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MacCagnan's valuation history of the QB position


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9 minutes ago, CTM said:

Stop being a child. There's a large area between terrible player and terrible draft pick that most of us occupy and you pretend doesn't exist.
 

Huh?  I respectfully said I disagree with his assessment of the roster and intimated we would be on the same side of the fence next year when the Jets win 10 games.  EY may be wrong a lot of the time but he's not a dope..  he'll acquiesce if proven wrong. 

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2015 early round QBs were trash, but in the 4th round for some bizarre reason Mac saw fit to use draft capital to trade-up for Bryce Petty, who has subsequently been setup to fail since day 1

While most teams use their premium picks for premium positions like QB and pass rusher and try to find late-round starters at OG, S, DT and ILB, we do the opposite.  That is Macc's strategy, following

But he did have a legit chance.  He passed on two QBs at 6 that were eventually drafted at 10 and 12 both by teams that invested more picks to trade up to get them.  Both of them saw the field and one

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Just now, Pac said:

Huh?  I respectfully said I disagree with his assessment of the roster and intimated we would be on the same side of the fence next year when the Jets win 10 games.  EY may be wrong a lot of the time but he's not a dope..  he'll acquiesce if proven wrong. 

 

No, you said us guys believe Adams is terrible

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30 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

It's definitely his job to find a franchise QB but i'm just not willing to pull the plug on him after 3 seasons. If he drafted a QB in year 1 or 2 in the 1st and that guy is clearly a bust then it would be different.

Wish you were my boss

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3 minutes ago, dcJet said:

I can tell you're not a boss.  No one would ever be perfect enough to work for you.

I draw the line at 2 years of ineptitude. Woody Johnson school of management is let the guy show us he's a loser then hand him $100M to triple confirm it it by wiping out the franchise's future for the next five years. 

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Look, I'm not in love with the job Mac has done but - but there is an reasonable explanation for why we're where we are in year 3.  And I can not entirely fault Mac for it. 

Frankly, he's doing in year 3 what he should have done in year 1 - but wasn't allowed to due to that stupid "competitive rebuild" idea - which only existed because fans, like most here, screamed to fire Idzik because he was rebuilding the right way.

If we don't come away with one of the five - Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Allen - then I'll make the first donation for the billboard -Nothing else is acceptable other than one of those 5 -  but I'm optimistic Mac is going to get this right.   

Not entirely fault him for it. You're right. There is never one factor. But he's an ex-head scout and the ONLY contributors he has "found" were Kiper consensus best available when it was his turn to select in the 1st. I'm sorry but that's not pro-level gem finding.

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

Call it simplistic but no franchise QB after 3 years = fail. Could I do better? No. But I'm not an NFL GM. He's supposed to be good at this and is paid like it.

Teams that have found their starting QBs since 2015:

TB, TN, LAR, Phi, Dal, Chi, KC, & Hou.  

Basically 1/4 of the entire league.  So now because we won 5 games with a bunch of short term Jags, we either trade a ton of draft capital to get our QB, or we sit back and take the leftovers after Cle, Den, and possibly the NYG grab theirs.  Unless a team like Buffalo or Miami move up.  

Then we are looking at Teddy Bridgewater as the face of the franchise until training camp when his leg falls off.

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Just now, Pcola said:

Teams that have found their starting QBs since 2015:

TB, TN, LAR, Phi, Dal, Chi, KC, & Hou.  

Basically 1/4 of the entire league.  So now because we won 5 games with a bunch of short term Jags, we either trade a ton of draft capital to get our QB, or we sit back and take the leftovers after Cle, Den, and possibly the NYG grab theirs.  Unless a team like Buffalo or Miami move up.  

Then we are looking at Teddy Bridgewater as the face of the franchise until training camp when his leg falls off.

You've discovered why the average NFL GM tenure is less than 3 years.

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

I honestly don't get how he has any defenders. By any objective measure we are basically in the same place as we were 3 years ago, 

I think Macc defenders put too much weight in the things like Ownership "pressuring" him to field a competitive team in 2015 -- thereby stunting the rebuilding process. They keep coming back to that as a reason for more time...

Even IF that is a legitimate excuse, a good GM can still stoke the fires of youth/rebuilding during that phase. Not saying it's easy, but good GMs are good Talent Management Directors. That's their job. It's a like a contractor saying -- well I had soooo much work to do on this contract that i couldn't order supplies for the next job... No, you're just not a very good contractor. 

You can't draft like sh*t and get away with it. 

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26 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Teams that have found their starting QBs since 2015:

TB, TN, LAR, Phi, Dal, Chi, KC, & Hou.  

