Bass Pigskin Journal 2018 Draft thoughts

[Bass Pigskin Journal]

They say that in war the high ground is vital to possess in order to obtain victory. The greatest sacrifices take place in fighting for this key strategic advantage and for good cause; To fight from a position of strength is paramount in battle. The evidence of this truth is scribed in the vast volumes of history. The difficult to conquer cliffs of Omaha Beach on D-Day, Culps Hill and Cemetery Hill during the Battle of Gettysburg, and Mount Tapochau in the Battle of Saipan. The biggest prices were paid in seeking this ground as from high above you could control vast amounts of space below..

Just a week ago the New York Jets were in that valley below. They had plenty of firepower in the form of cap space and draft picks at their disposal but they lacked a key variable; The ability to dictate the war that is the 2018 NFL draft. In this years edition of the draft the stakes are incredibly high. Jet GM Mike Maccagnan knows that his job, and likely his future as an NFL executive, is on the line. There can be no Hackenberg moment. This time he has to deliver the goods. Yet he was entering the inflection point of his career fighting from poor soil. That all changed with a few phone calls to Indianapolis management last week.

Overnight the Jets, by aquiring the #3 overall pick at the cost of a trio of 2nd rounders, found themselves perched on the high above with all their guns and ammunition aimed directly at their competitors below. By making this move they not only will force the hand of others, they can and will have a massive impact on the Cleveland Browns who hold the #1 overall pick. All along both the #2 overall pick of the Giants and #3 pick previously held by Indy were likely trade targets from QB needy teams that needed to compete for whoever they deemed to be their top QB prospects. The Bills, Browns, Broncos, Dolphins as well as the Jets were all looking for long term QB solutions. While all made patchwork free agent moves, there remained huge appetite for a long term solution from each.

The Browns seemingly had the hammer. All they had to hope for was the Giants or Colts to be tempted by Quentin Nelson or Big Blue’s second best rated QB in the draft. While the debate rages on about the order of the big 4, all indications point to the Browns being enamoured with Sam Darnold, and for good reason. If all the chips fell as they wished, it would be an easy 1-2 punch. Darnold #1 overall, and then swing back around picking Saquon Barkley with the 4th overall. What a lethal offensive combination that would be. And then the Jets came along and traded up to the #3 slot.

At first glance the Browns’ path seems smooth. After all, if the Giants don’t trade the pick to a team desperate for a signal caller, they are either taking the guard Nelson, Josh Rosen or edge man supreme Bradley Chubb. Barkely still seems more of a distant choice for the G-men who have greater needs. The Jets would then follow with either Rosen, Mayfield or Allen and just like that Barkley is a Brown. The plan seems almost too easy for the Dog pounders.

But something lurks in the weeds. Hanging just below the Jets are a bevy of teams currently drooling at the prospect of a generational running back entering their system. All the intangibles point to Barkley being that guy, yet the absolute need in the 2018 NFL is to think quarterback first, and that dynamic is what prevents Barkley from being the #1 overall. The Browns know this and are in a bind. They would love to grab Barkley first overall but they cannot let their #1 quarterback choice slip below to the hungry vultures. They have no choice but to go quarterback and believe that the Giants and the Colts will leave their ultimate prize, Saquon Barkley, untouched. Now, just behind them, the Green predator lays in wait with options galore. 

There are arguably 6 quarterbacks in this draft who potentially could slot in the first round. Darnold seems to be the media darling for the moment. Then there is plenty of debate over the “tier 2” threesome of Allen, Rosen and Mayfield. Behind them sits Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson, each with a strong enough skill set that in other years they would be mentioned as a potential top 20 pick. The draft is just that deep this year. Maccagnan knows this as much as anyone. He also knows his rebuild is going to take more than just this year.

