"The draft is an educated crapshoot" - Todd Bowles (ESPN, Rich Cimini article)

[jetstream23]

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/75499/jets-star-crossed-draft-history-a-bad-omen-as-no-3-pick-draws-near

 

Jets' star-crossed draft history a bad omen as No. 3 pick draws near

This was January, 1990. Dick Steinberg, just hired to resurrect the New York Jets, was in Mobile, Alabama, to scout the Senior Bowl. He owned the No. 2 pick in the draft, and he had just watched his targeted player -- running back Blair Thomas -- win MVP honors with a brilliant performance.

"Even my grandmother could tell you he was the best player on the field," the new general manager told me in the press box that day.

Grandma wouldn't have made it as a draftnik.

Thomas never came close to reaching expectations, and three players picked after him in the first round -- Cortez Kennedy, Junior Seau and Emmitt Smith -- went to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Moral of the story: In the NFL draft, there's no such thing as a sure thing.

This applies to the current Jets, who have the No. 3 pick in the upcoming draft. This will be their fifth top-three pick in the common draft era (since 1967), and their tortured fan base knows there's no guarantee of a happily-ever-after ending.

"The draft is an educated crapshoot," coach Todd Bowles said last week.

Truer words never have been spoken of the NFL. Sometimes all the pre-draft homework pays off. Sometimes you get unlucky. Sometimes you just make dumb decisions.

The Jets have experienced it all.

In 1980, the Jets traded two first-round picks (13th and 20th) to the San Francisco 49ers, enabling them to move up to No. 2 overall. They surprised everybody by taking Texas wide receiver Johnny "Lam" Jones, an Olympic sprinter who played in a wishbone offense and never caught more than 36 passes in a season for the Longhorns. Their vision was to pair him with fellow receiver Wesley Walker, another blazer, giving them the Greatest Show on Grass. Or so they imagined.

Jones was a kindhearted person who tried hard, but he suffered from social anxiety and melted in the New York spotlight. He got caught up in alcohol and drugs, and his career fizzled after a few mediocre years.

"I know how they remember me in New York: I'm the guy they blew the draft pick on," Jones told me in 2005. "That's OK. I didn't live up to their expectations, but I didn't live up to my own expectations, either."

The following year, the Jets were in virtually the same position, picking third. This time, they didn't blow it. They picked UCLA running back Freeman McNeil, who would become the leading rusher in franchise history (until Curtis Martin passed him). The Jets liked McNeil so much that he was higher on their draft board than running back George Rogers, according to scouting sources. Rogers went No. 1 overall to the New Orleans Saints.

There was no denying McNeil's talent, but there's a "what-might-have-been" vibe to the '81 draft. The reason is because Lawrence Taylor was picked one spot ahead of them, by the New York Giants. The Jets came tantalizingly close to arguably the greatest defensive player in history, who would've joined an already established New York Sack Exchange. Five picks after McNeil, another all-time great -- safety Ronnie Lott -- was picked by the 49ers.

If L.T. had been available, the Jets would've taken him over McNeil, a former team scout recalled. Imagine L.T. on the same defensive front as Mark Gastineau and Joe Klecko.

Typical Jets. Even when they get it right, they leave you wanting more.

In 1996, they had their choice of every player. Picking first for the first time since 1965, when they chose some guy named Joe Namath in the AFL draft, the Jets selected wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. He was the perfect blend of talent and charisma, something the franchise desperately needed.

Johnson wanted New York as much as New York wanted him. Two weeks before the draft, held at Radio City Music Hall, he threw himself a party at a popular sports restaurant in Times Square. The media were invited, a terrific PR move by Team Keyshawn. Before the party, up in his Manhattan hotel suite, Johnson told me how he could be a transformative player for the moribund Jets.

After weeks of hype, the fans and media would've revolted if the Jets didn't pick Johnson. They did, and he became a Pro Bowl wide receiver by his third season. In retrospect, there were better players in the '96 draft, which produced five Hall of Famers, including receivers Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens.

