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With FAs signed so far and if Draft falls way folks predicting, who Jets pick at 6?


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12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. Granted it's not as pronounced as with those guys, and we are talking about this in the context of having put ourselves in a spot here, but with a pick this high I have to understand why I'm taking a player beyond everybody says. Everybody says gets you Leonard Williams and Darron Lee and Jamal Adams. Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6? Chubb is at least an end but what do you honestly think his best-case is? The most likely outcome here is we at least are satisfied he's not a bust after he follows a career trajectory something like, start slow then turn into an 8 sack a year guy who breaks 10 once on the first contract. Don't tell me that's valuable, I know. But merely hitting your picks and averaging your expectation by definition gets you to 8-8. This is more about understanding how games work than it is about football.

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2 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. Granted it's not as pronounced as with those guys, and we are talking about this in the context of having put ourselves in a spot here, but with a pick this high I have to understand why I'm taking a player beyond everybody says. Everybody says gets you Leonard Williams and Darron Lee and Jamal Adams. Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6? Chubb is at least an end but what do you honestly think his best-case is? The most likely outcome here is we at least are satisfied he's not a bust after he follows a career trajectory something like, start slow then turn into an 8 sack a year guy who breaks 10 once on the first contract. Don't tell me that's valuable, I know. But merely hitting your picks and averaging your expectation by definition gets you to 8-8. This is more about understanding how games work than it is about football.

I hearr ya, who do you suggest they take?  He's one of the top position players on the board - at a "premium" position everyone's been screaming about.

 

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6 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. Granted it's not as pronounced as with those guys, and we are talking about this in the context of having put ourselves in a spot here, but with a pick this high I have to understand why I'm taking a player beyond everybody says. Everybody says gets you Leonard Williams and Darron Lee and Jamal Adams. Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6? Chubb is at least an end but what do you honestly think his best-case is? The most likely outcome here is we at least are satisfied he's not a bust after he follows a career trajectory something like, start slow then turn into an 8 sack a year guy who breaks 10 once on the first contract. Don't tell me that's valuable, I know. But merely hitting your picks and averaging your expectation by definition gets you to 8-8. This is more about understanding how games work than it is about football.

I don’t think Chubb fits the 3-4, unlike Davenport 

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21 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. 

 

 Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6?  

 

Chubb has SPARQ numbers better than 78% of edge at the position. He's really good athletically but not 99.9% good. If going purely on athletic numbers, Harold Landry might be the pick. 

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/edge/

To answer your question, Mac is more about avoiding the downside

 

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1 hour ago, ChuckkieB said:

I refuse to believe that this franchise, as incompetent and as rudderless as it is, is stupid enough to try to sell the fan base on a McCown and Bridgewater tandem with no blue chip QB prospect, especially after 3 years of Fitpatrick and McCown and consecutive 5-11 finishes.   If that actually happens, it will be the death knell for the Mac and Bowles dynamic duo and usher in another wasted year in mediocrity or worse. 

Why? It's exactly what they have done the first 3 years. Bridgewater and McClown are the excuses Macc will use to explain picking safety again at number 6. 

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37 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. Granted it's not as pronounced as with those guys, and we are talking about this in the context of having put ourselves in a spot here, but with a pick this high I have to understand why I'm taking a player beyond everybody says. Everybody says gets you Leonard Williams and Darron Lee and Jamal Adams. Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6? Chubb is at least an end but what do you honestly think his best-case is? The most likely outcome here is we at least are satisfied he's not a bust after he follows a career trajectory something like, start slow then turn into an 8 sack a year guy who breaks 10 once on the first contract. Don't tell me that's valuable, I know. But merely hitting your picks and averaging your expectation by definition gets you to 8-8. This is more about understanding how games work than it is about football.

We are going to keep doing the same thing that gets us mediocrity. Is there anything that makes you feel like we are going to come away round one with anything but continuing with a string of bad decisions? 

