Why Comparing College QBs Stats Doesn't Work

[Greensleeves]

This is a great explanation that shows why comparing completion %, etc. amongst college QBs is near impossible based on how most systems are too far removed from the NFL Game. This was taken from another message board, but I learned a lot from it. Makes me really want Rosen or Allen.

I really... really.... really.... despise stats at the NFL level. But I literally fall down laughing at them when someone compares the stats of college QB's. Trust me man.... this is useless information. But I'd be glad to explain it anyways. 

The first thing you need to understand is that college is different than the pro's. It's a bunch of young kids who have severely limited practice time via the NCAA. Therefore the game is based entirely on athleticism. The most effective systems in college are the Spread and Air Raid. The Air Raid for example is a conceptual offense that runs about 10 plays based on "concepts" rather than actual play calls. Your 5 year old could learn to run an Air Raid offense. Kids that come out of these systems have jacked up stats. Because the systems are entirely based on their athleticism. Previous QB's in these systems include Johnny Manziel who had EXCELLENT completion percentage and sucked balls in the NFL because he couldn't learn to run a timing offense to save his life. 

Josh Allen and Josh Rosen are in pure pro style offenses which are MUCH too complicated to run at the college level. Josh Allen's HC runs this type of system because he's trying to groom NFL QB's in order to get notoriety for his program. Carson Wentz came from the same system and was recruited by the same guy. Because Pro style systems are 100 times more complicated and much less effective their QB stats are not comparable to other college systems. Pro style QB's in college throw less TD's, have lower completion percentages, and throw more INT's. This is especially true if they are on a bad football team. Because the pro style offense is built on timing. It's an intricate machine in which every moving part has to be in the right place at the right time. There is predesigned footwork (developed by Paul Brown BTW) for every single throw. Go watch this and you'll have a better understanding of it.  
https://scout.com/nfl/browns/Video/QB-Walsh-part-1-of-7-8260141?View=Full

Once you understand how footwork is intricately tied to the timing and accuracy of plays in a pro style offense then you have to determine three things to judge a guys accuracy (especially in college.) First.... does the line consistently give him time to execute his footwork properly? In Josh Allens case the answer is hell no. Second.... Do the WR's properly count their steps, avoid the press, and create the proper window at the proper time. In Josh Allens case the answer is hell no. Third.... If the first two worked properly did the QB execute sound footwork and body mechanics delivering an accurate pass. In Josh Allens case the answer is hell no because it was impossible. But when he did..... he was very accurate and decisive. 

What we have here is a system that's much too complicated for college football. It's much less effective. His football team was consistently a 2 win team for a long time prior to his arrival. They are not good at recruiting. They are not even the best of the bottom of the barrel of a division 2 team. And yet Josh Allen led them to back to back 8 win seasons with bowl appearances. 

The kid was asked to be 100% of the offense. He learned some really bad habits. His coach basically said they knew they didn't have the talent to win so they crossed their fingers and chunked it almost every play. They didn't run the ball. They put it all on Allen and the kid made some amazing plays to keep them in football games. 

He needs to be retrained. But even with the bad habits he's still better prepared and less of a project than Darnold or Mayfield because they are both spread QB's. I firmly believe that Rosen is the best QB in this class. I'd take him in a heartbeat. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Allen may end up the best of the bunch and dare I say has HoF potential. He's tough as hell. Most of his games are in the ice and snow in Wyoming. He fights like hell. He just has a bad habit of throwing off balance and making ill advised throws because he had to. The kids a winner pure and simple. Whoever takes him is going to have some rough going if he starts as a rookie. Lots of people are going to call me a moron. But by his third year he could be the best in this class and possibly even one of the best in the league. 

I watch him play and see a lot of Favre and Brees when he was younger. Plus the kid has really quick feet. It's not going to be difficult at all to hone his footwork.

 

[Grandy]

I do agree that using college stats isn't very reliable

If big college numbers meant much, guys like Landry Jones, and Geno Smith would be relevant.

[Villain The Foe]

This entire read baffles me. This is essentially saying that though everything went wrong for Allen including the offensive line and the WR timing etc. (Given all of the "hell no's" nothing went right that was presented in the article) we are still told that Allen is a much better quarterback than guys like Darnold simply because he played in a Pro Style offense, a pro style that was implemented in order for the coach to receive more recognition for his program by NFL programs. I also hear that Rosen is the best QB in this draft, once again because of playing in a pro style offense. If this is the case then why won't the NFL just look at QB's that came from pro style offenses every draft season? 

Rosen and Allen could end up being the best of this class, but it will be about physical ability and aptitude and not playing in a pro style offense in college. That also goes for every other QB coming out during any year. If the pro style in college was producing QB's that were so far and ahead of all of the other QB's then the 2016 QB class surely didn't show it. 

