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McShay Mock 3.0


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4 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Since Tom Shane is willing to carve his top six across his sternum, here is my current temporary tattoo:

1. Browns: Barkley - Browns will pull a calculated stunner. Browns need a qb but the best pure runner in many years, will not last past the Giants. The Browns go running back.

2. Giants: Allen — Rosen is way too thoughtful and articulate for the Giants. Yes he was born for the Manhattan life but Dave Gettleman likes his dancing bears. Dave sees  high speed impact at the line with Rosen ending up to the same fate as Grizzley Man, getting too close to those dancing bears. Gentlemen also likes Darnold a lot but he worries about those small surfer hands on wet winter Sundays in the swamp.

 Allen played his college ball at 2000' higher elevation than Mile High Stadium, this baby faced kid is like Jesus born in a barn surrounded by Shepherds and goat sh*t in a blizzard. He's a natural to play behind bears. He will prove many of us wrong and have a career closer to the spectrum of Eli Manning than Dave Brown. In the fifteen years ahead of Giants football, Josh will say nothing of importance which is the way the Giants like it. With his first pay check he will buy a PA hunting cabin with Carson Wentz and Christian Hackenberg.

3. Browns (trade w/Colts):  Darnold— Weird delivery, smallish hands  but a talented playmaker and an absolute gamer, it's not a hard pick for Dorsey. If the Giants go Darnold (which they very easily could), Josh Allen is the legitimate alternative here. Browns play in miserable weather and Josh Allen is never happier than when mercury drops precipitously.

4. Miami (trade with Colts): Despite all the accolades for Chubb at the combine, the Colts are concerned about his three cone numbers. Chris Ballard trades out again to give Frank Reich a windfall. Baker Mayfield— I have to go with Tom Shane's pairing here, just one spot later. Miami is excited about Mayfield and Mayfield is excited about Miami. Mayfield will be thrive in Adam Gase's offense, it makes way too much sense. Mayfield will have a long career.

The Alternate  here is that Ballard does not trade out. If he does not trade out, it is Bradley Chubb the best run defender in the draft goes to the Colts.

5. Broncos: Josh Rosen - John Elway would have preferred Darnold or Allen but he settles for the best passer in the draft. Josh Rosen goes house hunting in Denver while Allen goes after deer in New Jersey. 

The Alternate here if the Colts do not trade out, is the Broncos choosing Mayfield over Rosen. Imagine, Rosen sitting there for the Jets. Do the Jets pass on Rosen ? Possibly.

6. Jets: The Jets have lost out on the top four quarterbacks. Bradley Chubb anyone ?

 Statistics would tell you that at best two out of this years top four quarterbacks will bust but I expect an anomaly in 2018. Darnold will channel his best Jameis Winston and continue to throw interceptions. He will also do some Mark Sanchez butt fumbling but he will persevere and have a good if not great NFL career. He will play an important role in turning the Browns around and saving a bunch of front office jobs. Allen will never get beyond a 60% completion rate but he will be durable and play well enough to get the Giants to the playoffs multiple times. Mayfield will be a star in Miami but will be know as prickly and often hostile in the media. Miami will sniff a Super Bowl up close, sometimes a smell is all you need. Rosen will  miss  extended playing time due to injury but he will witness first hand Elway's horse grin reflected in a Super Bowl trophy at some point. He will retire early and write a behind the scenes book on the life of an indifferent football playing millionaire.

Washed up QB via Free Agency/DL value pick at 6....

 

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33 minutes ago, peebag said:

First off....Josh Allen second coming off Big Ben??? No.

Rosen ran as fast as Darnold in the 40...mobility looks good

And just because his comments on politics differs from yours, he has a "yuck" mouth? Who freakin' cares????

 

 

 

First off....Josh Allen second coming off Big Ben??? No.

I not going to insult your intelligence and say you have comprehension issues as your clearly just trying to place words in my mouth to help this weak argument you have here. I'll repeat what I said,

"We need someone with that Big Ben dynamic and big and strong enough to shed defenders."

With a weak OL I feel we need someone who's elusive and has the ability to scramble and bring a "Big Been dynamic."

