Kiper's BIG Board

[prime21]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22455315/mel-kiper-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-top-25-prospects-ranking-position-position-top-10s

We're without football now until training camps begin in late July. But that means it's NFL draft season. I've released my first Mock Draft before the Senior Bowl, and version 2.0 will be out next week.

Below is my updated Big Board (ranking of the top 25 prospects for the Class of 2018) and position rankings (my top 10 prospects for the 2018 Class at every position).

A reminder about my Big Board:

• I'm projecting to the NFL. This is about much more than stats. My projections are based on size, athletic ability, statistics and what I hear from people around the league.

• Speaking of size, what's listed here is provided by the schools in most cases, unless they were at the Senior Bowl. These numbers could vary greatly when players show up at the NFL combine. True height and weight matter a lot for almost every position.

Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore for the 2017 season.

Click here to go to the position rankings, which are listed after the Big Board.

Quick links: Kiper's Mock 1.0 | McShay's Mock 1.0 | First-round order

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1. *Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Previous rank: 1

Barkley is a lights-out athlete with tremendous balance, a great lower body and quick feet. He's a stellar runner -- both inside and outside the tackles -- and he showed in 2017 that he's a true three-down back. He had 54 catches after having 48 combined in his first two seasons at Penn State. I think Barkley will run under a 4.4 40-yard dash and test well at the combine at 5-foot-11, 230 pounds. Is he likely to go No. 1 overall in April? Probably not. But he could be a top-five pick, and he has an elite grade from me.

 

2. *Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

Previous rank: 3

Fitzpatrick (6-1, 203) has played corner and safety at Alabama, and he could play either position at the next level. The versatility is a huge plus. Fitzpatrick is really a defensive coordinator's dream: a modern-day big corner who plays safety. He's versatile enough to line up in the slot and lock down receivers, but he also can be a center fielder. Fitzpatrick had nine career interceptions (including four that were returned for touchdowns), so he has elite ball skills. He isn't afraid to make a tackle, either, which is why I think he'll be a top-five pick in April.

3. Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

Previous rank: 2

Chubb could have entered the 2017 draft and been in the first-round discussion. He was dominant early in the season against Florida State with two sacks and a forced fumble. At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he shows good takeoff from the edge as a pass-rusher, and he has an excellent mix of speed and power. Chubb had 10 sacks and 25 tackles for loss (tied for second in the FBS) in 2017 and had 10 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season. He is the top-ranked pass-rusher in this class, and it's not close at this point.

4. *Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 8

Nelson and Mike McGlinchey formed the best left side of an O-line in college football. Both could be top-15 picks. At 6-foot-5, 330 pounds, Nelson causes destruction in the interior. I wrote last year that he was entertaining to watch, and you just don't say that about guards. He is a dominant run-blocker who is powerful at the point of attack and athletic enough to pull and get into space.

5. *Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Previous rank: 4

Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. There's a reason he went No. 1 in my Mock Draft 1.0. He got better every day at Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, Alabama, where he was on the same team as Baker Mayfield. His numbers weren't great in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56 percent of his passes), and his numbers weren't great in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56.3 percent of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from last season's team, along with its center. I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players. He put some strong film together in the Cowboys' bowl win, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from a shoulder injury.

6. **Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California

Previous rank: 6

Darnold played better down the stretch, but he had an up-and-down season. He finished with 13 interceptions and nine lost fumbles. His 22 turnovers were tied for most in the FBS. He had an outstanding 2016 season but didn't match it, which makes his evaluation difficult. Now, I think Darnold has a chance to be special, and I believe in his talent long-term. Darnold has a big frame (6-4, 225), makes quick decisions and is an accurate, natural passer. He completed 67.2 percent of his passes last season and ranked second in the nation in Total QBR (86.8), but he finished at 63.1 percent and 74.6 in 2017.