If he chooses so, he Mike Maccagnan could play the ultimate gambit. Moving back down the draft order for a package that would include potentially two or three #1 picks all the while getting one of the top 6 quarterbacks to fill the Jets desperate need. Lets think about these scenarios; sitting at #9 is a ready to win 49er team that would crave Barkley. If they think they are playoff bound in 2018, they may view their 2019 and 2020 1st rounders as being closer to 2nd round in quality. At #9 there is a chance that one of the top 4 quarterbacks is still available and if not, even further draft capital could be extracted again by trading further down knowing that both Rudolph (very accurate and efficient at Ok St.) and Jackson (insane athlete) can be had even later down the pike. Unlikely? Yes, but possible. At #7 sit the Bucs who are also desperate to fill a huge void at the running back position. Again while this seems a deep draft running backs, Barkely is undoubtedly an elite talent that rarely comes along. Tampa would ship at least next years #1 as well as a package of other picks and possibly a player in order to move into that slot.
 

And then there are the Bills. 

So much depends on how teams draft boards grade out the top 4 quarterbacks but the Bills undoubtedly want to be a player in this game. For all the hype surrounding AJ McCarron, he likely means little to them long term and with two 2018 first round picks, they could afford to part ways with three first round picks in order to get a turn key quarterback solution for the Orchard Park faithful. If Buffalo’s draft grades have THEIR guy still available at #3, and depending on how sticky the Giants are with the #2 pick, the Bills could unload the clip big time and sell out for now. 

They have been in a rebuilding phase for a couple of years and are arguably further ahead quality wise than the Jets. It would make sense as waiting for a 2019 draft class quarterback is risky given their 2019 pick may not be high enough to compete for Drew Lock (Missouri) amongst others. A Jet trade with the Bills would include the #12 overall, the #22 overall, the #53 overall plus 2019 considerations. In this scenario at 12 there is still a good chance that the #4 option, Mayfield or Allen, is still hanging around and if not they can wait until #22 to grab Rudolph or Jackson all the while getting another 1st round body at #12 to fill one of their many needs. Stranger things have happened on draft day.

In the end if the guy the Jets target as their top choice at #3 is still available, they won’t budge. There is so much debate about who is a sure thing in this draft. Quentin Nelson is undoubtedly the one guy that anyone should be happy about grabbing anywhere in the top 6. The Barkely hype is likely real too so he, as insane as it may seem, could be in play to the Jets though his availability is best leveraged given their many needs. There is some buzz about Bradley Chubb, arguably the best edge guy in this draft and a deep need for the Jet franchise seemingly forever, being the reason they moved up. The thing is this; If the offer is massive on draft day, when GM’s are known to panic and think in the moment, Maccagnan could accomplish something big. He could end up with his traded picks back AND additional #1 in 2019 (this rebuild is not going to take just this year), a top 6 QB and vital time bought in his tenure. After all, you don’t fire a GM who just loaded you up with 2019 picks and a 1st round quarteback prospect even if he is #5 or #6 on the list. Could this franchise yo-yo from the 6th overall to 3rd back to 7th or beyond? Nothing is off the table especially with the last hint coming in the form of a one year signing. Enter Teddy Bridgewater.

The forgotten QB from Louisville was inked to a “show me what you got” contract. People forget what Bridgewater did in outperforming his late 1st round pick status back in 2014. Behind a horrific offensive line and ending up on his back over 80 times in two seasons, he shredded NFL defences at over a 65% clip. Those kind of numbers earned him 2nd in NFL rookie of the year voting and a trip to the Pro Bowl the following year. His numbers at Louisville, where he was extremely efficient, carried over seamlessly to his NFL career. He is only 25 years old and for $5,000,000 on a one year deal, this is a no lose situation. If the knee has healed, he will immediately be as good as any of the draft QB options all of which carry some minor and major question marks. Josh McCown had to be signed at a big guarantee just for that reason. The Jets needed a guaranteed option going into 2018. He is fragile in his own right and while he is a gamer, he is a team player that would have no problem relinquishing the reins should Bridgewater develop back into the player he was before tearing his ACL. This is a very dynamic situation, and a threesome of McCown, Bridgewater and Rudolph/Jackson or even Mayfield or Allen who might be dangling around the 7th or 9th overall pick would be a huge upgrade over the clipboard cowboys who were behind Josh in 2017. 

