Dear NFL GMs: 3 reasons why Geno Smith is a GREAT Free-Agent Signing (NYDN)

[Warfish]

I'll just leave this here :

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Dear NFL GMs: 3 reasons why Geno Smith is a great free-agent signing

The New York Daily News' Pat Leonard writes “Geno Smith deserves another chance to be an NFL team's franchise quarterback.”

He really does. This is not a popular statement in the age of Twitter, but it’s a correct one. Geno deserves that chance based on objective data, watching his growth on film, and fair comparisons to uneven starts of vast majority of franchise quarterbacks.

Most of Geno’s critics simply don’t want to put in that kind of work. Their minds are made up.

But NFL general managers should take another look. It’s their job to do so – especially when not prohibited by owners from doing their job (see Colin Kaepernick).

Leonard’s article covers Geno’s strong bridge year with the Giants including his growth, work ethic, grueling offseasons, and how he has impressed his Giants teammates, and coaches alike.

It also addresses an impolite fact – he performed better than most of Eli Manning’s games. Like the previous two times Smith lost his starting job due to injuries, once again, losing the starter’s role had nothing to do with his on-field performance. Geno is a pretty unlucky quarterback.

This time he simply replaced the wrong guy in Eli as New York City fans got all sentimental (since when?) about his benching, and the rest was politics. The media circus was so insane that Geno’s own father received death threats. But if you follow the media malpractice surrounding Smith’s career, those death threats were five years in the making.

Dear NFL GMs: Forget all the media narrative, and Twitter noise and do your job.

There is a free agent quarterback on the market right now....

- Whose career start was identical to a young Drew Brees before it was interrupted by an injury at age 24.

- Who is still only 27, just one year older than Jimmy Garappolo, and 12 years younger than Josh McCown who was just given 10 million to play for the Jets at age 39.

- Who has a 96.3 passer rating in his last nine games (6 starts).

- Whose Jets record was 12-9 when their opponents scored fewer than 30 points.

- Who has quietly shined bright with nearly every starting-caliber receiver he has ever been given.

- Who has outperformed Kirk Cousins when Kirk was saddled with similar working conditions (see Kirk’s past without Jordan Reed).

Smith was asked at the end of last season if he viewed himself as a starter.

“Yeah, I think so,” Smith said. “Watch the tape. You’ll see it.”

Dear NFL GMs: Do it. Watch the tape. You’ll see it.

Check his stats. It will verify it.

Evaluate his receivers. You will be surprised.

If you believe that young quarterbacks, including young black QBs, can actually grow and improve after age 24 with kinder surroundings, then start here:

Reason No. 1: Watch the Tape

Geno made NFL history in 2017 by being the first black quarterback to start a game for the New York Giants – and that was significant. Through no fault of his own, history lasted only one game.

Lost amidst the Manning benching soap opera, is that Geno played really well, and his performance far exceeds his respectable stat line (21-34 for 212 yards; 1 TD).

Geno was amazingly accurate, and outplayed the Raiders’ Derek Carr, but only reviewing game tape will reveal that.

His two most poorly thrown balls on the day were actually completions. The incompletions were dropped passes, and perfectly thrown balls in tight windows (and uncalled pass interference). Other than intentional throwaways, not one ball was uncatchable.

Geno’s accuracy was one of five promising takeaways from the Giants game for GM’s to consider.

And he did this in his first regular-season game after ACL surgery while his opponent, Carr, has needed an entire season to recover from his ankle injury.

In 2016, Smith tore his ACL in his first and only start. USA Today’s Steven Ruiz tracked every pass, and came away very impressed. Far from a “laughingstock,” he says “Geno Smith is a lot better than you remember”.

In 2015, he only played one game again, and Edward Gorelik at NFL Breakdowns tracked every play. He concluded Smith “showed some accuracy and difficult decision making he’s never shown before as a passer,” and “started to continue down the path of growth he was already at just a season ago.”

Gorelik is referring to Smith’s largely forgotten 2014 late-season surge where he posted a 105.3 passer rating in the season’s final four games.

