Cousins or a Trade Up - What's the Real Trade Off?

[Doggin94it]

At this point, the Jets have two QB options ahead of them: Sign Kirk Cousins to a free agent megadeal worth 30M+ per season, or trade up from 6 to 3 to ensure they get one of the top 3 QBs in the draft.  To assess that, you need to consider not just the QBs - but also what else you could do with that 30M if you choose to draft a QB, and what else you'd do with the picks if you signed Cousins.  Based on the draft value chart, they would need to send Indy 600 points in value to make up the difference between 6 and 3.  They can do that by, for example, dealing 6, 37 (2nd) and 103 (4th) for 3 + 168 (6th), or 6 + 49 (2nd) + Next year's 2d round pick for 3.  

So here's what we're looking at (just picking some available names for purposes of comparison):

Mayfield (at 3) + LeVeon Bell (at 14M per) + DeMarcus Lawrence (at 17M per)

vs.

Cousins + Orlando Brown at 6 (OT, starts year at LG), Chubb (37),  Tyquan Lewis (103)

Which do you prefer?

 

[usanyj]

bell literally wants 100 mil to come here.  he wont be a part of the team.

[MDL_JET]

What will it take to get the Giants pick? Because that's where I'm aiming. Darnold or Rosen. Time for Mac to make big boy moves.

[Beerfish]

If Darnold or Rosen are there at 3 trade up but otherwise forget it.

Unfortunately we cannot look at it that way as FA starts 1st of all so we have to make the decision on cousins before knowing who will be there on draft day.

I think the jets will make a strong push  for cousins but not sure if they will get him.

[Gas2No99]

F*Ck Cousins, Bell and any OTHER FA w/ his Team-crippling salary demands. 

[Obrien2Toon]

The one that’s not giving a mega, long term contract to a back who already has over 1,500 touches on his body

[#27TheDominator]

9 minutes ago, usanyj said:

bell literally wants 100 mil to come here.  he wont be a part of the team.

I can understand all you guys saying you don't want/won't get Bell, but just plug another $14M in FA contracts in there. That is the point.  What would you do with the money vs. what you would do with the picks?  

5 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

F*Ck Cousins, Bell and any OTHER FA w/ his Team-crippling salary demands. 

Yes, much better to have a roster devoid of any players with Team-crippling salary demands.  Our roster is already crippled, why add players that have performed well in the NFL.

[Untouchable]

Bell and Lawrence aren’t going anywhere.

What I would ultimately prefer is something like this...

Cousins, Butler, Landry/Robinson, Jensen in FA + Nelson at #6, Michel at #37 and a passrusher like Nwosu, Armstrong, etc at #49.

[usanyj]

9 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

What will it take to get the Giants pick? Because that's where I'm aiming. Darnold or Rosen. Time for Mac to make big boy moves.

do we honestly believe the giants would trade the number 2 pick to their in house little brother?  I'd love for it to happen, but just think, if they do trade it to the jets and they hit on rosen or darnold, giant fans would want the heads of ownership for gift wrapping a franchise qb to the jets, all while watching their qb fade at an older age.  

[shuler82]

We all know neither of these two scenarios are happening. 

Its either

McCown + 4th best QB @ 6 (who sits the entire year)

or

Keenan/Bridgewater/McCaron + defense @6 and a flier in the 3rd or 4th on a QB

[MDL_JET]

Just now, usanyj said:

do we honestly believe the giants would trade the number 2 pick to their in house little brother?  I'd love for it to happen, but just think, if they do trade it to the jets and they hit on rosen or darnold, giant fans would want the heads of ownership for gift wrapping a franchise qb to the jets, all while watching their qb fade at an older age.  

No idea what the relationships are between the teams. But fine, trade up to #1 then. I don't want the 3rd best dammit. 

[Warfish]

19 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

At this point, the Jets have two QB options ahead of them: Sign Kirk Cousins to a free agent megadeal worth 30M+ per season, or trade up from 6 to 3 to ensure they get one of the top 3 QBs in the draft.  To assess that, you need to consider not just the QBs - but also what else you could do with that 30M if you choose to draft a QB, and what else you'd do with the picks if you signed Cousins.  Based on the draft value chart, they would need to send Indy 600 points in value to make up the difference between 6 and 3.  They can do that by, for example, dealing 6, 37 (2nd) and 103 (4th) for 3 + 168 (6th), or 6 + 49 (2nd) + Next year's 2d round pick for 3.  

So here's what we're looking at (just picking some available names for purposes of comparison):

Mayfield (at 3) + LeVeon Bell (at 14M per) + DeMarcus Lawrence (at 17M per)

vs.

Cousins + Orlando Brown at 6 (OT, starts year at LG), Chubb (37),  Tyquan Lewis (103)

Which do you prefer?

