Draft Tiers - Trade down

[BCJet]

Looking at this draft, it seems like there are the QBs (Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield), 4 elite non-qb prospects, (Barkley, Nelson, Minkah, and Chubb) and then there is little difference between a player who could go 10 or 40.  You look at a pass rusher like Harold Landry, who could be taken at 15 or in the mid second round and it seems like there are a lot of guys like that.

If we sign cousins, taking Nelson would be great, but given the depth at WR, guard/center, RB, and non-elite OLB, wouldn't we be better trading down in order to get a pick to fill additional holes.  Nelson is an amazing prospect, but getting Billy Price and a second round pick seems like a better option to me

[RedBeardedSavage]

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins and the best player at 6 is a guard or a safety (Nelson and Fitzpatrick)

b. if we can't sign Cousins, we can't trade up and all the QB prospects we like are gone by 6

Scenario A I'd be happy with.  Scenario B... well... next years' gonna suck.   

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins and the best player at 6 is a guard or a safety (Nelson and Fitzpatrick)

b. if we can't sign Cousins, we can't trade up and all the QB prospects we like are gone by 6

Scenario A I'd be happy with.  Scenario B... well... next years' gonna suck.   

I don't understand scenario A.  If we sign Cousins and a top prospect QB happens to fall to #6 wouldn't that be the best way to maximize our return in a trade?  I mean personally I'd be really upset if the Jets traded away a top prospect QB but I would think a trade would be the move Macc would make.

[rangerous]

6 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins and the best player at 6 is a guard or a safety (Nelson and Fitzpatrick)

b. if we can't sign Cousins, we can't trade up and all the QB prospects we like are gone by 6

Scenario A I'd be happy with.  Scenario B... well... next years' gonna suck.   

maybe.  just what is scenario B?  drafting a qb at 6?  right now i see two main scenarios.  one has them looking at a long term free agent or even a trade.  the second is drafting a qb high and then having a vet to start the season.  both are viable and also dependent on what unfolds for the free agents and the draft.

[bla bla bla]

If we sign Cousins and are in a position to land one of those 4 elite players then I think we need to do it. I expect Chubb and Barkley will be off the board so that would leave Nelson or Fitz. I'd be fine with either but I would want Nelson at this point since it looks like there will be a plethora of FAs at CB. 

IMO it's only worth reading down if you net a 2019 1st or a 2018 2nd but even then I don't think we are in a position to turn down a generational talent at any of those positions.

[bla bla bla]

8 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins and the best player at 6 is a guard or a safety (Nelson and Fitzpatrick)

b. if we can't sign Cousins, we can't trade up and all the QB prospects we like are gone by 6

Scenario A I'd be happy with.  Scenario B... well... next years' gonna suck.   

I don't think we stay at 6 especially with the Colts expressing that they want to trade back. IMO if we don't land Cousins we need to get that pick, we have more ammo than anyone else in the draft.

[RedBeardedSavage]

7 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't understand scenario A.  If we sign Cousins and a top prospect QB happens to fall to #6 wouldn't that be the best way to maximize our return in a trade?  I mean personally I'd be really upset if the Jets traded away a top prospect QB but I would think a trade would be the move Macc would make.

I think regardless of whether we sign Cousins, Rosen and Darnold are gone before our pick.  If we sign Cousins, I think Mayfield is gone too.  I really can't see the Giants, Browns and Broncos all passing on quarterbacks; especially this year when the class is seemingly this good.  

As for Josh Allen, I don't think he's elite.  But if someone wanted to trade up for him @ 6 after we signed Cousins, sure, I'm willing.  

7 hours ago, rangerous said:

maybe.  just what is scenario B?  drafting a qb at 6?  right now i see two main scenarios.  one has them looking at a long term free agent or even a trade.  the second is drafting a qb high and then having a vet to start the season.  both are viable and also dependent on what unfolds for the free agents and the draft.

I think if we draft a QB, we should go the McCown route for at least the first half of the season.  Just in case the offensive line, or the talent at the skills positions or the offensive coordinator turns out to be terrible, we're not immediately throwing our rookie to the wolves.  

