Ball placement charts

[hmhertz]

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/1/17185862/nfl-draft-qb-ball-placement-analysis

[Patriot Killa]

Post actual article.

[Obrien2Toon]

Wow, Lauletta 

[20andOut]

Chart fits with alot of what has been put out there. Such as Mayfields accuracy lines up with his comp %. Allen accuracy looks awful. Rosen's lack of mobility. His numbers go from great to terrible once forced to move.

[Villain The Foe]

2018 NFL Draft: Quarterback ball placement analysis

By Melancer46 on Apr 1, 2018, 11:05am EDT 98 

 

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

 

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Editor's note: This post has been bumped from the fanpost section and slightly edited for publication on our homepage. - MRW

NDT Scouting recently published a report in which they broke down every pass they could find for the top 13 QB prospects available in the 2018 NFL Draft. They sliced and diced it in a ridiculous number of ways to provide context to their passing numbers. One of the major breakthroughs of it is the distinction between throwing a catchable pass and a well-placed pass. The tables below summarize the findings regarding ball-placement.

Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson are all featured as are Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk, Kurt Benkert, Brandon Silvers, Mike White, Chase Litton, and Logan Woodside.

Tables are color-coded to quickly distinguish how good the prospect is relative to his peers. I've also provided a second table that shows their rank rather than their ball-placement percentage to make it even easier. Most of the categories that I chose to focus on should make sense, but a couple of the less clear ones:

 

• Clean = basically the QB got his feet set and made a throw with his normal mechanics
• Move = the QB threw it on the move
• Tight Window = the defense was tight enough that the QB had to adjust the ball-placement to get it around/through the defense.

The main takeaways for me:

• Holy Lauletta (though he has by far the least amount of film compared to the others)
• Mayfield and Rosen are also very good, as expected
• Based on these numbers, Lamar Jackson is one of the most accurate QBs in the draft but REALLY struggles on those screen passes/passes to the flats.
• Rudolph is terribly average.

[Mike135]

Allen has the most red.  

Red is good right?

[Villain The Foe]

9 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Allen has the most red.  

Red is good right?

Dont worry about that. Did you see him throw at the Senior Bowl?

[Patriot Killa]

1 minute ago, Mike135 said:

Allen has the most red.  

Red is good right?

Lol

[Larz]

I try for down the middle. 

[kdels62]

Ridiculous I read in another thread that Mayfield is very similar to Mark Sanchez.

[rangerous]

it seems to me this is where the strength of scedule and competition need to be factored in.  not that lauletta is bad but he's playing in a lower level conference.  also how do the receivers stack up? good receivers will help make the qb's look better.

[flgreen]

29 minutes ago, rangerous said:

it seems to me this is where the strength of scedule and competition need to be factored in.  not that lauletta is bad but he's playing in a lower level conference.  also how do the receivers stack up? good receivers will help make the qb's look better.

Regardless, 7 out of 8 1's is pretty excellent.  He's starting to look like a nice luxury pick for a good team in the late 1st.  If he gets there

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Mike135 said:

Allen has the most red.  

Red is good right?

You're not drafting Allen for his college stats - you guys need to get past that - 

If you were just going to by college stats it would be the first QB off the board - and Allen would be undraftable -

But Allen's going to go 1 or 2 - while Mayfield will likely go 5 or lower.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Dont worry about that. Did you see him throw at the Senior Bowl?

Don't worry about it. He's going 1. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, bitonti said:

Don't worry about it. He's going 1. 

You really think he's gonna go before darnold and Rosen?  

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, bitonti said:

Don't worry about it. He's going 1. 

If that's a fact then it sounds like we could possibly be dodging a bullet. I'd rather take my chances with Rosen/Mayfield. 

[Mike135]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You're not drafting Allen for his college stats - you guys need to get past that - 

If you were just going to by college stats it would be the first QB off the board - and Allen would be undraftable -

But Allen's going to go 1 or 2 - while Mayfield will likely go 5 or lower.

No worries.  I think red means the ball was thrown hard anyways.

[bitonti]

 

10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

You really think he's gonna go before darnold and Rosen?  

Peter King wrote an article predicting it yesterday (everyone made fun of it "a friend of Dorsey)  

 

“This friend of Cleveland GM John Dorsey believes he’ll go Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen over Sam Darnold with the first overall pick, keep the fourth pick, and take Penn State running back Saquon Barkley,”
 

 

Mel Kiper has predicted it since the beginning. 

They are not alone it appears to be firming up into a real thing

[Augustiniak]

Just now, bitonti said:

 

Peter King wrote an article predicting it yesterday (everyone made fun of it "a friend of Dorsey)  

Mel Kiper has predicted it since the beginning. 

They are not alone it appears to be firming up into a real thing

Well if cleveland takes allen and the giants take darnold we're getting Rosen and that's that.  There is no way we are taking mayfield over Rosen.

[varjet]

Lauletta will not be there in the 3rd round.  It has been proposed that the Jets draft Barkley in the first and Lauletta in the third.  

That would actually be a good idea, if they could pull it off.  Lauletta will go no later than pick 40.  

[T0mShane]

28 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

No worries.  I think red means the ball was thrown hard anyways.

They should put a little chili pepper emoji next to all of Allen’s stats because, while underwhelming, they’re actually very spicy.

