An eye-opening Kirk Cousins trend that should give Jets pause

[Freemanm]

An eye-opening Kirk Cousins trend that should give Jets pause

Feb 25, 2018

Rich CiminiESPN Staff Writer

primment

A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:

1. Struggles against top competition: The Jets' anticipated pursuit of Kirk Cousins is a hot-button issue among fans in New York. Should they shell out $30 million a year for the prospective free agent or try to find their quarterback in the draft? Both sides can make compelling arguments, but here's a factoid that might provide some clarity for those on the fence:

During his time with the Washington Redskins, Cousins' starting record against winning teams is 4-19 (based on their opponents' final record).

Yes, 4-19.

Cousins has cleaned up against losing teams (19-9-1) and has fared OK against .500 clubs (3-2), resulting in an overall record of 26-30-1 in the regular season. He is 0-1 in the playoffs. The numbers are alarming, to say the least. Of his four victories against winning opponents, only one came in the division -- New York Giants, 2016. All told, he's 1-7 against winning teams in the NFC East. 

The man he could replace, Josh McCown, went 3-4 last season versus winning teams -- and he made $18 million less than Cousins.

Cousins supporters can cite excuses for his inability to beat quality opponents -- injuries to his supporting cast, personnel changes, etc. -- but 4-19 is 4-19. His individual statistics jump off the page (three straight 4,000-yard seasons), but those are secondary. A quarterback's job is to win.

The Jets believe Cousins can solve their long-term issue at quarterback and, as I reported last week, they're prepared to be aggressive in the bidding. Cousins would be an upgrade, but he isn't a savior. If the Jets see him that way, they're letting desperation cloud their judgment.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/74749/an-alarming-kirk-cousins-trend-that-should-give-jets-pause

 

[bitonti]

anyone who wants the Jets to open their wallets for Kirk Cousins should be forced to sit and watch the entire play by play from Week 17 vs NYG

 

he's bad in the division and he's never made it to the playoffs (because he's bad in the division). 

[kelly]

thanx 4 opening another  Kirk Cousins thread..

 

[k-met57]

18 minutes ago, bitonti said:

anyone who wants the Jets to open their wallets for Kirk Cousins should be forced to sit and watch the entire play by play from Week 17 vs NYG

 

he's bad in the division and he's never made it to the playoffs (because he's bad in the division). 

did you watch the game? i did...i cant remember more then 5 plays in the entire game where Cousins had a clean pocket. He literally had unblocked giants coming after him all game...i can give you a list of QB's (Ryan, Stafford, etc...) not named Brady or Rodgers that would not have done any better.

[#27TheDominator]

27 minutes ago, bitonti said:

anyone who wants the Jets to open their wallets for Kirk Cousins should be forced to sit and watch the entire play by play from Week 17 vs NYG

 

he's bad in the division and he's never made it to the playoffs (because he's bad in the division). 

He's never made it to the playoffs, except that time that he made it to the playoffs. 

[Bleedin Green]

While I certainly won't dispute that Cousins is definitely not in the conversation for league's best, despite that he will soon be paid as such, or even top 5, but as unbelievably vital as a QB is to the NFL these days, the concept of evaluating based solely on record, be it for purposes of credit or blame, is an excessively flawed mindset that is proven to be wrong time and time again.  Nick Foles isn't the league's best either, and certainly not better than Brady, but we all know how it ended thanks to another 52 players on each team.  This is hardly some unprecedented situation; we've seen both talented teams carry crappy QBs to good records, and better QBs dragged down by a lack of help.  It's not exactly like the Redskins have the greatest track record over the past couple of decades, with or without Cousins.

Now is Cousins a savior?  No, but it's really without question that if he ends up somewhere with a better supporting cast, you would "shockingly" see an improvement in his own, and his new team's, records.  I have no hate for McCown, but using him as an example in this case does more to disprove the theory than support it.

[Philc1]

18 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

did you watch the game? i did...i cant remember more then 5 plays in the entire game where Cousins had a clean pocket. He literally had unblocked giants coming after him all game...i can give you a list of QB's (Ryan, Stafford, etc...) not named Brady or Rodgers that would not have done any better.

