2017 Target Drop Pass Percentages among Top QB Prospects

[Jetsfan80]

Here's the rankings for target dropped passes for each of the top QB prospects in 2017, with the QB's completion % from that season next to each:

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%  (59.1)
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%  (70.5)
Josh Rosen - 7.5%   (62.6)
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%   (65.0)
Josh Allen - 4.8%  (56.3)
Sam Darnold - 4.3%   (63.1)

 

This is a fairly important metric, and the most important impact this has is on my opinions of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.  Full disclosure:  I favored Jackson over Allen before seeing these numbers.  This only confirms my thinking:  1) Avoid Allen at all costs; and 2) Lamar would be well worth a 2nd round pick.

Just food for thought if we don't win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. 

 

[Patriot Killa]

It also says good things for Baker Mayfield’s accuracy. If he has the 2nd most dropped passes while maintaining a 70% completion percentage, to me, that speaks volumes.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

It also says good things for Baker Mayfield’s accuracy. If he has the 2nd most dropped passes while maintaining a 70% completion percentage, to me, that speaks volumes.

Agreed.  The knock on Mayfield, of course, is the Big 12 playing no D and him not being in a pro style offense.  From what little I saw of him, the dude can complete some nice throws.  For whatever its worth.  

[Patriot Killa]

17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Agreed.  The knock on Mayfield, of course, is the Big 12 playing no D and him not being in a pro style offense.  From what little I saw of him, the dude can complete some nice throws.  For whatever its worth.  

Sure can. I actually think partly in why Watson is working out at the pro level despite coming from a spread system is because he could make NFL throws and had the necessary accuracy and ball placement skills to thrive in this league. He just needed that little offseason/preseason preparation so he could come to the realization of what he had to do at this level and he let his natural passing do the rest. Now do I think Mayfield will come out and throw 5 TD games in year one just as Watson did? Hell no. But I do think is Mayfield can make those passes where he needs perfect ball placement to complete the pass. I think Baker has the accuracy and fast enough processor to come on quite early like Watson did. 

[Larz]

Who else could drop the pass except the target? 

Can we just call this dropped passes? 

Sorry,  that bugged me lol

[JohnnyLV]

I just get this feeling that the NFL is very leery of Jackson and he slips to the 2nd. The NFL is just stuck in their ways and just still not comfortable with the mobile QB thing, especially after Kap imploded and Cam does not look sustainable.

[Gastineau Lives]

5 minutes ago, Larz said:

Who else could drop the pass except the target? 

Can we just call this dropped passes? 

Sorry,  that bugged me lol

In Hackenberg's case, it's sideline reporters and hotdog vendors.

[Jetsfan80]

46 minutes ago, Larz said:

Who else could drop the pass except the target? 

Can we just call this dropped passes? 

Sorry,  that bugged me lol

I guess they didn't want to factor in situations where QB's were, say, throwing the ball away to avoid a pass rush and other things like that.  

In other words, what % of passes that were remotely catchable were dropped, would be the way to interpret this metric.  

[cant wait]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

It also says good things for Baker Mayfield’s accuracy. If he has the 2nd most dropped passes while maintaining a 70% completion percentage, to me, that speaks volumes.

I think you have to factor in the offense too, that OU offense was so explosive it was like there was a wide open man on every play. kind of reminds me of when mariota was at oregon

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Here's the rankings for target dropped passes for each of the top QB prospects in 2017, with the QB's completion % from that season next to each:

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%  (59.1)
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%  (70.5)
Josh Rosen - 7.5%   (62.6)
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%   (65.0)
Josh Allen - 4.8%  (56.3)
Sam Darnold - 4.3%   (63.1)

 

This is a fairly important metric, and the most important impact this has is on my opinions of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.  Full disclosure:  I favored Jackson over Allen before seeing these numbers.  This only confirms my thinking:  1) Avoid Allen at all costs; and 2) Lamar would be well worth a 2nd round pick.

Just food for thought if we don't win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. 

 

Just wondering, where did these stats come from?

[cant wait]

I think this info is from november so it’s not complete, but the last number stood out to me as well

 

Where Louisville QB Lamar Jackson stands among the nation's top draft-eligible QBs.https://t.co/pNuLiDQxvD pic.twitter.com/CFBbF5XPXC

— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) November 16, 2017

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Here's the rankings for target dropped passes for each of the top QB prospects in 2017, with the QB's completion % from that season next to each:

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%  (59.1)
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%  (70.5)
Josh Rosen - 7.5%   (62.6)
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%   (65.0)
Josh Allen - 4.8%  (56.3)
Sam Darnold - 4.3%   (63.1)

 

This is a fairly important metric, and the most important impact this has is on my opinions of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.  Full disclosure:  I favored Jackson over Allen before seeing these numbers.  This only confirms my thinking:  1) Avoid Allen at all costs; and 2) Lamar would be well worth a 2nd round pick.

Just food for thought if we don't win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. 

