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Doggin94it

Josh Allen Film Review

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It's gonna be a tough call. Allen's got so much potential but so did a lot of kids in years past. It's a crucial call  , I just hope Macc gets it right.

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I am glad I am not making this pick. There are issues with each one of these four - but also a lot of potential. These four QBs will make or break a few careers.


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3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Play 5 (Q2, 15:00) (2d/10).  This is a terrible INT.  Allen gets pressure when his RG is beat cleanly off the snap, but Allen stared down the deep ball on his right, bringing over the S, who makes the pick, and short-arms the throw to an open WR who had beaten his CB.  If he’s going to throw that ball, he has to step into the throw and pay the price for it; he also had an open WR short that he passed up (or never saw).  Instead, the throw sails and is picked off.

 

Except for the pressure part (Boise St showed blitz pre-snap but only rushed 4 yet still got pressure on Allen), almost everything else you wrote about the INT is incorrect.  Let's break it down.

-"...but Allen stared down the deep ball on his right"

He pump faked to the right first then threw the ball to the seam route.  You can't stare down a receiver if you are first pump faking to someone else.

-"...bringing over the S"

The safety in question was lined up over the slot WR on Allen's left pre-snap.  Immediately, after the ball was snapped he bailed to the middle of the field and the weak side LB dropped to cover his man.  This means this was a designed defensive call.

-"...short-arms the throw to an open WR who had beaten his CB.  If he's going to throw that ball, he has to step into the throw and pay the price for it"

It was the TE (#81 Austin Fort) NOT WR who had beaten the other S NOT a CB.  Allen was thinking TD on that play that is why he did not step into the throw but instead lofted it trying to "lead" the WR.  That was actually an example of him throwing with some "anticipation", a trait many say he lacks.  He "anticipated" zero coverage (no safety in the middle of the field) because that was the look he got pre-snap.  

-"...he also had an open WR short that he passed up (or never saw)"

Are you talking about the WR to the far right that he pump faked to first?

Not trying to be a d*ck, but if you are going analyze film you have to know what you are looking at.  It was more a perfect storm of a brilliant defensive play call/disguise combined with Allen predetermining what he was going to do post-snap based on what he saw pre-snap.  If Boise St stayed in that look that would have been the perfect read, right throw and a TD.  They fooled and ultimately baited Allen into that INT.  I've seen the best NFL QBs get caught on a great defensive call.  The question is did he learn from it.  Note this was the same INT Mayock pop quizzed him on at his pro-day to test his play recall and describe what he saw pre and post snap.  Scouts see all the little nuances; fans just see "terrible INT".

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1 hour ago, legler82 said:

Not trying to be a d*ck, but if you are going analyze film you have to know what you are looking at.  It was more a perfect storm of a brilliant defensive play call/disguise combined with Allen predetermining what he was going to do post-snap based on what he saw pre-snap.  If Boise St stayed in that look that would have been the perfect read, right throw and a TD.  They fooled and ultimately baited Allen into that INT.  I've seen the best NFL QBs get caught on a great defensive call.  The question is did he learn from it.  Note this was the same INT Mayock pop quizzed him on at his pro-day to test his play recall and describe what he saw pre and post snap.  Scouts see all the little nuances; fans just see "terrible INT".

And you think when he gets into the Pros that there won’t be more brilliant defensive play calling/disguises only executed with faster, bigger and smarter players to boot?

Allen will have to competley re-adjust his mental game and his mental game speed.(how fast he can process what he knows.) Add that with the fact he will just now be learning 70% of this..it’s going to have his head spinning when trying to apply it in-game... which really isn’t a risk this regime can take if they want to keep their jobs. Someone who you have to mentally develop for a while longer isn’t a top 3 player to me and while his potential is strikingly interesting and feeds my curiosity endlessly...if Maccagnan is smart he sees the #3 pick has someone who needs to be able to start today. 

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4 hours ago, legler82 said:

Except for the pressure part (Boise St showed blitz pre-snap but only rushed 4 yet still got pressure on Allen), almost everything else you wrote about the INT is incorrect.  Let's break it down.

-"...but Allen stared down the deep ball on his right"

He pump faked to the right first then threw the ball to the seam route.  You can't stare down a receiver if you are first pump faking to someone else.

-"...bringing over the S"

The safety in question was lined up over the slot WR on Allen's left pre-snap.  Immediately, after the ball was snapped he bailed to the middle of the field and the weak side LB dropped to cover his man.  This means this was a designed defensive call.

-"...short-arms the throw to an open WR who had beaten his CB.  If he's going to throw that ball, he has to step into the throw and pay the price for it"

It was the TE (#81 Austin Fort) NOT WR who had beaten the other S NOT a CB.  Allen was thinking TD on that play that is why he did not step into the throw but instead lofted it trying to "lead" the WR.  That was actually an example of him throwing with some "anticipation", a trait many say he lacks.  He "anticipated" zero coverage (no safety in the middle of the field) because that was the look he got pre-snap.  

