How do you pass on Josh Allen?

[SMC]

10 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

When I say pro ready, I mean in terms of skills.  Obviously, size is not something that can be fixed.  Are you suggesting due to his size, he has no chance of success and is essentially undraftable?

While the Russell Wilsons of the world are the exception not the rule, I do think Mayfield has some special qualities to him.  Are they enough to overcome his physical limitations?  Only time will tell.  To me, Mayfield is a short Mariota with better accuracy.  I think he'll be successful in the NFL if you give him some protection.

 

Mayfield is not undraftable because of his size.  His size makes him a 3rd to 5th rounder. Low risk, high reward.  His physical limitations could be an absolute barrier to success.  People forget that Drew Brees in the 2nd round was considered a reach and he was also considered a failure until he had a breakout season when the Chargers drafted Rivers.  He is the exception.

In other words, Mayfield has to be an exception as well and that shouldn't be a choice a team has to make at the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

[Jazy8ball]

31 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Clearly it’s Darnold and Rosen.  There’s no lack of experience, arm talent, accuracy, acumen to learn a pro system, etc.

There are questions on all the other QB prospects.    This is common thinking right now.  I’m not sure why some on here can’t fathom that.

Josh Allen has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft.  But because of accuracy concerns and the fact that he only averaged 164 yards passing per game during his last season at WY, the odds that he could put it all together are so much we lower than the other 3 QBs.

Dont hate on my opinion, if you don’t agree then simply give me another example of a QB taken in the top 10 that was inaccurate and had so few yards passing in college that was somehow able to become an elite pro.  Let’s not go skimming through the 60’s or 70’s for an example.  But If you can any in the last 20 years, I would be shocked.

I am not hating on your opinion at all..  Everyone is entitled to their opinion.. I would be fine with any of the 4. I'm not an expert but I just did a quick search of the top completion percentage in college. Here are the top 5. My question is, if completion percentage is so important and Allen is going to be a bust because his is below 60%, why are these guys not all pro players? I'm just having a conversation please don't take this a confrontational. 

 

1	Colt Brennan*	70.39	2005	2007	Hawaii
2	Colt McCoy*	70.33	2006	2009	Texas
3	Kellen Moore*	69.78	2008	2011	Boise State
4	Graham Harrell*	69.77	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Brandon Weeden*	69.54	2008	2011	Oklahoma Stat

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, Jazy8ball said:

I am not hating on your opinion at all..  Everyone is entitled to their opinion.. I would be fine with any of the 4. I'm not an expert but I just did a quick search of the top completion percentage in college. Here are the top 5. My question is, if completion percentage is so important and Allen is going to be a bust because his is below 60%, why are these guys not all pro players? I'm just having a conversation please don't take this a confrontational. 

 

1	Colt Brennan*	70.39	2005	2007	Hawaii
2	Colt McCoy*	70.33	2006	2009	Texas
3	Kellen Moore*	69.78	2008	2011	Boise State
4	Graham Harrell*	69.77	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Brandon Weeden*	69.54	2008	2011	Oklahoma Stat

Most will say that high completion% doesn't guarantee success but low completion% does suggest failure.  Sort of like saying, you need more than this, but you at least need this.

Not an unreasonable position but of course there will be outliers.

 

[DoubleDown]

1 minute ago, SMC said:

Mayfield is not undraftable because of his size.  His size makes him a 3rd to 5th rounder. Low risk, high reward.  His physical limitations could be an absolute barrier to success.  People forget that Drew Brees in the 2nd round was considered a reach and he was also considered a failure until he had a breakout season when the Chargers drafted Rivers.  He is the exception.

In other words, Mayfield has to be an exception as well and that shouldn't be a choice a team has to make at the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

I can respect that, and that's why Allen and Mayfield are a toss up for me at #3 (assuming Darnold and Rosen are off the board).  I think Mayfield is the better football player by far at this stage of their careers, but it's hard to get past the physical limitations.  They both scare me, for very different reasons.

