"Look at Where Those Picks Were Made" Mccagnan's Beautiful Mind Speaks

[Gangrene]

Mike Maccagnan unfazed by past QB misses

Posted by Josh Alper on April 2, 2018, 10:19 AM EDT

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The Jets traded up from No. 6 to No. 3 in the first round of this year’s draft with the expectation that the team is going to pick a quarterback for the third time since Mike Maccagnan became the team’s General Manager in 2015.

Maccagnan selected Bryce Petty in the fourth round of that year’s draft and took Christian Hackenberg in the second round the next year. Petty has made seven unremarkable starts over the last two years and Hackenberg hasn’t played a single snap, which leaves the Jets still in search of a quarterback and leaves Maccagnan unfazed about the prospect of picking one again.

“I’m very confident from that standpoint,” Maccagnan said at last week’s league meetings, via NJ.com. “That doesn’t faze me. It’s the college draft. Guys you’ll hit on. Guys that don’t pan out, that’s part of the process. But we feel pretty good about this year’s group and where we’re situated.”

Maccagnan added that one has to “look at where the picks were made” when considering Petty and Hackenberg’s failure to pan out. Those represent smaller misses than taking a quarterback at the top of a draft while also illustrating how much is riding on this year’s pick for both the Jets and Maccagnan since another miss could leave the next swing to someone else.

 

[T0mShane]

I think we should instead look at how we keep ending up with sh*tty GMs.

[bitonti]

Mac is all about value

he wants to take a guy who should have gone higher 

He loves to point at the mocks afterwards and crow about value - that's his favorite thing to do 

Applying it to the Jets, Allen and Darnold are two that "should go higher" 

Rosen and Mayfield, the Jets at 3 are their draft ceiling.  Rosen isn't going 1 or 2, Mayfield might not even go top 10 that's how much smoke there is on Mayfield 

I'm not saying they won't go QB.

but if they don't have a "value" prospect he could go in another direction (Chubb or Barkley) and that would be a typical Mac move.  Also keep in mind QB 3 doesn't help Mac keep his job unless he plays well and early. A Chubb or Barkley makes plays year 1. Mac is not looking at a 20 year plan he's doing everything to stay employed. 

[dbatesman]

13 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Guys you’ll hit on. Guys that don’t pan out, that’s part of the process.

He’s right. I mean, what, we’re expecting a GM to know which players will be good and which players will be bad before they get drafted? Seems unreasonable to me

[Joe W. Namath]

This is Mac's swan song.  Hes a terrible GM.  

[k-met57]

8 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Mac is all about value

he wants to take a guy who should have gone higher 

He loves to point at the mocks afterwards and crow about value - that's his favorite thing to do 

Applying it to the Jets, Allen and Darnold are two that "should go higher" 

Rosen and Mayfield, the Jets at 3 are their draft ceiling.  Rosen isn't going 1 or 2, Mayfield might not even go top 10 that's how much smoke there is on Mayfield 

I'm not saying they won't go QB.

but if they don't have a "value" prospect he could go in another direction (Chubb or Barkley) and that would be a typical Mac move.  Also keep in mind QB 3 doesn't help Mac keep his job unless he plays well and early. A Chubb or Barkley makes plays year 1. Mac is not looking at a 20 year plan he's doing everything to stay employed. 

there is a 0 chance of us not taking a QB....maybe less then 0.

[UnitedWhofans]

As a Macc supporter, even I have to call this out a bit.

Hackenberg should not have even been a thought in the second round

[Scoop24]

29 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

As a Macc supporter, even I have to call this out a bit.

Hackenberg should not have even been a thought in the second round

He reached he knew it and whole world knew it . you almost wondered if ownership forced his hand cause for a guy with such big scouting background I’ll never understand it. Bryce Petty was whatever I don’t even judge him on that . 

[bitonti]

5 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

there is a 0 chance of us not taking a QB....maybe less then 0.

everyone says this 0 chance that Jets do something other than they want in the draft  

uh you guys the Jets have made a living of doing something the fans don't want in the draft '

it's literally all that's ever happened for the last 20 years 

this year it's gonna be different? 

