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MacCagnan's valuation history of the QB position


Integrity28
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8 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I wasn't going to touch this but I'm thoroughly convinced Rex pushed for John Connor, Stephen Hill, Tajh Boyd, and Calvin Pryor because "Man look at these guys" I think the Ducasse pick was 100% on Tanny though. Ultimately falls to the GM even though I agree with you.

That's funny because I remember reading how Rex was incensed when they took Hill and hated the pick.  The story was Rex got a pick a year and they included Connor, Boyd and Scotty McKnight.  I do not for one second believe that Pryor was on Rex. 

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13 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Someone explain the rationale behind Jamal Adams being the best player in the draft? Who thought that and why?

Because he is a leader of men. The first guy in and last guy out. Really cares. A lunch pail type guy. A winner. Great bloodline. Plays the game the right way. Plays much faster than his timed speed. Gym rat. Unparalleled intangibles. High Football IQ. A real gamer. Relentless motor. Has no quit in him. Gets the most out of his abilities. He's a guy you'd want your daughter to date.

All of this and no interceptions.

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I like the theme "Mac has gotten some good players, like Leo, Lee, and Adams" because netting 3 decent player in 3 years via the draft, all picked in the first 20(?) picks is "doing a good job"? I my world, we call that marginal competency. 

When you sell an employer on "building through the draft", you have to do better.

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24 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Leo - Best play in draft, had Sheldon who was getting in trouble and Mo who wouldn't agree to a LTD

Smith - Geno had a big arm, Smith was the type of player that would take advantage of that. Geno got knocked out and then Smith tore his ACL after not having an injury history.

Lee - Our LBs might have been the slowest unit in 2015, we went out and got the fastest LB from the best defense in the country.

Hack - As I said this is the pick that hurts

Who cares if Mac went out and improved the speed at linebacker? Darron Lee still does not arrive any quicker than the old linebackers. He may be faster, but he takes horrible angles? Either way it's a wash and not an improvement. Even worse is the fact that Darron Lee even if his life depended on it cannot cover passing routes. It's like taking candy from a baby watching him get burned. It's so predictable you get set your watch by it.

If the draft were to take place over again, Darron Lee would never get selected before like the 5th or 6th round.

All of the other players above are either total busts (Smith, Hack) or mild disappointments - Leo.

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3 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Mac deferred his QB choice from last year to this year.  He preferred the choice of Cousins or 2018 draft class over Watson/Mahommes.  We'll see how it pans out.  If he hits, all is forgiven.

 

 

 

If Watson picks up where he left off, and doesn't look back... nothing is forgiven.

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19 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

2015

  • early round QBs were trash, but in the 4th round for some bizarre reason Mac saw fit to use draft capital to trade-up for Bryce Petty, who has subsequently been setup to fail since day 1
  • also gave up draft capital for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who despite his lucky season, was and is a trash QB

2016 

  • allowed Fitzpatrick and the offense to manipulate him into grossly over-paying for Fitz to return
  • drafted a broken Hack with the 2nd round pick, but...
  • refused to give up draft capital to trade up for Goff or Wentz
  • ignored college results and leadership qualities and passed on guys like Brissett and Prescott, who were drafted well after Hack

2017

  • paid good FA money for Josh McCown, who like Fitz is a career loser
  • elected to pass on Mahomes and Watson, guys who offensive-minded coaches traded up to get and who will walk into next season as unquestioned starting QBs
  • didn't get Petty or Hack on the field for any valuable snaps all season

2018

  • about to lose out on Kirk Cousins, even though the Vikings will pay him less, because the state of the Jets in Mac's tenure is even worse than Idzik

 

Discuss...

I don't know if the state of the Jets is worse than it was with Idzik, but the overall point is right on the money.  If Mac had neglected the QB position while putting a good young core together, it might be okay, because he'd have real a shot at Cousins.  Instead, he's neglected the QB position and failed to put a team together.  Now he's more ****ed than ****ed.

 

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17 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

He's had three offseasons to improve this team. 

We have no players at premium positions.  We have no quarterback, no edge-rusher, no cornerback and no offensive tackle.  

He could've had Mahomes or Lattimore last year, or he could've traded down, acquired another first rounder for this year (the year with all the quarterbacks), and taken TJ Watt or Ryan Ramczyk or Tre'Davious White.  

I think every 21st century GM should be graded on how they address those four positions: QB, O-tackle, Edge-Rusher & Cornerback.  Nearly every other position on the field is surplus.  

Exactly!  Even if you give him a pass for not getting a QB (and he shouldn't get a pass on Watson, who was sitting right there), what the **** did he do with the picks that he had?  