Football is a team sport, last I checked 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

While I certainly won't dispute that Cousins is definitely not in the conversation for league's best, despite that he will soon be paid as such, or even top 5, but as unbelievably vital as a QB is to the NFL these days, the concept of evaluating based solely on record, be it for purposes of credit or blame, is an excessively flawed mindset that is proven to be wrong time and time again.  Nick Foles isn't the league's best either, and certainly not better than Brady, but we all know how it ended thanks to another 52 players on each team.  This is hardly some unprecedented situation; we've seen both talented teams carry crappy QBs to good records, and better QBs dragged down by a lack of help.  It's not exactly like the Redskins have the greatest track record over the past couple of decades, with or without Cousins.

Now is Cousins a savior?  No, but it's really without question that if he ends up somewhere with a better supporting cast, you would "shockingly" see an improvement in his own, and his new team's, records.  I have no hate for McCown, but using him as an example in this case does more to disprove the theory than support it.

Cousins is a pretty good qb who is still relatively young.  I thought Evan Roberts had a great statistical comparison between Brees his first several years in SD and Cousins in Washington — Cousins actually has better stats

 

Now is Cousins going to be as good as Brees? Probably not but I’ll take pretty good

 

 

[k-met57]

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

Football is a team sport, last I checked 

not sure what that has to do with anything...the comment was related to his individual performance...which i feel based on what i remember from the game...he held up his end of the bargain and then some.

[Philc1]

Just now, k-met57 said:

not sure what that has to do with anything...the comment was related to his individual performance...which i feel based on what i remember from the game...he held up his end of the bargain and then some.

Connecting wins and losses to any individual football player is foolish 

[varjet]

Cousins will be the highest paid QB because he will be the most recent to sign, and he was willing to put himself up for bid, and there are sufficiently desperate teams to bid for him.

In the NFL where the bad teams have excess cap space, they are able to overpay for QBs.  The better teams with good QBs have less money to pay them because they have less cap space.  They can franchise their QBs as a threat, which usually works.  

If Rodgers really wants a super big contract, he can accept the fact that it will be tough to sign players to surround him.  There are plenty of QBs who get paid more than Brady.  

I think Cousins’ situation is very unique and aligns with at least one desperate team in the Jets.  Cousins I guess is hoping that the Vikings can come up with something respectable.

[Paradis]

Cimini hit the nail square on with this one.... sounds like he's been on JN! 

There's reasons why Cousins works here in NY, on some levels. There's also reasons why it's stupid, on other levels. 

I wish the Cousins Club would acknowledgement that. 

[19andOhWait]

0-2 in the playoffs if you count his 3-10, 31 yard performance filling in for RG3 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Freemanm said:

 

The man he could replace, Josh McCown, went 3-4 last season versus winning teams -- and he made $18 million less than Cousins.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/74749/an-alarming-kirk-cousins-trend-that-should-give-jets-pause

 

Besides all the other nonsense, this is the kind of lazy  reporting that makes people think that Maccagnan got some kind of coup with Josh McCown.  Josh McCown did not make $18M less than Cousins.  Cousins made $23.9M.  Josh McCown made a guaranteed $6M, plus a bonus of $125k for every game where he played 50% of the snaps.  He would have earned $8M if he started all the games the way Cousins does, instead he earned $7,625,000.  What a bargain! 

Sure, $2M isn't that much money, but it would have been the difference between say Stefen Wiesnewski and Wesley Johnson.  This front office obviously does not scout QBs based on winning being the primary job or they would never have signed McCown who can't even beat sh*tty teams.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, Bleedin Green said:

While I certainly won't dispute that Cousins is definitely not in the conversation for league's best, despite that he will soon be paid as such, or even top 5, but as unbelievably vital as a QB is to the NFL these days, the concept of evaluating based solely on record, be it for purposes of credit or blame, is an excessively flawed mindset that is proven to be wrong time and time again.  Nick Foles isn't the league's best either, and certainly not better than Brady, but we all know how it ended thanks to another 52 players on each team.  This is hardly some unprecedented situation; we've seen both talented teams carry crappy QBs to good records, and better QBs dragged down by a lack of help.  It's not exactly like the Redskins have the greatest track record over the past couple of decades, with or without Cousins.

Now is Cousins a savior?  No, but it's really without question that if he ends up somewhere with a better supporting cast, you would "shockingly" see an improvement in his own, and his new team's, records.  I have no hate for McCown, but using him as an example in this case does more to disprove the theory than support it.

But evaluating on yardage is far far worse.