7. *Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Previous rank: 5

Coming off a stellar freshman season in 2015, Rosen struggled in 2016 and made only six starts before injuring his shoulder. He had a great start to the 2017 season and finished with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He missed a game because of a concussion late in the season, however, and was pulled in the second half of UCLA's win over Cal "for precautionary reasons" after taking a few big hits and was held out of the Bruins' bowl game. The 6-foot-4, 218-pounder throws a great ball and has rare arm talent. There aren't many quarterbacks who can make the throws he does. He went No. 2 overall in my first Mock Draft. The combine is an important step to see how he performs against the other top guys.

 

play

8. *Tremaine Edmunds, OLB, Virginia Tech

Previous rank: 10

At 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, Edmunds is a gifted athlete and physical specimen, and he lives in the backfield. A year after recording 106 total tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, he had 109 total tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks this season. Edmunds isn't a traditional linebacker; he could play inside in a pinch and disrupt some throwing lanes, and he also could play outside and pressure quarterbacks. He even does a good job covering pass-catchers out of the backfield. He's an impressive athlete, and you could make a case that Edmunds has the most upside of any linebacker in this class. Check out the recognition to get to the quarterback in the video clip above.

9. *Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

Previous rank: 7

At 6-foot-1, 225, Smith is an extremely athletic linebacker. He can get sideline to sideline in a hurry. A season after having 95 total tackles and five tackles for loss, Smith had 137 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 2017. He can blitz up the middle or off the edge, and I think he could play inside or outside linebacker. He's just a fun player to watch, and he was one of the best players on the field in both of the Bulldogs' College Football Playoff matchups. He's not a huge linebacker, and I want to see what he measures in at the combine in Indianapolis.

10. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Previous rank: 13

As I wrote in December, Mayfield is one of the most difficult evaluations in this class. I love him on the field -- he's not afraid to take shots downfield, has an underrated arm, and he has won a ton of games. He measured in a 6-foot-0 at the Senior Bowl, and there isn't much history of 6-0 quarterbacks having success in the NFL. Is Mayfield a similar athlete to Russell Wilson? No, he's not. That's why it's important for Mayfield to get in front of scouts and interview, like he did at the Senior Bowl. And he'll get the opportunity again at the combine. The Heisman Trophy winner put up huge numbers the past three seasons, and he completed better than 70 percent of his passes since the beginning of the 2016 season. He had 83 touchdown passes and only 14 interceptions over that span.

11. *Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Previous rank: 9

I said before the season that I think Ward has a chance to be the next great Ohio State cover corner and first-round pick. He's polished. He didn't have an interception last season, but he plays the ball well and showed good instincts in coverage, as proved by his nine pass breakups. He had two interceptions this season, as well as 15 more pass breakups. Listed at 5-foot-10, 191 pounds, Ward plays bigger than that. I really liked what I saw on his 2016 tape, even as the Buckeyes had two other corners who went in the first round of the 2017 draft. He has a good chance to be the top corner picked in 2018, as Ohio State's Marshon Lattimore was in 2017.

12. Marcus Davenport, DE, UT San Antonio

Previous rank: 15

Scouts have been buzzing about Davenport, and it didn't stop after Senior Bowl practices. He's one of the best pure pass-rushers in this class, even if he hasn't developed an arsenal of moves yet. At 6-foot-6, 259 pounds, Davenport is a quick-twitch athlete who can play on his feet or with his hand in the dirt. He had 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss this season, and he had 6.5 sacks in 2016.

13. *Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

Previous rank: 25

Miller reminds me of Patriots left tackle Nate Solder, who went in the middle of the first round in 2011. They both have huge 6-foot-8 frames, and they have great feet. Miller was an under-the-radar prospect coming into the season because of a foot injury that forced him to miss most of 2016. But he came into his own this season, and he has a high ceiling. This offensive tackle class is fluid, and Miller has moved atop my board.