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The Good:  no Paxton; no Conner Cook; no Kiser; no expensive, long term, sucky vet like Glennon.

The Bad: Hack (OMG); Watson; 

The Indifferent :  Dak; Brissett  

The Hindsight: Can't crucify Mac for not trading from 20 to 1.  Its not easy.

Jury's out on Mahommes

If Mac hits this year, we won't care but wish we had Watson for sure right now.

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3 hours ago, Jetscreen said:

Understood and I agree. The 2017 draft should be off limits as they need time to develop. The 2015 and 2016 drafts, however, we can make assessments of those players. My assessment says Williams, Jenkins, and Shell or OK players. The rest are all below average. Not a single player out of both of those drafts have lived up to their draft position.

That's fair. I'm hoping Lee develops. Hack and Smith were bad picks. Hack was just awful but Smith has had injury problem. I'm not trying to convince anyone that Macc has done a terrific job in disguise or anything. I'm just still willing to give him this off season to move this in the right direction.

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51 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

That's fair. I'm hoping Lee develops. Hack and Smith were bad picks. Hack was just awful but Smith has had injury problem. I'm not trying to convince anyone that Macc has done a terrific job in disguise or anything. I'm just still willing to give him this off season to move this in the right direction.

 

52 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

That's fair. I'm hoping Lee develops. Hack and Smith were bad picks. Hack was just awful but Smith has had injury problem. I'm not trying to convince anyone that Macc has done a terrific job in disguise or anything. I'm just still willing to give him this off season to move this in the right direction.

I highly doubt Lee gets a second contract, or 5th year option for that matter

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

Dude...there were literally 15 options he could have made at QB since he's taken over.  Every team that has been QB-less has been ultra aggressive, except for Mac.  This isnt a debate.  It's proof solid based on facts.

He gutted a roster of players he acquired who all failed and were not long term solutions.  He made that bed.  Nobody else.  And that doesnt excuse not even attempting to fix the QB position with multiple options last year.

And I dont know how you cant state the bold while excusing Mac's non-attempts at finding a QB.

 

 

15 options? Who would those be? Mike Glennon? Jay Cutler? You're upset he hasn't made a move at the position but who should he have got is my point? You don't know what was or wasn't offered in draft trades. So to me the two big guys he passed on right now are Watson and Mahomes. We'll see how that works out. Saying he's not aggressive is an opinion, me and you have no idea what goes on behind closed doors so to say he isn't aggressive isn't totally fair IMO.

I state the bold because the point is that you have to truly believe in the guy you invest in before you do it. Not just take over a job and draft a QB or sign a QB to big money just to do it. You have to pick the right guy. If you believe in Watson or Mahomes then fine. But who are these other great options?

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3 hours ago, jgb said:

Watching 3 strikes go by is a strikeout.

I don't see the 3 strikes but ok. He gutted the roster entirely last year. Nobody expected the team to win. If you wanted him fired after 2016 then that's fair but if you were going to judge him on last year I don't know why you would. We knew they were going to be awful.

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2 hours ago, gEYno said:

Finding decent players at low-value positions with premium picks is not good drafting.  It's just minimizing your chances of busting in round 1 while not doing anything to meaningfully improve your chances of winning.  Anderson was a good UDFA signing, or at least he looked that way until we learned why a dude with his talent was an UDFA.  So, not exactly a huge win there.  The other guys you mentioned are on the roster, but that's about all you can say about them.

"The team is low on talent because we are week at some of the most crucial positions."  YES!  Exactly.  In 3 years, they haven't been addressed by the guy who's job it is to address them, and by the guy who you're defending here.  Seriously, your argument is basically, "Sure, there's no QB, no LT, no CB, no pass rush, but we have a SS who looks like he might be decent!"  And, it's incomprehensible why anyone is treating this upcoming season as if it were year 2...

Yes. He hasn't addressed them. Well actually he did in year 1 in FA. They crapped out on him in year 2 and he started a rebuild and is trying to build a team the way it should be IMO. I'm giving him a chance to go thru that rebuild. He made a mistake signing guys to expensive contracts when he first took over the team. If you want him fired for that then fine.

But i'm not going to penalize him for drafting 2 quality players in the first rounds in 2015 and 2017 just because they aren't deemed "high value" positions. You need safeties and D-Lineman to win games as well. Yeah, don't get me wrong, i'll replace Adams for a QB of equal value right now, same with Williams, but who were those guys that we could have had? I just don't see them. You're also underrating Adams, the idea that Adams might be decent isn't fair. He was drafted to be a high impact player. We'll see if he is. 

