Allen’s completion percentage...

[nico002]

The difference between a 56% and 60% completion is 4 passes out of 100 throws. I fail to see how that is a significant number- especially when a dump off counts equally to an 60 yard bomb on the run.

Is it not possible that Allen’s % is 4 throws worse out of 100 because he simply attempts more insane throws than other less talented quarterbacks?

[dbatesman]

Some good points here

[Patriot Killa]

Allen lovers googling numbers.

[SayNoToDMC]

So Hackenburg was a steal in the second with his size and arm strength. It was just 4 passes out of 100 to get him to 70%. I forgot how percentages worked

[Patriot Killa]

1 minute ago, SayNoToDMC said:

So Hackenburg was a steal in the second with his arm strength. It was just 4 passes out of 100. I forgot how percentages worked

Me too. If only his passes were thrown with proper mechanics, deadly precision and the reads behind the throw were the correct read instead of “see it, throw it.” I would be like damnnnnn...bro has a point.

[Lupz27]

2 hours ago, nico002 said:

The difference between a 56% and 60% completion is 4 passes out of 100 throws. I fail to see how that is a significant number- especially when a dump off counts equally to an 60 yard bomb on the run.

Is it not possible that Allen’s % is 4 throws worse out of 100 because he simply attempts more insane throws than other less talented quarterbacks?

I don’t know the stats, but with a guy like Allen I’d look more along the lines of YPA, and if you want to get into advanced stats Yards ball traveled in the air per attempt compared to the air raid, and spread QB’s who have a ton of bubble screens, and shovel passes built in that Allen didn’t have.

Again no idea if this would help, or hurt Allens case just thinking out loud, I looked over Allen last year pre draft, and what I came away with is that he was a taller but much less gifted arm talent wise version of Mahomes, and if you weren’t gonna draft Mahomes high last year then you shouldn’t even look at Allen this year (by less gifted arm talent I mean everything that goes into passing, Allen MAY have a stronger arm, but in terms of everything else Mahomes has him in spades when it comes to being able make throws as a QB, and make throws that no other QB can, Allen has the ability to make those throws arm strength wise that Mahomes can make, but he can’t drop them on a dime with ease like it’s no big deal the way Mahomes can). 

So basically I stand firm in my stance that you can’t draft either Allen, or Mayfield this high while not drafting Mahomes when you had the chance last year with the same people in charge, because neither is a better prospect then Mahomes was last year, it’s Darnold, or Rosen, or epic failure, and I’ll stand by that.

[Sonny Werblin]

6 hours ago, nico002 said:

The difference between a 56% and 60% completion is 4 passes out of 100 throws. I fail to see how that is a significant number- especially when a dump off counts equally to an 60 yard bomb on the run.

Is it not possible that Allen’s % is 4 throws worse out of 100 because he simply attempts more insane throws than other less talented quarterbacks?

Because he failed to pad his completion percentage against bad teams i.e. 9-19 against Hawaii. He played in a non power 5 conference where he had plenty of Patsy-type opponents. So the low completion percentage raises a flag and causes one to attempt to determine why it's low. The prevailing rationale is that he was unable or unwilling to throw timing patterns i.e. he had to see a player open before he would pass, had problems with accuracy, and a tendency to force throws. All big problems, but the debate rages on as to whether he's fixable and how much can be blamed on his teammates and coaches.

[Sonny Werblin]

3 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

I don’t know the stats, but with a guy like Allen I’d look more along the lines of YPA, and if you want to get into advanced stats Yards ball traveled in the air per attempt compared to the air raid, and spread QB’s who have a ton of bubble screens, and shovel passes built in that Allen didn’t have.

Again no idea if this would help, or hurt Allens case just thinking out loud, I looked over Allen last year pre draft, and what I came away with is that he was a taller but much less gifted arm talent wise version of Mahomes, and if you weren’t gonna draft Mahomes high last year then you shouldn’t even look at Allen this year (by less gifted arm talent I mean everything that goes into passing, Allen MAY have a stronger arm, but in terms of everything else Mahomes has him in spades when it comes to being able make throws as a QB, and make throws that no other QB can, Allen has the ability to make those throws arm strength wise that Mahomes can make, but he can’t drop them on a dime with ease like it’s no big deal the way Mahomes can). 