It's a tough decision, no doubt.  Like I said, I think it will come down to private meetings and workouts, something we are fans do not have access to or information about.

[jgb]

Unless Darnold is there Macc will go Allen because it's defensible. Macc cares  about Macc. Otherwise he would've send Hack packing already.

[FidelioJet]

20 minutes ago, nycdan said:

http://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/203116571.html/

This is a fun bit about the scouting reports on Rodgers before his draft.  

Thanks for sharing - that was fun.

That's what these guys do this time of year - they look to punch holes, that's their job. Still just amazing to read about how they were so wrong -

[SMC]

Just now, DoubleDown said:

I can respect that, and that's why Allen and Mayfield are a toss up for me at #3 (assuming Darnold and Rosen are off the board).  I think Mayfield is the better football player by far at this stage of their careers, but it's hard to get past the physical limitations.  They both scare me, for very different reasons.

It's a tough decision, no doubt.  Like I said, I think it will come down to private meetings and workouts, something we are fans do not have access to or information about.

The bottom line is that if Mayfield's parents gave him more milk as a child we wouldn't be having this debate and no one would question taking Mayfield at 3.

But we live in a different world and, IMO, you simply have to bet on Allen's physical gifts and (if a coaching staff), your own ability to coach and train him to best utilize those gifts.

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Thanks for sharing - that was fun.

That's what these guys do this time of year - they look to punch holes, that's their job. Still just amazing to read about how they were so wrong -

And that's the point.  Other than Peyton and Luck, every QB gets picked apart at this time of year.  And sometimes those criticisms turn out to be completely wrong.  

 

[FidelioJet]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Unless Darnold is there Macc will go Allen because it's defensible. Macc cares  about Macc. Otherwise he would've send Hack packing already.

This has always been my concern - not so much for Allen - as I like him - but in general with Mac...

That he'll make the most palatable/safe choice instead of making the one he really wants.

As fans, at this point, all we can do his hope Mac has done all of his research, spoke with all of his coaches and makes a decision based on what he thinks is in the long term best interests of the Jets. 

for instance, I would hate for him to pass on Mayfield, if he thinks he's the best player, just because they traded up...

Or take Rosen, even though he think he's a serious injury risk, just because it's what the fans want..

etc..

Do what you think is best and don't look back.

[peebag]

1 hour ago, jetsons said:

and Brady had to split time with Henson...  but your remark has ZERO to do with the question asked.

sure it does, you want to make Mayfield the 3rd pick the draft yet the guy who beat him out @ Texas Tech only went 10th - 

[Bruce Harper]

11 minutes ago, SMC said:

Mayfield is not undraftable because of his size.  His size makes him a 3rd to 5th rounder. Low risk, high reward.  His physical limitations could be an absolute barrier to success.  People forget that Drew Brees in the 2nd round was considered a reach and he was also considered a failure until he had a breakout season when the Chargers drafted Rivers.  He is the exception.

In other words, Mayfield has to be an exception as well and that shouldn't be a choice a team has to make at the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

We can agree to disagree but if he goes in the 3rd to 5th there will be a lot of GMs feeling pretty stupid in three or four years.  I haven't heard anybody else think that he should go that low. 

And how does the example of Drew Brees prove your point?  Because some people thought he went too high?  He has been one of the four or five best QBs in the NFL for many years now.  And he played very well for San Diego too.  They were just nervous about giving him a big contract coming off an injury.

[FidelioJet]

About Rodgers - this was my favorite...

AFC scout: "He's a system quarterback. 3-, 5-, 7-step guy. Can't create on his own. Panics under pressure. Gets flustered easy. 

[jetsons]

2 minutes ago, peebag said:

sure it does, you want to make Mayfield the 3rd pick the draft yet the guy who beat him out @ Texas Tech only went 10th - 

and the guy who's going down as the GOAT was drafted 199...  it doesn't matter where you were drafted it matters what you do once you're drafted...  see Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Gholston, Mamula, Couch.. etc.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This has always been my concern - not so much for Allen - as I like him - but in general with Mac...

