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How do you pass on Josh Allen?

Jetster

By Jetster
in NY Jets Forum

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jetsons

jetsons

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Your thinking is very much aligned with mine.  

The Jets first round draft board will only have 3 names on it - and, IMO, because of the injury risk Rosen shouldn't be one of them.

 

Mine only has 2 & rosen & allen are NOT on it.

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sec101row23

sec101row23

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, jetsons said:

WIN... Lead the league in Percentage Completion & Touchdowns. 

Ok, so you counter with stats.  How about this?   Would you take this guy from a top power 5 conference was a winner in college and put up these numbers:

67%  3286 yards. 32 TDS, 6 INTs 

 

Plus, Blake Bell, a guy who was essentially a TE, had a 60% completion percentage in OU’s system. 

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FidelioJet

FidelioJet

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Jetster said:

I have no idea who's going to rise out of the ashes of this draft. I just wonder how all of these other QBs would be ranked had they QBed at Wyoming instead of UCLA, USC, or Oklahoma? I try to imagine Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield, running away from constant pressure vs Iowa, while trying to hit crappy WRs getting little to no separation, or RBs losing 3 yards & playing with many, many, down & distance deficiencies. That's the most troubling thing to try & process. It's like looking at Steve Youngs career at Tampa Bay with a bunch of slapdicks & his career at San Francisco throwing to Rice & Taylor, handing off to Craig & Rathman, hitting the TE Brent Jones. 

 

That's it - and that's why this isn't Moneyball.  That's what the scouts are all trying to figure out.

Was his completion percantage low because he was forcing balls to covered recievers?

Did his receivers drop too many balls because they weren't as good and couldn't handle his ball or did he not have enough touch on them to make them catchable?

Were his INT's a product of trying to win - and forcing balls even though guys were covered.  So, knowing better but doing it anyway.

etc...I don't have the answers but we have to hope our "experts" do..

One thing we can say about the Jets this year - they've definitely put in the time and work with the QB's. Right choice or not, I don't know - but I'm confident they're going to make a thoughtful and well informed decision.

 

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jetsons

jetsons

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Ok, so you counter with stats.  How about this?   Would you take this guy from a top power 5 conference was a winner in college and put up these numbers:

67%  3286 yards. 32 TDS, 6 INTs 

I'd have to see him play 1st... Numbers ALONE don't paint the full picture...  if you've ACTUALLY Seen Mayfield play then you Know he has what it takes... No Ifs, Ands Or Buts.

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Sonny Werblin

Sonny Werblin

Posted
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4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

If Mason Rudolph wore a headband and had this mythical “moxy” that people perceive Mayfield having, he would be getting a lot more attention.  

I’m having a hard time believing that Mayfield is a better prospect than Rudolph.   Other than “moxy” and the headband thing, what does Mayfield do better than Rudolph? And better yet why would transition to the NFL better than Rudolph?

I think you make some valid points. But, Rudolph is not as accurate a thrower as Mayfield and does not have the signature wins that Mayfield has. And, oh yeah, the Moxy is not not "mythical". The guy walked on to two D1 programs and beat out the scholarship starting QB.

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jetsons

jetsons

Posted
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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Okay, I'll bite...

So, if you only have two...

1) Do you not take a player if they're both gone?

2) If not Rosen and Allen - then who are your two?

1) If they're both gone I'd look to trade down.

2) Mayfield & Darnold... in that order.

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Sonny Werblin

Sonny Werblin

Posted
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1 hour ago, Dupe said:

Perhaps we are comparing a Roethlisberger to a Pennington. I could get behind and enjoy either.  Rosen looks to me like he is a perfect fit and I could almost see him wearing green already.  I do however think Allen is the alpha dog in this QB class. When your drafting I think you have to take the best tallent.  

Alpha Dogs don't go to non power 5 football teams and fail to statistically bury their weak (and D2) opponents. 

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SMC

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Mayfield and Watson are very similar in ways. 

Besides Watson being a better athlete than Mayfield, taller/stronger/heavier, playing in a tougher conference, beating every big team he's faced and not being a dick?

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Pcola

Pcola

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22 minutes ago, Jazy8ball said:

Allen missed time with concussions? 

Josh missed one game and then sat out the Bowl game after UCLA fires their HC.  I have yet to see any confirmation that the man had 2 concussions or the extent of these injuries.

So many people in here playing neurologists that it’s quite humorous.  

Maybe we need to stay away from Mayfield because he’s 4” shorter than the average pass rusher.  When they hit, he might get a concussion and have to retire.

In fact, let’s get us a QB that is 6’8” that way no one is tall enough to hit him in the head.

Of course, then you worry about his knees.