14. *Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Previous rank: 12

Ridley is the 2018 draft's clear No. 1 receiver right now. What I really like about him is his competitiveness. He's a nightmare to try to tackle in the open field. Ridley (6-foot-1, 188 pounds) had 63 catches for 967 yards and five touchdowns in 2017, including touchdowns in both of the Crimson Tide's College Football Playoff games. He averaged 15.3 yards per catch with inconsistent quarterback play. He has been one of the nation's top wide receivers since he stepped onto the field as a freshman in 2015 -- he had 161 catches and 14 touchdown receptions in his first two collegiate seasons.

15. *Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

Previous rank: 20

Jackson was the best corner in college football in 2017, and he showed it by picking off Ohio State's J.T. Barrett three times in an upset win. He was phenomenal and showed off stellar hands. Jackson had eight total interceptions and broke up 18 passes in 2017, his first season as a starter. The 6-foot-1, 185-pounder has also pitched in on punt returns, though he didn't break off any big returns.

16. *Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

Previous rank: NR

I wrote about Brown earlier in the 2017 season, when the 6-foot-8, 345-pound left tackle was outstanding in the Sooners' win at Ohio State. He helped protect OU quarterback Baker Mayfield from a defense that is loaded with future NFL talent. Brown is nimble for a big man, getting to the second level with ease. He has great feet and can easily slide outside to pick up blitzing linebackers. Brown might have to move over to the right side at the next level, but I think he'll get a shot at left tackle to start his career.

17. *Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

Previous rank: 14

Finally healthy after being hampered by a groin injury, Evans stood out on a defense loaded with NFL talent. He played outside early in his career at Alabama, and the versatility will help at the next level. Evans (6-foot-3, 234 pounds) also can rush the passer; he had 15 career sacks. He finished the 2017 season with 13 tackles for loss, too. The Crimson Tide have a long history of producing talented linebackers, including Reuben Foster in the 2017 draft, and Evans is next up.

18. **Derwin James, S, Florida State

Previous rank: 11

James is a tough evaluation because he just hasn't played many games. The former five-star recruit was terrific as a freshman for the Seminoles in 2015, with 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. But he played only two games in 2016 after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee. The 6-foot-3, 211-pounder came back healthy in 2017 and finished with two interceptions, 11 pass breakups and 84 total tackles. James just doesn't have much tape, and scouts want to see how he tests at the combine.

19. *Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Previous rank: 22

Hughes emerged as a shutdown corner in his lone season at Central Florida, showing good anticipation in coverage and playing the run well, too. At 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, Hughes has good size, and he's exceptionally fast. He had four interceptions this season, including one pick-six, and added 11 pass breakups. Hughes is also a phenomenal punt and kick returner -- he had three more touchdowns on returns. The arrow is pointing way up on Hughes, who really came out of nowhere after playing at North Carolina in 2015 and a junior college in 2016.

 

20. *Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Previous rank: 17

Payne (6-2, 319) is a reliable presence for the Crimson Tide, and he might have had his best two games in the College Football Playoff. Georgia couldn't block him in the title game, especially in the first quarter. Payne isn't going to put up huge numbers on the stat sheet -- he had only three career sacks -- but he consistently beats interior offensive linemen and gets good push, and he's a solid prospect with some upside. Check out the athleticism on his interception and return against Clemson in the video clip above.

21. *Vita Vea, DT, Washington

Previous rank: 19

At 6-foot-4, 346 pounds, Vea is more than a space-eater. He has some explosion and quickness off the ball and can penetrate along the interior. He had five sacks and 39 total tackles last season, and he had 3.5 sacks in 2017. I think Vea can be an every-down player in the NFL, not just a two-down tackle. He reminds me of Haloti Ngata, who had three consecutive NFL seasons with at least five sacks.

22. *Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Previous rank: NR

After picking up a nagging knee injury early this season, Guice broke out with a 276-yard rushing performance in the Tigers' win at Ole Miss. He isn't the athletic specimen Leonard Fournette is, but I liked everything I saw from him last season, too. Guice rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns -- and averaged 7.6 yards per carry -- while Fournette battled injuries. Guice (5-foot-11, 218 pounds) showed good burst running between and outside the tackles, and he's a physical runner. The LSU offense doesn't use its backs much in the passing game, so that's one area in which Guice is behind Barkley and other backs in this class.