That he'll make the most palatable/safe choice instead of making the one he really wants.

As fans, at this point, all we can do his hope Mac has done all of his research, spoke with all of his coaches and makes a decision based on what he thinks is in the long term best interests of the Jets. 

for instance, I would hate for him to pass on Mayfield, if he thinks he's the best player, just because they traded up...

Or take Rosen, even though he think he's a serious injury risk, just because it's what the fans want..

etc..

Do what you think is best and don't look back.

Completely agree. I wish Jets stayed at 6 Better chance at Mayfield. I would be shocked happy if Macc goes Baker at 3. We all know it won't happen. Macc isn't moving up for a 6 foot guy with chutzpah.

[Bruce Harper]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

The only team that is going to get a great value pick at QB in this draft is going to be the team that selects Lamar Jackson. The "value" of the top 3 or 4 QB is being artificially inflated by QB desperate teams. Darnold and Rosen are the only QB's even worth considering as a top 5 selection, and that is based mostly on need. The other 3 are more in the 7 to 12 range. I bet someone gets a steal selecting Jackson at 15 or later.  

I am a bit worried that the Bills could take him at 12.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

I am a bit worried that the Bills could take him at 12.

Bills will take Mayfield and he'll make it his mission to devastate the Jets for passing on him. Because it's not painful enough for the Jets to pass on a guy. We will be destined to be Marino'd by him for the next decade.

[Bruce Harper]

Notwithstanding the opinions offered in this thread, Mayfield will not make it to twelve.  No way.  But they could trade up for him if we don't draft him.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Bruce Harper said:

Notwithstanding the opinions offered in this thread, Mayfield will not make it to twelve.  No way.  But they could trade up for him if we don't draft him.

yes i agree

[jetsons]

50 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Kaepernick and Romo you could say. Garoppolo too, if he continues

Rodgers sat for 3 years

Romo wasn't a project he just never got the chance, once he did he excelled... his arm & throwing motion were always the same... kap blows, Garoppolo & Rogers are not & were not considered projects as well...  Next

[Sonny Werblin]

I continue to believe that all of the scout/team exec praise of Josh Allen is an elaborate ruse to trick the browns into using the #1 pick on him.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I continue to believe that all of the scout/team exec praise of Josh Allen is an elaborate ruse to trick the browns into using the #1 pick on him.

Browns won't pass on Darnold. Could work on Jints--pick a guy with potential who needs seasoning since they still have Eli.

[Sonny Werblin]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Browns won't pass on Darnold. Could work on Jints--pick a guy with potential who needs seasoning since they still have Eli.

Devils advocate says tyrod Taylor can start for a year or two while Allen is "coached up" whereas Darnold starts an immediate WB controversy.

Personally, I feel like the browns should be so desperate to finally get a QB that they should pick 2. That way they double their chance of finding their franchise QB.

[jgb]

Just now, Sonny Werblin said:

Devils advocate says tyrod Taylor can start for a year or two while Allen is "coached up" while Darnold starts an immediate WB controversy.

Personally, I feel like the browns should be so desperate to finally get a QB that they should pick 2. That way they double their chance of finding their franchise QB.

If Browns pass on Darnold Macc better man up and trade up to 2 and take Darnold.

[Pcola]

37 minutes ago, Jazy8ball said:

I am not hating on your opinion at all..  Everyone is entitled to their opinion.. I would be fine with any of the 4. I'm not an expert but I just did a quick search of the top completion percentage in college. Here are the top 5. My question is, if completion percentage is so important and Allen is going to be a bust because his is below 60%, why are these guys not all pro players? I'm just having a conversation please don't take this a confrontational. 

