Complete Saquon Barkely breakdown and comp.

[Patriot Killa]

After not knowing sh*t about the guy..I did some research and watch some game tape...now this is just my unprofessional opinion but...

He’s the kind of player who can get defenders on their heels and back peddling where they won’t be able to take a clean angle at him. He also has power. In all three of his seasons he accumulated 194 missed tackles, one of PFF’s highest marks in the country. He lead the NCAA in broken tackles with 60 in 12 games vs Power 5 opponents. Where you can read here..

https://247sports.com/college/penn-state/Bolt/No-RB-breaks-more-tackles-than-Saquon-Barkley-52771828

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-saquon-barkley/

His power is incredible for his weight. At 230 he power cleans over 400lbs and squats 600. Thats one hell of a strong player. His pass protecting is very clean and he knew his blocking assignments to the T at Penn State. He also is a very sure handed HB out of the back field. Deadly on flat routes and with his 4.33 speed .. WATCH OUT on those wheel routes. His style isn’t that of a ‘Power Back’s’ though. Leonard Fournette for example, would try and lower his shoulder and grind out the yardage. Barkley is more of a make defenders miss type of guy yet he has a vicious stiff arm. But his hurdling game is untouched. James Franklin made the phrase “I believe he can fly!” on his run where he cleared at least 6 yards jumping clean over an Illinois defender.

3rd Down conversion rates: this section breaks down his effort and Powers as a running back on 3rd and short.

3rd and short conversion stats in my mind sort of can be skewed in the sense that certain teams such as Penn State like to run a lot of option plays on 3rd and try to catch a defender out of place in order to make the decision on if he wants to pass or run. McSorely would read the play and decide if he wants to flip it to his half back or go a different route completely. McSorely, a good amount of the time would make the wrong read and then which resulted in a failed 3rd down. You have to dig deeper into the amount of carries on 3rd down to get a better idea of what the half back has done with those opportunities.

2017:

In a 10 game sample size he had 30 attempts on 3rd down for 129 yards and an average of 4.3 yards an attempt. 11 first downs, longest: 65 yards, 2 of 10 plus yards and 1 of 20 plus yards and 4 TD’s.

Okay, let’s dig a little deeper now...

3rd down with 1-3 to go he had an 8 game sample size with 102 yards and 4.8 yards per attempt. 

3rd down with 4-6 to go he had a sample size of 5 games and 6 attempts.. 8 yards and 1.6 yards per attempt(this is the smallest sample size available on 3rd down situations so this stat is a little skewed from the start)

Here is the chart for you to look at:

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/player/539/1072444/rushing/situational.html

Pass protection revisited:

Back to pass protection for a second, because that very important in a three down back. Here is an article I was reading on Leonard Fournette’s pass blocking when finding a comparison in their short yardage conversions.

“Evaluating running backs as pass blockers is tricky. Few teams will spend a high pick on a running back who can’t stay on the field on passing downs. Yet many college systems are basic in protection schemes and don’t ask the primary ball-carriers to do a lot of pass protection. Explains one high-ranking NFL front office evaluator: “We always look at the pass protection aspect pretty closely, but we also give most players the benefit of the doubt due to the type of system they had in college.”

“Intelligence is just as important an element to have as physical size/strength because there is always a learning curve for young backs learning pass protection schemes.”

Why does Leonard Fournette’s pass protection have anything to do with Barkley’s you might ask?

PFF rated Fournette’s pass protecting as a 90 in all three years, albeit, it was a small sample size.

PFF rated Barkley with a 86.2 in pass protecting this year with a large sample size and was 5th amoungest all FBS Backs.

Pass Catching Ability:

“Barkley, the Whitehall High graduate, has elicited that response for two years as perhaps college football’s best running back. Now this year, Barkley is enhancing another dimension of his game — as a receiver. Barkley ranks fifth in the Big Ten in both rushing yards (102.3 per game) and receiving yards (80.3), making him the conference’s most dangerous player with the ball. Add his first-year status as Penn State’s primary kick returner, and Barkley averages 218.3 all-purpose yards per game, which ranks second nationally. 

Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead didn’t want Barkley to be “pigeonholed” as a running back, so he has lined him at receiver and called passes to him from the backfield. Barkley leads Penn State in receiving yards (241), with 85 of those coming on his touchdown catch against Georgia State, the team’s longest-ever pass play at Beaver Stadium.

With 804 career receiving yards, Barkley already has broken Tony Hunt’s Penn State record for running backs. He’s only going to catch more passes, particularly if defenses press the run.”

This isn’t new for Barkley, who has been catching passes since high school. Back then, Whitehall High coach Brian Gilbert slotted Barkley at receiver in off-season 7-on-7 camps to get him more comfortable catching passes. When Barkley arrived at Penn State, Franklin challenged him to become more involved in the passing

Barkley caught 28 passes last year, the most memorable in the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin. Barkley scored the game-winner on a wheel-route reception out of the backfield, racing past Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt.

The play was more difficult than it looked, Barkley said, particularly that over-the-shoulder catch. Before this season, Barkley ran more routes with receivers, and spent time with them catching passes from the JUGS machine, to upgrade his skills.

Further, Barkley at receiver is among Penn State’s best assets to draw coverages from other players, notably tight end Mike Gesicki. Worried about Barkley on another wheel route? That might mean Gesicki’s alone over the middle.

“The value of a running back who can catch a lot of passes in the game is huge,” Barkley said. “It brings a different aspect to the game.”

http://www.mcall.com/sports/college/psu/mc-spt-penn-state-football-saquon-barkley-receiver-20170920-story,amp.html

Statistics surely back up Barkley’s further involvement in the passing game. Year by year his entire pass catching resume grew more and more impressive.

2015: 20 receptions, 161 yards, 14.8 yards per game and 1 TD

2016: 28 receptions, 402 yards, 28.7 yards per game and 4 TD’s

2017: 54 receptions, 632 yards, 48.6 yards per game and 3 TD’s

Side note: He made a one handed grab and run against Indiana.. that was an absolute eye popping beauty.

Barkley’s home run explosiveness:

One of his very well known traits. This guy can break off a 90 yard touchdown quite easily. His one issue is he likes to try and cut back a little more often than he should, instead of lowering his shoulder. He needs to be able to recognize which opportunity warrants which decision so he can make the best possible outcome out of each carry. Aside from that, he is one hell of a runner and possesses some EXPLOSIVE bursts through the line of scrimmage. The longest run in his collegiate career was during the Fiesta Bowl where he broke a 92 yard touchdown to put Penn St. up 28-7.

69 yard touchdown against Michigan

57 yard touchdown against Iowa

85 yard touchdown against Georgia State

36 yard touchdown against Ohio State

79 yard touchdown against USC

55 yard touchdown against Temple 

42 yard touchdown on a juggling catch against Michigan. 

81 yard touchdown against Purdue

And no one can forget his walk off winning TD against Minnesota in OT.

Point blank...he is very explosive.

Conclusion and comparison.

He can be an all pro back for a very long time. Elite athleticism. Good vision and great cuts. He can pass block very well. He can catch out of the back field with the best of them. He is only going to get better. He is a complete 3 down back and doesn’t have the usage concerns Fournette had. He doesn’t have the injury concerns Gurley had. He is a monster. 

 

Modern NFL comparison:

Ezekiel Elliot

Past Era NFL comparison:

Marshall Faulk

 

 

[Patriot Killa]

 

[Patriot Killa]

 

[cant wait]

he’s a beast. he looks like a bigger version of barry sanders and is worthy of the #1 overall pick

[Patriot Killa]

4 hours ago, cant wait said:

he’s a beast. he looks like a bigger version of barry sanders and is worthy of the #1 overall pick

Barry Sanders .. that’s an interesting comparison. I think in a sense you are correct. His vision on cut backs and such definitely can be compared to someone like Sanders.

[nyjbuddy]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Barry Sanders .. that’s an interesting comparison. I think in a sense you are correct. His vision on cut backs and such definitely can be compared to someone like Sanders.

Same NFL comp made by Lance Zierlein on nfl.com

[Patriot Killa]

28 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

Same NFL comp made by Lance Zierlein on nfl.com

This guy truly is an amazing prospect. I’ve never seen this type of skill set and elite athleticism in any other player but guys like Bo Jackson/Barry Sanders .. it’s wild.