Rosen ran as fast as Darnold in the 40...mobility looks good

What does this mean and how does running straight have to do with scrambling/ fluid lateral movement? Sam Bradford ran faster then both of them.

 

And just because his comments on politics differs from yours, he has a "yuck" mouth? Who freakin' cares????

What are my political views? How do you know them? I'll refrain for getting this hero sandwich and give this money instead to a random person and head back to work. The point is you don't know. My question was a general question to all Jets fans and a legit one. As for his yuck mouth, I'm more so responding how Woody or these conservative owners would view it as. When the mic is on Rosen, he's not afraid to talk up which personally is good. I'm not one of those shut up and play type of people. When social issue emerge and you have a voice you should open up about it. Something that most snow-flakes are against.

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2 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I think the Giants go Barkley, it feels like they want to see what Webb has. There is not as much pressure to take a QB because once Eli is done they can do what the Eagles did and give picks up for a top QB. That doesn't necessarily give them a franchise QB but he likely would have the same chance of success that any of these QBs could have. 

Browns - Darnold

Giants - Barkley

Colts trade with Jets - Josh Rosen/Josh Allen/Baker Mayfield

Browns - Minkah

Broncos - Nelson (I think signing Keenum in FA they will want to take players to gun for a SB, Nelson immediately helps that bad OL and gives Lynch another year.)

Colts - Chubb

This is a good way of looking at it.  The Broncos and Browns have Edge rushers, so they are unlikely to take Chubb.  If the Colts do not take Chubb at 3, he falls.  

I do agree with Shane that the Colts are more likely to take Barkley than Chubb-just a feeling.  

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

yeah and he's got Rosanne Barr's fresh mouth 

few NFL owner want to hear that crap from QB1 

certainly not Woodrow 

Out of all the red flags out there, I would think that "fresh mouth" is the one most Owners/GM's can live with.

Rosen's fragility is what scares me (but not enough for me to pass on at #6)

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2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The more I see people on this board hate on Allen, the more I want the Jets to take him. 

The White Jamarcus Russell. All he needs is a huge thick chub gold chain with a 5" X 7" cross.

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23 minutes ago, Jetster said:

The White Jamarcus Russell. All he needs is a huge thick chub gold chain with a 5" X 7" cross.

Russell had a 68% completion percentage his final season in college. It's safe to assume that 90% of Allen haters haven't watched a college football game in their lives and just blindly compare players. 

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5 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

The Jets have to move up, they can't sit around if QB's go 1 and 2.

If QB's go 1 and 2 I think Indy is a lock to take Barkley - too important to give Luck that type of weapon.

It's time for Cleveland to build their team and stop trading down - they take Chubb.

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10 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If QB's go 1 and 2 I think Indy is a lock to take Barkley - too important to give Luck that type of weapon.

It's time for Cleveland to build their team and stop trading down - they take Chubb.

The Browns already have Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah at DE.

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3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Taking a elite level talent - at a premium position - in which you're already strong isn't necessarily a bad idea.  and certainly not unprecedented.

Right, but if you already have good players at those spots and, as you say, they want to build their team, why not trade down a bit and accumulate more picks? If, for instance, Miami wants to come up from 11, Cleveland would still be in a great spot to add OL or a DB. 

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7 hours ago, Thai Jet said:

I should keep track of all the Allen, haters most of which I know have never seen him play, so I can throw it back at them when he becomes a stud QB.

You can add me to the top of that f*cking list and as someone who fell in love with (only to get burned) the first iteration of the big armed project (Hackenberg), and has watched pretty much every game of Allen's, trust me when I say that Josh Allen miraculously learning how to not over throw guys by 10-15 yards is not the hill you want to die on.

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http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/74937/crunching-numbers-on-jets-qb-options-from-cousins-to-mayfield

One of the great things about football is that, unlike baseball, it's difficult to base player evaluations on statistics. So many variables impact individual performance -- scheme, play design, other matchups, etc. -- that you can't expect two or three stats to tell a player's story. In football, a scout's eye still matters, and that's kind of cool.

That said, it never hurts to peek at the numbers.

Since the big story around the New York Jets is the quarterback position (what else is new?), I thought it would be interesting to compare how their quarterback options performed last season in specific situations.