 

We have alot more than two options.  This is a false narrative to start with and so a deeply flawed question.

In point of fact, we neither have to sign Cousins nor trade up.

[MDL_JET]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We have alot more than two options.  This is a false narrative to start with and so a deeply flawed question.

In point of fact, we neither have to sign Cousins nor trade up.

Say Cousins go to a team outside the top 10. 

We sit back and watch what unfolds up until 6? 

[ChuckkieB]

10 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

We all know neither of these two scenarios are happening. 

Its either

McCown + 4th best QB @ 6 (who sits the entire year)

or

Keenan/Bridgewater/McCaron + defense @6 and a flier in the 3rd or 4th on a QB

While my inner Jets fan keeps whispering to me that your second option is going to happen, I really don't think Mac has any choice at this point to either draft a QB at #6 (or even trade up to get one) or sign Cousins to a mega deal.  By neglecting the QB for 3 years, he's boxed himself in to either injecting some life into the franchise by drafting a QB in the first round or signing a top level FA QB. I just don't see how he can put his job on the line with another middle of the road or worse QB.

[Gas2No99]

17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I can understand all you guys saying you don't want/won't get Bell, but just plug another $14M in FA contracts in there. That is the point.  What would you do with the money vs. what you would do with the picks?  

Draft and BUILD depth with the picks! Extend your young players w/2-3 year extensions w/$$ loaded upfront.

breaking the bank for a 5 year + veteran ,RB in FA is counter-productive and asinine. 

 

Quote

Yes, much better to have a roster devoid of any players with Team-crippling salary demands.  Our roster is already crippled, why add players that have performed well in the NFL.

Leo Williams and Marcus Maye (can be extended in '19, if continues to progress) will be due a pay day within 2 years.

To say this Roster is "already crippled" are the ramblings of a senile SOJF showing signs of dementia. The High Priced FA method DOES NOT WORK in building a solid contender (recall '93-'96 and '08-'10) and only saddles the team w/Cap debt which results in a NFL roster gutting & reckoning which resulted in the 2011-2017 season. 

 

Whigga PLEASZE!!!  

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Say Cousins go to a team outside the top 10. 

We sit back and watch what unfolds up until 6? 

Another false narrative.  The issue of Jets QB could have already been addressed by that point in a number of varying ways.

But yes, the Jets COULD choose to sit and "see what unfolds" until pick #6.  There is nothing guaranteeing the Jets are even considering drafting a QB in round #1 this year, despite fan claims that they are.

 

[David Harris]

I want Cousins,Rosen or Darnold- any of them.

 

at this point cousins is more of a sure thing bc we can just throw money at him. Plus he’s a safer bet than rookies. So yeah I want cousins at this point. In a perfect world we’d know how to tank and have the number one pick but the jets fd it up once again

[isired]

Jets could also sit back and wait to see what happens at 3. After 3, if there are only 2 QBs off the board, meaning 2 of the top 4 remaining, and they like only 1 of the 2, they might consider a jump to 4.

 

Or maybe they love Rudolph or soneone out of the top 4 and find a trade partner that allows them to stock some picks and still get their QB.

 

There are literally a dozen or more scenarios.

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, David Harris said:

I want Cousins,Rosen or Darnold- any of them.

 

at this point cousins is more of a sure thing bc we can just throw money at him. Plus he’s a safer bet than rookies. So yeah I want cousins at this point. In a perfect world we’d know how to tank and have the number one pick but the jets fd it up once again

You're not going to get any of them, so you may want to adjust your expectations.

And we did go all-in on the tank, signing McCown, the worst starting QB in the NFL, and gutting our rosters of veterans, was as clear-cut a tank job as was humanly possible by any reasonable General Manager.  Best laid plans and all that, sometimes things simply don't work out, and clearly no one can out-tank the Browns, and no one expected the Giants and Colts (who presumably were going to have Luck back) to be as bad as they were. 

The whole "Why didn't we tank" is yet another false narrative here, be assured, we tanked as hard as a team can get away with in this league.  What else did you want them to do?

[bla bla bla]

You also need to consider that lots of teams have money and probability of us landing all big time FAs with the money that would have been allocated to Cousins is pretty slim. Cousins immediately upgrades this roster more than any player or players his $30M could attract especially players who weren't enticed enough to come here because of the $70M we already would have been able to offer.

Look at it like this:

Pretend we have $70M to play with and no QB, how many big FAs come here?

now ask:

If we have $111M to play with and no QB, how many big FAs come here?

If the difference is 1-2 players then maybe you have a point but I don't think there are enough top FAs to go around to all the NFL teams let alone 1 team signing a plethora of them.

[#27TheDominator]

12 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Draft and BUILD depth with the picks! Extend your young players w/2-3 year extensions w/$$ loaded upfront.

breaking the bank for a 5 year + veteran ,RB in FA is counter-productive and asinine. 