[FidelioJet]

Connecting wins and losses to any individual football player is foolish 

Not if it’s a QB. Paying a little sing QB $150mm is ludicrous.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Greensleeves]

1 hour ago, Bleedin Green said:

While I certainly won't dispute that Cousins is definitely not in the conversation for league's best, despite that he will soon be paid as such, or even top 5, but as unbelievably vital as a QB is to the NFL these days, the concept of evaluating based solely on record, be it for purposes of credit or blame, is an excessively flawed mindset that is proven to be wrong time and time again.  Nick Foles isn't the league's best either, and certainly not better than Brady, but we all know how it ended thanks to another 52 players on each team.  This is hardly some unprecedented situation; we've seen both talented teams carry crappy QBs to good records, and better QBs dragged down by a lack of help.  It's not exactly like the Redskins have the greatest track record over the past couple of decades, with or without Cousins.

Now is Cousins a savior?  No, but it's really without question that if he ends up somewhere with a better supporting cast, you would "shockingly" see an improvement in his own, and his new team's, records.  I have no hate for McCown, but using him as an example in this case does more to disprove the theory than support it.

You know what it does say? It says he can not elevate players around him like the best QBs can. That's more than enough of a reason to take a talented rookie that has better physical skills and shoot for the moon instead of settling. This is not Andrew Luck we are talking about.

[JoJoTownsell1]

This is confusing. Should I be nervous that Cousins isn't that good or should I be nervous that teams like the Broncos/Vikings/Jags will try to steal him away because they think he will lead them to a Super Bowl??

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Cousins is a pretty good qb who is still relatively young.  I thought Evan Roberts had a great statistical comparison between Brees his first several years in SD and Cousins in Washington — Cousins actually has better stats

 

Now is Cousins going to be as good as Brees? Probably not but I’ll take pretty good

 

 

Matt Ryan is actually a great statistical comp for Cousins.  Like if I showed you both of their 3-year combined stats, you would be indifferent to which was which.

[FidelioJet]

Matt Ryan is actually a great statistical comp for Cousins.  Like if I showed you both of their 3-year combined stats, you would be indifferent to which was which.

Except Ryan has won playoff games and has a career winning record.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[JetFaninMI]

Oh geez another Kirk Cousins thread. I can't wait for the Vikings to sign this guy so we can move on to the draft.

[Gastineau Lives]

11 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Except Ryan has won playoff games and has a career winning record.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Yup, and football is tennis, chess, golfing, boxing, MMA.

[nycdan]

18 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Except Ryan has won playoff games and has a career winning record.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

And so the question we can't seem to agree on is...if you switched Cousins and Ryan right now, would the winning follow the QB or the teams around them?  Before anyone answers incorrectly...the correct answer is - we can't know...all we can do is guess/conjecture/surmise.  Feel free to do that as loudly as you want.

[#27TheDominator]

24 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Except Ryan has won playoff games and has a career winning record.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Not a particularly fair comparison.  Ryan has been in the league since 2008.  Cousins came out in 2012, but has been a full-time starter for only 3 years.  How long did it take Ryan to win a playoff game?  Answer: Not until the 2012 season, after 5 years as a starter, and that was home against a Seattle team that was pitiful on the road. He did not win his second playoff game until 2016, after 9 years in the league.   

[Bleedin Green]

41 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

But evaluating on yardage is far far worse.

The bottom line is there is no single item that can be looked at in a vacuum to make these kind of evaluations, whether it is wins, yardage, or anything else.  The only times there is ever any logic to that being done is when it is in an attempt to justify an already made conclusion.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't blame anyone who is opposed to committing to Cousins for what he will undoubtedly cost, but I just think what Cimini is trying to push here is a bit of a logical fallacy.

[MDL_JET]

52 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

This is confusing. Should I be nervous that Cousins isn't that good or should I be nervous that teams like the Broncos/Vikings/Jags will try to steal him away because they think he will lead them to a Super Bowl??

You should be nervous that if Cousins signs somewhere else, we still don't have an answer at QB...    

[BrickTamland]

28 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Not a particularly fair comparison.  Ryan has been in the league since 2008.  Cousins came out in 2012, but has been a full-time starter for only 3 years.  How long did it take Ryan to win a playoff game?  Answer: Not until the 2012 season, after 5 years as a starter, and that was home against a Seattle team that was pitiful on the road. He did not win his second playoff game until 2016, after 9 years in the league.   