[Beerfish]

For such a 'beast' I cannot get over the totally pedestrian numbers he put up in half his games last year.  I also do not see a Sanders comparison on the out right escape-ability meter.  Barkley scores a lot of long tds because he is so fast, the oppos for that in the pros is less.

Excellent back, top back in the draft but for me the value is not so head and shoulders over other backs in a loaded RB class to pick him at 6 when really great backs will go early 2nd round.

[cant wait]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

For such a 'beast' I cannot get over the totally pedestrian numbers he put up in half his games last year.  I also do not see a Sanders comparison on the out right escape-ability meter.  Barkley scores a lot of long tds because he is so fast, the oppos for that in the pros is less.

Excellent back, top back in the draft but for me the value is not so head and shoulders over other backs in a loaded RB class to pick him at 6 when really great backs will go early 2nd round.

if you don’t see the balance and change of direction ability this kid has, then you’re blind. don’t worry he’s not making it to #6

[Philc1]

Cousins likes throwing to the rb and TE.  If he’s there at 6 get him

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, cant wait said:

if you don’t see the balance and change of direction ability this kid has, then you’re blind. don’t worry he’s not making it to #6

Barry sanders ran for like 2 billion yards in his last college year, this guy had abut 7 or 8 game sunder 100.  I'll be happy as a clam if he does not make it to 6.  Means we have a better shot at one of the top two qbs.

[cant wait]

30 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Barry sanders ran for like 2 billion yards in his last college year, this guy had abut 7 or 8 game sunder 100.  I'll be happy as a clam if he does not make it to 6.  Means we have a better shot at one of the top two qbs.

that season by sanders might have been the single greatest season by any player in any sport ever. regardless barkley is still elite by any means- if you watch the way he runs, he’s got the rare ability to accelerate into his cuts and is what reminds me most of sanders. I was actually shocked to find out he was 230- just based on the way he moves I expected him to be closer to sanders or chris johnson in size. he does look for the home run on every play which is obviously not going to fly in the  NFL but I do think he could be a 2000 yard guy. if cleveland doesn’t take him #1 I think there’s no way he makes it past them at 4

[cant wait]

and apparently he’s a jets fan so he knows the struggle LOL

[Philc1]

12 hours ago, cant wait said:

and apparently he’s a jets fan so he knows the struggle LOL

Sold

[rangerous]

interesting write up.  grabbing a rb at 6 isn't the worst thing.  it's also a good way to get an elite rb for cheap money as well as a position the jets need to fill.  and with all of the qb's projected to be taken, he might just be there unless cleveland snatches him up.

[MDL_JET]

https://www.ndtscouting.com/ledyard-evaluating-beauty-saquon-barkleys-game-without-ignoring-warts/

Good article on Barkley and caution with him. 

 

 

 

The problem is that Barkley has been billed as the perfect prospect when he isn’t, and really it’s ok that he isn’t. But if you watch tape of him, Sony Michel and Derrius Guice (my top two running backs) side-by-side, tell me who is the most decisive runner? Tell me who is most patient and works off of blocks best? Tell me who manipulates second level defenders before the line of scrimmage? Tell me who lowers their pads and runs through contact to give five yards on a play that looked bottled up at the line of scrimmage? Tell me who consistently maximizes runs and keeps their offense on schedule? Tell me who is the most nuanced player as a pure running back?

If your answer is Barkley first to any of those questions, I’m just not sure what you’re seeing. Now, if I ask you to tell me who the prospect is with the most upside, the most versatility and the most athleticism, you better answer Barkley first. But are his athletic tools that superior to more refined players in the class? If he runs a 4.4 flat and Guice runs a 4.49, but the LSU runner is the better pure running back based on all the things we mentioned above, is it really so outrageous to believe Guice should be selected first for a team looking for a starting rusher?

[cant wait]

21 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/ledyard-evaluating-beauty-saquon-barkleys-game-without-ignoring-warts/

Good article on Barkley and caution with him. 

 

 

 

The problem is that Barkley has been billed as the perfect prospect when he isn’t, and really it’s ok that he isn’t. But if you watch tape of him, Sony Michel and Derrius Guice (my top two running backs) side-by-side, tell me who is the most decisive runner? Tell me who is most patient and works off of blocks best? Tell me who manipulates second level defenders before the line of scrimmage? Tell me who lowers their pads and runs through contact to give five yards on a play that looked bottled up at the line of scrimmage? Tell me who consistently maximizes runs and keeps their offense on schedule? Tell me who is the most nuanced player as a pure running back?