[T0mShane]

20 minutes ago, varjet said:

Lauletta will not be there in the 3rd round.  It has been proposed that the Jets draft Barkley in the first and Lauletta in the third.  

That would actually be a good idea, if they could pull it off.  Lauletta will go no later than pick 40.  

Proposed by which psychopath with a death wish? 

[k-met57]

38 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Don't worry about it. He's going 1. 

if the browns pick a QB 

[rangerous]

12 hours ago, flgreen said:

Regardless, 7 out of 8 1's is pretty excellent.  He's starting to look like a nice luxury pick for a good team in the late 1st.  If he gets there

i would say if the jets weren't planning on a qb at 3 or 6 then drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd round would've made a whole lotta sense. and if he dropped lower, it might even make sense in spite of drafting a guy at 3.

[Mike135]

Question for the QB and college ball gurus here.

According to this, Rosen's weakness is throwing on the run.  Now maybe I'm trying to look at this through green tinted glasses here, but could this be a product of his pocket presence?

Seems to me Rosen is like a junior Rodgers, in that he feels pressure and shifts a step or two instead of overreacting and leaving the pocket when possible/appropriate.

So when Rosen actually leaves the pocket, it's for good reason.  The WRs aren't open and the pass rushers are really breathing down his neck.  So obviously the numbers will be lower.

And maybe because he is such a good pocket passer, he didn't have nearly as many clean rollout plays called for him that could also skew the numbers?

 

[bla bla bla]

17 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Question for the QB and college ball gurus here.

According to this, Rosen's weakness is throwing on the run.  Now maybe I'm trying to look at this through green tinted glasses here, but could this be a product of his pocket presence?

Seems to me Rosen is like a junior Rodgers, in that he feels pressure and shifts a step or two instead of overreacting and leaving the pocket when possible/appropriate.

So when Rosen actually leaves the pocket, it's for good reason.  The WRs aren't open and the pass rushers are really breathing down his neck.  So obviously the numbers will be lower.

And maybe because he is such a good pocket passer, he didn't have nearly as many clean rollout plays called for him that could also skew the numbers?

That is potentially a great point. I'd have to go back and watch the tape but points like this are why stats always need to have context with them.

[flgreen]

4 hours ago, rangerous said:

i would say if the jets weren't planning on a qb at 3 or 6 then drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd round would've made a whole lotta sense. and if he dropped lower, it might even make sense in spite of drafting a guy at 3.

Very unlikely at this point that he is there in the 3rd, but if he was I wouldn't have a problem taking him in the 3rd, even if they took Mayfield/Rosen at 3.  

If he has a good showing in camp he probably would have some excellent trade value at the least.  

[flgreen]

Just one more comment on Lauletta.  IMO if he even had Chad Pennington's original arm, he'd be the first pick in the draft.  He doesn't.

  He just doesn't have an NFL arm, and can't make all the throws.  That doesn't mean he won't be an effective NFL QB.  He's effectively played in the pistol, shotgun, and from under center.  His family football history goes back 3 generations.  Guy is extremely football smart, VERY accurate, and is a strong leader.  

Problem is if he throws more then 20 yards they look like punts 

[joewilly12]

Boxers or Briefs? 

[SouthernJet]

The Title of this thread had all the Mods excited

[legler82]

This QB draft class discussions are great.  There's going to be  A LOT of people looking really stupid in a couple of years.

[Augustiniak]

interestingly, greg cosell loves rosen and mayfield, is less certain on darnold as he needs to work on fundamentals and is not impressed with josh allen's ball placement.  couple this with the jets rumored to like rosen and mayfield and those two guys as the best fits with bates' offense and yeah, i think we're getting rosen or mayfield, and you know, maybe not in that order.

[rangerous]

2 hours ago, flgreen said:

Very unlikely at this point that he is there at 3, but if he was I wouldn't have a problem taking him in the 3rd, even if they took Mayfield/Rosen at 3.  

If he has a good showing in camp he probably would have some excellent trade value at the least.  

yep.  people should be reminded that the jets took todd in the first round of 76 (?) and then drafted matt robinson a couple of seasons later.  Robinson beat out todd and might have been one of the better jets qb's if he didn't break his thumb.

[#27TheDominator]

10 minutes ago, rangerous said:

yep.  people should be reminded that the jets took todd in the first round of 76 (?) and then drafted matt robinson a couple of seasons later.  Robinson beat out todd and might have been one of the better jets qb's if he didn't break his thumb.

Matt Robinson?  I loved that guy as a kid, but he had a long way to go to be in the conversation with even McCown and Fitzpatrick as all-time Jets QB. 45% completions, 15TD/26INT. Plus, IIRC, he wasn't very mobile and fumbled a bunch.  He was drafted so late the round no longer exists (9th)

[rangerous]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Matt Robinson?  I loved that guy as a kid, but he had a long way to go to be in the conversation with even McCown and Fitzpatrick as all-time Jets QB. 45% completions, 15TD/26INT. Plus, IIRC, he wasn't very mobile and fumbled a bunch.  He was drafted so late the round no longer exists (9th)

maybe, but he was also one of the jet draft success stories because he was traded to denver for a fairly high pick.  certainly a higher one than his draft position.  and somehow he took the starting job away from todd with michaels as hc.