How do you pass on Josh Allen?

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Total outlier, it happens. Show me where anyone had Dak Prescott highly rated.

Got a feeling many Jets fans’ investment portfolios include a goodly amount of scratch off tickets

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Both ran these spread systems in college. Both are good inside and outside the pocket. Both in college  put up insane completion numbers. Mayfield had better stats than Watson, but played in a conference that plays very little defense, so that difference is a bit tainted.

The main difference between Mayfield and Watson is body size imo

Watson ran the power RPO - smash mouth running game coupled with the run/pass option.  Mayfield runs the air raid.  Not the same.

Watson is one of the most prolific running QB's in the history of the NCAA, what he does outside of the pocket, Mayfield can/will never do.  We're talking about a Qb that ran for 1,000 yards and 12 TD's.

Which brings me to your stats; I'd argue their stats are equal if not a nod to Watson.  Take their best season; when you combine 1,000 yards and 12 running TDs' w/ 4100 + 35 TD's.  That's 5200, 47 TDs.  vs. 4900, 48 TD's - splitting hairs but when you factor in the level of competition.  Watson is more impressive.  Watson is also the most accurate passer in ACC history.  Colt McCoy holds that honor in the Big 12.  If you did a year by year comparisons (soph vs soph, jr vs. jr, etc) Watson put up more TD's and yards, every single year.  

Then there is the winning thing.  Mayfield didnt win anything other than Big 12 Championships, which every single Oklahoma QB does when they step foot on campus.  Watson went to back to back National Title games, dominated Bama and took home a trophy that actually means something. 

The main difference between the 2 is that Watson is an elite athlete/special rare talent/champion and Mayfield is just a guy who puts up monster numbers in a sh*t conference where everyone puts up monster numbers.

 

 

[Jetster]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Total outlier, it happens. Show me where anyone had Dak Prescott highly rated.

Also Dak Prescott came WAY BACK TO EARTH without his binky Elliott & some injuries on the Cowboys Oline. Not nearly as accurate without the time his Oline was affording him in 2016. That Cowboys Oline was TREMENDOUS IN 2016 and Elliott takes huge pressure off the QB with numerous 2nd & 3nd and shorts.

[UnitedWhofans]

Just now, JiF said:

Watson ran the power RPO - smash mouth running game coupled with the run/pass option.  Mayfield runs the air raid.  Not the same.

Watson is one of the most prolific running QB's in the history of the NCAA, what he does outside of the pocket, Mayfield can/will never do.  We're talking about a Qb that ran for 1,000 yards and 12 TD's.

Which brings me to your stats; I'd argue their stats are equal if not a nod to Watson.  

 

 

I said that they were equal given the fact that Mayfield plays in a conference that plays no defense.

The Smashmouth RPO and the Air Raid are both spread offenses. So they both run spread offenses

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/5/6/11606684/the-4-main-schools-of-spread-offense-smashmouth-option-air-raid-pro-style

Mayfield in his career ran for 1,023 yards and 21 TDs. Watson is a better runner but both did well outside the pocket. I'm talking in terms of generalities.

 

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

I said that they were equal given the fact that Mayfield plays in a conference that plays no defense.

The Smashmouth RPO and the Air Raid are both spread offenses. So they both run spread offenses

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/5/6/11606684/the-4-main-schools-of-spread-offense-smashmouth-option-air-raid-pro-style

Mayfield in his career ran for 1,023 yards and 21 TDs. Watson is a better runner but both did well outside the pocket. I'm talking in terms of generalities.

 

No, you said Mayfield's stats are better but whatevs.

That's a good read, I've read it before.  They're both spreads trying to accomplish very different things from using the spread.  They're not the same system.

Watson ran for 1900 and 29 and played significantly less Football than Mayfield.  Like 10 games + less than Mayfield. 

In generalities, Watson is an elite runner and Mayfield is not.

 

 

[UnitedWhofans]

Just now, JiF said:

No, you said Mayfield's stats are better but whatevs.