 

Leo Williams and Marcus Maye (can be extended in '19, if continues to progress) will be due a pay day within 2 years.

To say this Roster is "already crippled" are the ramblings of a senile SOJF showing signs of dementia. The High Priced FA method DOES NOT WORK in building a solid contender (recall '93-'96 and '08-'10) and only saddles the team w/Cap debt which results in a NFL roster gutting & reckoning which resulted in the 2011-2017 season. 

 

Whigga PLEASZE!!!  

Seriously?

The roster sucks.  Not being impressed with 5-11 doesn't make me a senile SOJF.  It makes me somone capable of reading the W-L column.  Perhaps, if you believe that bringing in FA DOES NOT WORK then HAVING A TON OF CAP SPACE is not for you.  We have it.  Why did we get it, if we aren't going to use it?  To resign the Brandon Shell's and Juston Burris' of the world?  They already gave Winters a DeCastro-esque extension.

The GM has shown no inclination to extend anybody before the last possible second.  Now you have him extending Williams, under contract this season with a team option for 2019 and Maye who is signed through 2020?  Off of one slightly above average season?  Even assuming they do this, that will  burn up, at most, $20M of their $75-100M in cap space.  What are you going to do with the other $55-80M?  I can understand the idea that they should look for lower priced up-and-coming FAs, but the idea that they should spend that money extending guys on this roster is laughable. 

[sourceworx]

Draft this guy at #6. 

[HessStation]

I want Norwell and Jensen and draft a QB at 6, and a RB and TE in the second round. 

 

The defense can piss off for a year. If anything, sign either Lawrence or Ansah. 

[Mike135]

Ideally we wouldn't have ruined the tank.  We wouldn't have much of a worry now.

Now though, just draft the best QB that falls to us at 6.  Then use the 100mil and rest of the draft to build a massive offensive line wall that would make China n MAGA jealous.

[Doggin94it]

50 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I can understand all you guys saying you don't want/won't get Bell, but just plug another $14M in FA contracts in there. That is the point.  What would you do with the money vs. what you would do with the picks?  

Yes, much better to have a roster devoid of any players with Team-crippling salary demands.  Our roster is already crippled, why add players that have performed well in the NFL.

Thank you. Somebody gets it.

49 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Bell and Lawrence aren’t going anywhere.

What I would ultimately prefer is something like this...

Cousins, Butler, Landry/Robinson, Jensen in FA + Nelson at #6, Michel at #37 and a passrusher like Nwosu, Armstrong, etc at #49.

Yeah, I don't know about either of those specifically; the point was what could be done with 30M you need to allocate for Cousins.

To me, it breaks down like this: the FA signees are the sure(r) bets, the draftees the more risky propositions with potentially greater upside.  Do you want certainty and more limited upside at the QB position, to go with more uncertainty at the positions you'd otherwise use that money to sign FAs at?  Or are you willing to take uncertainty + upside at the QB position to pay for top tier players at the other positions?  It's a really interesting roster philosophy question (to me at least), especially because you're talking about spending the same money on one non-elite player at the league's most important position vs. two elite players at less important positions.

Given what I've seen and heard of the top 3 QBs in this draft, if I could guarantee I'd get to 3 (even at the cost of picks it would take) I probably choose to draft the QB and spend on other FAs, but it's a close call.

43 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We have alot more than two options.  This is a false narrative to start with and so a deeply flawed question.

In point of fact, we neither have to sign Cousins nor trade up.

Assuming the Jets would be happy with one of the top 3 QBs in the draft, but not the 4th QB (whoever that is in their ranking), this is superficially true but actually wrong.  Because the Cousins FA is a decision point.  You either need to toss boatloads of money at him to make him your QB, or decide to go another direction, and you need to make that decision before you have a chance to see how the draft plays out.

Could the Jets opt to leave the QB position to chance, not trade up and not sign Cousins?  Sure.  But that would be an incredibly stupid choice for a franchise that desperately needs stability and competence at the QB position.  If they're passing on Cousins, it better be with a plan to go get a QB they love in the draft.

[RutgersJetFan]

5 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

...the Cousins FA is a decision point.  You either need to toss boatloads of money at him to make him your QB, or decide to go another direction, and you need to make that decision before you have a chance to see how the draft plays out.

This is why I have always thought the NFL does things in the wrong order. The draft should be before free agency. Decisions that teams have to make with costly free agents, like the one the Jets have to make on Cousins, would be so much easier.

[Doggin94it]

Just now, RutgersJetFan said:

This is why I have always thought the NFL does things in the wrong order. The draft should be before free agency. Decisions that teams have to make with costly free agents, like the one the Jets have to make on Cousins, would be so much easier.