Geno’s career can basically be separated into three parts:

Part 1: Forgotten strong rookie 2013 season (Led the Jets to 8-8 record though the team was predicted to win three games)

Part 2: 1-7 start in 2014

Part 3: Forgotten improvement since 1st half of 2014

Selective memories and media mythmaking has reduced Geno’s career into Part 2. While I have all these parts in great detail on Geno’s “insane untapped potential,” his post-benching improvement that began in the last quarter of 2014 deserves a closer look:

Reason No. 2: Check the Stats – Geno’s Improvement is Real

Geno Smith 2014 1-7 Slump vs. 11 Games Since (7 starts)

• Attempts / Yards / TD / Int / Comp% / Rating
• 2014 Slump: 233 / 1370 / 7 / 10 / 56.2 / 65.6
• Since Slump: 226 / 1758 / 10 / 5 / 63.2 / 93.1

The passing attempts are the same since his benching. The performance is not.

Smith’s first-half slump on a terrible team, and improvement afterward is absolutely consistent with any young growing quarterback.

Do you know Kirk Cousin’s record in 2013 and 2014? 1-7.

Drew Brees second year starting? 2-9. Sam Bradford? 1-9

Eli Manning’s 1st year? 1-6. That’s better than Jared Goff (0-7), Case Keenum (0-8), and Troy Aikman (0-11).

Derek Carr or Peyton Manning as rookies? Both went 3-13.

Matt Stafford’s first two seasons? 3-10. That’s better than Steve Young at 3-16.

Alex Smith’s first three seasons? 11-19. Blake Bortles? 11-34. Dan Fouts? 5-20-1.

Newsflash: Young QBs on bad teams struggle, and that includes Hall of Famers and the highest paid ones in 2018.

And none of these men had worse receivers than Geno Smith.

Dear GMs:

If the vast majority of great QBs struggle early on, why would you set a higher standard for Geno Smith?

And then there are these numbers: 31. 27. 24. 31. 31. 27. 43.

These are the Jets’ opponents scoring in Geno’s seven losses before his 2014 mid-season benching.

Do you know how hard it is for a young QB to overcome at least 27 points?

Young Eli Manning lost his first 11 career games when the Giants gave up 27 or more. His big brother Peyton? He started his career 0-12.

Dear GMs:

 

If the young Manning brothers can’t win with bad defenses, why would you expect more from Geno Smith?

Reason No. 3: Geno has shined in only glimpses with real NFL receivers

Stephen Hill and David Nelson were both last spotted starting 11 games under Geno Smith before disappearing from the NFL. This is how Jeremy Kerley became Geno’s No. 1 Jets receiver.

Dear GMs:

Isn’t it in your job description to project how a player might perform with better weapons? Luckily, Geno has left some clues behind.

Jeff Cumberland, Geno’s main tight end with the Jets, was actually ranked the No. 2 tight end in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) by Football Outsiders in 2013. For some odd reason, the Jets drafted Jace Amaro, and changed Cumberland’s role.

Cumberland’s best season and best career game? They came with Geno.

Giants rookie Evan Engram played only one game with Geno last year and it was his best of the season (7 catches for 99 yards and 1 TD). That production did not come in 14 chances with Eli – it came with Geno.

Eric Decker’s hamstrings were only healthy for a handful of games at the end of 2014 with Geno, but that was enough to average over 100 yards in their final four games. Decker’s only 200-yard game of his career (10/221) did not come in 32 games with Peyton Manning when they were in Denver together, it came with Geno.

Santonio Holmes, after his severe Lisfranc injury, started only three more somewhat healthy games alongside Geno before his hamstrings also gave way. His highest yardage career game (154 yards) did not come playing four years with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, it came with Geno.

Holmes’ final 100-yard game; Percy Harvin’s final 100-yard game; Stephen Hill’s only 100-yard game – they all came with Geno.

“With Geno’s poise,” Holmes said at the time, “he can be as great as he wants to be.”

Correction. As great as the NFL will allow him to be.

If there is not a greater sample-size, here is the reason:

46 - NFL starts by Stephen Hill, David Nelson, Zach Sudfeld, Jace Amaro, Clyde Gates, Greg Salas and Holmes with Geno’s Jets in 2013-2014.

3 - NFL career starts by those same seven players since (all out of NFL)

This stat is crazy. Smith wasn’t just passing to back-ups disguised as starters – he was throwing to guys who couldn’t cut it elsewhere as 4th and 5th stringers.