Passing on a QB that will essentially be a concensus home run pick because he MIGHT get injured down the road is asinine.  Brady has played for 18 years.  Brees for 17 years. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, 15 years.

This isn’t the 1960’s where there was no limit to the punishment defenders could deliver.

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Sonny Werblin

Sonny Werblin

Posted
Posted

The only team that is going to get a great value pick at QB in this draft is going to be the team that selects Lamar Jackson. The "value" of the top 3 or 4 QB is being artificially inflated by QB desperate teams. Darnold and Rosen are the only QB's even worth considering as a top 5 selection, and that is based mostly on need. The other 3 are more in the 7 to 12 range. I bet someone gets a steal selecting Jackson at 15 or later.  

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Jazy8ball

Jazy8ball

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1 minute ago, Pcola said:

Josh missed one game and then sat out the Bowl game after UCLA fires their HC.  I have yet to see any confirmation that the man had 2 concussions or the extent of these injuries.

So many people in here playing neurologists that it’s quite humorous.  

Maybe we need to stay away from Mayfield because he’s 4” shorter than the average pass rusher.  When they hit, he might get a concussion and have to retire.

In fact, let’s get us a QB that is 6’8” that way no one is tall enough to hit him in the head.

Of course, then you worry about his knees.

Passing on a QB that will essentially be a concensus home run pick because he MIGHT get injured down the road is asinine.  Brady has played for 18 years.  Brees for 17 years. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, 15 years.

This isn’t the 1960’s where there was no limit to the punishment defenders could deliver.

What QB is a consensus home run? 

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DoubleDown

DoubleDown

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Posted

Quite simple: Darnold and/or Rosen are still on the board.

If both are gone at #3, it's a toss up between Allen and Mayfield for me.  Based on college production, Mayfield is the no brainer, but I think Allen has come a long way in his development the past few months.  He seems like a different QB based on his performances at the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Day.  Perhaps draft preparation has taken his game to the next level?

I think it's going to come down to private workouts and meetings.  Supposedly Allen did surprisingly well on the white board.

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SMC

SMC

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Jethead said:

Everybody is worried that Josh Allen = Hackenburg.

I'm worried that Mayfield = Petty.

 

The Hackenburg-itis is a thing with the Allen hate.

But I'm actually worried that Mayfield = Jason White

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Pcola

Pcola

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4 minutes ago, Jazy8ball said:

What QB is a consensus home run? 

Clearly it’s Darnold and Rosen.  There’s no lack of experience, arm talent, accuracy, acumen to learn a pro system, etc.

There are questions on all the other QB prospects.    This is common thinking right now.  I’m not sure why some on here can’t fathom that.

Josh Allen has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft.  But because of accuracy concerns and the fact that he only averaged 164 yards passing per game during his last season at WY, the odds that he could put it all together are so much we lower than the other 3 QBs.

Dont hate on my opinion, if you don’t agree then simply give me another example of a QB taken in the top 10 that was inaccurate and had so few yards passing in college that was somehow able to become an elite pro.  Let’s not go skimming through the 60’s or 70’s for an example.  But If you can any in the last 20 years, I would be shocked.

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3 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Quite simple: Darnold and/or Rosen are still on the board.

If both are gone at #3, it's a toss up between Allen and Mayfield for me.  Based on college production, Mayfield is the no brainer, but I think Allen has come a long way in his development the past few months.  He seems like a different QB based on his performances at the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Day.  Perhaps draft preparation has taken his game to the next level?

I think it's going to come down to private workouts and meetings.  Supposedly Allen did surprisingly well on the white board.

That's the thing for me, there's no way I'm taking Mayfield at 3.

Take Allen and park him on the bench as McCown & Teddy get the Jets another high 1st rounder for 2019.  Hackenberg simply shouldn't have been drafted.  He's not remotely the same as Allen.  He had a good freshman year but sucked afterwards and Macc was nuts for being so high on Hack.

Simply coach up Allen.  He seems coachable and he's physically gifted.

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Sonny Werblin

Sonny Werblin

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5 minutes ago, SMC said:

That's the thing for me, there's no way I'm taking Mayfield at 3.

Take Allen and park him on the bench as McCown & Teddy get the Jets another high 1st rounder for 2019.  Hackenberg simply shouldn't have been drafted.  He's not remotely the same as Allen.  He had a good freshman year but sucked afterwards and Macc was nuts for being so high on Hack.

Simply coach up Allen.  He seems coachable and he's physically gifted.

Coach him up? Wasn't one of the things that brought attention to him the fact that his coach at Wyoming coached Wentz? Why couldn't he "Coach him up". Do you think his coach told him to force the ball and refuse to throw timing patterns?

Frankly, Darnold and Rosen are the only guys worth taking at 3. If we don't get one of them, we were bettor of sticking at 6 with our additional picks and just picking the QB that fell to us at 6.