23. *James Daniels, C, Iowa

Previous rank: NR

This is a great group of centers at the top. Daniels or Ohio State's Billy Pricecould be first-round picks, depending on how teams value centers. We've seen in recent years that first-round centers can turn out well (Travis Frederick is the most recent example). Daniels (6-foot-4, 296 pounds) is an athletic and talented interior lineman. He can move his feet and get to the second level, and he is perfect as an anchor for today's NFL. Iowa has produced some great linemen under coach Kirk Ferentz, and Daniels could join that list.

24. Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 16

McGlinchey is a massive athlete (6-foot-8, 315 pounds) who looks like a tight end with pads on. He was dominant from the left side in the rout of USC in October. He plays with solid technique, and he can get to the second level for combo blocks, all while driving defenders off the ball in the running game. He played right tackle in 2015, then replaced first-round pick Ronnie Stanley on the left side last season, and he has stayed at left tackle in 2017. The versatility will help McGlinchey in the NFL.

25. Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Previous rank: NR

After leading the nation in sacks (16.5) last season, Landry could have been a late first- or early second-round pick if he had entered the 2017 draft. He also had 22 tackles for loss. There is value in the places he could line up. The 6-foot-3, 257-pound Landry can play outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense or end in a 4-3. He missed the Eagles' last five games of the season with an ankle injury, but he had five sacks -- including three in a tough loss to Virginia Tech -- and 8.5 tackles for loss in eight games.

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Quarterbacks

1. *Josh Allen, Wyoming
2. **Sam Darnold, USC
3. *Josh Rosen, UCLA
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
5. *Lamar Jackson, Louisville
6. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
7. Kyle Lauletta, Richmond
8. Luke Falk, Washington State
9. Mike White, Western Kentucky
10. *Chase Litton, Marshall

[Warfish]

Thanks for posting this.

[MDL_JET]

lol jesus...just reading that section on Josh Allen...

Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. And he didn't put up good numbers in 2016.......and not so great in 2017.....BUT aside from all that, COULD YOU IMAGINE!

 

Can definitely see Minkah being the pick. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 minute ago, MDL_JET said:

lol jesus...just reading that section on Josh Allen...

Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. And he didn't put up good numbers in 2016.......and not so great in 2017.....BUT aside from all that, COULD YOU IMAGINE!

 

Can definitely see Minkah being the pick. 

When you cherry pick the parts you want to make your case against Allen, sure, but if read the entire blurb...:

"Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. There's a reason he went No. 1 in my Mock Draft 1.0. He got better every day at Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, Alabama, where he was on the same team as Baker Mayfield. His numbers weren't great in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56 percent of his passes), and his numbers weren't great in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56.3 percent of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from last season's team, along with its center. I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players. He put some strong film together in the Cowboys' bowl win, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from a shoulder injury."

   

[Long Island Leprechaun]

I odn't think Price will make it out of the first round, but Daniels would be a great second round pick for the Jets, assuming they don't get Jensen in FA (Ritchburg is an injury machine).

[UntouchableCrew]

Has there ever been a prospect with similar attributes/stats as Allen who has gone on to become successful? Honest question.

[Warfish]

This year's QB Draft Class is very interesting, there is no clear consensus as to ranking 1/2/3/4, and all of them have serious, potentially fatal, drawbacks and risk factors.

It speaks to how desperate the NFL is for QB talent that these four are so highly ranked/projected.  It's not a reflection that these guys are legit #1 pick sure thing QB's, because frankly, not one of them is a sure thing.

Very much an uncertain class, with argument for, and against, each of them, and each getting a cadre of heads and fans who think their guy is THE guy.

In truth, there not be even one "THE guy" in the top end of this class.  Not even the guy I like, Mayfield, who is (as I say often) a MASSIVE risk at the Pro level, despite my preference for him.

Going to make for an interesting 2018 season watching these four (and Jackson, and Rudolph and Falk) and where they end up, and especially if they start.