So basically I stand firm in my stance that you can’t draft either Allen, or Mayfield this high while not drafting Mahomes when you had the chance last year with the same people in charge, because neither is a better prospect then Mahomes was last year, it’s Darnold, or Rosen, or epic failure, and I’ll stand by that.

If Rosen or Darnold are not there at 3, I feel it's possible the Jets will select Barkley or Chubb and use next year's #1 and something more to trade back into the first round to take one of the remaining top 5 QBs.

[RutgersJetFan]

Th...this is not how math works.

[Lupz27]

42 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If Rosen or Darnold are not there at 3, I feel it's possible the Jets will select Barkley or Chubb and use next year's #1 and something more to trade back into the first round to take one of the remaining top 5 QBs.

It’s hard to do that with out a 2nd rounder so the better plan would then trading back from 3 to get more ammo to get the QB.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

4 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

I don’t know the stats, but with a guy like Allen I’d look more along the lines of YPA, and if you want to get into advanced stats Yards ball traveled in the air per attempt compared to the air raid, and spread QB’s who have a ton of bubble screens, and shovel passes built in that Allen didn’t have.

Again no idea if this would help, or hurt Allens case just thinking out loud, I looked over Allen last year pre draft, and what I came away with is that he was a taller but much less gifted arm talent wise version of Mahomes, and if you weren’t gonna draft Mahomes high last year then you shouldn’t even look at Allen this year (by less gifted arm talent I mean everything that goes into passing, Allen MAY have a stronger arm, but in terms of everything else Mahomes has him in spades when it comes to being able make throws as a QB, and make throws that no other QB can, Allen has the ability to make those throws arm strength wise that Mahomes can make, but he can’t drop them on a dime with ease like it’s no big deal the way Mahomes can). 

So basically I stand firm in my stance that you can’t draft either Allen, or Mayfield this high while not drafting Mahomes when you had the chance last year with the same people in charge, because neither is a better prospect then Mahomes was last year, it’s Darnold, or Rosen, or epic failure, and I’ll stand by that.

Maybe Yards Per Completion since he completed 20% less attempts than Baker.  Those zeros would really drag his numbers down.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

I did the math earlier (Ha), and if he completed 1 more pass per game (11), he'd be over 60%.

[Villain The Foe]

52 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Because he failed to pad his completion percentage against bad teams i.e. 9-19 against Hawaii. He played in a non power 5 conference where he had plenty of Patsy-type opponents. So the low completion percentage raises a flag and causes one to attempt to determine why it's low. The prevailing rationale is that he was unable or unwilling to throw timing patterns i.e. he had to see a player open before he would pass, had problems with accuracy, and a tendency to force throws. All big problems, but the debate rages on as to whether he's fixable and how much can be blamed on his teammates and coaches.

Thank you.

[Lupz27]

55 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Because he failed to pad his completion percentage against bad teams i.e. 9-19 against Hawaii. He played in a non power 5 conference where he had plenty of Patsy-type opponents. So the low completion percentage raises a flag and causes one to attempt to determine why it's low. The prevailing rationale is that he was unable or unwilling to throw timing patterns i.e. he had to see a player open before he would pass, had problems with accuracy, and a tendency to force throws. All big problems, but the debate rages on as to whether he's fixable and how much can be blamed on his teammates and coaches.

How many times did they run the ball in this game?  19 attempts seems like a blow out run the clock out, or no need to pass if they can’t stop the run.  Just a guess.

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Because he failed to pad his completion percentage against bad teams i.e. 9-19 against Hawaii. He played in a non power 5 conference where he had plenty of Patsy-type opponents. So the low completion percentage raises a flag and causes one to attempt to determine why it's low. The prevailing rationale is that he was unable or unwilling to throw timing patterns i.e. he had to see a player open before he would pass, had problems with accuracy, and a tendency to force throws. All big problems, but the debate rages on as to whether he's fixable and how much can be blamed on his teammates and coaches.

Ok just looked up that box score TOP Hawaii 50 minutes Wyoming 20 minutes, but Wyoming won 27-24 in OT.  Something fishy with Wyoming as a team not just with Allen.

[dbatesman]

23 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

I did the math earlier (Ha), and if he completed 1 more pass per game (11), he'd be over 60%.

Oh boy...sounds like the Allen haters have a lot to answer for

[tfine]

I think it’s because the elite scouts and former GMs on this board think Allen and Christian Hackenberg have the exact same height and arm strength. Therefore because Hack sucks Allen is sure to suck too.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[bla bla bla]

I don't hate Allen, I just like Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield more.