If your answer is Barkley first to any of those questions, I’m just not sure what you’re seeing. Now, if I ask you to tell me who the prospect is with the most upside, the most versatility and the most athleticism, you better answer Barkley first. But are his athletic tools that superior to more refined players in the class? If he runs a 4.4 flat and Guice runs a 4.49, but the LSU runner is the better pure running back based on all the things we mentioned above, is it really so outrageous to believe Guice should be selected first for a team looking for a starting rusher?

that’s fair, the tough move the pile short runs are definitely not part of his game- part of the reason I was shocked that he’s 230. you just rarely see a guy with that size that’s a finesse runner like he is. btw here’s a different clip from the same game of a run where he makes a nice gain out of nothing  

 

Saquon jump cut ??? pic.twitter.com/g80YgucJrE

— Pick Six Previews (@PickSixPreviews) September 24, 2017

[HessStation]

He's the newest version of AP.

[long suffering jets fan]

On 2/9/2018 at 10:31 AM, Beerfish said:

For such a 'beast' I cannot get over the totally pedestrian numbers he put up in half his games last year.  I also do not see a Sanders comparison on the out right escape-ability meter.  Barkley scores a lot of long tds because he is so fast, the oppos for that in the pros is less.

Excellent back, top back in the draft but for me the value is not so head and shoulders over other backs in a loaded RB class to pick him at 6 when really great backs will go early 2nd round.

Been watching him for 2 years.  He completely changes the dynamic of the game.  He has to be accounted for every single play which opens up opportunities all over the field.  He has Barry Sanders moves, but is 30 lbs heavier.  His weight is actually similar to Fournette,  now watch those videos again keeping that in mind and it'll register how special an athlete he is. 

 

[long suffering jets fan]

On 2/12/2018 at 9:03 PM, MDL_JET said:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/ledyard-evaluating-beauty-saquon-barkleys-game-without-ignoring-warts/

Good article on Barkley and caution with him. 

 

 

 

The problem is that Barkley has been billed as the perfect prospect when he isn’t, and really it’s ok that he isn’t. But if you watch tape of him, Sony Michel and Derrius Guice (my top two running backs) side-by-side, tell me who is the most decisive runner? Tell me who is most patient and works off of blocks best? Tell me who manipulates second level defenders before the line of scrimmage? Tell me who lowers their pads and runs through contact to give five yards on a play that looked bottled up at the line of scrimmage? Tell me who consistently maximizes runs and keeps their offense on schedule? Tell me who is the most nuanced player as a pure running back?

If your answer is Barkley first to any of those questions, I’m just not sure what you’re seeing. Now, if I ask you to tell me who the prospect is with the most upside, the most versatility and the most athleticism, you better answer Barkley first. But are his athletic tools that superior to more refined players in the class? If he runs a 4.4 flat and Guice runs a 4.49, but the LSU runner is the better pure running back based on all the things we mentioned above, is it really so outrageous to believe Guice should be selected first for a team looking for a starting rusher?

Guice is likely a late first, or second round pick.  The difference is Guice is a RB, Barkley redefines the position.  All the great one's do that Sanders, LT, Jerry Rice, Gronk, etc.

[Beerfish]

6 hours ago, long suffering jets fan said:

Been watching him for 2 years.  He completely changes the dynamic of the game.  He has to be accounted for every single play which opens up opportunities all over the field.  He has Barry Sanders moves, but is 30 lbs heavier.  His weight is actually similar to Fournette,  now watch those videos again keeping that in mind and it'll register how special an athlete he is. 

 

88, 47, 56,75,44,63,35,77  games in his senior 'he is the best player in the country' year.

Yeah special.

He is no Barry Sanders who just destroyed all of college football in his last year of college.

He isn't even Ezekiel elliot.

Really good?  Yeah, top back in the draft?  probably but he is not so much better than a host of other good backs that he needs to be elevated into the top 5 or so.