We'll limit it to seven quarterbacks: three pros, free agents Kirk CousinsJosh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater; and four draft prospects, Josh AllenSam DarnoldBaker Mayfield and Josh Rosen. (Note: Bridgewater's last full season was 2015, so those stats are used.)

First-down passing

If a quarterback can't dominate on first down, he's got problems. He usually faces base personnel and fairly vanilla coverages, so the numbers should be large and impressive.

Third-down passing

This is the money down. It's also when defenses get creative and unleash exotic blitz packages, testing the quarterback's ability to diagnose quickly and react.

Fourth-quarter/OT passing

A quarterback needs the clutch gene. If he can't deliver in the crucible of the fourth quarter, his team never will win a championship.

Passing under pressure

Most quarterbacks look good when they have time to throw, but how do they fare when they're about to get blasted in the chest by a 300-pound lineman? The good ones stay cool and keep their eyes downfield. The others panic.

Conclusion: Based on this data, Mayfield is the clear winner among the draft prospects, as he led three of the four categories. Perhaps the biggest eye-opener: Allen really struggled in high-leverage situations -- third down, fourth quarter and under pressure. As for the pros, Cousins -- on the verge of a historic contract from someone -- led only one category, but he was the most consistent passer across the board.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information (College stats were converted to NFL passer rating)

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^That’s good stuff. Third down completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure are the two big ones, and both of them are awful for Rosen and Allen. I knew Allen would be bad there, but the low Rosen numbers are surprising.

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7 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

You can add me to the top of that f*cking list and as someone who fell in love with (only to get burned) the first iteration of the big armed project (Hackenberg), and has watched pretty much every game of Allen's, trust me when I say that Josh Allen miraculously learning how to not over throw guys by 10-15 yards is not the hill you want to die on.

Trying to get into mccagnan's head, assuming no cousins and that regardless of who they sign they're still taking a qb in the first round, i suspect he would prefer Rosen or darnold over the other two guys.  I can't see mccagnan staking his last gm stand on mayfield, and allen probably needs to sit the most and that's not what a gm whose job is on the line wants to do with his first round pick.

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7 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

You can add me to the top of that f*cking list and as someone who fell in love with (only to get burned) the first iteration of the big armed project (Hackenberg), and has watched pretty much every game of Allen's, trust me when I say that Josh Allen miraculously learning how to not over throw guys by 10-15 yards is not the hill you want to die on.

Mogglez, do you know how highly regarded Allen is (or isn't) by the jets.   If he is the only one left, i prefer to pick bpa or trade and hope for a 2nd Rd prospect or even next year.  But I wonder how the jets feel about him.

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

^That’s good stuff. Third down completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure are the two big ones, and both of them are awful for Rosen and Allen. I knew Allen would be bad there, but the low Rosen numbers are surprising.

Whenever i turned on a ucla game i saw Rosen getting the crap kicked out of him with zero help.  When he had time he was lethal.

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4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/74937/crunching-numbers-on-jets-qb-options-from-cousins-to-mayfield

One of the great things about football is that, unlike baseball, it's difficult to base player evaluations on statistics. So many variables impact individual performance -- scheme, play design, other matchups, etc. -- that you can't expect two or three stats to tell a player's story. In football, a scout's eye still matters, and that's kind of cool.

That said, it never hurts to peek at the numbers.

Since the big story around the New York Jets is the quarterback position (what else is new?), I thought it would be interesting to compare how their quarterback options performed last season in specific situations.

We'll limit it to seven quarterbacks: three pros, free agents Kirk CousinsJosh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater; and four draft prospects, Josh AllenSam DarnoldBaker Mayfield and Josh Rosen. (Note: Bridgewater's last full season was 2015, so those stats are used.)

First-down passing

If a quarterback can't dominate on first down, he's got problems. He usually faces base personnel and fairly vanilla coverages, so the numbers should be large and impressive.

Third-down passing

This is the money down. It's also when defenses get creative and unleash exotic blitz packages, testing the quarterback's ability to diagnose quickly and react.

Fourth-quarter/OT passing

A quarterback needs the clutch gene. If he can't deliver in the crucible of the fourth quarter, his team never will win a championship.