 

So if I am reading this right, the QB's put THIS % of passes in a "catchable spot" either as a catch or a pass that was catchable and dropped:

Jackson - 67.6%
Mayfield - 78.5%
Rosen - 70.1%
Rudolph - 71.6%
Allen - 61.1%
Darnold - 67.4%

Is that the point being made?

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Just wondering, where did these stats come from?

 

https://www.cover1.net/nfl-draft-analytic-breakdown-josh-allens-completion-percentage/

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So if I am reading this right, the QB's put THIS % of passes in a "catchable spot" either as a catch or a pass that was catchable and dropped:

Jackson - 67.6%
Mayfield - 78.5%
Rosen - 70.1%
Rudolph - 71.6%
Allen - 61.1%
Darnold - 67.4%

Is that the point being made?

 

I guess you could put it that way.  I'm not good enough with numbers to determine if what you're saying is correct.  I'm sure there's a "True Completion %" metric out there that I didn't see.  

[faba]

You can not teach accuracy as dumb as that might sound. Allen low completion percentage is troubling even with his physical skills

[Jetsfan80]

Anybody but Josh Allen.  That's where I'm at.  

[Lupz27]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Here's the rankings for target dropped passes for each of the top QB prospects in 2017, with the QB's completion % from that season next to each:

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%  (59.1)
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%  (70.5)
Josh Rosen - 7.5%   (62.6)
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%   (65.0)
Josh Allen - 4.8%  (56.3)
Sam Darnold - 4.3%   (63.1)

 

This is a fairly important metric, and the most important impact this has is on my opinions of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.  Full disclosure:  I favored Jackson over Allen before seeing these numbers.  This only confirms my thinking:  1) Avoid Allen at all costs; and 2) Lamar would be well worth a 2nd round pick.

Just food for thought if we don't win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. 

 

Dude Lamar Jackson is Mike Vick right handed, and 2” taller!  Mike Vick went #1 overall, you honestly think when the Combine, and Pro days are over Lamar Jackson will be remotely considered to be available in the 2nd round?  Never mind past top 10?  

[cant wait]

2 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Dude Lamar Jackson is Mike Vick right handed, and 2” taller!  Mike Vick went #1 overall, you honestly think when the Combine, and Pro days are over Lamar Jackson will be remotely considered to be available in the 2nd round?  Never mind past top 10?  

nope and when everybody sees this kid throwing lasers in shorts they are all going to fall in line

[Lupz27]

2 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

It also says good things for Baker Mayfield’s accuracy. If he has the 2nd most dropped passes while maintaining a 70% completion percentage, to me, that speaks volumes.

Let’s not forget he played on the most talented team in the country, best O-line, and great play makers, oh, and played his games in the Big 12 where they forget to play defense, stats are great, but let’s not get carried away with his stats, let’s look at everything else, and then confirm that with stats, out the puzzle together.  I don’t like the Mayfield puzzle personally once all the pieces are in place, but if you do then yeah the stats can be your nail in the coughing for your final take on him as a prospect.

[cant wait]

On 1/17/2018 at 9:14 PM, cant wait said:

 

I think this guy is going undervalued right now but I expect things to change after the combine- the guy is absolutely electric and a more advanced passer then he's getting credit for, showing nice improvement coming off his heisman season despite louisville losing 7 seniors. yes ideally you'd like to see the comp % be a tick higher but PFF ranks him in the middle of the pack once you factor in drops etc. 

jackson vs. allen: pocket presence breakdown - thoughtful film analysis by matt waldman

 

PFF adjusted completion % (I believe this only adjusts for drops/catchable passes)

 

 

 

FYI I posted this a while ago in the draft forum - I believe the adjusted % charts are from PFF

[Lupz27]

1 minute ago, cant wait said:

nope and when everybody sees this kid throwing lasers in shorts they are all going to fall in line

Don’t forget the 4.4 40 he most likely runs.  Maybe slower thou as I doubt he trains for that as someone trying to be a QB, and prove the haters wrong that he is just a College QB who needs to become a WR in the pros (and I was one of those last season, after carefully watching him this season I’ve done a complete 180).

[cant wait]

1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

Don’t forget the 4.4 40 he most likely runs.  Maybe slower thou as I doubt he trains for that as someone trying to be a QB, and prove the haters wrong that he is just a College QB who needs to become a WR in the pros (and I was one of those last season, after carefully watching him this season I’ve done a complete 180).

I’m expecting 4.4, I would be shocked if he runs slower than mariota

[Lupz27]

35 minutes ago, cant wait said:

I’m expecting 4.4, I would be shocked if he runs slower than mariota

Vick 4.33, RGIII 4.41.  IF Jackson falls somewhere in between these 2 he will be the talk of every single draft Media coverage for all the weeks leading up to the draft, it would be Baker who?!

[Lupz27]

1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

Vick 4.33, RGIII 4.41.  IF Jackson falls somewhere in between these 2 he will be the talk of every single draft Media coverage for all the weeks leading up to the draft, it would be Baker who?!