Still, the Jets were happy with their decision, but soon the relationship with Johnson turned sour. He wanted a big contract extension, and the Jets refused to tear up his rookie deal, so they traded him for a pair of first-round picks in 2000. He was Odell Beckham Jr., sans the off-the-field antics. To say the divorce was bitter would be an understatement.

With the Jets, it's always something. Maybe this time they will find their forever star.

[jetstream23]

Doh! I didn't see this posted on the board but it's there.  Please merge or delete....although I love the Bowles quote!

I'm going to start talking about the 2018 Educated Crapshoot taking place on April 26th!  Anybody care to post a Mock Educated Crapshoot? lol

[TuscanyTile2]

Still annoys me how the year we picked #1 overall was the year Keyshawn was the consensus guy (and I almost positive I remember Francesa saying he was the guy we needed because we needed a spark).  A freaking WR as the #1 overall pick?!  Admittedly it wasn't quite as crazy a thing back then but it still was disappointing.  

It's also frustrating how we picked #1 2x in a row and Peyton stayed in school both times (after his Soph/Jr seasons).  We also wanted Brett Favre but missed out on him by 1 pick.  And, of course, we missed LT by 1 pick.  And supposedly one of our scouts badly wanted Tom Brady but Parcells said no because we already drafted Chad in the 1st round that year.

If we had Peyton, Favre, Brady and LT we probably would've won at least a couple of Superbowls.  Instead we're the misery franchise.  

[slimjasi]

19 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Still annoys me how the year we picked #1 overall was the year Keyshawn was the consensus guy (and I almost positive I remember Francesa saying he was the guy we needed because we needed a spark).  A freaking WR as the #1 overall pick?!  Admittedly it wasn't quite as crazy a thing back then but it still was disappointing.  

It's also frustrating how we picked #1 2x in a row and Peyton stayed in school both times (after his Soph/Jr seasons).  We also wanted Brett Favre but missed out on him by 1 pick.  And, of course, we missed LT by 1 pick.  And supposedly one of our scouts badly wanted Tom Brady but Parcells said no because we already drafted Chad in the 1st round that year.

If we had Peyton, Favre, Brady and LT we probably would've won at least a couple of Superbowls.  Instead we're the misery franchise.  

Yeah, sucks.

What's amazing is that there were legitimately no franchise QBs available in either 96 or 97. That's incredibly bad luck, if you think about it. 

Keyshawn was definitely not worth the number 1 pick, but at least he was a very good player. Although, interestingly, he was probably the third best receiver in his draft (Behind Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison). 

[chirorob]

42 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Still annoys me how the year we picked #1 overall was the year Keyshawn was the consensus guy (and I almost positive I remember Francesa saying he was the guy we needed because we needed a spark).  A freaking WR as the #1 overall pick?!  Admittedly it wasn't quite as crazy a thing back then but it still was disappointing.  

It's also frustrating how we picked #1 2x in a row and Peyton stayed in school both times (after his Soph/Jr seasons).  We also wanted Brett Favre but missed out on him by 1 pick.  And, of course, we missed LT by 1 pick.  And supposedly one of our scouts badly wanted Tom Brady but Parcells said no because we already drafted Chad in the 1st round that year.

If we had Peyton, Favre, Brady and LT we probably would've won at least a couple of Superbowls.  Instead we're the misery franchise.  

Wasn't really a great draft.   Probably the best player at the top was Ogden, but there's no way Parcells could have taken Ogden #1 overall at the time.

 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

traded two first round picks for the bowling ball with knives who had no cartilage in his knees - Suggs, Polamalu drafted after him

[Bugg]

Only morons who have never understood probability in any game like craps thinks they're saying something brilliant and profound. In fact while every roll is a random outcome, over time the outcomes are exactly predictable. More proof Bowles is an imbecile.