Personally, Cousins (despite his massive cost) is still likely the Jets best bet, skipping the QB class entirely or (perhaps) selecting a Falk in Round 2/3 to back up Cousins.  Too much uncertainty in this class, to much "potential", too little certainty.

[PepPep]

Would really love the Jets to trade down and take McGlinchey somewhere in the early 20's.  

Just imagine taking a Blue Chip OT prospect like McGlinchey at say, 21 via a trade with the Bills...letting them take Allen or Mayfield or any of the QBs not named Rosen or Darnold and having AT LEAST three second round picks, two third round picks and the rest of the draft to add young talent.  

This is, in part, why I want the Jets to do all they an to bring Cousins in. Because with the QB position addressed, the Jets could trade down and surround Cousins with young talent immediately, including a top tier OT, a bell-cow RB and a talented Edge Rusher.   

[JoJoTownsell1]

17 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Would really love the Jets to trade down and take McGlinchey somewhere in the early 20's.  

Just imagine taking a Blue Chip OT prospect like McGlinchey at say, 21 via a trade with the Bills...letting them take Allen or Mayfield or any of the QBs not named Rosen or Darnold and having AT LEAST three second round picks, two third round picks and the rest of the draft to add young talent.  

This is, in part, why I want the Jets to do all they an to bring Cousins in. Because with the QB position addressed, the Jets could trade down and surround Cousins with young talent immediately, including a top tier OT, a bell-cow RB and a talented Edge Rusher.   

I wanted us to tank for the #1 overall, but since now we are stuck picking what's left over at 6 (and that's even assuming one of the top 4 falls to us), signing Cousins is an absolute must and it's an amazing Plan B. We get an established QB with 5k yards per year potential. A smart kid, with a ton of heart playing in his prime. 

And like you said, it frees us up to surround him with great young talent. We can easily make the playoffs next year and be a contender in the AFC for 4 or 5 years. 

[CanadaSteve]

24 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Would really love the Jets to trade down and take McGlinchey somewhere in the early 20's.  

Just imagine taking a Blue Chip OT prospect like McGlinchey at say, 21 via a trade with the Bills...letting them take Allen or Mayfield or any of the QBs not named Rosen or Darnold and having AT LEAST three second round picks, two third round picks and the rest of the draft to add young talent.  

This is, in part, why I want the Jets to do all they an to bring Cousins in. Because with the QB position addressed, the Jets could trade down and surround Cousins with young talent immediately, including a top tier OT, a bell-cow RB and a talented Edge Rusher.   

He won't last that long.  The Jets could move down MAYBE 4-5 spots and have a realistic chance.  But he is LONG gone by 21

[Obrien2Toon]

28 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Would really love the Jets to trade down and take McGlinchey somewhere in the early 20's.  

Just imagine taking a Blue Chip OT prospect like McGlinchey at say, 21 via a trade with the Bills...letting them take Allen or Mayfield or any of the QBs not named Rosen or Darnold and having AT LEAST three second round picks, two third round picks and the rest of the draft to add young talent.  

This is, in part, why I want the Jets to do all they an to bring Cousins in. Because with the QB position addressed, the Jets could trade down and surround Cousins with young talent immediately, including a top tier OT, a bell-cow RB and a talented Edge Rusher.   

McGlinchey’s going to get abused by pro pass rushers and is a future RT with cement feet

[ScarletKnight89]

With all the talk we've heard about this QB class it's interesting to see that he only has one QB in his top 5.

[Stark]

1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

lol jesus...just reading that section on Josh Allen...

Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. And he didn't put up good numbers in 2016.......and not so great in 2017.....BUT aside from all that, COULD YOU IMAGINE!

 

Can definitely see Minkah being the pick. 