Yep.  It's also why the Players Association would never agree to it in a million years.

[ChuckkieB]

17 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Could the Jets opt to leave the QB position to chance, not trade up and not sign Cousins?  Sure.  But that would be an incredibly stupid choice for a franchise that desperately needs stability and competence at the QB position.  If they're passing on Cousins, it better be with a plan to go get a QB they love in the draft.

This is exactly right.  If Cousins signs elsewhere, the Jets need to do whatever is necessary to get the QB they like the most in the draft.

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

Say Cousins go to a team outside the top 10. 

We sit back and watch what unfolds up until 6? 

right now cousins is the prettiest girl at the dance but there are others who may not be so pretty but equally or even more capable.   the same goes for the draft.  darnold and rosen are also very pretty but we have also seen quite a few lower round qb's make it.  and right now a third rounder is the highest paid qb in the league.

i'm not saying we should sit back but there are other options besides cousins and they need to be considered.  and those options may include a trade.

[Augustiniak]

i think a lot depends on what they think of mayfield and allen.  and they need to figure this out sooner than later.

if the jets would be happy to groom any of the top 4 qbs and not have to trade up, they may go after cousins but not go balls out for him.

if the jets decide in early march that rosen and darnold are really, really much better than allen and mayfield, or if they think allen could be good in a few years but could also hackenberg, then they probably go balls out for cousins.

 

[MDL_JET]

14 minutes ago, rangerous said:

right now cousins is the prettiest girl at the dance but there are others who may not be so pretty but equally or even more capable.   the same goes for the draft.  darnold and rosen are also very pretty but we have also seen quite a few lower round qb's make it.  and right now a third rounder is the highest paid qb in the league.

i'm not saying we should sit back but there are other options besides cousins and they need to be considered.  and those options may include a trade.

Mac isn't in position to wait and see what falls or to try again with a later round pick. He tried with Petty and Hack and so far, failed. 

He needs a polished prospect who can start right away or Cousins who can give long term comfort. Keenum maybe can do that too.

[JiFtheOracle]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

At this point, the Jets have two QB options ahead of them: Sign Kirk Cousins to a free agent megadeal worth 30M+ per season, or trade up from 6 to 3 to ensure they get one of the top 3 QBs in the draft.  To assess that, you need to consider not just the QBs - but also what else you could do with that 30M if you choose to draft a QB, and what else you'd do with the picks if you signed Cousins.  Based on the draft value chart, they would need to send Indy 600 points in value to make up the difference between 6 and 3.  They can do that by, for example, dealing 6, 37 (2nd) and 103 (4th) for 3 + 168 (6th), or 6 + 49 (2nd) + Next year's 2d round pick for 3.  

So here's what we're looking at (just picking some available names for purposes of comparison):

Mayfield (at 3) + LeVeon Bell (at 14M per) + DeMarcus Lawrence (at 17M per)

vs.

Cousins + Orlando Brown at 6 (OT, starts year at LG), Chubb (37),  Tyquan Lewis (103)

Which do you prefer?

 

Hell no to option one and I dont like your draft in option 2 but I'd still perfer it.

Mayfield in general scares me, at 6 he scares the hell out of me, trading up for him would possibly make me pass out.  Although he's going to be an entertaining ride one way or the other.  Lawrence strikes me as a guy who will never crack 10+ sacks again, buyer beware.  RB isnt worth that type of investment, even as amazing as Bell is as a player, you can find RB's anywhere in the draft and there are a few interesting ones out there this year.  Overall, I just dont like the idea of a team as talent deprived as the Jets giving up that much for an underwhelming QB prospect, which is everyone not named Rosen.

 

 

[DoubleDown]

I don't trust Mac's evaluation of the quarterback position at all.  Three drafts, five draft picks used on the quarterback position, and the team doesn't even have a third stringer to show for it.  The last thing we need is Mac falling in love with the next Hackenberg.

Go for the sure thing, spend the money on Cousins, and make this team competitive for the next 5-7 years.  Use some major capital to shore up the offensive line.  Give Cousins some time, and he can sling it with the best of them.  Enough with the pie in the sky hopes and dreams on an unknown rookie that never work out for this team.

[BrickTamland]

Looking down the road: the ~24-26 mil we can be spending on cousins come 2020 makes this such a dumb question. Theres no such thing as "is this too much money." the question is, is he a starting qb. because ~24-26 mil in 2020 is cheap for a starting qb in 2020. 

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, BrickTamland said:

Looking down the road: the ~24-26 mil we can be spending on cousins come 2020 makes this such a dumb question. Theres no such thing as "is this too much money." the question is, is he a starting qb. because ~24-26 mil in 2020 is cheap for a starting qb in 2020. 

Unfortunately, ~24-26 mil is also considerably less than Cousins will be getting.