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This is Mac's last stand. He was sold to us as a scout. He has to pick his qb and go get him. By any means necessary. It really is that simple. A 39 year old and a qb coming off a serious injury had better not be derailing that. If it does, Mac won't be GM for long.

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36 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Chubb has SPARQ numbers better than 78% of edge at the position. He's really good athletically but not 99.9% good. If going purely on athletic numbers, Harold Landry might be the pick. 

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/edge/

To answer your question, Mac is more about avoiding the downside

 

Victor Beasley hit both Waldo numbers and was a back to back all American. We took Leonard Williams. I think there's a lot of validity to what you said before about Maccagnan measuring success by getting a guy people said was gonna go higher. I think there's a solid quantifiable case for Landry.

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I like how most people didn’t follow the question correctly lol. Following the question correctly, I would take Chubb since the 4 qb’s and Barkley would be off the board. I would then trade back into first rd(depending on price) and grab Jackson. Take a RB in 3rd rd and finish off with O line help.

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1 hour ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

What's to like? It's the same kind of issue as with Gholston and Coples. If you just look at height/weight/speed they look great but the explosion and agility numbers aren't there. Granted it's not as pronounced as with those guys, and we are talking about this in the context of having put ourselves in a spot here, but with a pick this high I have to understand why I'm taking a player beyond everybody says. Everybody says gets you Leonard Williams and Darron Lee and Jamal Adams. Where is the upside? Williams is a good player. Adams more likely than not be pretty good one day, but in what scenario are you ever going to get a surplus return on the draft capital you've invested by taking an average athlete at DT at 6, an undersized LB at 20, and a below average athlete at S at 6? Chubb is at least an end but what do you honestly think his best-case is? The most likely outcome here is we at least are satisfied he's not a bust after he follows a career trajectory something like, start slow then turn into an 8 sack a year guy who breaks 10 once on the first contract. Don't tell me that's valuable, I know. But merely hitting your picks and averaging your expectation by definition gets you to 8-8. This is more about understanding how games work than it is about football.

Olivier Vernon basically

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2 hours ago, ChuckkieB said:

I refuse to believe that this franchise, as incompetent and as rudderless as it is, is stupid enough to try to sell the fan base on a McCown and Bridgewater tandem with no blue chip QB prospect, especially after 3 years of Fitpatrick and McCown and consecutive 5-11 finishes.   If that actually happens, it will be the death knell for the Mac and Bowles dynamic duo and usher in another wasted year in mediocrity or worse. 

They did last year with Mccown and Hackenberg/Petty. Dont get the sense there's been a shift in thinking when it comes to the quarterback. The only rationale I have is the GM knows the coach he's not allowed to fire will not play a rookie unless forced due to injury.

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The should draft a QB. And they should probably move up to via trade to take the guy they want. Darnold or Rosen come to mind. But if they want Allen or Mayfield you really cannot assume either will be there at 6. 

For the #1 pick it will take A LOT. Like their first rounder, both second rounders and a second and 4th rounder next year- AT MINIMUM. 

For the #2 pick it will take much the same but they could save a draft pick next year. 

For the #3 pick it becomes a bit more reasonable. Their first (1,600), second (520) and 4th (92) THIS year should do it, without having to give up any draft picks next year.   

NFL%20TRADE%20CHART.jpeg

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59 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 

To answer your question, Mac is more about avoiding the downside

 

this.  mccagnan looks at the draft like it's a game, how can i get the guy who's rated higher than i'm picking.  he does not consider positional impact, position scarcity, offense/defense balance, cap implications, league trends or relative need.  and he has these rules that prevent drafting offensive linemen and rbs early in drafts.  so his inherent draft value system completely skews defense.

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4 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

At this point I want the best of Chubb or Nelson, or a trade back. Then Lamar and a stud RB before R2 is over.

chubb or nelson for me as well if bills trade up and 4 QBs gone. ya, I know nelson went to ND, been typing about too many guys lately LOL

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Again, its great if you think a QB will be there, but for THIS Thread for fun, we are asking which of 3 guys in OP would you take if that is what Jets see at #6, 

giphy.gif

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