 

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2 hours ago, Bugg said:

You are missing the point. You can get a decent safety late in the draft or in FA. QB, doesn't happen. Defense under these rules as enforced, except for edge rushers like the Iggles have, simply isn't that important. Longer the play and game go on, more likely the defense goes into disarray and the offense makes  a play.If there's no pass rush, the receivers are going to get open. This is lost on a braindread "establish the run" moron like Todd Bowles, but I digress. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SHUTDOWN DEFENSE IN THE 2018 NFL. The best you could hope for is getting a decent pass rush going and limit the damage or make a game-changing play.  And definitely not nearly as important as a QB or edge or LT. 

And these "many people" are idiots who should not be employed by NFL teams in any capacity. They are scared, pussified bags of sheet, many who have been running the Jets since the day Mangini got canned. 

But show me the QB they could have taken instead of Adams? If you believe in Watson or Mahomes then fine. I didn't so i'm not going to get mad at Macc for not taking a guy I didn't want anyway. The idea that you can just get a decent safety anywhere isn't totally accurate but besides that Adams wasn't drafted to be a "decent safety". He was drafted to be a top player at his position. That's why the Jets drafted him. If they thought he only had a chance to be decent they never would have made the pick.

Again though, i'm not excusing Macc for any of the things you've mentioned. We need a QB, we need a pass rush, we have to get those things. We havent had a pass rusher of any real value since we traded Abraham. They don't grow on trees. I'm just not willing to move on from Macc yet. And I agree that there is no such thing as a shutdown defense in todays NFL. But that doesn't mean you don't need players like Adams.

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2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

It really doesn't.  He has had more opportunities to add players that will be here for the long haul, yet has added few. What players has he brought on board that you want here in 2020?   IMO, Williams, Jenkins, Adams, Maye - maybe Shell.  Anderson was one of his hits and he is a guy people are screaming they should cut ASAP.  Same with Erin Henderson and Marshall.  They looked like nice pickups, but one is a locker room destroyer and the other is suing the team.  That is it, despite having a full 53 to fill.  Carpenter and Winters are okay deals. Hurray!

Now contrast that with the resources that he has squandered on guys that didn't last their contract - Revis, Fitzpatrick, Skrine, Wilkerson, Gilchrist.  Who was worth their deal? He gave Cromartie $8M when the guy was playing on a 1/$3M deal.  Why the raise? Ijalana and Powell tested FA, bombed and came back on one year deals.  Why did either of them get real money?  If anybody else was going to pay them they would have done it in 2016.

We needed to spend a certain amount of guaranteed money in 2015 because of how little we spent the 2 previous years. The same thing needs to happen between this year and next year other wise we have to cut a check for the difference to the NFLPA. This is what people refer to as the cap floor. 

Cash spending 2015 & 2018

As for players I want to be here in 2020, I agree with the list you have but I'd include Lee, I think it would be foolish to not want him here, he'll still be on his rookie deal. There doesn't need to be many players that stick, those are the players I want to be good players for us. We didn't get good players outside of Mo and Sheldon from the Rex era and we saw how those went side ways (even though I still believe in Sheldon)

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3 hours ago, Jetscreen said:

I've already admitted that the draft picks have been better under Mac than they were under Idzik or Tanny. Stop going on about the past, that's ancient history. Everyone is so willing to blame every one of their problems on a past HC and a past GM. When does Mac start taking responsibility for his own mistakes?

I'm not debating the thought process behind taking X player, what I am saying is that the results have still been very underwhelming. This is NOT the way to build a contender. The Jets team is floundering as a 5-11 team. Mac's job is to make the Jets SB winners. 3 years into his tenure the team is still every bit as bad as they were under John Idzik.

Agree to disagree then, I just think you can't be handed a flaming pile of dog crap and turn it into a winner immediately. Heck it took the Jags 5 years to field a contender and even then they had to go against the weakest SoS to get there. I'm of the opinion you can grade a draft class 3 years out but grading a team as if it were a final product only 3 years removed is premature especially without a QB. I'd say after this season if we don't know beyond a shadow of a doubt who our QB is for the future and who the core players on offense and defense are then Mac will have failed and deserves to be fired.