[Villain The Foe]

11 hours ago, nico002 said:

The difference between a 56% and 60% completion is 4 passes out of 100 throws. I fail to see how that is a significant number- especially when a dump off counts equally to an 60 yard bomb on the run.

Is it not possible that Allen’s % is 4 throws worse out of 100 because he simply attempts more insane throws than other less talented quarterbacks?

Youtuber Jets Central used this logic and I cant agree with it because it's basically trying to have it both ways. 

If you cant criticize a player because of 4 points off from 60%, stating it's lack of "true significance"...then trying to praise a guy because of potential shouldnt be a thing given that the guy is simply what he's displayed on the football field. 

If praising him for his potential based on measurables and not performance can get him to a possible top 5 pick in the draft, then criticizing his actual numbers shouldn't be deemed insignificant when having to make that decision anywhere in the top 5. Again, folks cant have it both ways. 

 

that 4% difference because of "insane throws" can also end up as turnovers as well, which he threw 1 pick for every 2 TD's. And that's being fair, because i could isolate his numbers against better competition and show that his stats and ratios are terrible. 

 

Lets not pretend like stats/performance is the thing that's insignificant here when the only argument is "potential"...something totally subjective. 

 

We've had plenty of guys who've come out of college with a 65% comp rate or better not make it in the NFL....I would assume that the %'age of the group of QB's with a 56% comp rate is even worse. This is not biases, (Kinda like Mayfield and short QB's) but performance facts. 

Allen could end up being a freak of nature elite QB, but lets keep it real here....if he does it won't be like he consistently showed that through his college tape. The kid has pretty much perfected that roll out to the right and throw a bomb down the field while on the run. But what happens when NFL level DC plan for that one constant play that he basically lived on in college? Does he have any other skills that doesn't require throwing 70 yard bombs on the run while being flushed out of the pocket? Can he play short to intermediate football, where 85% of his passes will be thrown?

Lets not make stats insignificant because we like a guy. You can still like him, but take what comes with him. 

[New York Mick]

The problem is he’s inconsistent as **** and played sh*t teams. 5 ints in a game, under 50% completion against good and bad teams and take away high percentages against D7 schools and his completion percentage is ******* awful. 

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Th...this is not how math works.

If Allen completed 4 more passes per game this season, he would have led the nation in comp%, riddle me that nerd boy

[New York Mick]

8 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

The problem is he inconsistent as **** and played sh*t teams. 5 ints in a game, under 50% completion against good and bad teams and take away high percentages against D7 schools and his completion percentage is ******* awful. 

Compared to Rosen 

[MaxAF]

2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If Rosen or Darnold are not there at 3, I feel it's possible the Jets will select Barkley or Chubb and use next year's #1 and something more to trade back into the first round to take one of the remaining top 5 QBs.

I don’t believe for a minute the Jets gave up all those top DPs to get a RB or DE. They are going QB at 3 whoever is there. And to drop back down just doesn’t make any sense.

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, MaxAF said:

I don’t believe for a minute the Jets gave up all those top DPs to get a RB or DE. They are going QB at 3 whoever is there. And to drop back down just doesn’t make any sense.

Yes, there is NOT a scenrio that could possibly happen where the Jets don't take a QB with their 1st pick.  

Now, who that's going to be is anybody's guess right now - I doubt Mac is even sure.

[New York Mick]

23 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

The problem is he inconsistent as **** and played sh*t teams. 5 ints in a game, under 50% completion against good and bad teams and take away high percentages against D7 schools and his completion percentage is ******* awful. 

Compared to Darnold

[MaxAF]

I think it’s safe to say if Darnold or Allen is there at 3 we know who the Jets are selecting but Darnold won’t be there at 3 realistically. And without watching every pass in every game it’s hard to say if receivers dropped passes ( he throws a pretty hard and fast ball) or if he just threw the ball away because there was nothing there... or he just threw bad passes. That’s why I can’t go by stats alone. And we can’t go by highlights alone either. Just hoping the Jets get a franchise QB for once. They are in a good spot but if it’s Darnold and Rosen at 1&2 then I like Allen over Mayfield personally.

[JiFtheOracle]

8 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Some good points here

If I didnt go for 8-16 in my basketball game last night and went 10-16, I would have had 4-6 more points and shot a higher percentage.