 

1	Colt Brennan*	70.39	2005	2007	Hawaii
2	Colt McCoy*	70.33	2006	2009	Texas
3	Kellen Moore*	69.78	2008	2011	Boise State
4	Graham Harrell*	69.77	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Brandon Weeden*	69.54	2008	2011	Oklahoma Stat

Good point.  There are minimums.  Kind of like, if you are not 7’0” the chances of you being a good center are much lower.  That doesn’t mean that everyone that is 7’0” will be a good center.

In the NFL, to be an elite QB, you need a strong enough arm to make all the throws, you need timing and anticipation, you need to be able to identify what the defense is trying to do and somehow determine how to make a play.  

But even if you can do all these things, if you can’t spot the ball where you need to, you are going to have a ton of three and outs.

The “open WR” in the NFL is covered in college.  The windows are so much smaller and precise.

Think about Mark Sanchez.  He checked just about all of these boxes but just was not that accurate throwing the ball.  That’s what led to a lot of his interceptions.

I was at the LAC game this past December.  Watching Petty throw the ball into the dirt was demoralizing to all the OL.  So much so, you could visibly see the frustration in their body language as they stormed off the field.

So while the QBs you mentioned had college accuracy, they all had multiple issues with regards to arm strength, size, or football IQ that prevented them from being highly regarded prospects.

[peebag]

33 minutes ago, jetsons said:

and the guy who's going down as the GOAT was drafted 199...  it doesn't matter where you were drafted it matters what you do once you're drafted...  see Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Gholston, Mamula, Couch.. etc.

and Mayfield is not going to be the GOAT - his upside will be Chase Daniels.

[kelly]

" How do you pass on Josh Allen? "..

[jetsons]

Just now, peebag said:

and Mayfield is not going to be the GOAT - his upside will be Chase Daniels.

your opinion...  NO ONE SAW Brady coming.

[Fed Hill Jet]

1 hour ago, Sully80 said:

These project QBs rarely work out. I can't think of one guy who coming out everyone said he had to sit for a season or two before he maximizes his potential. What does come to mind is Hackenberg, Osweiller, Lynch, etc.

I know they made him a, project, but that was the plan with Rodgers

 

[ZachEY]

2 hours ago, Jazy8ball said:

I am not hating on your opinion at all..  Everyone is entitled to their opinion.. I would be fine with any of the 4. I'm not an expert but I just did a quick search of the top completion percentage in college. Here are the top 5. My question is, if completion percentage is so important and Allen is going to be a bust because his is below 60%, why are these guys not all pro players? I'm just having a conversation please don't take this a confrontational. 

 

1	Colt Brennan*	70.39	2005	2007	Hawaii
2	Colt McCoy*	70.33	2006	2009	Texas
3	Kellen Moore*	69.78	2008	2011	Boise State
4	Graham Harrell*	69.77	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Brandon Weeden*	69.54	2008	2011	Oklahoma Stat

Because not all data is predictive in both directions.

If I’m an NBA GM I wouldn’t draft a dwarf, but that doesn’t mean that everyone who is 7’3 can play.

[pointman]

[SMC]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I continue to believe that all of the scout/team exec praise of Josh Allen is an elaborate ruse to trick the browns into using the #1 pick on him.

If Darnold goes 1 and Allen 2, rest assured that there will be Jet fans who wanted no part of Allen lament the possibility that Allen might turn out great with the Giants.

[Jetster]

For what it's worth Charlie Weiss loves Baker Mayfield & believes he'd be a great pick for the Jets. He thinks he's got the right temperament for the Big Apple, no game is too big for him & loves his accuracy & chalk board smarts! I was like "Wow" listening to him say this. 

Or BB could have paid him $250,000 to f*ck the Jets over by picking Baker, lol.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

Seems like my boy is the talk of the board. I'm going to jump the gun and buy my Allen 17 jersey.

[Tinstar]

Easy, you put Josh Rosen's name on the card and send it to Roger Godell 

[southparkcpa]

53 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Seems like my boy is the talk of the board. I'm going to jump the gun and buy my Allen 17 jersey.

Phil Simms say Allen is the clear best QB in the draft.