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DoubleDown

DoubleDown

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4 minutes ago, SMC said:

That's the thing for me, there's no way I'm taking Mayfield at 3.

Take Allen and park him on the bench as McCown & Teddy get the Jets another high 1st rounder for 2019.  Hackenberg simply shouldn't have been drafted.  He's not remotely the same as Allen.  He had a good freshman year but sucked afterwards and Macc was nuts for being so high on Hack.

Simply coach up Allen.  He seems coachable and he's physically gifted.

Fair enough.

My worry with this approach is that Petty and Hackenberg were also "coach up" prospects, and the Jets coaches were not able to get it done.  Granted, Allen is much more physically gifted, but the Jets' track record in this department is not good.

Mayfield is more pro ready IMO.  If he was 3 inches taller, I think he would be the consensus #1 prospect in this draft.

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1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Coach him up? Wasn't one of the things that brought attention to him the fact that his coach at Wyoming coached Wentz? Why couldn't he "Coach him up". Do you think his coach told him to force the ball and refuse to throw timing patterns?

Frankly, Darnold and Rosen are the only guys worth taking at 3. If we don't get one of them, we were bettor of sticking at 6 with our additional picks and just picking the QB that fell to us at 6.

Talent disparity might be an issue with Allen forcing the issue.  Allen already said he had a footwork issue which caused his inaccuracy and he's working on it.  That was the reference to the "coach up" point.

I agree with you on Darnold and Rosen.  They made the trade so can't get a mulligan.  Yes, if they don't come out with Darnold/Rosen they might have been better off at 6, but Allen is a good consolation prize.  Someone else mentioned that Allen is Scout Narcotics.  His tools are crazy, but you have to coach him.  Whether the Jets have the right coaches is a different discussion.

At the end of the day, if it's 3 QBs going 1st 3 I hope it's 1. Darnold, 2. Allen, 3. Rosen.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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3 minutes ago, Sully80 said:

These project QBs rarely work out. I can't think of one guy who coming out everyone said he had to sit for a season or two before he maximizes his potential. What does come to mind is Hackenberg, Osweiller, Lynch, etc.

Kaepernick and Romo you could say. Garoppolo too, if he continues

Rodgers sat for 3 years

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SMC

SMC

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5 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Fair enough.

My worry with this approach is that Petty and Hackenberg were also "coach up" prospects, and the Jets coaches were not able to get it done.  Granted, Allen is much more physically gifted, but the Jets' track record in this department is not good.

Mayfield is more pro ready IMO.  If he was 3 inches taller, I think he would be the consensus #1 prospect in this draft.

Hackenberg was over-drafted, but Petty was a mid rounder for a reason.  That's more of a flyer than a "coach up" prospect.  The odds against Petty succeeding were high.

Also, any QBs from the mid-rounds that became good starting QBs were never really coached up.  They were essentially under-drafted, and had a chip on their shoulders that pushed them to succeed.  In other words, they became good by their own accord and not the influence of coaching per se.  It is first rounders with great physical talent that benefits from coaching.

Mayfield isn't "pro ready" for me because he's the size of a RB playing QB.  Putting aside that he's a dick, size matters for QBs and Mayfield will get crushed behind the line by pro DLineman (something he hasn't really faced in college).

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Sully80

Sully80

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2 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Kaepernick and Romo you could say. Garoppolo too, if he continues

Rodgers sat for 3 years

No one said Rodgers or Garroppollo were projects. I'm not sure of Romo's draft profile. Kaepernick maybe, but his success was a flash in the pan

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DoubleDown

DoubleDown

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SMC said:

Mayfield isn't "pro ready" for me because he's the size of a RB playing QB.  Putting aside that he's a dick, size matters for QBs and Mayfield will get crushed behind the line by pro DLineman (something he hasn't really faced in college).

When I say pro ready, I mean in terms of skills.  Obviously, size is not something that can be fixed.  Are you suggesting due to his size, he has no chance of success and is essentially undraftable?

While the Russell Wilsons of the world are the exception not the rule, I do think Mayfield has some special qualities to him.  Are they enough to overcome his physical limitations?  Only time will tell.  To me, Mayfield is a short Mariota with better accuracy.  I think he'll be successful in the NFL if you give him some protection.

 

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Jets Voice of Reason

Jets Voice of Reason

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9 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Accuracy, quick release, ability to move in the pocket, and anticipation all jump out to me.

Also has 48 games played. Reportedly has a good work ethic and is impressive on the whiteboard and quick decisionmaking.

Granted spread offense inflates stats and makes decisionmaking easier. his height is a major issue obviously. 

There is a lot to like but he's still flawed. People are being way too drastic in speculating future success here. None of us know for sure. 

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