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21 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

2015

  • early round QBs were trash, but in the 4th round for some bizarre reason Mac saw fit to use draft capital to trade-up for Bryce Petty, who has subsequently been setup to fail since day 1
  • also gave up draft capital for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who despite his lucky season, was and is a trash QB

2016 

  • allowed Fitzpatrick and the offense to manipulate him into grossly over-paying for Fitz to return
  • drafted a broken Hack with the 2nd round pick, but...
  • refused to give up draft capital to trade up for Goff or Wentz
  • ignored college results and leadership qualities and passed on guys like Brissett and Prescott, who were drafted well after Hack

2017

  • paid good FA money for Josh McCown, who like Fitz is a career loser
  • elected to pass on Mahomes and Watson, guys who offensive-minded coaches traded up to get and who will walk into next season as unquestioned starting QBs
  • didn't get Petty or Hack on the field for any valuable snaps all season

2018

  • about to lose out on Kirk Cousins, even though the Vikings will pay him less, because the state of the Jets in Mac's tenure is even worse than Idzik

 

Discuss...

There's nothing else to say. In any other professional, this would be unacceptable talent management. His job is talent management.

We are going into the draft this year with ALL of the needs from last year's draft -- plus more. Sorry. Minus Safety.

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59 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

We needed to spend a certain amount of guaranteed money in 2015 because of how little we spent the 2 previous years. The same thing needs to happen between this year and next year other wise we have to cut a check for the difference to the NFLPA. This is what people refer to as the cap floor. 

Cash spending 2015 & 2018

As for players I want to be here in 2020, I agree with the list you have but I'd include Lee, I think it would be foolish to not want him here, he'll still be on his rookie deal. There doesn't need to be many players that stick, those are the players I want to be good players for us. We didn't get good players outside of Mo and Sheldon from the Rex era and we saw how those went side ways (even though I still believe in Sheldon)

Haven't we had this discussion before?  This is not a thing. 

To have enough cash spending, all you have to do is dick with some players salaries, change some future salary to signing bonuses and voila! 

They never had to spend a ******* thing in 2015 because the cap floor comes in 4 year increments and the period ended in 2016.  Your own ******* article says that.  Likewise, they don't have to spend it this year, but can make it up in 2019. 

Finally, and most importantly, THEY COULD HAVE SPENT THE MONEY ON GOOD PLAYERS. You know, people you'd want to have around in a couple of years.  Having to spend is no excuse on getting sh*t value.  He spent so ******* much in 2015, that they didn't have any money to sign that bearded piece of sh*t and had to **** with other contracts, including Mo.  Imagine if a real QB was available!  Assuming they want to extend some guys, there are no players really worth extending.  That was my point about players that you want here in 2020.  Who is outperforming their contract?  

You'd want Lee because he'd be on his rookie deal?  Not really.  He will be on the 5th year option, assuming they pick it up.  It's a no-brainer to want Beckham back at $8.5M, but do you really want Lee at $8.7M?  That number is only going to go up.

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3 hours ago, dcJet said:

Mac deferred his QB choice from last year to this year.  He preferred the choice of Cousins or 2018 draft class over Watson/Mahommes.  We'll see how it pans out.  If he hits, all is forgiven.

 

 

 

I thought it was right move at the time. I think I still do

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9 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Haven't we had this discussion before?  This is not a thing. 

To have enough cash spending, all you have to do is dick with some players salaries, cahnge some future salary to signing bonuses and voila! 

They never had to spend a ******* thing in 2015 because the cap floor comes in 4 year increments and the period ended in 2016.  Your own ******* article says that.  Likewise, they don't have to spend it this year, but can make it up in 2019. 

Finally, and most importantly, THEY COULD HAVE SPENT THE MONEY ON GOOD PLAYERS. You know, people you'd want to have around in a couple of years.  Having to spend is no excuse on getting sh*t value.  He spent so ******* much in 2015, that they didn't have any money to sign that bearded piece of sh*t and had to **** with other contracts, including M.  Imagine if a real QB was available!  Assuming they want to extend some guys, there are no players really worth extending.  That was my point about players that you want here in 2020.  Who is outperforming their contract?  

You'd want Lee because he'd be on his rookie deal?  Not really.  He will be on the 5th year option, assuming they pick it up.  It's a no-brainer to want Beckham back at $8.5M, but do you really want Lee at $8.7M?  That number is only going to go up.

I can't tell you if Lee will be worth his 5th year option at this point. You asked who I would want here in 2020 and the answer is as many players as possible because that means they have played well. (hopefully we wouldn't be extending bad players)

Yes the first 4 year period has been hit, it reset in 2017. 89% Rule

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22 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I can't tell you if Lee will be worth his 5th year option at this point. You asked who I would want here in 2020 and the answer is as many players as possible because that means they have played well. (hopefully we wouldn't be extending bad players)

Yes the first 4 year period has been hit, it reset in 2017. 89% Rule

So regarding Lee, you want him to worth it, but you can't tell me you think he is worth $8M now.  