Basically 1/4 of the entire league.  So now because we won 5 games with a bunch of short term Jags, we either trade a ton of draft capital to get our QB, or we sit back and take the leftovers after Cle, Den, and possibly the NYG grab theirs.  Unless a team like Buffalo or Miami move up.  

Then we are looking at Teddy Bridgewater as the face of the franchise until training camp when his leg falls off.

Chicago? Tampa? Houston?

Edit: OK you didn’t mean franchise QB

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2 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Criticize is all most do around here I would love to see what all the critical thinkers have to say and how the players they think would make a difference pan out. problem is we never see that here. All we see is the Negative with no real ideas or possibilities put forth . Its a great way to keep complaining without ever having to answer for anything.

Well, the Jets have been far more successful at making all of the WRONG moves. Perhaps if they started doing things right, there would be a lot more praise for their moves? 

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3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I think Macc defenders put too much weight in the things like Ownership "pressuring" him to field a competitive team in 2015 -- thereby stunting the rebuilding process. They keep coming back to that as a reason for more time...

Even IF that is a legitimate excuse, a good GM can still stoke the fires of youth/rebuilding during that phase. Not saying it's easy, but good GMs are good Talent Management Directors. That's their job. It's a like a contractor saying -- well I had soooo much work to do on this contract that i couldn't order supplies for the next job... No, you're just not a very good contractor. 

You can't draft like sh*t and get away with it. 

It's not Macc's fault that Kiper didn't have a QB listed as best available when the Jets were on the clock 

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29 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Teams that have found their starting QBs since 2015:

TB, TN, LAR, Phi, Dal, Chi, KC, & Hou.  

Basically 1/4 of the entire league.  So now because we won 5 games with a bunch of short term Jags, we either trade a ton of draft capital to get our QB, or we sit back and take the leftovers after Cle, Den, and possibly the NYG grab theirs.  Unless a team like Buffalo or Miami move up.  

Then we are looking at Teddy Bridgewater as the face of the franchise until training camp when his leg falls off.

It's still TBD w/ TB, Chi, KC and Hou.  let's not act like those guys are sure things now. You can even say it's TBD w/ Dallas the way their QB took a step back in 2017.  I think all those QBs will be fine long term but there's a long way to go for many of them.

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51 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Stop with the Mac shouda traded up for Wentz/Goff crap.   Reeks of hindsight.

Bust Mac's balls for passing on Watson.  That's what will get him fired.

didn't we draft around #20 that year? can you imagine the reaction from everyone had we moved up? we would have given up most of our draft to move up(slight exaggeration) and those QBs wouldn't have had the talent around them they have now nor the coaching and likely would have looked very different thus Jet fans and the media would have already run Goff/Wentz out of town and we'd bash Macc for making such a stupid move.

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3 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

give me a run down of what you think would be good moves this off season . 

Regardless of the odds who do you want at QB ? 

Who do you want to sure up the Oline ?

Who do you want at WR and at RB ?

Criticize is all most do around here I would love to see what all the critical thinkers have to say and how the players they think would make a difference pan out. problem is we never see that here. All we see is the Negative with no real ideas or possibilities put forth . Its a great way to keep complaining without ever having to answer for anything. 

My choice at QB is Josh Rosen who's your's ?

I would like to see the OL upgraded with Jensen and a few second round picks

I would also like to see the Jets target a WR in free agency and a RB in round 2 as well.

Is that far fetched ? If we get Cousins I would like to see all the same things happen but maybe luck into Chubbs or Barkley at 6

Once again a little luck needed but not that far fetched.

 

I dunno dude, i think there's a significant portion of posters who that's all they do - is explore solutions or propose options. I don't think that's fair to say. Sure you get a handful of short and snippy jabs - but also of long winded "here's a scenario where the jets address A/B/C

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Bottom line for me is Mac been so-so at best in regards to drafting. Overall he's probably a little below average as a GM. Certainly not good enough to build a winner, but not smoking gun bad enough to fire. Woody is probably holding on for the sake of stability and hoping Mac will get better.

Bowles is a horrible HC. Why Woody hasn't fired him already continues to escape me? Perhaps he's holding on to him for the sake of stability?

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2 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

I'm not going to penalize a guy for trades that may or may not have been there to be made. You want to get on him for passing on Watson and Mahomes then that's fair but to me I don't think not making a potential trade to move up to number 1 is a fireable offense.

What if i told you THAT trade WAS there to be made. And he passed on it because they wanted an extra 3rd. So Wentz, or extra 3rd.

Yes, Macc needs heat for that. 

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1 hour ago, Pac said:

I just showed you all the QB's drafted the last few years.  Exactly 1 team has found their QB that Macc was in a position to draft (Cowboys).  He aggressively tried to trade up for the best looking QB the last few years and was outbid.  So much for not being able to see talent at QB.