Passing under pressure

Most quarterbacks look good when they have time to throw, but how do they fare when they're about to get blasted in the chest by a 300-pound lineman? The good ones stay cool and keep their eyes downfield. The others panic.

Conclusion: Based on this data, Mayfield is the clear winner among the draft prospects, as he led three of the four categories. Perhaps the biggest eye-opener: Allen really struggled in high-leverage situations -- third down, fourth quarter and under pressure. As for the pros, Cousins -- on the verge of a historic contract from someone -- led only one category, but he was the most consistent passer across the board.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information (College stats were converted to NFL passer rating)

 That's quite a bit of data to chew on. Nicely done Tom.

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17 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Trying to get into mccagnan's head, assuming no cousins and that regardless of who they sign they're still taking a qb in the first round, i suspect he would prefer Rosen or darnold over the other two guys.  I can't see mccagnan staking his last gm stand on mayfield, and allen probably needs to sit the most and that's not what a gm whose job is on the line wants to do with his first round pick.

 

16 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

Mogglez, do you know how highly regarded Allen is (or isn't) by the jets.   If he is the only one left, i prefer to pick bpa or trade and hope for a 2nd Rd prospect or even next year.  But I wonder how the jets feel about him.

To make a very long story short they're incredibly high on all of the top 4 with Rosen and Darnold at the very top, Mayfield and Allen just below, in that order.

However, Baker Mayfield is about to make our top 2 (Rosen, Darnold) a top 3 if he does well in the private meeting/workout we set up with him.  He was incredibly impressive when we met with him for over 4 hours at the Senior Bowl, and even more so at the Combine.  Football IQ is off the charts.  Allen isn't dumb by any means.  In fact, I heard he tested better than expected on the white board.  However, he's just a little behind the other 3 in that regard. Obviously, where he makes up for this is his measurables and his arm that no one else comes close to.

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1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

 

To make a very long story short they're incredibly high on all of the top 4 with Rosen and Darnold at the very top, Mayfield and Allen just below, in that order.

However, Baker Mayfield is about to make our top 2 (Rosen, Darnold) a top 3.  He was incredibly impressive when we met with him for over 4 hours at the Senior Bowl, and even more so at the Combine.  Football IQ is off the charts.

That's great to hear, thanks for the info.   Hopefully they can work out a trade for the #3 pick or maybe even #2 (although I am unsure the Giants would trade with Jets) and get one of them.

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2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

 

To make a very long story short they're incredibly high on all of the top 4 with Rosen and Darnold at the very top, Mayfield and Allen just below, in that order.

However, Baker Mayfield is about to make our top 2 (Rosen, Darnold) a top 3.  He was incredibly impressive when we met with him for over 4 hours at the Senior Bowl, and even more so at the Combine.  Football IQ is off the charts.

Mayfield would be a MFing god here even if he ends up being Andy Dalton-type average. The fear with drafting him is that he’d have to start right away because neither he nor the fanbase are going to stop screaming if Bowles starts McCown over him.

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16 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Whenever i turned on a ucla game i saw Rosen getting the crap kicked out of him with zero help.  When he had time he was lethal.

I’d like to use it as an excuse, but he’s going to experience a ton of pressure in the NFL, too, no matter how good his line is. 

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13 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

^That’s good stuff. Third down completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure are the two big ones, and both of them are awful for Rosen and Allen. I knew Allen would be bad there, but the low Rosen numbers are surprising.

I genuinely don't understand why Lamar Jackson is left out of that analysis.

I can't tell if Mayfield's stats are translatable but he's clearly had an amazing collegiate career.  I like Darnold, too - strong on third down, strong under pressure.  

Allen is going to be a disaster.  

It also makes me think twice about Kirk...

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4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mayfield would be a MFing god here even if he ends up being Andy Dalton-type average. The fear with drafting him is that he’d have to start right away because neither he nor the fanbase are going to stop screaming if Bowles starts McCown over him.

Completely agree. 

I actually think he'd have zero problems coming in and earning the spot right away.  I can't stress enough how well he tested and interviewed.

For the record, all three guys who have a pivotal role in picking the QB (Macc, Bowles, Bates) are big fans.

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