And Scenario B is just the Jets being f***ed.  It means we're not getting a quarterback this year, or worse we're drafting Allen @ 6 or another Hack in round 2.  I don't even want to think about the prospect of that happening right now, because that is unacceptable to me.  If I'm the GM, I'm trading up to ensure that doesn't happen - I'm not getting stuck with the fourth quarterback @ pick 6 overall; a kid from Wyoming who's never completed 60% of his throws.  

5 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't think we stay at 6 especially with the Colts expressing that they want to trade back. IMO if we don't land Cousins we need to get that pick, we have more ammo than anyone else in the draft.

Agree 100%.  I just think we'd be best served by signing Cousins and keeping that ammo.  With three picks in the top 50 and say 60-70 million in cap space after signing Cousins, we could remake this roster.  

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Agree 100%.  I just think we'd be best served by signing Cousins and keeping that ammo.  With three picks in the top 50 and say 60-70 million in cap space after signing Cousins, we could remake this roster.  

Agreed, that is why Cousins would be so huge for this team.

[jamesr]

I don't see anyone wanting to trade up to 6 for a QB ... none of the teams immediately after us are going to take a QB, and even further down there's only an outside chance at best:

TB, Chicago, SF, Oakland, Miami, Cincinnati, Washington, Green Bay

Arizona are the most likely candidates at 15. So I don't see why any team would give up a load of picks to move to 6, to be honest.

[long suffering jets fan]

On 2/11/2018 at 9:02 AM, BCJet said:

Looking at this draft, it seems like there are the QBs (Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield), 4 elite non-qb prospects, (Barkley, Nelson, Minkah, and Chubb) and then there is little difference between a player who could go 10 or 40.  You look at a pass rusher like Harold Landry, who could be taken at 15 or in the mid second round and it seems like there are a lot of guys like that.

If we sign cousins, taking Nelson would be great, but given the depth at WR, guard/center, RB, and non-elite OLB, wouldn't we be better trading down in order to get a pick to fill additional holes.  Nelson is an amazing prospect, but getting Billy Price and a second round pick seems like a better option to me

I don't know, we could have Nelson and still have two solid second round picks, or trade up for an additional 1st rounder.  You put Cousins, Nelson and Jensen in the mix and your offense improves immediately and with $70M left over for free agents and 8 more picks we can fix alot of things. 

[Villain The Foe]

On 2/11/2018 at 9:02 AM, BCJet said:

Looking at this draft, it seems like there are the QBs (Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield), 4 elite non-qb prospects, (Barkley, Nelson, Minkah, and Chubb) and then there is little difference between a player who could go 10 or 40.  You look at a pass rusher like Harold Landry, who could be taken at 15 or in the mid second round and it seems like there are a lot of guys like that.

If we sign cousins, taking Nelson would be great, but given the depth at WR, guard/center, RB, and non-elite OLB, wouldn't we be better trading down in order to get a pick to fill additional holes.  Nelson is an amazing prospect, but getting Billy Price and a second round pick seems like a better option to me

Getting tired of continuously seeing Josh Allen's name and Lamar Jackson's not there. Im a huge Mayfield fan but Jackson has the potential to be the best player in this draft, not just at qb. 

Josh Allen has a cannon and that it positively it. This is the perfect example of when media can hype a guy. This guys production on the field does not warrant this, seriously doesn't. 

Just had to get that off my chest. 

 

I do agree with the trade down and building the offensive line. 100% agree. Josh Allen should not be in the same conversation nor should he be compared to Carson Wentz. 

[Paradis]

On 2/11/2018 at 9:16 PM, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins 

Fck i can't wait for this FA things to be over. Every thread get sucked into the Cousins anal-vortex

[nycdan]

If we sign Cousins, and one of the top QB prospects is there at 6, and we DON'T trade down only to watch the next team in line trade down for a bounty, then I will be really annoyed.  We get Fitzpatrick while TB gets a 1st, a 2nd and a future 3rd from ARI or CIN.  