Swear to jah!  My nerdy math friend told me so. 

 

[T0mShane]

the sadder pursuit: 

A. Being a Jets fan trying to talk yourself into Josh Allen?

Or

B. Keeping track of your stats in pickup basketball then broadcasting them on the Internet the next morning?

[JiFtheOracle]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

the sadder pursuit: 

A. Being a Jets fan trying to talk yourself into Josh Allen?

Or

B. Keeping track of your stats in pickup basketball then broadcasting them on the Internet the next morning?

It wasnt pick up, Tom. It's an organized basketball league with refs and uniforms and everything!  It's very competitive as I play in the advanced league.  I get to relive my glory days vs guys that play current D1 ball at the local colleges, a few former college guys, a few NBA D leaguers and some former NFL'ers. And I still ball.

#humblebrag

 

[Matt39]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

the sadder pursuit: 

A. Being a Jets fan trying to talk yourself into Josh Allen?

Or

B. Keeping track of your stats in pickup basketball then broadcasting them on the Internet the next morning?

 

[Sonny Werblin]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

If Allen completed 4 more passes per game this season, he would have led the nation in comp%, riddle me that nerd boy

"If" is not something to hang the hopes of a franchise on. And the fact is he did not. The question is why? The answer is universally known -- a combination of inability or unwillingness to throw timing patterns (only throwing to receivers when he "sees" they are open); forcing the ball into coverage, inaccuracy and a bad team/coaching. These are not secrets. Even experts touting him as a great "prospect" say he this stuff needs to be fixed. I would rather spend the #3 pick on a player that does not need this much fixing when it comes to the all important ability to put the ball in the receiver's hands.

That said, many seem to think that those of us who have problems with allen's completion rate issue, hate the kid. We do not. We simply prefer Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield to him. They all had success against much better competition than the opponents that Allen struggled against. In some other drafts Allen might me my #1 QB. In this one, he is not. There are better options and while they all have issues, none have anywhere near Allen's problem when it comes to completing passes -- which is one of the QB's most important responsibilities. 

[Stark]

27 minutes ago, JiF said:

It wasnt pick up, Tom. It's an organized basketball league with refs and uniforms and everything!  It's very competitive as I play in the advanced league.  I get to relive my glory days vs guys that play current D1 ball at the local colleges, a few former college guys, a few NBA D leaguers and some former NFL'ers. And I still ball.

#humblebrag

 

[Sonny Werblin]

44 minutes ago, MaxAF said:

I think it’s safe to say if Darnold or Allen is there at 3 we know who the Jets are selecting but Darnold won’t be there at 3 realistically. And without watching every pass in every game it’s hard to say if receivers dropped passes ( he throws a pretty hard and fast ball) or if he just threw the ball away because there was nothing there... or he just threw bad passes. That’s why I can’t go by stats alone. And we can’t go by highlights alone either. Just hoping the Jets get a franchise QB for once. They are in a good spot but if it’s Darnold and Rosen at 1&2 then I like Allen over Mayfield personally.

Does this help?

 

Quote

 

Using Allen's supporting cast as an excuse doesn't really hold up, either. According to Pro Football Focus, Allen dealt with 12 drops this season. Jackson dealt with 33. 

View image on Twitter

 

Jeff Feyerer@jeff_feyerer

 

Completion % of potential 1st round QBs in 2018 NFL Draft adjusted based on drop data from @PFF @PFF_Neil

- Lamar Jackson's comp % was hurt the most by drops
- Josh Allen's adjusted completion percentage is lower than 4 of 5 others standard comp %, only .5% better than Jackson

10:55 AM - Jan 24, 2018

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/2018_nfl_draft_why_mel_kiper_jr_is_wrong_about_josh_allen_lamar_jackson.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grandy]

I wish I could convince myself that Allen is good, it's just too hard.

[Thai Jet]

8 hours ago, SayNoToDMC said:

So Hackenburg was a steal in the second with his size and arm strength. It was just 4 passes out of 100 to get him to 70%. I forgot how percentages worked

Don't let facts stand in your way. Hackenberg completion % were: 58.9 as a Fr., 55.8 as a Soph and 53.5 % as a senior.  His completion % got worse each year. His 3 year average was 56.1 % . The 4 passes you speak of would not have taken him to 70%. Do your homework.