 

37 minutes ago, cant wait said:

I’m expecting 4.4, I would be shocked if he runs slower than mariota

FYI Louisville reported he ran a 4.42 in the start of 2016 spring practice, and then 4.34 at the start of 2017 spring practice!

[HessStation]

I have no problem drafting Jackson at 6 and would prefer it over signing cousins. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Worried Jackson might not even be around @ 6 after the combine.  

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Anybody but Josh Allen.  That's where I'm at.  

Same here. I don't like Rudolph in the first either. Not that you're saying that but since he's included here.

[HessStation]

7 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Worried Jackson might not even be around @ 6 after the combine.  

For me there's 4 QBs I'd be excited about that early so whichever way it goes. 

If 3 go off the bat then you trade up with Cleveland at 4...but Allen will be most likely one of those 3

Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, get one.

 

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

For me there's 4 QBs I'd be excited about that early so whichever way it goes. 

If 3 go off the bat then you trade up with Cleveland at 4...but Allen will be most likely one of those 3

Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson

 I'm getting concerned because I can make a case for and against each of those quarterbacks.  At this point, I'd take any one of them @ 6.  

I still think we should be chasing Cousins as plan A - namely because free agency comes first and he's the least risky option. 

I no longer think we should trade up.  Between those four quarterbacks, Chubb, Barkley, and Nelson as the worst case scenario, the sixth pick doesn't look so bad.  And I think that's due to Lamar Jackson.

We better not draft Allen...

[HessStation]

7 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

 I'm getting concerned because I can make a case for and against each of those quarterbacks.  At this point, I'd take any one of them @ 6.  

I still think we should be chasing Cousins as plan A - namely because free agency comes first and he's the least risky option. 

I no longer think we should trade up.  Between those four quarterbacks, Chubb, Barkley, and Nelson as the worst case scenario, the sixth pick doesn't look so bad.  And I think that's due to Lamar Jackson.

We better not draft Allen...

I'm all in for the gamble. I don't care. I don't want Cousins. I almost consider it, that on a karmic level, this sh*tbag team needs to find its own identity and draft a ******* QB that you can establish yourselves with for the next 15 years instead of somebody else's guy. I really don't care about risk. You're a ******* NFL franchise with all the resources to figure out which guy. ******* draft him and maybe for once, odds alone, that you maybe can blind squirrel it.

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

I'm all in for the gamble. I don't care. I don't want Cousins. I almost consider it, that on a karmic level, this sh*tbag team needs to find its own identity and draft a ******* QB that you can establish yourselves with for the next 15 years instead of somebody else's guy. I really don't care about risk. You're a ******* NFL franchise with all the resources to figure out which guy. ******* draft him and maybe for once, odds alone, that you maybe can blind squirrel it.

I hear ya.  I'd be ecstatic if we drafted our own star quarterback. 

But I want a franchise quarterback more than I want our franchise quarterback.  

[HessStation]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So if I am reading this right, the QB's put THIS % of passes in a "catchable spot" either as a catch or a pass that was catchable and dropped:

Jackson - 67.6%
Mayfield - 78.5%
Rosen - 70.1%
Rudolph - 71.6%
Allen - 61.1%
Darnold - 67.4%

Is that the point being made?

No. You'd have to know how many total passes thrown, completed and dropped to get that. Its not as if there were all 100 total passes thrown per qb 

[Jetsfan80]

37 minutes ago, HessStation said:

For me there's 4 QBs I'd be excited about that early so whichever way it goes. 

If 3 go off the bat then you trade up with Cleveland at 4...but Allen will be most likely one of those 3

Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, get one.

 

 

 

1.  Darnold

2.  Rosen

3.  Mayfield

4.  Jackson

5.  Teddy Bridgewater

6.  Kirk Cousins

7.  Mason Rudolph

8.  Case Keenum

9.  Sam Bradford

10.  Josh McCown

11.  Nick Foles

12.  Mark Sanchez

13.  Vinny Testaverde

14.  Geno Smith

15.  Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

 

174.  Josh Allen

[T0mShane]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Here's the rankings for target dropped passes for each of the top QB prospects in 2017, with the QB's completion % from that season next to each:

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson - 8.5%  (59.1)
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%  (70.5)
Josh Rosen - 7.5%   (62.6)
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%   (65.0)
Josh Allen - 4.8%  (56.3)
Sam Darnold - 4.3%   (63.1)

 

This is a fairly important metric, and the most important impact this has is on my opinions of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.  Full disclosure:  I favored Jackson over Allen before seeing these numbers.  This only confirms my thinking:  1) Avoid Allen at all costs; and 2) Lamar would be well worth a 2nd round pick.

Just food for thought if we don't win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. 

 

The excuse thrown around for Allen’s awfulness is that his supporting cast sucked, but his supporting cast dropped passes at half the rate of Jackson and Mayfield? 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

The excuse thrown around for Allen’s awfulness is that his supporting cast sucked, but his supporting cast dropped passes at half the rate of Jackson and Mayfield? 

Indeed.  It's insanity.