 

1 hour ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

When you cherry pick the parts you want to make your case against Allen, sure, but if read the entire blurb...:

"Allen (6-5, 237) is super raw, but he can really sling it. There's a reason he went No. 1 in my Mock Draft 1.0. He got better every day at Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, Alabama, where he was on the same team as Baker Mayfield. His numbers weren't great in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56 percent of his passes), and his numbers weren't great in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56.3 percent of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from last season's team, along with its center. I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players. He put some strong film together in the Cowboys' bowl win, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from a shoulder injury."

   

When you consider that the part that is also important is the fact that with Allen's "BETTER team in 2016" even then if you watched him, and the stats back it up, he wasn't really that impressive.

So Show very little growth on film, and statistically over 2 seasons.... sorry still a big PASS for me.

[Stark]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Would really love the Jets to trade down and take McGlinchey somewhere in the early 20's.  

Just imagine taking a Blue Chip OT prospect like McGlinchey at say, 21 via a trade with the Bills...letting them take Allen or Mayfield or any of the QBs not named Rosen or Darnold and having AT LEAST three second round picks, two third round picks and the rest of the draft to add young talent.  

This is, in part, why I want the Jets to do all they an to bring Cousins in. Because with the QB position addressed, the Jets could trade down and surround Cousins with young talent immediately, including a top tier OT, a bell-cow RB and a talented Edge Rusher.   

It would take both the Bills 1st rd pics at minimum to get our 6th pick. Now whether that be 1 of the first rounders this year and 1 next or both this year either way you would be cutting us short on compensation. 

But I see where you are going and I like the thought.

[Beerfish]

If the draft played out like that I'd drink a bottle of good whiskey and dance a jig.

[flgreen]

17 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

With all the talk we've heard about this QB class it's interesting to see that he only has one QB in his top 5.

He's not saying that's how it will fall, I believe he has 3 QB's going top 5 in his mock.

[Lupz27]

Combine and Pro days haven’t even happened yet and Kiper has catapulted Lauletta up to 7th on his QB list, IF this kid lights up the Combine, Pro Day, and most importantly the interviews and white board work he might end up being a 1st rounder!

Obviously he could also get exposed during these events, and interviews, and fall back to a mid round pick, might be the most fascinating thing to watch the next 2 months.

[RedBeardedSavage]

Josh Jackson from Iowa is really interesting.  18 pass breakups and 8 interceptions?

Went to youtube after reading the blurb in this article; can't really trust highlight videos but goddam is that a ridiculous angle to come away with the interception.  

We'll see how he runs at the combine I guess, but I'm not opposed to taking a corner @ six overall if we signed Cousins in free agency.

Thanks for posting this article, Prime21.

[bitonti]

Just now, RedBeardedSavage said:

We'll see how he runs at the combine I guess, but if I'm not opposed to taking a corner @ six overall if we signed Cousins in free agency.

 

 

Jackson has ball skills but his long speed is questionable.  He's actually a better fit in a zone and the Jets run tons of press man. The first CB will likely be Ward and it won't happen in the top 10. 

[T0mShane]

Baker Mayfield’s offense featured a third round TE and a sixth round FB. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Just now, bitonti said:

Jackson has ball skills but his long speed is questionable.  He's actually a better fit in a zone and the Jets run tons of press man. The first CB will likely be Ward and it won't happen in the top 10. 

Good to know.  Will be keeping an eye out for his 40, even if he does project as a zone guy.  

[shuler82]

Holy ****. We’re totally drafting Fitzpatrick after signing Case Kennum to a 4/72 deal 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Has there ever been a prospect with similar attributes/stats as Allen who has gone on to become successful? Honest question.

Similar attributes?  Sure.  Andrew Luck.  

Stats?  Not really.  We've kind of beat this up before but the only really close comparison would be Matthew Stafford. Though he did crack 60% comp % his junior year and has much better numbers.  Carson Palmer is an kind of a close example as well.  He was terrible statistically until his Senior year.

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

Similar attributes?  Sure.  Andrew Luck.  

Stats?  Not really.  We've kind of beat this up before but the only really close comparison would be Matthew Stafford. Though he did crack 60% comp % his junior year and has much better numbers.  Carson Palmer is an kind of a close example as well.  He was terrible statistically until his Senior year.

