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Ecuadorian Jet

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12 hours ago, Ecuadorian Jet said:

Question for you pals draftnicks.......what is your favorite mock big board? Walters Football? NFL Draft Scout? Countdown? OurLads? Bleacher Report? other?

What board do you trust the most in ranking prospects?

The short answer is not to use one board, but an aggregate. You can get a list from the Huddle Report. By the time the draft starts to get close, the wisdom of crowds does a pretty good job of putting guys in the right basket through roughly the first couple of rounds.

What I used to do specifically is as follows. Figure out how deep you want to go (N picks). Use average rankings with knockouts for anybody who is ranked outside the top 2N, i.e., if you want to end up with a board for the top 25 picks, anybody who ranks outside the top 50 on any board gets taken off. This doesn't work this early on before the combine and stuff because people are still all over the place. Once things cohere you won't see a prospect in somebody's top ten but outside somebody else's top hundred like you do now. If that's the case later on it's more likely to be an indicator of legit risk. After that I will shade guys up and down based on general and position-specific stuff. SPARQ, Lewin, playmaker and speed scores, Waldo numbers, and so forth. This approach made me thousands of dollars guessing picks against a team of guys from my fantasy football league until they all tapped out.

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23 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

The short answer is not to use one board, but an aggregate. You can get a list from the Huddle Report. By the time the draft starts to get close, the wisdom of crowds does a pretty good job of putting guys in the right basket through roughly the first couple of rounds.

What I used to do specifically is as follows. Figure out how deep you want to go (N picks). Use average rankings with knockouts for anybody who is ranked outside the top 2N, i.e., if you want to end up with a board for the top 25 picks, anybody who ranks outside the top 50 on any board gets taken off. This doesn't work this early on before the combine and stuff because people are still all over the place. Once things cohere you won't see a prospect in somebody's top ten but outside somebody else's top hundred like you do now. If that's the case later on it's more likely to be an indicator of legit risk. After that I will shade guys up and down based on general and position-specific stuff. SPARQ, Lewin, playmaker and speed scores, Waldo numbers, and so forth. This approach made me thousands of dollars guessing picks against a team of guys from my fantasy football league until they all tapped out.

More NFL teams in line with this stuff than given credit for? Obviously leaving out the Jets here.

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3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

More NFL teams in line with this stuff than given credit for? Obviously leaving out the Jets here.

Well, you know which teams are smart and which ones are stupid, so you factor that too. And of course there's visits and other indicia of specific interest you have to account for, for these purposes anyway. 

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