That's a good read, I've read it before.  They're both spreads trying to accomplish very different things from using the spread.  They're not the same system.

Watson ran for 1900 and 29 and played significantly less Football than Mayfield.  Like 10 games + less than Mayfield. 

In generalities, Watson is an elite runner and Mayfield is not.

 

 

But They are both runners. That's the point.

I guess you didnt read

Mayfield had better stats than Watson, but played in a conference that plays very little defense, so that difference is a bit tainted.

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

But They are both runners. That's the point.

I guess you didnt read

Mayfield had better stats than Watson, but played in a conference that plays very little defense, so that difference is a bit tainted.

I wouldnt call Baker a runner and I dont think you want him running the ball in the NFL.

[jetsfansince7]

We’ll see about that.  Plus the whole “has enough arm strength” thing will be tested as well.  I don’t think he does, or certainly not enough to take him before Allen, Rosen, Darnold or Rudolph.  

They tested his velocity on a meter and mayfield was the highest


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[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

Exactly.  What does Mayfield do or have that makes him so special?  I just don’t see it.  

Rudolph's arm isn't big enough to be a truly effective NFL franchise QB - people keep wanting to put Mayfield in the weak arm category - he's not.

 

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, jetsfansince7 said:

They tested his velocity on a meter and mayfield was the highest


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Can you tell me more about this velocity meter?

[FidelioJet]

13 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

But They are both runners. That's the point.

I guess you didnt read

Mayfield had better stats than Watson, but played in a conference that plays very little defense, so that difference is a bit tainted.

Baker Mayfield is NOT a runner - not really close - he ran for 311 yards last season - vs. passing for 4600.

He's wasn't a runner in college and will not be asked to be one in the NFL.

[Jetster]

13 minutes ago, JiF said:

No, you said Mayfield's stats are better but whatevs.

That's a good read, I've read it before.  They're both spreads trying to accomplish very different things from using the spread.  They're not the same system.

Watson ran for 1900 and 29 and played significantly less Football than Mayfield.  Like 10 games + less than Mayfield. 

In generalities, Watson is an elite runner and Mayfield is not.

 

 

And Watsons now equal to Mayfield now that he's a runner with an ACL tear repair. Unlike Brady with an ACL tear repair, Watson would not have been the QB he was without the great movement skills outside of the pocket. Brady rarely leaves the pocket. See RG3 career after knee injury.

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, jetsfansince7 said:

They tested his velocity on a meter and mayfield was the highest


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Well, highest of the two maybe.  But then there's this (albeit who knows if it's accurate):

http://www.stack.com/a/josh-allen-threw-a-66-14-mph-pass-at-the-senior-bowl-no-qb-at-the-nfl-combine-has-ever-exceeded-60

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

I can pass on Allen in the draft after watching him play the game of football - he looks lost at times, bad decisions, usually with the game on the line and that is the exact time you need your franchise QB to step up. I saw the same thing in hack's play at PSU, he would make a few plays then overthrow a wide open receiver on 3rd down and they both have all of the "measurables" - hence the comparison

Show me the ability to will a team to win a game (like Watson vs Bama) and that prospect has a chance in the NFL - or he's just another guy waiting for the perfect situation to flash (see Fitz, McCown, etc...) lightning in a bottle

[UnitedWhofans]

https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/26/17162670/nfl-draft-josh-allen-hype-vs-reality

[FidelioJet]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/26/17162670/nfl-draft-josh-allen-hype-vs-reality

Football isn't baseball and trying to make analytics comparasions is just silly.

Because then wouldn't Mayfield be far at the top of everyone's draft boards? 

Or do stats only matter when it fits a narrative someone is trying to build.  You can't make the argument that stats only matter when they're bad but when they're good it's about other factors.

What would Baker Mayfields numbers look like if he was the QB for Wyoming? and I like Baker, just sayin.

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Other than “moxy” and the headband thing, what does Mayfield do better than Rudolph? 