Right, I meant the combination of physical gifts with terrible numbers at a low level of competition. With Stafford his numbers weren't great but they were better than Allen's and he was playing SEC defenses. Palmer won the Heisman trophy.

I just don't get how anyone can look at Allen and say "yeah, this is the guy in the first round. We can make him good." As tempting as the upside might be, I can get spending a later pick on him. But the prospect of him succeeding and becoming a top NFL QB seem remote compared with the likelihood he'll never be a starter.

[jetsons]

1 hour ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Josh Jackson from Iowa is really interesting.  18 pass breakups and 8 interceptions?

Went to youtube after reading the blurb in this article; can't really trust highlight videos but goddam is that a ridiculous angle to come away with the interception.  

We'll see how he runs at the combine I guess, but I'm not opposed to taking a corner @ six overall if we signed Cousins in free agency.

Thanks for posting this article, Prime21.

What angle???  he was trailing the player the entire way and jumped and made a nice grab.

[jpoppy717]

1 hour ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Josh Jackson from Iowa is really interesting.  18 pass breakups and 8 interceptions?

Went to youtube after reading the blurb in this article; can't really trust highlight videos but goddam is that a ridiculous angle to come away with the interception.  

We'll see how he runs at the combine I guess, but I'm not opposed to taking a corner @ six overall if we signed Cousins in free agency.

Thanks for posting this article, Prime21.

Looks like a good player. 6 seems to be high for him.  Would be very happy drafting him if we trade down.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Right, I meant the combination of physical gifts with terrible numbers at a low level of competition. With Stafford his numbers weren't great but they were better than Allen's and he was playing SEC defenses. Palmer won the Heisman trophy.

I just don't get how anyone can look at Allen and say "yeah, this is the guy in the first round. We can make him good." As tempting as the upside might be, I can get spending a later pick on him. But the prospect of him succeeding and becoming a top NFL QB seem remote compared with the likelihood he'll never be a starter.

Agreed 100%.  I dont think any amount of development or time is going to make him a more accurate passer when everything is 1000000x harder than playing at Wyoming.  That said, his physical make up cant be taught and clearly teams are falling in love with that aspect.

To answer your more direct question; no.  I cant think of an example.  He reminds me of Jake Locker from the physical + the stats standpoint but even Jake played in a major conference.

A name that just popped to mind is David Garrard.  He came from East Carolina had terrible stats but all the physical tools and he had a few average season in the NFL...but that was after sitting for a few years.  He was also a 4th round pick.

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

Agreed 100%.  I dont think any amount of development or time is going to make him a more accurate passer when everything is 1000000x harder than playing at Wyoming.  That said, his physical make up cant be taught and clearly teams are falling in love with that aspect.

To answer your more direct question; no.  I cant think of an example.  He reminds me of Jake Locker from the physical + the stats standpoint but even Jake played in a major conference.

A name that just popped to mind is David Garrard.  He came from East Carolina had terrible stats but all the physical tools and he had a few average season in the NFL...but that was after sitting for a few years.  He was also a 4th round pick.

Locker is a good comp and we all know how that turned out. Can't say I remember Garrard in the pre-draft process.

[DMan77]

I have many dreams as to how this offseason will play out. It lets me reserve the right to acknowledge my ideas are awful, and then change my plan 1,000 times.

But how about this: Jets sign Cousins, Jets trade down from 6 to mid-round and take one of those 3 glorious offensive tackles that are within the top 25... Terrible idea?! Sure, maybe... But man do I long for a top offensive line again. Miller, Brown, or McGlinchey? Yes please.

 

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Locker is a good comp and we all know how that turned out. Can't say I remember Garrard in the pre-draft process.

Yeah me either.  It was 2002.  He was a 4th round pick out of East Carolina.   He wasnt hyped at all but then again, this is a completely different day in age.

I was just saying he was pretty bad statistically in college and actually turned out a few decent years where he was pretty efficient. 