***vomit***

[bla bla bla]

On 2/20/2018 at 7:19 PM, nycdan said:

If we sign Cousins, and one of the top QB prospects is there at 6, and we DON'T trade down only to watch the next team in line trade down for a bounty, then I will be really annoyed.  We get Fitzpatrick while TB gets a 1st, a 2nd and a future 3rd from ARI or CIN.  

***vomit***

Agreed we should absolutely be trading down but I'm not sure we'd get that much because there are like 5-6 teams that would also want to trade down behind us. The first team possibly looking for a QB would be the Bengals or Redskins at picks 12 and 13 so I'm not sure teams would have to give up that much. My guess would be it would only take a 1st rounder to jump up in the 6-11 range.

[jamesr]

On 2/19/2018 at 9:05 PM, Paradis said:

Fck i can't wait for this FA things to be over. Every thread get sucked into the Cousins anal-vortex

And you think that'll stop once he signs somewhere? 

[jamesr]

On 2/21/2018 at 12:19 AM, nycdan said:

If we sign Cousins, and one of the top QB prospects is there at 6, and we DON'T trade down only to watch the next team in line trade down for a bounty, then I will be really annoyed.  We get Fitzpatrick while TB gets a 1st, a 2nd and a future 3rd from ARI or CIN.  

***vomit***

Who would a team like Arizona or Cincy be jumping by trading up? After 5 & 6, there are no QB needy teams until Arizona at 15.

TB, Chicago, San Fran, Oakland - no chance

Miami, Cincy, Washington - very unlikely IMHO

GB - no chance

Arizona - absolutely

[nycdan]

7 hours ago, jamesr said:

Who would a team like Arizona or Cincy be jumping by trading up? After 5 & 6, there are no QB needy teams until Arizona at 15.

TB, Chicago, San Fran, Oakland - no chance

Miami, Cincy, Washington - very unlikely IMHO

GB - no chance

Arizona - absolutely

IF they want the QB, and there is more than one team vying for whoever is left, then someone will trade up.  BUF at 21/22 will probably be looking to trade up and certainly knows they have to get in front of ARI.  ARI knows that and will look to trade up to secure their guy.  They can't wait until their pick and expect him to be there.  If enough teams are interested, and the drop-off is significant, one will trade up.  The only question is how far.

 

Last year both HOU and KC moved up to get their guys.  This isn't a stretch.

[Pcola]

Looking the the Jets history, they have only traded down in the first round twice going back to at least 1989.  Parcels in 1997 and again in 2005.  Both were disasters IMO.  We got Farrior and a bunch of Jags for HOF Orlando Pace and then traded out of the first round to draft a Jag kicker.

Chances are that we won’t be trading down in the first.  With that assumption, we HAVE to take a premium position at 6.  We have already taken a run stuffing DE and a Safety that are going to cost us around $14M for their 5 year options.

As good as Nelson is, how would we manage the cap with Cousins $30M+ and expect to keep Williams, Adams, and Nelson long term?  We still would have to find and pay a pass rusher, CB1, and a playmaker on both sides of the ball.

If we are stuck at 6 (and have signed Cousins,) we need to take either Chubb, Barkley, and or as a last resort Minkah Fitzpatrick.

If anything, having Fitz II along with Adams and Maye, maybe our ex-DB HC can manage to field a competent secondary.

[Thai Jet]

On 2/12/2018 at 12:16 AM, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'd only trade down:

a. if we signed Cousins and the best player at 6 is a guard or a safety (Nelson and Fitzpatrick)

b. if we can't sign Cousins, we can't trade up and all the QB prospects we like are gone by 6

Scenario A I'd be happy with.  Scenario B... well... next years' gonna suck.   

Agreed ! What a nightmare..... at #6 no Cousins and all 4 QB's are gone. Then I gotta thing you trade down.