Lol, everything? Literally everything. 

[FidelioJet]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

All I've read here from most Jet fans is that he's another Hackenberg but not one draft pundant I've listened too has made that comparison EVER. I listened to an NFL Sirius radio review of all of the QBs, from Phil Savage, Brady Quinn, Bill Polian and a few other guys and they all had critiques of each prospect. 

After listening & reading everything I could dive into over the last 2 weeks I'm leaning more towards 2 players in this draft & Josh Rosen is not one of them and here's why:

The first thing I need from a QB is durability, and Rosen hasn't proven he can stay on the field. Now, if you told me the NY Jets were also going to have a top 5 Oline, ok, I might think differently but each & every year, defensive players are more athletic than offensive lineman. So unless you have an Oline as good as the Eagles (GREAT OLINE!), your QB better have good pocket movement skills & be able to throw on the run.

So based on what the media is saying Sam Darnold is probably gone at #1. No one knows what the Giants are planning but if they don't take a QB or trade out, that leaves Rosen, Allen, Mayfield. 

I would have those 3 ranked Allen, Mayfield, Rosen. As a Jet fan, I'm honestly happy with either one. But, Allens upside is through the roof! Based on those interviews I listened to, the comparisons to Hackenberg? Ridiculous, Hack would never have been Mayocks #2 QB, then you have the Jamarcus Russell comparison, ridiculous, Allen can throw llike Jamarcus, runs better, and unlike Russell loves football, is a hard worker, leader, tough, and SMART, that's a huge difference based on the experts opinions. I liken Allen to Drew Bledsoe without cement shoes or bad work ethic, and much smarter on the chalk board. 

Baker Mayfield just HAS IT! You can't teach IT, and he has IT in spades. Too short, average arm, smallish hands, a little nutty off the field, but all the guy does is WIN, WIN, WIN! Wherever he goes. Mentally tough is a prerequisite in the NFL and I see Baker as a jump on my back, rise in this moment QB. Those types get everyone involved, raise everyone's confidence, and stay calm & perform in the most demanding moments like 2 minutes offenses, end of game drives ect.

So, there you have the Jetsters take on the QBs at 3. Allen, Mayfield, Rosen in that order. I think all 3 will be NFL QBs. The only reason Mayfield slips into 2nd is the durability issues of Rosen. Go Jets.

Your thinking is very much aligned with mine.  

The Jets first round draft board will only have 3 names on it - and, IMO, because of the injury risk Rosen shouldn't be one of them.

 

[FidelioJet]

43 minutes ago, JiF said:

Can you tell me more about this velocity meter?

Take this for what it's worth - as it's not an official combine results - but still something interesting to review with a month to go..

http://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-2018-NFL-Combine/10241/dh/

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

All I've read here from most Jet fans is that he's another Hackenberg but not one draft pundant I've listened too has made that comparison EVER. I listened to an NFL Sirius radio review of all of the QBs, from Phil Savage, Brady Quinn, Bill Polian and a few other guys and they all had critiques of each prospect. 

After listening & reading everything I could dive into over the last 2 weeks I'm leaning more towards 2 players in this draft & Josh Rosen is not one of them and here's why:

The first thing I need from a QB is durability, and Rosen hasn't proven he can stay on the field. Now, if you told me the NY Jets were also going to have a top 5 Oline, ok, I might think differently but each & every year, defensive players are more athletic than offensive lineman. So unless you have an Oline as good as the Eagles (GREAT OLINE!), your QB better have good pocket movement skills & be able to throw on the run.

So based on what the media is saying Sam Darnold is probably gone at #1. No one knows what the Giants are planning but if they don't take a QB or trade out, that leaves Rosen, Allen, Mayfield. 