Without trading up to Indy for the 3rd overall pick the Jets options were extremely limited. They had to let the chips fall and their pick would likely have carried far less trade value without the leverage that Barkley and the #3 or possibly #2 QB option presents. For the inexpensive cost of a few 2nd round picks they now sit atop the high ground holding all the cards. They are going into battle with huge strategic advantages and with a very good chance to win the war that is the 2018 NFL draft. 

Mac's job depends on it. 

[LIJetsFan]

Very nice article.  It's too bad Mac plays checkers instead of chess and so all the above is beyond him.    

[Doggin94it]

This a really well written article that proceeds from a terrible premise (the Jets may trade back from the spot they just traded up into!) to a completely ridiculous conclusion (the Jets should trade down and look at Rudolph or Jackson as their draft pick).  Sorry, no.

[k-met57]

the jets are trading down with the bills after trading up for a QB? ok....what a dumb write-up. hey i just finished pushing an 18 wheeler up the hill, why dont you drive it back down so i can push it back up again.

[Beerfish]

No team is going to trade future 1st rounders for a RB.

[BurnleyJet]

12 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

the jets are trading down with the bills after trading up for a QB? ok....what a dumb write-up. hey i just finished pushing an 18 wheeler up the hill, why dont you drive it back down so i can push it back up again.

He may move out if Darnold and Rosen are gone?

Im guessing his board is :-

Darnold.

Rosen.

Allen.

Mayfield (He's 3rd on my board).

[varjet]

No plan has any potential unless Mac and the Jets have formulated a Football Professional's view of the quarterbacks and their potential.

To me, it is the Giants that hold all the cards.  If the Giants are not in love with Rosen or Allen, it is they who should be trading down with the Browns.  They get more picks and likely Chubb or Fitzpatrick, or Allen if they like him.  Shurmur would know what to do with him.  

I do think that to take Allen or Mayfield, and project and potentially limited QB, instead of Barkley would be an error for the Jets.

The Jets are desperate and need to take a chance on a Rosen, Mayfield or Allen.  The Giants do not.  

[RVAJet815]

2 minutes ago, varjet said:

No plan has any potential unless Mac and the Jets have formulated a Football Professional's view of the quarterbacks and their potential.

To me, it is the Giants that hold all the cards.  If the Giants are not in love with Rosen or Allen, it is they who should be trading down with the Browns.  They get more picks and likely Chubb or Fitzpatrick, or Allen if they like him.  Shurmur would know what to do with him.  

I do think that to take Allen or Mayfield, and project and potentially limited QB, instead of Barkley would be an error for the Jets.

The Jets are desperate and need to take a chance on a Rosen, Mayfield or Allen.  The Giants do not.  

Yes, but that assumes the browns are sweating the Jets taking Saquon before they can. And it's probably a safe bet that the Jets won't be doing that. They didn't trade up to take a RB, regardless of his glowing draft profile. 

[FidelioJet]

Silly article...that requires two things to happen that simply would not...

1) The Jets didn't trade up to pass on one of their top 3 QB's - simply isn't happening

2) In today's NFL teams will not trade multiple first rounders for a RB - I don't care how good they are.

Well written just inplausabile premise.

[dbatesman]

Bass Pigskin Journal.........thank’s

[peebag]

How's the fishin?

[Jetster]

Why wouldn't the Browns just take Sam Darnold, Giants are on the clock, trade with the Giants from 4 to 2 with the Jets all in on a QB out of Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, the Giants will have a choice of Chubb or Nelson! AT FOUR! Some draft experts have Chubb & Nelson OVER the QBs as BAP in the top 10. 

Giants would get a high 2 for just moving back 1 spot really. Browns rule the draft with the Darnold/Barkley picks, Jets get their QB at 3, and the Giants win big, drafting Chubb or Nelson & getting MORE high picks from the Browns. Easy peasey, Gettleman gets his GOLD JACKET guy who DEFINITELY WON'T be there trading back to the Bills spot. 