[derp]

I definitely get the Locker comparison for Allen. There's also some Cam Newton in there too. It's easy to see why people like him, the arm is absurd. Also easy to see why people want no part of him, he's wildly inconsistent.

I think there are scenarios where Allen ends up being a really good quarterback. Needs a really good offensive coaching staff that's willing to cater gameplans to his strengths (i.e. push the ball downfield, some of those deep corner routes that most quarterbacks can't make, etc), a run game to take pressure off him early, and maybe even half a year to a year of just mechanical cleanup.  Not sure he gets much if any of that with the Jets.

I guess we'll have a better sense of the plan once FA is done but I'm really curious to see what the Jets do on the offensive line in this draft. Kiper kind of alludes to the tackle position being a giant cluster and it'll be interesting to see how that all shakes out. Couple of quality centers who could make it to the second round pick. Several good guards including maybe the safest prospect in the draft (although we saw this with Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack a few years ago - granted that draft was pretty awful overall). Jets have no long-term center, could probably draft a tackle, stick him on the right side, and maybe have him replace Beachum down the road, and might need a new guard too if they cut Carpenter. Particularly with the likely move to a ZBS I think we're going to see a bit of an overhaul on the line and I'm curious how much of it comes via the draft.

[Warfish]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

This year's QB Draft Class is very interesting, there is no clear consensus as to ranking 1/2/3/4, and all of them have serious, potentially fatal, drawbacks and risk factors.

It speaks to how desperate the NFL is for QB talent that these four are so highly ranked/projected.  It's not a reflection that these guys are legit #1 pick sure thing QB's, because frankly, not one of them is a sure thing.

Very much an uncertain class, with argument for, and against, each of them, and each getting a cadre of heads and fans who think their guy is THE guy.

In truth, there not be even one "THE guy" in the top end of this class.  Not even the guy I like, Mayfield, who is (as I say often) a MASSIVE risk at the Pro level, despite my preference for him.

Going to make for an interesting 2018 season watching these four (and Jackson, and Rudolph and Falk) and where they end up, and especially if they start.

Personally, Cousins (despite his massive cost) is still likely the Jets best bet, skipping the QB class entirely or (perhaps) selecting a Falk in Round 2/3 to back up Cousins.  Too much uncertainty in this class, to much "potential", too little certainty.

I gotta ask you @johnnysd, what part of this post did you find to be "Buttfumble worthy" exactly?

Not saying I don;t earn the occasional buttfumble, I'm just honestly confused what part of this post earned it....

P.S. How do I do "mentions" where other folks get notified of it? 

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, bitonti said:

Jackson has ball skills but his long speed is questionable.  He's actually a better fit in a zone and the Jets run tons of press man. The first CB will likely be Ward and it won't happen in the top 10. 

if you are going to be weak at anything I would prefer it be long speed. 

1. long passes are completed at a very low percentage and an even lower percentage hit a WR in stride. Most of the time you see WR's adjusting for long passes in many different situations so a guy with good ball skills will even be more desirable in that situation.

2. most offenses are now geared to the short and intermediate passing game and getting the ball out quickly

great seasons like the ones Revis had were formulated by pressure and the ability to cover WR;'s in a 10 to 15 yard window Quickness is desired much more than speed even though Revis had both his quickness defined him. We have 2 very good safeties who can help out on the long passes. So if this guys a ball hawk and great in tight coverage then hes the guy you want in a pressure scheme.

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I gotta ask you johnnysd, what part of this post did you find to be "Buttfumble worthy" exactly?

Not saying I don;t earn the occasional buttfumble, I'm just honestly confused what part of this post earned it....

P.S. How do I do "mentions" where other folks get notified of it? 

type @ and the persons name @Warfish and it will notify them

[Maxman]

4 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

With all the talk we've heard about this QB class it's interesting to see that he only has one QB in his top 5.

I think he is saying this is based on value. There will definitely be multiple QBs picked in the top 5 based on need.