 

[k-met57]

Just now, bitonti said:

everyone says this 0 chance that Jets do something other than they want in the draft  

uh you guys the Jets have made a living of doing something the fans don't want in the draft '

it's literally all that's ever happened for the last 20 years 

this year it's gonna be different? 

 

you are making it sound like i am speculating...i am not. they basically said they are taking QB publicly...even if u didnt buy the argument that u do not trade up for a RB or DE. 

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

you are making it sound like i am speculating...i am not. they basically said they are taking QB publicly...even if u didnt buy the argument that u do not trade up for a RB or DE. 

4

I just don't like that 0 percent "stat"

IT's a small chance but it's way higher than 0. 

for example let's say there's a 1% chance of the Jets going anywhere but QB at 3

that means Vegas would be comfortable giving me 99-1 odds on a Bet of any Jets non-QB at 3 

Would anyone set those odds? 

That means I bet 100 dollars and Vegas have to pay 9,900. 

The real odds are probably more like 20% of a non QB at 3. It's not 100% but it's certainly not 0%

 

[Joe W. Namath]

Its definately a qb.  The only other option would be Chubb as they havent had a pass rusher in 15 years.  

[k-met57]

Just now, bitonti said:

I just don't like that 0 percent stat.

If it was even a 1% chance you'd be comfortable giving me 100-1 odds on a Bet of any Jets non-QB at 3 

Would you set those odds?  That means I bet 100 dollars and you have to pay 10,000. 

ok fine ill give you somewhere between 0% and 1% that they draft a non QB...but i think its that remote of a possibility.

[bitonti]

Just now, k-met57 said:

ok fine ill give you somewhere between 0% and 1% that they draft a non QB...but i think its that remote of a possibility.

Great I'll bet you 5 dollars the Jets take a non QB. if I lose you have to pay 500$ 

if you are not comfortable making that bet then those are not the real odds

[peebag]

34 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Mac is all about value

he wants to take a guy who should have gone higher 

He loves to point at the mocks afterwards and crow about value - that's his favorite thing to do 

Applying it to the Jets, Allen and Darnold are two that "should go higher" 

Rosen and Mayfield, the Jets at 3 are their draft ceiling.  Rosen isn't going 1 or 2, Mayfield might not even go top 10 that's how much smoke there is on Mayfield 

I'm not saying they won't go QB.

but if they don't have a "value" prospect he could go in another direction (Chubb or Barkley) and that would be a typical Mac move.  Also keep in mind QB 3 doesn't help Mac keep his job unless he plays well and early. A Chubb or Barkley makes plays year 1. Mac is not looking at a 20 year plan he's doing everything to stay employed. 

Nope.  You're wrong.  He will go QB or he will get fired.  They can't sell a McCown\Bridgewater qb package to this fan base for the upcoming season. 

 

[Gas2No99]

After two QB mistakes, Jets GM has chance to right his legacy

by

Mike Maccagnan is a cool customer. For a guy who drinks 10 cups of coffee a day (no exaggeration), he never seems jittery or rattled. It takes a lot to get a rise out of him, which is why it's noteworthy he displayed a hint of defiance last week when questioned about his sketchy history of drafting quarterbacks -- a hot-button issue in the current landscape.

The New York Jets general manager defended himself by reminding reporters that Bryce Petty was a fourth-round pick (2015) and Christian Hackenberg was a "late" second-rounder (2016). It was his way of saying, "Hey, guys, gimme a break, it's not like I blew a first-round pick." No, he didn't, but Hackenberg was such a colossal miss -- he still hasn't played in a game -- that some folks are wondering if Maccagnan will get it right on April 26.

 

Jets GM Mike Maccagnan says he isn't fazed by criticism of his past quarterback picks and is confident he'll hit in 2018. Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

"It doesn’t faze me," Maccagnan said of the criticism. "It’s the college draft. [There are] guys you'll hit on and guys who don’t pan out. That’s part of the process. We feel pretty confident with this year’s group and where we're situated."

The Jets are picking third and, barring the draft upset of the decade, they will select a quarterback from the group of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen. It'll be a franchise-altering decision for the Jets and a legacy-defining choice for Maccagnan, a college economics major (@bitonti 's "Value" argument)-turned-scout who found the big chair in 2015. He will attempt to solve The Quarterback Riddle, which has flummoxed this star-crossed franchise for decades.