[nycdan]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Silly article...that requires two things to happen that simply would not...

1) The Jets didn't trade up to pass on one of their top 3 QB's - simply isn't happening

2) In today's NFL teams will not trade multiple first rounders for a RB - I don't care how good they are.

Well written just inplausabile premise.

I would trade two first rounders for a completely healthy, 20-year-old Earl Campbell if I thought he could survive a little longer in today's league (thank you Bum Phillips).  And boy could the league use a player like that again.

[FidelioJet]

9 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I would trade two first rounders for a completely healthy, 20-year-old Earl Campbell if I thought he could survive a little longer in today's league (thank you Bum Phillips).  And boy could the league use a player like that again.

In 1978 I would have said the same thing - just a different level of Athlete right now - you just can't run people over like that anymore.

Closest you'll get it Marshawn Lynch - would you trade away multiple 1's for him?

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

In 1978 I would have said the same thing - just a different level of Athlete right now - you just can't run people over like that anymore.

Closest you'll get it Marshawn Lynch - would you trade away multiple 1's for him?

No but I don't think Lynch is anywhere near Campbell in terms of what they can each do.  But I agree (and did suggest that) that the league is different today and it might not work.  But if you could get stats like Earl put up for his first 3 years, but over a little longer period of time, would you drop two 1st rounders for that?  

I know...it's all hypothetical but at least it distracts us from the cage match going on in the mock draft thread

 

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

No but I don't think Lynch is anywhere near Campbell in terms of what they can each do.  But I agree (and did suggest that) that the league is different today and it might not work.  But if you could get stats like Earl put up for his first 3 years, but over a little longer period of time, would you drop two 1st rounders for that?  

I know...it's all hypothetical but at least it distracts us from the cage match going on in the mock draft thread

 

Oh, I get it.  Earl Cambell was my favorite non-Jet (and still is my favorite Non- Jet) Loved watching him play, the tear-away jersey and all...he was fun to watch and could carry his team.

Heck, a Barry Sanders now would be awesome...he's the best RB I think I ever saw - finding another version of him might be possible. I've heard people compare Barkley to him - I don't see it but I did hear it on WFAN last week.

[jetsons]

what I don't understand is ALL this barkley HYPE...  the guy was NOT even in the Top 25 in rushing (TOP 25!!!!)...  Sanders led the league in rushing and TD's... he didn't just lead it he CRUSHED IT.  Combine #'s in shorts & tees are nice but what you are producing on the Field is All I care about...  Sanders & Campbell.... Head & Shoulders better than barkley.

[TexJet]

Interesting premise. That would be a huge win for the Browns and would certainly help the Giants in the short term. The question is are the Giants fixated on drafting Eli's replacement in this draft.

[Bass Pigskin Journal]

The article was a complete hypothetical and as i said "they won't budge" if they have no drop off from the #2QB to the #3QB and beyond. The Giants do really hold the cards. Still, the Bat-phone will be ringing come that 3rd pick that we know. It's draft day and some GM is going to spazz this year as always...i would at least pick up the phone..  

[UntouchableCrew]

Idiotic article. Nobody is mortgaging their future for a RB and the Jets would be insane to give up what they gave up then trade down and take a 2nd tier QB. Completely nonsensical. Reads like some Kevin Costner Draft Day sh*t.

[RESNewYork]

I will be rooting for this scenario Bass Pigskin. Trade down for a 1st and 2nd rounder this year, and a 1st next year and draft Jackson.  

But not going to happen because why would Mac trade up to 3, without having 3 QBs he is happy with. 

[LIJetsFan]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Idiotic article. Nobody is mortgaging their future for a RB and the Jets would be insane to give up what they gave up then trade down and take a 2nd tier QB. Completely nonsensical. Reads like some Kevin Costner Draft Day sh*t.

Draft Day was on cable last night.  That is a great football flick!