I would have those 3 ranked Allen, Mayfield, Rosen. As a Jet fan, I'm honestly happy with either one. But, Allens upside is through the roof! Based on those interviews I listened to, the comparisons to Hackenberg? Ridiculous, Hack would never have been Mayocks #2 QB, then you have the Jamarcus Russell comparison, ridiculous, Allen can throw llike Jamarcus, runs better, and unlike Russell loves football, is a hard worker, leader, tough, and SMART, that's a huge difference based on the experts opinions. I liken Allen to Drew Bledsoe without cement shoes or bad work ethic, and much smarter on the chalk board. 

Baker Mayfield just HAS IT! You can't teach IT, and he has IT in spades. Too short, average arm, smallish hands, a little nutty off the field, but all the guy does is WIN, WIN, WIN! Wherever he goes. Mentally tough is a prerequisite in the NFL and I see Baker as a jump on my back, rise in this moment QB. Those types get everyone involved, raise everyone's confidence, and stay calm & perform in the most demanding moments like 2 minutes offenses, end of game drives ect.

So, there you have the Jetsters take on the QBs at 3. Allen, Mayfield, Rosen in that order. I think all 3 will be NFL QBs. The only reason Mayfield slips into 2nd is the durability issues of Rosen. Go Jets.

This is the definition of FOMO (fear of missing out)... a quantifiable social psychology phenomenon that is prevalent especially in wallstreet/investment banking....

This year, it's taking the NFL draft by storm.

 

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Take this for what it's worth - as it's not an official combine results - but still something interesting to review with a month to go..

http://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-2018-NFL-Combine/10241/dh/

You're trying to make my blood boil, arent you?   

[Bruce Harper]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

If Mason Rudolph wore a headband and had this mythical “moxy” that people perceive Mayfield having, he would be getting a lot more attention.  

I’m having a hard time believing that Mayfield is a better prospect than Rudolph.   Other than “moxy” and the headband thing, what does Mayfield do better than Rudolph? And better yet why would transition to the NFL better than Rudolph?

Rudolph's numbers are also impressive but I would argue not nearly as good as Mayfield's.  And yes, I agree that the headband thing is irritating, even though I like the guy.

[jetsons]

How do you pass on Josh Allen?

easy... VERY easy

[Bruce Harper]

2 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Jets fans see Mayfield grabbing his dick and talking sh*t to the opposing team and can’t help but fantasize about him in a Jets uniform doing the same to the Patriots on Sunday’s.

That’s what it really comes down to at the end of the day.

The Drew Brees and Russell Wilson comparisons are ridiculous IMO. Realistically, Mayfield’s ceiling is more akin to a Jeff Garcia. 

And I’m sure as sh*t not passing on potentially the next Big Ben in favor of the next Jeff Garcia.

i could call Allen the next Kyle Boller, Rick Mirer or Ryan Leaf.   It's just a label you're putting on the guy to win the argument.  And by the way, Big Ben was a pretty accurate passer in college.  I'm not sure the comparison is apt, except as to height.

[Fantasy Island]

Allen is a project, no thanks.  Draft Mayfield.

[Bruce Harper]

51 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/26/17162670/nfl-draft-josh-allen-hype-vs-reality

Quotes:

In early February, NumberFire’s Jim Sannes conducted a statistical analysis of all the quarterbacks eligible for the 2018 draft, and the salient point requires no context: “Among players in this class, Allen is last in every category except for games played. There, he is instead tied for last with [USC’s Sam] Darnold.”

....

Allen could very well become a good (or even great) professional quarterback, but all of the objective evidence suggests that selecting him is a much riskier proposition than pretty much any other prospect expected to go in the first few rounds of the draft. If drafting unpredictable amateur athletes is all about assessing and projecting risk, then any team selecting Allen in the top 10 is making a flawed decision.

....