Ryan is not a good playoff qb. I would not pay him. Falcons have been amongst the most talented Offensive teams. Ryan and the defense take turns choking 

[BornJetsFan1983]

2 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

While I certainly won't dispute that Cousins is definitely not in the conversation for league's best, despite that he will soon be paid as such, or even top 5, but as unbelievably vital as a QB is to the NFL these days, the concept of evaluating based solely on record, be it for purposes of credit or blame, is an excessively flawed mindset that is proven to be wrong time and time again.  Nick Foles isn't the league's best either, and certainly not better than Brady, but we all know how it ended thanks to another 52 players on each team.  This is hardly some unprecedented situation; we've seen both talented teams carry crappy QBs to good records, and better QBs dragged down by a lack of help.  It's not exactly like the Redskins have the greatest track record over the past couple of decades, with or without Cousins.

Now is Cousins a savior?  No, but it's really without question that if he ends up somewhere with a better supporting cast, you would "shockingly" see an improvement in his own, and his new team's, records.  I have no hate for McCown, but using him as an example in this case does more to disprove the theory than support it.

Wrong he is a Savior

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, BrickTamland said:

Ryan is not a good playoff qb. I would not pay him. Falcons have been amongst the most talented Offensive teams. Ryan and the defense take turns choking 

Matt Ryan postseason without Julio Jones 0-2 192.5 ypg 3TD-4INT

With Julio Jones 4-4 286 ypg,  17TD/3INT

I guess that trade up may have been worthwhile, no matter what Belichick thinks.  Matt Ryan is much different in the post-season without Julio who has 6 TDs and 834 yards in 8 games.  Never less than 59 yards and 3 100 yard games, 2 of them over 180. 

[pajet]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

 

 

Except Ryan has won playoff games and has a career winning record.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Matt Ryan never won a playoff game until he did.

[BrickTamland]

14 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Matt Ryan postseason without Julio Jones 0-2 192.5 ypg 3TD-4INT

With Julio Jones 4-4 286 ypg,  17TD/3INT

I guess that trade up may have been worthwhile, no matter what Belichick thinks.  Matt Ryan is much different in the post-season without Julio who has 6 TDs and 834 yards in 8 games.  Never less than 59 yards and 3 100 yard games, 2 of them over 180. 

I know youre stating facts. But its also factual to say that he never won a game until 2012, at which point he won 1 game. Then he missed the playoffs until 2016. He won one game up until 2016!!! Thats horrific with the teams they have had for a supposed franchise qb.

Then in 2016 he was absolutely on a tear until he contributed to that disastrous choke job.

In that span he has worked with arguably the games best WR in Julio, and roddy white and a HOF TE in gonzalez and excellent RBs.

Im not down with ryan

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Not a particularly fair comparison.  Ryan has been in the league since 2008.  Cousins came out in 2012, but has been a full-time starter for only 3 years.  How long did it take Ryan to win a playoff game?  Answer: Not until the 2012 season, after 5 years as a starter, and that was home against a Seattle team that was pitiful on the road. He did not win his second playoff game until 2016, after 9 years in the league.   

And there is no comparison between the teams that Ryan has played for...

 

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

This is confusing. Should I be nervous that Cousins isn't that good or should I be nervous that teams like the Broncos/Vikings/Jags will try to steal him away because they think he will lead them to a Super Bowl??

I think it's all about "best fit"... If you take away the elite class of QBs (that can right just about any ship), then its just really about what team is in the right spot, with the cast and management for a guy like Cousins. NYJ/DEN/MIN represent different situations. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

I think it's all about "best fit"... If you take away the elite class of QBs (that can right just about any ship), then its just really about what team is in the right spot, with the cast and management for a guy like Cousins. NYJ/DEN/MIN represent different situations. 

Agreed. I was just pointing out that in this time of year you get reports that Cousins isn't worth that much or he is worth 60 million guaranteed. You get people saying that the Vikings want him to make a run at the Super Bowl or that he isn't a winning QB. The reports coming out are literally all over the map. I can't wait until the Cousins decision is made, one way or the other and we can move on to the fake stories about who the Jets will draft at 6. 

[Maxman]

My concern about Cousins is his TD numbers. he is always in the 20's. I know he will not be in the 40's but somewhere in the 35 range would be nice.

2 to 1 TD \ INT, he is pretty close to that. Good numbers. But concerns me a bit at that contract level.

I am basically going to be happy to root for him to improve is they sign him, but won't be distraught if he goes elsewhere.