All that said I'm switching to your side if Macc misses out on Cousins then refuses to draft a QB at 6.  I just don't see that happening.

 

So you're completely discounting Watson and Mahomes, and don't acknowledge Goff and Wentz were doable with a modest bumped up trade offer; Richardson was traded and Wilkerson was cut eventually anyway.Any of thsoe 4 would be better than any QB on the Jets' roster during GM Coffee Boy's tenure. Could've signed Foles on 2 occasions or dealt for Cousins in years past as well. Or signed Kennum over McCown. Also you, with the BAP nonsense you are buying, wish to pretend Williams is Ngata, Adams is Polamalu(they're both solid decent but not superstar players) and well, Lee pretty much sucks no matter how you cut it. 

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1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

just goes to show you how the low the bar is set by the former gms on this team.  that's what happens when your first round picks are sanchez/gholston/kyle wilson/sheldon/milliner and throw in 2nd round failures which are too sad to list.  so if mccags drafts williams/adams and a few other guys who are contributing, that's enough to give the guy another shot.  and then mccags gets in the owners' ears and says he hasn't really tried yet to get a franchise qb, but this year is the year.  and now here we are, he's down to his last draft if he screws it up and hopefully cousins doesn't give him a free pass from having to draft a qb.

The ridiculousness of only looking at players we were in a position to get is awesome. So if LA decided not to pull the trigger on an offer to move-up to #1, would Rams fans then claim they weren’t in a position to draft Goff (or Wentz) because they only had the 15th pick? We know the offer was there, and we had more to offer than the Rams did as well.

I said in another thread some time ago (I forget to whom), but even as I offer up a contrary view to theirs, I don’t really blame the fans. The team did this to them, where their idea of GM+HC success is one cushy season, filled with lucky and fortunate events after signing $100+million in new contracts to dead-end veterans, leading to a 10-win season with no playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

problem is that he hasn't taken a real shot at one yet.  a new gm usually gets more than 1 shot at finding a qb.  hack and petty don't count, a late 2nd and a 4th rounder.  so really, mccagnan now only gets 1 chance, this draft (assuming no cousins).  he screwed his own job security by not taking a chance on a qb early on and now it's a do or die for him in year 4.

I agree for the most part. That's why I think he gets this off season to get it right.

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3 minutes ago, Jetscreen said:

Bottom line for me is Mac been so-so at best in regards to drafting. 

What has he done right?

-two terrible QB selections. 1 that will be on NFL top 10 worst picks for the next 50 years.

-Leo and Adams? Helen Keller could have pulled that trigger. Zero strategy. One could even argue neither was the right pick for NYJ

-WR contributions Devin Smith (bad pick), and nobodies. TE that isn't great at either blocking or catching.

-Brandon Shell... i guess thats supposed to be a victory

-a collection of forgettable DBs

-A ILB playing out of position/scheme

-Stewart, a ridiculously over-drafted WR because of 'Bama -- while Kareem Hunt was on the board. Yes, there was many fists on tables that day yelling "Hunt"... he wasn't a secret. We needed a running back. He chose McGuire instead. 

-OG Jarvis harrison. Now in the CFL. 

-D. Simon... I guess that one is stripe on his shoulder?

-Robbie Anderson was not a Macc pick, and he's since shown to be moron

 

What am I missing? Mauldin... lol. Jenkins? What a terror he's been for opposing QBs.

 

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11 minutes ago, Paradis said:

What if i told you THAT trade WAS there to be made. And he passed on it because they wanted an extra 3rd. So Wentz, or extra 3rd.

Yes, Macc needs heat for that. 

Yeah but I don't think we know that for sure. Either way I'd still give him a chance to pick his guy for QB. 

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3 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Yeah but I don't think we know that for sure. Either way I'd still give him a chance to pick his guy for QB. 

But we do know. That was leaked from people that were there. 

I get it, give him a chance to pick "his" guy -- but what about his history of making picks at ANY position suggests that opportunity will be anything but wasted? Why does he "deserve" a shot to pick a QB? He's shown a total lack of competency in the draft room. 

HOU drafted well with him. Macc leaves. HOU continues to draft well. NYJ terrible...

HOU dodged a bullet. 

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29 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Chicago? Tampa? Houston?

Edit: OK you didn’t mean franchise QB

 

26 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

It's still TBD w/ TB, Chi, KC and Hou.  let's not act like those guys are sure things now. You can even say it's TBD w/ Dallas the way their QB took a step back in 2017.  I think all those QBs will be fine long term but there's a long way to go for many of them.

Houston won a playoff game last year and would have made the playoffs the year before.  Mariota is well on his way to being a FQB.