I don't need any articles on the salary floor.  I need to understand why you think it is a valid reason to overpay stiffs.  There is no reason to give money to guys that you want gone a year or two later.  The fact that the new 4-year period started in 2017 makes the overspend even more egregious.  He blew all that money because "he had to," but then he didn't have enough money to get who he wanted in 2016?  Seems like a poor management strategy to me.

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On 3/6/2018 at 6:54 PM, Integrity28 said:

2015

  • early round QBs were trash, but in the 4th round for some bizarre reason Mac saw fit to use draft capital to trade-up for Bryce Petty, who has subsequently been setup to fail since day 1
  • also gave up draft capital for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who despite his lucky season, was and is a trash QB

2016 

  • allowed Fitzpatrick and the offense to manipulate him into grossly over-paying for Fitz to return
  • drafted a broken Hack with the 2nd round pick, but...
  • refused to give up draft capital to trade up for Goff or Wentz
  • ignored college results and leadership qualities and passed on guys like Brissett and Prescott, who were drafted well after Hack

2017

  • paid good FA money for Josh McCown, who like Fitz is a career loser
  • elected to pass on Mahomes and Watson, guys who offensive-minded coaches traded up to get and who will walk into next season as unquestioned starting QBs
  • didn't get Petty or Hack on the field for any valuable snaps all season

2018

  • about to lose out on Kirk Cousins, even though the Vikings will pay him less, because the state of the Jets in Mac's tenure is even worse than Idzik

 

Discuss...

when you're right you're right bro.

Dumpster fire organization that can't ever get a QB it's godamned unbelievable.

Maybe we should force this organization to keep drafting 2 QBs every year from the first 4 picks until we hit on one.

Garbage, garbage, garbage.

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22 hours ago, CotcheryifyouCan said:

the hack pick along with fitz holding the franchise hostage will end both these guys career. i hope im wrong and they knock it out of the park this offseason, but those two moves will live in infamy 

The Hack pick is the one that's killed him. 

It's bad that he used up a 2nd rounder on someone who seems to be historically bad. It's bad, but life goes on. 

However, the error was compounded because we basically ignored QB in last years draft because we were doing the Hack experiment. So instead of Watson or Mahomes, we took Adams (I'm a big fan of Adams btw, but I'm not stupid - a franchise QB is miles better). 

 

So not only did he waste a 2nd round pick on a bad QB. He doubled down on that bad QB and cost us a shot at a potentially brilliant young QB. 

He HAS to hit on a QB this year or he is gone. 

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10 hours ago, CTM said:

Wow. When you think about it in these terms, that's actually prodigious levels of incompetence.

Perhaps instead of scorn, we should be celebrating the clear genius we are privileged to witness. Not any old boob can be this bad, it takes someone uniquely adept at it to reach these levels.

The answer is simple:  Pac is Mike Maccagnan, in disguise.  

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7 hours ago, T0mShane said:

This is a good question, how these things germinate. Nothing about Adams’ college performance indicated that he was ever going to be a difference making player.

It's weird.  I don't watch college football regularly, so I only know about these guys from what I read up on.  But, I watched his highlights after the Jets picked him, and couldn't understand why he was so highly sought after.  Seems like a nice player, but literally nothing jumped out on his tape.  And that's kind of exactly what he is as a pro.  Seems like a guy we could have gotten in the 3rd round.

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On 3/6/2018 at 5:54 PM, Integrity28 said:

2015

  • early round QBs were trash, but in the 4th round for some bizarre reason Mac saw fit to use draft capital to trade-up for Bryce Petty, who has subsequently been setup to fail since day 1
  • also gave up draft capital for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who despite his lucky season, was and is a trash QB

2016 

  • allowed Fitzpatrick and the offense to manipulate him into grossly over-paying for Fitz to return
  • drafted a broken Hack with the 2nd round pick, but...
  • refused to give up draft capital to trade up for Goff or Wentz
  • ignored college results and leadership qualities and passed on guys like Brissett and Prescott, who were drafted well after Hack

2017

  • paid good FA money for Josh McCown, who like Fitz is a career loser
  • elected to pass on Mahomes and Watson, guys who offensive-minded coaches traded up to get and who will walk into next season as unquestioned starting QBs
  • didn't get Petty or Hack on the field for any valuable snaps all season

2018

  • about to lose out on Kirk Cousins, even though the Vikings will pay him less, because the state of the Jets in Mac's tenure is even worse than Idzik

 

Discuss...

Macc should have traded wildly but eventually went with his heart and drafted Vontae Mack and Ray Jennings.

Super Bowl!

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