They've tried everything.

They've rummaged through the recycle bin (Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick), they've tried their luck in the second round (Hackenberg and Geno Smith) and they've rented a hired gun (Brett Favre). Their last first-round pick was Mark Sanchez in 2009, and that was working for a couple of years -- until it wasn't.

After failing to secure the only quick fix in the 2018 market -- Kirk Cousins said no -- Maccagnan went back to his days as an economics student. He took some of his best assets (three second-round picks, including one in 2019) and sold them off for a chance to score with a potential high-yield investment -- easily the boldest move of his tenure.

The blockbuster trade with the Indianapolis Colts, which allowed the Jets to climb three spots in the draft order, carries considerable risk. It's an all-in move that will leave Maccagnan out of a job in a couple of years if it backfires.

"I don’t like necessarily giving up the picks, per se, to move up," said Maccagnan, adding he did it because it's a chance to "potentially help yourself in the bigger scheme of things."

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. called it "a hefty price to pay," saying the Jets essentially gave up three potential starters -- the draft picks that went to the Colts -- to select perhaps the third-best quarterback. In that context, yeah, it doesn't look like a sound move, but no one will remember the compensation if the quarterback develops into a long-term solution.

It's a calculated gamble, but you know what? You can't sit back, passively, and wait for the next Tom Brady in the sixth round. You can't win a Lombardi Trophy by playing it by the book. To quote Tom Cruise in "Risky Business," sometimes you just have to say ... well, you know ("What the Füçk" is the quote).

"We do think there are some very good quarterback prospects in this class," Maccagnan said. "They all have different strengths and maybe some different areas of concern or weakness. That’s one of the reasons why I've been to all these pro days, because there are some real viable guys there that you think may be good additions if they fall to us in the right spot."

The question is, can Maccagnan learn from his past quarterback mistakes?

 

With Hackenberg, Maccagnan relied too much on projection. The GM saw the big arm and projected what Hackenberg could be, not what he was -- an inaccurate passer with questionable instincts.

Will that effect the way he evaluates Allen, who has a tremendous amount of raw, physical talent but is considered boom or bust?

With Petty, Maccagnan bet on a player from a spread system, figuring he'd need a year or two to make the transition to a pro-style offense. It hasn't happened for Petty, who is 1-6 as a starter.

Will Maccagnan downgrade Mayfield because he played in a spread at Oklahoma?

Hey, no one said this will be an easy decision. History says two of the top four quarterbacks will be NFL disappointments. Maccagnan put himself in the batter's box and gets another swing. Maybe the third time will be the charm.

[jeremy2020]

Mac's gonna save Woody a bunch of money by firing all of the scouting staff because ya know, whether a guy is any good is just a thing that happens or it doesn't. Training staff can go too.

[Pac]

Two things are true.

- Macc gets way too much criticism for not drafting a franchise QB considering there haven't been any available when we've drafted.

- Macc better get this pick right or he's gone in 2 years.

[jetstream23]

Is the author of the article really named Josh?  Something is afoot. 

[Fantasy Island]

The NFL is a copy cat league.  It could be that Mac looks at Jacksonville's success last year and drafts Saquon Barkley.  

[jetstream23]

34 minutes ago, bitonti said:

everyone says this 0 chance that Jets do something other than they want in the draft  

uh you guys the Jets have made a living of doing something the fans don't want in the draft '

it's literally all that's ever happened for the last 20 years 

this year it's gonna be different? 

 

There's a 0% chance any NFL team would use both it's 1st and 2nd round picks on a non-premium position like Safety.

[slats]

9 minutes ago, Pac said:

Two things are true.

- Macc gets way too much criticism for not drafting a franchise QB considering there haven't been any available when we've drafted.

- Macc better get this pick right or he's gone in 2 years.

 

It's still early, but Mahomes and Watson last year? 

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

The NFL is a copy cat league.  It could be that Mac looks at Jacksonville's success last year and drafts Saquon Barkley.  

to take this metaphor further he doesn't have time to take a Blake Bortles and wait 3 full years before he gets over 60% percentage

[joewilly12]

20 minutes ago, Pac said:

Macc gets way too much criticism for not drafting a franchise QB considering there haven't been any available when we've drafted.

