky Wagner (Baltimore): #89
  • Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #97
  • Tony Jefferson (Arizona): #103
  • Jabaal Sheard (New England): #119
  • Johnathan Hankins (New York Giants): #127
  • Ron Leary (Dallas): #133

4th/5th

  • Barry Church (Dallas): #188
  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #193

5th/6th

  • Menelik Watson (Oakland): #276
  • Jared Cook (Green Bay): #288
  • Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #290
  • DJ Swearinger (Arizona): #298

6th/7th

  • Projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #483
  • Akeem Spence (Tampa Bay): #484
  • Kevin Minter (Arizona): #506
  • JJ Wilcox (Dallas): #513

7th/Qualifying

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19 hours ago, JetsFanNick12 said:

When are they announced?  And what are we looking at this year?

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

For the AFC-East, looks like Over the Cap predicts that only the Patriots will get comp picks this year:

AFC East

  • Buffalo Bills
    Qualifying UFAs Lost: 5 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 8
    Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
    Stephon Gilmore 3 $13,000,000 46 Micah Hyde 5 $6,000,000 222
    Robert Woods 5 $6,800,000 207 Jordan Poyer 6 $3,150,000 418
    Marquise Goodwin 6 $2,950,000 477 Stephen Hauschka 6 $2,950,000 452
    Zach Brown 7 $2,300,000 573 Patrick DiMarco 7 $2,050,000 643
    Lerentee McCray 7 $1,750,000 727 Andre Holmes 7 $1,666,667 703
      Vladimir Ducasse 7 $1,166,667 787
      Ryan Davis 7 $1,000,000 901
      Leonard Johnson 7 $855,000 961
    Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained
    Justin Hunter   $855,000 1016  
    E.J. Manuel   $775,000 1116  
  • New England Patriots
    Qualifying UFAs Lost: 5 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
    Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
    Logan Ryan 3 $10,000,000 66 Stephon Gilmore 3 $13,000,000 46
    Jabaal Sheard 4 $8,500,000 120  
    Chris Long 7 $2,250,000 607 Lawrence Guy 6 $3,400,000 436
    Barkevious Mingo 7 $2,000,000 636 Rex Burkhead 7 $3,150,000 505
    LeGarrette Blount 7 $1,200,000 817  
  • Miami Dolphins
    Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 5
    Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
    Dion Sims 5 $6,000,000 256 Lawrence Timmons 5 $5,975,000 247
      T.J. McDonald 6 $1,344,000 367
      Nate Allen 6 $3,400,000 456
      Anthony Fasano 7 $2,750,000 527
      Ted Larsen 7 $1,858,333 661
  • New York Jets
    Qualifying UFAs Lost: 1 Qualifying UFAs Gained: 2
    Name Rd. APY Rank Name Rd. APY Rank
      Kelvin Beachum 4 $8,000,000 117
    Geno Smith 7 $1,175,000 859 Morris Claiborne 5 $5,000,000 286
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