Guys like Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson are drafted in the first round and these are all spread offense guys. The first QB off the board that came from a more pro style offense was Deshone Kizer in the 2nd round, and the browns just traded him off to the Packers after one season. Now im not saying that the jury is out on Kizer or any of these new QB's. We like to talk about how awesome Watson looked in his 6 games, but he could fall off a cliff and be terrible. Or the year prior we could talk about how bad Goff looked as a rookie then he puts together a great 2nd season and leads the NFL in scoring offense. 

My point is this, the NFL themselves are more often than not picking guys who are coming from other systems outside of the Pro style offense. It comes down to aptitude. Can you naturally play the position? Can you naturally understand what the defense is doing here? How are you on the white board? Are you a great anticipation thrower? Is it natural for you to learn and absorb new concepts regarding this position? Is this skill, talent or both? <<<<Some won't understand that question but there's a big difference between skill, talent and if one has both. It's one of the big questions right now regarding Josh Rosen. These are things that are important, because if not then Guys like Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson wouldn't have rounded off the 1st round last year but it would have instead been C.J. Beathard, Joshua Dobbs, Nathan Peterman and Brad Kaaya....all QB's that played in a pro style offense but all got picked between the 3rd and 6th round of last year's draft. A couple even got starting opportunities. 

A guy that I like, Nathan Peterman came from a Pro Style offense at Pitt...looked amazing in college especially his last season where he produced a high TD/INT ratio, had a YPA over 9 and could really move an offense and understood the pro concept. He got to the NFL and what happened? 

C.J. Beathard had a great career at Iowa, he even beat out a guy for the job there who ended up transferring to Michigan because of it. Iowa ran a pro style offense and he produced. Beathard was drafted in the 3rd round by the 49'ers and was given the clear opportunity for the job. He couldn't hack it. Though he understood and came from a pro style system, it was Jimmy Garappolo who came in and single-handedly turned that offense and team around. A guy who played in a mostly shotgun formation with some west coast concepts coming out of college. 

It comes down to aptitude. and physical ability. Allen is going to get a chance not because he was in a pro-style offense, but because of his arm. Just ask Pat Mahomes, and Mahomes arm is no where near Allen's. Allen could come into the league and immediately have arguably the strongest arm in the league. Josh Allen is this year's Joe Flacco. Flacco's coach implemented pro-style concepts during his Senior year at Delaware and he had a very good season at Delaware with a couple of those games being on television. He got a lot of attention because of his....rocket arm. As a passer I could see Allen being along the lines of Joe Flacco but with much more athleticism in terms of mobility. 

With that said though, the Pro Style offense position is a bit extra. It comes down to physical talent and aptitude. If you have those two things and are a hard worker at your craft you have a good chance of making it as a QB in the pros no matter the offense you came from in college. 

[Bruce Harper]

Flacco had much better numbers in college than Allen, FWIW.


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[JetFreak89]

I was waiting to see some evidence that actually backs up this claim and all I got was a post from another message board from a guy clearly trying to justify Allen based on things no other NFL fan would know like “QB’s are expected to take certain amount of steps on certain plays”.

Bottom line is there have been a number of sources that have done advanced breakdowns of every single throw all the QB’s have made, accounted for things like OL performance, how open the WR is, if the throw is considered an NFL throw and if they faced a blitz. Guess which QB came out on top of all those lists?


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[dbatesman]

Greensleeves, thank’s

[FidelioJet]

23 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

I was waiting to see some evidence that actually backs up this claim and all I got was a post from another message board from a guy clearly trying to justify Allen based on things no other NFL fan would know like “QB’s are expected to take certain amount of steps on certain plays”.

Bottom line is there have been a number of sources that have done advanced breakdowns of every single throw all the QB’s have made, accounted for things like OL performance, how open the WR is, if the throw is considered an NFL throw and if they faced a blitz. Guess which QB came out on top of all those lists?


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well?

[FidelioJet]

This guy is going 1 or 2...I can not see the Giants passing on Allen - they'll have 2 years to works with him before he needs to play - it's an ideal situation for him.

Jets will have the choice between Rosen and Mayfield...I just hope they know what they're doing.

 

[JetFreak89]

well?

Mayfield. I didn’t even mention that everyone knows Air Raid QB’s numbers are inflated but that the QB they use as against it, Manziel (not so subtle comparison to Mayfield) didn’t crash and burn out of the league so much as he couldn’t pick up timing routes but I would imagine being an alcoholic and cokehead had more to do with it. Both things were seriously discussed even before the draft. He would have gotten another chance too shad he not bash his gf’s head and leave her roadside after an argument. Even with that considered, the guy still has teams showing up to see him at his workouts.


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[Philc1]

10 hours ago, Grandy said:

I do agree that using college stats isn't very reliable

If big college numbers meant much, guys like Landry Jones, and Geno Smith would be relevant.

Big 12 qbs with great numbers suck in the nfl.  Strange trend huh?