But there have been a few available that he past on 10x better than any QB on our current roster. 

[dbatesman]

23 minutes ago, Pac said:

- Macc better get this pick right or he's gone in 2 years.

Seems rash. Gotta give him a chance to execute Phase MCCCXXVII of the rebuild

[FidelioJet]

50 minutes ago, bitonti said:

everyone says this 0 chance that Jets do something other than they want in the draft  

uh you guys the Jets have made a living of doing something the fans don't want in the draft '

it's literally all that's ever happened for the last 20 years 

this year it's gonna be different? 

 

Yes, this year is different.  the Jets are taking a QB at 3 or higher.  Which one no one knows ---- but they're definitely taking a QB.

[whodeawhodat]

37 minutes ago, peebag said:

Nope.  You're wrong.  He will go QB or he will get fired.  They can't sell a McCown\Bridgewater qb package to this fan base for the upcoming season. 

 

hold my coffee

[jetstream23]

I don't ding Macc for the Petty pick.  Decent value there in Round 4 and the guy has played some NFL games.  While he certainly doesn't look like a starter and questions linger about whether he's a QB2 or QB3, the pick wasn't a colossal mistake.  It was a calculated risk that didn't work out.

Hackenberg, on the other hand, was one of those swings and misses where the batter kinda stumbles out of the batter's box, off balance after whiffing.  While not a 1st round pick that was a valuable 2nd rounder.  Teams are expected to find good starters in Round 2.  Had the Jets picked the best available  Safety, OG, or Center they would have alleviated positional issues in future years.  To think about it consequentially, let's say the Jets used the Hack pick to take a Safety, they could have conceivably still taken Jamal Adams last year and then used the 2nd rounder on a guy like RB Dalvin Cook or the heir-apparent to Nick Mangold at Center with a guy like Pat Elflein.

In my book I give Macc a pass on Petty but the Hack pick was a swing for the fences and an ugly miss.  One thing I will say, I'm glad he continues to pick QBs and acquire them through FA.....even if I expected a better hit rate.  He keeps trying until he finds one.

[FidelioJet]

He's right, they weren't premium positions when they drafted him and the college draft is a a crap shoot...especially with 2nd round QB's. 

This has been a very solid off-season - and he's doing a very nice job executing the rebuild over the past two years.

[bitonti]

Just now, FidelioJet said:

Yes, this year is different.  the Jets are taking a QB at 3 or higher.  Which one no one knows ---- but they're definitely taking a QB.

Jets fan in 1995: "This year is different, they are definitely taking Warren Sapp." 

[Jetscreen]

Mac is not naïve enough to think time isn't running out on him. He MUST get a QB or else he gets fired. It's an unwritten paper bull, but a bull nonetheless. So really this is what I call feeding Jets fans a line of crap...

[JohnnyLV]

52 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I just don't like that 0 percent "stat"

IT's a small chance but it's way higher than 0. 

for example let's say there's a 1% chance of the Jets going anywhere but QB at 3

that means Vegas would be comfortable giving me 99-1 odds on a Bet of any Jets non-QB at 3 

Would anyone set those odds? 

That means I bet 100 dollars and Vegas have to pay 9,900. 

The real odds are probably more like 20% of a non QB at 3. It's not 100% but it's certainly not 0%

 

Odds are literally zero. I do believe Bowles is campaigning for Chubb or Barkley but the reality is that there is like a 90% chance we are taking Mayfield, and if not him, Rosen

[Pac]

25 minutes ago, slats said:

It's still early, but Mahomes and Watson last year? 

in 3 years we can decide if Adams + whichever QB we get will be better than Mahomes or Watson.

I think it will be.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Pac said:

in 3 years we can decide if Adams + whichever QB we get will be better than Mahomes or Watson.

I think it will be.

You have a better chance of Hackenberg winning league MVP within three years. 

[jetsfansince7]

This is Mac's swan song.  Hes a terrible GM.  

Tell me what moves he should have made that panned out for other teams. And Deshaun Watson doesn’t count because he did t contribute to the Texans season.


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