Comparing stat-for-stat comparisons of a young Geno to other young QBs is like comparing two NASCAR drivers when one is driving a Toyota Corolla. And even when young Matt Stafford’s had a race car named “Megatron”, he STILL performed the same as Geno (3-10; 67.1 passer rating).

Dear GMs:

In the only strobe-light flashes Geno has been granted an adequate receiver, he has shined.

Yes, media, fans, and even stat-heads are largely incapable of assessing QBs with terrible receivers, especially black QBs.

When Jeremy Kerley is your No. 1 receiver, they blame you – not the GM. When you throw to Stephen Hill instead of Tyreek Hill, they say you can’t “read defenses.” A receiver’s inability to create separation becomes an assault on a black QB’s intelligence – instead of the idiots who can’t tell the difference between Jerry Rice and Minute Rice.

That’s why black QB’s rarely get second chances to make good while white QB’s get 3rd, 4th, and 5th ones, and after this week, the four highest-paid quarterbacks have never won a playoff game.

Cousins, Carr, Bradford, and Garappolo are all question marks getting paid $18 to $28 million next year, not off past performance, but future hope.

Dear GMs:

Every time Geno has been given the smallest breadcrumbs of real support, he has demonstrated future hope – including the potential to be a franchise quarterback.

Dear GM’s, the video, statistical, and analytical evidence is there.

You just have to do your damn job.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/dear-nfl-gms-3-reasons-geno-smith-great-fa-signing-article-1.3874086

I get the distinct feeling that this writer thinks all of Geno Smith's troubles in his career are about the NFL being wildly racist, not the quality of his play.

So, where will Geno wind up this offseason, since he is such a great option and near-sure-thing franchise QB just pining for a fair chance, with weapons?

[Grandy]

lol

[Augustiniak]

Reason 4:  He probably would pay people he owes very quickly.

[Banks81]

Reason No. 4:  He believes the earth is flat!  

[joewilly12]

Possibly still better than any QB on our roster. 

[Beerfish]

Well when you exclude the negatives it paints a rosy picture.  And a lot of what he says about Geno is true.  He throws a nice ball, is reasonably accurate, has some mobility.

He often will look good on tape for a drive or two but then he ALWAYS follows that up with multiple awful hair brained plays.  Awful turnovers, ridiculous sacks, absolute no pocket awareness.  And he has never progressed at all in these negatives.  He has shown it everywhere he has been.  You can't win with Geno Smith.

[Jetscreen]

Robbie Anderson and Geno Smith could go head to head on Jeopardy

[Paradis]

Regardless of the folley that transpired here in NY -- I am genuinely curious to see what Geno looks like for 3-4 game stretch starting for a team w/ competent offense. If for nothing else, then just to put certain things to bed. 

[Warfish]

Funny how the Jets are giving a second chance to a Black QB (Bridgewater) while New York Media is writing stories claiming black QB's don't ever get second chances, primarily because of/about a Black QB who was just given a second chance by the NY Giants after his time with the NY Jets.

Have to admit, tho, nice to see the sparkly clean Giants get the "implied to be racists" attack for a change.

 

[SAR I]

HA HA HA HA HA HA!

It's a good thing he's black, at least he has that going for him. League owners are just dying to hire washed-up backup quarterbacks who poison a locker room, send dick-pics, make trouble, become 'unnamed sources' for reporters, welch on debts, and kneel for the National Anthem. 

Josh McCown signs a $10 million dollar contract at Chick-fil-A, Geno Smith works at Chick-fil-A.  Justice.

SAR I

[Joe Jets fan]

Wow. Terrible racist article.   

[Thai Jet]

There's a 2nd Geno Smith in the league ? Wow

[rangerous]

21 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll just leave this here :

I get the distinct feeling that this writer thinks all of Geno Smith's troubles in his career are about the NFL being wildly racist, not the quality of his play.

So, where will Geno wind up this offseason, since he is such a great option and near-sure-thing franchise QB just pining for a fair chance, with weapons?

dear gm's, geno got his jaw broke over a $600 promise to a team mate.  when those defenses gave up 30 ppg it was because geno threw one or more pick sixes. and that final 4 game over 100 qbr rating is tempered by his 158 rating in the final game of the season against a hapless doltfins team.