So, if your favorite team could potentially draft Allen, I implore you to take a page out of the old baseball scout’s notebook and imagine in your mind’s eye what he could do. Let yourself be enchanted by his prototypical build. Fall prey to his cannon arm; call it a rocket launcher; lose an entire weekend wondering what piece of heavy machinery best describes the upper portion of that right limb. Gaze longingly at his good face. Watch his college highlight reel—which strips out all of Allen’s incompletions (read: nearly half of his passes), turns his best plays into his only plays, and backs it all with inoffensive replacement-level rap music—and fall under the same spell that has dazzled so many draftniks:

At his best, Allen belongs in a special class of athlete: the kind that begs for the dimensions of the playing surface to be expanded. Thanks to a surreal level of physical prowess, these players are able to make the kinds of decisions that aren’t even available to the majority of their peers. It’s LeBron James flicking a no-look pass with three fingers. It’s Steven Gerrard picking out the far-post upper corner while falling toward the sideline. It’s Barry Bonds slapping an opposite field home run against Greg Maddux. And it’s Allen making a 40-yard post pattern look as simple a 5-yard slant route. But there’s one obvious difference: The other three made careers out of consistently rewriting the geometries of their sports, while for Allen, the mistakes have exceeded the myth-making.

According to a study done by Scott Kacsmar for Football Outsiders, the success rate (which Kacsmar admits is subjectively defined) of any first-round quarterback from 1994 to 2016 was less than 30 percent. For someone with Allen’s uninspiring track record, the odds would seem to be even lower than that. But if you’re a Jets fan, a Bills fan, a Cardinals fan, or a fan of almost any other QB-needy team, take solace in this: The chances are still greater than zero. 

[Dupe]

Perhaps we are comparing a Roethlisberger to a Pennington. I could get behind and enjoy either.  Rosen looks to me like he is a perfect fit and I could almost see him wearing green already.  I do however think Allen is the alpha dog in this QB class. When your drafting I think you have to take the best tallent.  

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

How do you pass on Josh Allen?

Easy, you turn in a card with someone else's name on it.

Duh.

[peebag]

this is the game I attended

The throws by Josh Allen in this clip are the only decent ones he made that day.

I came away very unimpressed.

[RVAJet815]

9 minutes ago, peebag said:

this is the game I attended

The throws by Josh Allen in this clip are the only decent ones he made that day.

I came away very unimpressed.

Yep. As a husker fan myself, I go back to this performance a lot in my mind. Granted, it's a snapshot in this kid's life and it's an unfair standard...but holy cow was he bad that day. 

[peebag]

2 minutes ago, RVAJet815 said:

Yep. As a husker fan myself, I go back to this performance a lot in my mind. Granted, it's a snapshot in this kid's life and it's an unfair standard...but holy cow was he bad that day. 

GBR!

[jetsons]

37 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

i could call Allen the next Kyle Boller, Rick Mirer or Ryan Leaf.   It's just a label you're putting on the guy to win the argument.  And by the way, Big Ben was a pretty accurate passer in college.  I'm not sure the comparison is apt, except as to height.

And Jeff Garcia IS WAYYYYYYYY BETTER Than allen.

[Jetster]

10 minutes ago, peebag said:

this is the game I attended

The throws by Josh Allen in this clip are the only decent ones he made that day.

I came away very unimpressed.

I have no idea who's going to rise out of the ashes of this draft. I just wonder how all of these other QBs would be ranked had they QBed at Wyoming instead of UCLA, USC, or Oklahoma? I try to imagine Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield, running away from constant pressure vs Iowa, while trying to hit crappy WRs getting little to no separation, or RBs losing 3 yards & playing with many, many, down & distance deficiencies. That's the most troubling thing to try & process. It's like looking at Steve Youngs career at Tampa Bay with a bunch of slapdicks & his career at San Francisco throwing to Rice & Taylor, handing off to Craig & Rathman, hitting the TE Brent Jones. 

 

[jetsons]

3 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Exactly.  What does Mayfield do or have that makes him so special?  I just don’t see it.  

WIN... Lead the league in Percentage Completion & Touchdowns. 

[Jazy8ball]

2 hours ago, Pcola said:

For everyone crying about durability, Josh Allen has missed more games the last three years than Josh Rosen.  

The Rosen haters should probably find something else to keep harping this guy for.

Allen missed time with concussions?