 

[long suffering jets fan]

9 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

88, 47, 56,75,44,63,35,77  games in his senior 'he is the best player in the country' year.

Yeah special.

He is no Barry Sanders who just destroyed all of college football in his last year of college.

He isn't even Ezekiel elliot.

Really good?  Yeah, top back in the draft?  probably but he is not so much better than a host of other good backs that he needs to be elevated into the top 5 or so.

 

When you have to commit 8 people to stopping him it might hurt his stats, but frees up other opportunities all over the field.  Not to mention PSU's OL was nothing to write home about.  In 2016 his stats were much better, but the defenses adjusted.  There's more at play here than just the numbers, that's why he's rated as the #1 overall player in this draft by pretty much every expert.

[Beerfish]

Just now, long suffering jets fan said:

When you have to commit 8 people to stopping him it might hurt his stats, but frees up other opportunities all over the field.  Not to mention PSU's OL was nothing to write home about.  In 2016 his stats were much better, but the defenses adjusted.  There's more at play here than just the numbers, that's why he's rated as the #1 overall player in this draft by pretty much every expert.

You think he is the 1st high end back that has faced a stacked box?  All the top backs face a stacked box,  he just did very little in those games i listed.

Of what i have seen he is super fast and can score long tds, he is a weapon but he was supposed to walk away with the Heisman this year and he didn't produce.  If you think  he is hampered by other teams adjusting to him in college wait till he gets to the pros

[long suffering jets fan]

25 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

88, 47, 56,75,44,63,35,77  games in his senior 'he is the best player in the country' year.

Yeah special.

He is no Barry Sanders who just destroyed all of college football in his last year of college.

He isn't even Ezekiel elliot.

Really good?  Yeah, top back in the draft?  probably but he is not so much better than a host of other good backs that he needs to be elevated into the top 5 or so.

 

After further review, you just picked and chose games that made your case and you didn't include receiving yards.  That changes the story quite a bit.  You need to look at SB's total contribution, not just the games you want, or just the rushing yards.  I think these numbers paint a different more accurate picture.

His total yards per game are as follows:

226, 133, 189, 306, 107, 84, 161, 67, 96, 55, 224, 81, 175

 

[long suffering jets fan]

20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You think he is the 1st high end back that has faced a stacked box?  All the top backs face a stacked box,  he just did very little in those games i listed.

Of what i have seen he is super fast and can score long tds, he is a weapon but he was supposed to walk away with the Heisman this year and he didn't produce.  If you think  he is hampered by other teams adjusting to him in college wait till he gets to the pros

True, he didn't walk away with the Heisman (which is usually given to QBs), but the real prize is where he's drafted and right now he's looking like top 5 and is the #1 rated player in the draft, not according to me, but to virtually every expert.  Those experts took everything into consideration across every player in every position and they felt he was the best player in the draft regardless of position. 

Oh and the Rutgers (35-6) and Maryland (66-3) games were blow outs which also impacted his stats. 

[JustInFudge]

On 2/9/2018 at 10:31 AM, Beerfish said:

For such a 'beast' I cannot get over the totally pedestrian numbers he put up in half his games last year.  I also do not see a Sanders comparison on the out right escape-ability meter.  Barkley scores a lot of long tds because he is so fast, the oppos for that in the pros is less.

Excellent back, top back in the draft but for me the value is not so head and shoulders over other backs in a loaded RB class to pick him at 6 when really great backs will go early 2nd round.

I with you on this one..  However, I do see the point everyone is making about him in the passing game as well.  Honestly, he looks like a better receiver than a pure RB.  As a RB, he's very inconsistent.  That article posted above shows examples of it.  It's not just the fact he disappears, it's how he runs too.  We're talking about taking a RB in the top 5 who will need to be paired with a Goal line/short yardage back because Barkley is ineffective on short yardage situations.

Put it this way; I dont like him anymore or less than any of the top 5 backs that came out last year.  Fournette, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, McCaffery.  I dont see much difference.  And I'm not sure he's the much better than Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny (who had more yards from scrimmage than anyone  in college football).  Penny only had 2 games under 100 yards and he had 5 games over 200, in addition to catching 40 passes on the season.  You can get that in the 2nd round.

In general, I'd never take a RB that high but for sure I wouldnt take Barkley that high.