[Thai Jet]

18 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Well when you exclude the negatives it paints a rosy picture.  And a lot of what he says about Geno is true.  He throws a nice ball, is reasonably accurate, has some mobility.

He often will look good on tape for a drive or two but then he ALWAYS follows that up with multiple awful hair brained plays.  Awful turnovers, ridiculous sacks, absolute no pocket awareness.  And he has never progressed at all in these negatives.  He has shown it everywhere he has been.  You can't win with Geno Smith.

That's a proven fact

[NoBowles]

I didn't know VTF was a ghost writer using the handle Pat Leonard for the Daily News....

[Dcat]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll just leave this here :

I'll leave this right next to it 

[JetBlue]

Without getting into all the details of the article, he would a be a "great" signing (just not for the Jets. Too much bad history).  He would come relatively cheap, has starting experience and is still pretty young.  Just let him battle it out with whomever and see who emerges.  I wouldn't be shocked if he won a starting job.  
 

[T0mShane]

A quick reminder: only click on the articles you want to see more of. Don’t click on the articles you’d like to see disappear from the media landscape forever.

[jgb]

Yes, yes, yes. Here we go here we go.

[Bleedin Green]

Hey, remember those few good games 4 years ago?  So that's something, right?

[King P]

Great signing? No

 

1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Possibly still better than any QB on our roster. 

Double no

[Pac]

The article is pretty accurate.

Pretty amazing that given the way the last year and a half has gone down that people believe race has absolutely nothing to do with anything when it comes to NFL QB's.  Right.  

Hopefully he gets another shot.  

[NoBowles]

Cam Newton and Jameis Winston were both 1st overall picks.

Geno Smith and EJ Manuel were the first two QB's selected in their draft....

At what point do we stop blaming race for QB's? Asking for a friend.

[NYs Stepchild]

15 minutes ago, Pac said:

The article is pretty accurate.

Pretty amazing that given the way the last year and a half has gone down that people believe race has absolutely nothing to do with anything when it comes to NFL QB's.  Right.  

Hopefully he gets another shot.  

RG3 and Russel Wilson have no problems with the owners. Maybe it's not race but politics that is the problem. 

[Green DNA]

Maybe if Geno wasn't the most situationally unaware QB in the league he would have a job.

[peebag]

Come to the dark side....

wait, was that racist?

[johnnyjet]

In case anyone is wondering, Geno would suck in the Canadian football league and arena ball also.  Physical talent needs mental awareness to make him a worthy qb in any league.  

[jeremy2020]

Wow, the opioid epidemic is really out of control

[Il Mostro]

3 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Reason 4:  He probably would pay people he owes very quickly.

Or, at the very least, learn how to slip or duck a punch.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Pac said:

The article is pretty accurate.

Pretty amazing that given the way the last year and a half has gone down that people believe race has absolutely nothing to do with anything when it comes to NFL QB's.  Right.  

Hopefully he gets another shot.  

Kap?

Is Kap about race, or is Kap about pissing off a wide swatch of the NFL viewership who doesn't agree with his chosen method of protest?

Hint:  If Kap was simply active off the field about his issue of choice, no one (or almost no one) would give two sh*ts.

Kap got blackballed (wait, is THAT a racist term now?) when he decided to say **** you to the entire country and the flag ON THE FIELD as his "protest".  Oh, that and he's a sh*t QB on the downside of his career after a number of disappointing seasons.  One who opted OUT of his own deal because :reasons:.

if there is one way to get hated in America it's to **** with Patriotism.  We revel in that sh*t here.

If the NFL were as racist as "see racism everywhere in everything" guys like you seem to think, we'd have a hell of alot less black players, no policies to promote black coaches/executives, and fans everywhere would be mad that their favorite teams are >75% black players in a country where only 12% of the population is black.

In before predictable "you're just racist too" counterargument.  

P.S. If Black QB's don't get second chances, what are we giving Bridgewater, and what did the Giants give Geno?  And what is your basis/evidence that Geno won't be resigned because of his race?

[Pac]

50 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Kap?

Is Kap about race, or is Kap about pissing off a wide swatch of the NFL viewership who doesn't agree with his chosen method of protest?