[Thai Jet]

On 2/12/2018 at 2:12 PM, jamesr said:

I don't see anyone wanting to trade up to 6 for a QB ... none of the teams immediately after us are going to take a QB, and even further down there's only an outside chance at best:

TB, Chicago, SF, Oakland, Miami, Cincinnati, Washington, Green Bay

Arizona are the most likely candidates at 15. So I don't see why any team would give up a load of picks to move to 6, to be honest.

Out here in Buffalo there's plenty of buzz about moving up ( 14th? just ahead of the Cards ) and grabbing a QB if one they like is still on the board.

[jamesr]

10 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

Out here in Buffalo there's plenty of buzz about moving up ( 14th? just ahead of the Cards ) and grabbing a QB if one they like is still on the board.

I can well believe it ... their playoff run has left them in no-mans land somewhat; they don't trust the guy they have and are far away from drafting one of the top guys. FA may be a better option but I don't know what their cap situation is like.

[Thai Jet]

25 minutes ago, jamesr said:

I can well believe it ... their playoff run has left them in no-mans land somewhat; they don't trust the guy they have and are far away from drafting one of the top guys. FA may be a better option but I don't know what their cap situation is like.

Not sure of their cap space but I'm thinking around $38 mil as of now. They are thinking of now trading TyRod to get "something" in return. He's due a $5 mil bonus but they'll gladly pay it so he's under their control.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, Thai Jet said:

Not sure of their cap space but I'm thinking around $38 mil as of now. They are thinking of now trading TyRod to get "something" in return. He's due a $5 mil bonus but they'll gladly pay it so he's under their control.

They are just under $30 mil in cap space -- trading Tyrod would give them about $16 more, I think, cutting him frees up $5MM.  But, they have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds -- they can be very aggressive in the draft to move up for a QB and still have plenty of picks to add other talent.

Edit: 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.  Forgot they traded a 3rd for Benjamin.

 

[jamesr]

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

They are just under $30 mil in cap space -- trading Tyrod would give them about $16 more, I think, cutting him frees up $5MM.  But, they have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds -- they can be very aggressive in the draft to move up for a QB and still have plenty of picks to add other talent.

In that case I reckon they'll really try to go the FA route first and foremost. 

[Thai Jet]

11 minutes ago, Lith said:

They are just under $30 mil in cap space -- trading Tyrod would give them about $16 more, I think, cutting him frees up $5MM.  But, they have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds -- they can be very aggressive in the draft to move up for a QB and still have plenty of picks to add other talent.

They do NOT want to enter the season with Tyrod as their QB. I can see them moving up to grab one unless they nail someone ( Bradford?) as a FA.

Rumors that McCoy may be let go to free up cap space too.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

The Jets almost never trade down with the first pick and when they do it's an abject calamity. The last time it happened was Nugent. The time before that, Pace and Walter Jones. Every year with this stuff.

[jetstream23]

On 2/25/2018 at 1:46 PM, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

The Jets almost never trade down with the first pick and when they do it's an abject calamity. The last time it happened was Nugent. The time before that, Pace and Walter Jones. Every year with this stuff.

But hey, James Farrior turned out to be a great LB......for the Steelers!  Thanks Parcells.  

[jetstream23]

Wouldn't mind if the Jets landed Cousins in FA, used #6 to finally get a true pass-rusher in Chubb, and then came back in Round 2 with two picks on offense - RB and OLine.  That would be an excellent offseason IMO.

[j4jets]

On 2/12/2018 at 5:59 AM, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't understand scenario A.  If we sign Cousins and a top prospect QB happens to fall to #6 wouldn't that be the best way to maximize our return in a trade?  I mean personally I'd be really upset if the Jets traded away a top prospect QB but I would think a trade would be the move Macc would make.

Think Leo. Could’ve held a few teams hostage when Leo fell to 6th. Not exactly the same thing as a top QB but the top prospect overall nonetheless. Should’ve traded down that year. We didn’t and we probably won’t do it this year. 

[Thai Jet]

On 2/12/2018 at 11:55 AM, bla bla bla said:

Agreed, that is why Cousins would be so huge for this team.

Exactly. Let's pray the QB issue is settled come draft time.