As for KC, Chi, and Hou - they were all aggressive in going after QBs they like.

Macc either is too timid to be aggressive, or he hasn’t been willing to commit to a QB.  It’s absolutely amazing that Macc and Bowles have survived three seasons of Fitz and McCown.

Now shockingly, Ownership is wondering why the fans aren’t going ping to the games.  

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4 minutes ago, Pcola said:

 

Houston won a playoff game last year and would have made the playoffs the year before.  Mariota is well on his way to being a FQB.

As for KC, Chi, and Hou - they were all aggressive in going after QBs they like.

Macc either is too timid to be aggressive, or he hasn’t been willing to commit to a QB.  It’s absolutely amazing that Macc and Bowles have survived three seasons of Fitz and McCown.

Now shockingly, Ownership is wondering why the fans aren’t going ping to the games.  

Houston was 4-12 last year, they looked really good w/ Watson but he barely played.

mariota looked good down the stretch and in the playoffs but still a bit unproven.

KC, Chi and Hou were aggressive but that doesn't mean they have long term answers.  I THINK they do but that is still to be proven.

Macc took a gamble on Hack and appears he lost.  he'll have a chance at a QB this offseason whether through the draft, FA or the draft and FA.  this is his shot to get it done, if he doesn't he won't be around much longer.

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5 minutes ago, Paradis said:

But we do know. That was leaked from people that were there. 

I get it, give him a chance to pick "his" guy -- but what about his history of making picks at ANY position suggests that opportunity will be anything but wasted? Why does he "deserve" a shot to pick a QB? He's shown a total lack of competency in the draft room. 

HOU drafted well with him. Macc leaves. HOU continues to draft well. NYJ terrible...

HOU dodged a bullet. 

If one laid out all the picks and FA pickups made from 2015-2017, I’m sure the “success” rate (certainly the success rate beyond 1 season) is approximately 5% (certainly no more than 10%) even with “success” graded on a ridiculous curve. Like the back-patting of Big Macc finding our starting, #2 CB in the 4th round in Burris and starting OLB in Mauldin found in round 3. See, it’s perfectly acceptable to call those picks successful + smart ones almost right away, yet it’s totally unfair to label Hackenberg and a dozen others as sucky after the same or greater amount of time.

So along these lines, as you point out, our big successes are Brandon Shell, Jordan Jenkins, and 3 lower-priority “BAP” selections that each cost our first round picks (including two of them at #6 overall). 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

So along these lines, as you point out, our big successes are Brandon Shell, Jordan Jenkins, and 3 lower-priority “BAP” selections that each cost our first round picks (including two of them at #6 overall). 

You could even say that ^^ is by chance. Even if you tried to suck, you'd still accidentally hit on a swing tackle like Shell, or rotation rusher like Jenkins. Leo pick was unnecessary and Adams was spineless. If you thought so highly of Maye, maybe a fcking QB would work at #6. 

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Honestly, I am almost willing to give Mac a pass on the Hack pick.  He knew the Jets needed a young QB, and he had the discipline to not take Lynch like everyone was telling him to.  Mac took a chance and lost, and he doesn't have enough hits to make up for it.  

To me, what makes this situation actionable is the weight of ALL of his draft picks.  If he missed on Hack and hit on some others, he would not be subject to the pillory that he is.  It would also appear that he did not do the work on Brissett and Prescott.  The teams that picked those players, who are known to have good scouts, were able to draft assets that the Jets were not.

Gettleman realized that the Giants scouting operation was a joke.  I think whomever replaces Mac will be shocked at how primitive the operation was.   If I had to guess, out of 32 NFL teams the Jets are bottom 5 in the use of analytics.  

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Look, I'm not in love with the job Mac has done but - but there is an reasonable explanation for why we're where we are in year 3.  And I can not entirely fault Mac for it. 

Frankly, he's doing in year 3 what he should have done in year 1 - but wasn't allowed to due to that stupid "competitive rebuild" idea - which only existed because fans, like most here, screamed to fire Idzik because he was rebuilding the right way.

If we don't come away with one of the five - Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Allen - then I'll make the first donation for the billboard -Nothing else is acceptable other than one of those 5 -  but I'm optimistic Mac is going to get this right.   

Still waiting on the explanation as to what part of "competitive rebuild" included poor drafting in years 1 and 2?

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2 hours ago, CTM said:

I honestly don't get how he has any defenders. By any objective measure we are basically in the same place as we were 3 years ago, so why are we thinking we'll do the same thing with the same guys and get a different result over the next 3 years? Banking on the broken clock theory?

Because people don't want to acknowledge how bad things are, but rather cling to some hope that one small fix, fire the coach, draft the QB this time, will make it all better.

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