Hint:  If Kap was simply active off the field about his issue of choice, no one (or almost no one) would give two sh*ts.

Kap got blackballed (wait, is THAT a racist term now?) when he decided to say **** you to the entire country and the flag ON THE FIELD as his "protest".  Oh, that and he's a sh*t QB on the downside of his career after a number of disappointing seasons.  One who opted OUT of his own deal because :reasons:.

if there is one way to get hated in America it's to **** with Patriotism.  We revel in that sh*t here.

If the NFL were as racist as "see racism everywhere in everything" guys like you seem to think, we'd have a hell of alot less black players, no policies to promote black coaches/executives, and fans everywhere would be mad that their favorite teams are >75% black players in a country where only 12% of the population is black.

In before predictable "you're just racist too" counterargument.  

P.S. If Black QB's don't get second chances, what are we giving Bridgewater, and what did the Giants give Geno?  And what is your basis/evidence that Geno won't be resigned because of his race?

No need to get too deep into it..  I like you and think you're a good poster.

We disagree about it..  He didn't piss on a country.. in fact the majority of americans agree that he has the right to do what he did.

I'm not particularly sensitive to racism but am also not going to sit here and pretend it doesn't exist.

If you think everything is equal that's cool.  I can't remember anyone making a big deal out of it when Drew Brees kneeled though.

Actually this wasn't even about Kap....  Not sure how we got there.

I just think if Geno looked like Hack, teams might be more forgiving of his perceived indiscretions.  

 

[jetstream23]

I thought we just signed a better, kinder Geno Smith in Teddy Bridgewater?

[BigO]

God have you no mercy

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, Pac said:

No need to get too deep into it..  I like you and think you're a good poster.

Thank you.  I think it's generally mutual.

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We disagree about it..  He didn't piss on a country.

I don't happen to think he did either.  I think he tried to find a way to do it "respectfully", and kneeling IS (even per military guys) the right way to go if you had to go this route.

But he was utterly tone deaf from the very start, he made more people move the other way than move his way (not the purpose of a protest!).  The flag, to a goodly portion of this country, represents us all.  And his beef isn't and shouldn't have been with "us all".  When he made it about the entire country being racist, he lost the fight right then and there.

And like it or not, many Americans, especially football fans, don't want a huge lump of socio-political poop on the side of their escapism of NFL football.  I deal with politics every day, I know I don't want it in my football time, that's MY time.  

Like I said, had he just been politically active/protesting in his own time, instead of on the teams/fans time, the outcome would have been (IMO) completely different.

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in fact the majority of americans agree that he has the right to do what he did.

Of course he has a right to do it.  Absolutely and unquestionably.   It was never a question of rights.  And to a lesser degree a question of ramification, while he has a right to kneel (i.e. the law doesn't stop him), he does not have a right to continued employment as an NFL QB when he 'speaks" on the job.  He doesn't, you don't, I don't.  We can all be fired for "free speech" at our workplaces. 

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I'm not particularly sensitive to racism but am also not going to sit here and pretend it doesn't exist.

Oh, agreed.  It absolutely exists and is a horrific vile thing that should be stomped out with all possible diligence.  I remember all too well growing up on long island and how deeply racist those small towns were, it was horrid.  Much better down here in VA tbqh, happily.

But I hope you can understand that the repeated and inaccurate use of "oh, it's racism" every time a black person is involved in anything they think as less than they deserve, it's is akin to the boy who cried wolf.  It does a disservice to the true victims of racism in this country (and there are many!).  Newsflash, we all get less than we think we deserve in life, its not racism, it's life!

Be assured, Geno Smith is not a victim of NFL racism.

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I just think if Geno looked like Hack, teams might be more forgiving of his perceived indiscretions.  

I think Geno will get a "third chance" somewhere despite this writers thoughts otherwise.  

It will be VERY interesting to see what other chances Petty and Hack get post-Jets.  

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, NoBowles said:

I didn't know VTF was a ghost writer using the handle Pat Leonard for the Daily News....

No lie: The moment I seen this thread I said to myself "I know my name has probably come up somewhere in this thread, and if I guess it's NoBowles". 

I opened the thread and simply scrolled down. 

Im Jetnation famous for real.