-"...he also had an open WR short that he passed up (or never saw)"

Are you talking about the WR to the far right that he pump faked to first?

Not trying to be a d*ck, but if you are going analyze film you have to know what you are looking at.  It was more a perfect storm of a brilliant defensive play call/disguise combined with Allen predetermining what he was going to do post-snap based on what he saw pre-snap.  If Boise St stayed in that look that would have been the perfect read, right throw and a TD.  They fooled and ultimately baited Allen into that INT.  I've seen the best NFL QBs get caught on a great defensive call.  The question is did he learn from it.  Note this was the same INT Mayock pop quizzed him on at his pro-day to test his play recall and describe what he saw pre and post snap.  Scouts see all the little nuances; fans just see "terrible INT".

Sorry, but you're wrong on most of this here.  It was a pump-and-go to the seam route; he didn't pump to the short WR on the far right, he pumped to the TE running the seam route  (I wasn't paying attention to the numbers there; if it was a TE/S combo, not a WR/CB, it really doesn't matter).  I'm not sure what you were looking at to think that it was a pump to the WR on the short right; his head and body aren't opened up in that direction and a pump fake to the flat on a deep throw would have absolutely no effect on the coverage of the intended target; the defender is running down the field with his man and no help defender that deep is biting on a pump to the flat anyway, so in addition to being wrong as a matter of where Allen was looking, you're suggesting a play design that makes absolutely no football sense.

The safety bailed to the middle of the field - and then booked it over to the route combo on the right that Allen was staring down, because he didn't have to worry about the slot to the left beating the LB with Allen staring down the right.  The part of the call that was design was getting a safety playing deep center field.  Allen leading that deep center fielder directly to the INT was all Allen.

"Allen was thinking TD on that play is why he did not step into the throw but instead lofted it trying to "lead" the WR." First, it was a TE, not a WR, which you think is important, so try to keep it consistent.  Second, do you know how QB mechanics work? "I'm trying to lead my WR so I'm not going to step into the throw" is. not. a. thing.  QBs need to be stepping into every throw; that's how they maintain accuracy and control; lofting, leading, or drilling a pass is all about arm angle and release point, not bad footwork.

Plus, that throw wasn't "lofted" - it was a shallow parabola, almost on a line, that the WR (sorry, TE) had no chance to make a play on because it was so far ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but it's possible to lead a WR (or even a TE) without throwing a "lofted" pass, and "lofting" a ball to an open WR (or TE) breaking deep is an especially bad idea when the player has 3 steps on his CB (or S) and there's a safety playing the middle of the field. 

Which I guess you'll tell me Allen didn't notice, but that's exactly the problem, because if he wasn't staring down the route he'd have noticed the safety bailing off the slot rather than carrying his man.  Trusting your pre-snap read is good.  Forgetting that defenses can change looks post-snap and not seeing the field is not.  "Predetermining what you're going to do post-snap based on what you saw pre-snap" is very much not a good thing. 

Sorry.  Not trying to be a d*ck, but if you're going to defend bad QB play, it helps to know what good QB play requires.

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8 hours ago, David Harris said:

I hope Rosen is just there so we don’t have to take OR pass on this kid.

 

This is how I feel about these top guys WE DONT pick, I want none of them in the AFC east, hopefully the AFC,lol. I don't want to end up with the average guy & watch us get beat by the guy WE COULD HAVE HAD! Ugh, this draft can't come fast enough & be over.

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Good stuff. In MMQB, Gil Brandt has Allen ranked 4th (which I haven’t seen much of recently), and Orlovsky makes an interesting point about Allen throwing it “at” receivers in these workouts, suggesting that his supposedly improved accuracy isn’t anything to get excited about because that’s not how it works in actual games—you’re throwing to spots, with anticipation, not at the receiver necessarily 

 

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4 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

And you think when he gets into the Pros that there won’t be more brilliant defensive play calling/disguises only executed with faster, bigger and smarter players to boot?

Allen will have to competley re-adjust his mental game and his mental game speed.(how fast he can process what he knows.) Add that with the fact he will just now be learning 70% of this..it’s going to have his head spinning when trying to apply it in-game... which really isn’t a risk this regime can take if they want to keep their jobs. Someone who you have to mentally develop for a while longer isn’t a top 3 player to me and while his potential is strikingly interesting and feeds my curiosity endlessly...if Maccagnan is smart he sees the #3 pick has someone who needs to be able to start today. 

I don't think anything; for the moment I was just properly breaking down the play for the record.

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6 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

And you think when he gets into the Pros that there won’t be more brilliant defensive play calling/disguises only executed with faster, bigger and smarter players to boot?

Allen will have to competley re-adjust his mental game and his mental game speed.(how fast he can process what he knows.) Add that with the fact he will just now be learning 70% of this..it’s going to have his head spinning when trying to apply it in-game... which really isn’t a risk this regime can take if they want to keep their jobs. Someone who you have to mentally develop for a while longer isn’t a top 3 player to me and while his potential is strikingly interesting and feeds my curiosity endlessly...if Maccagnan is smart he sees the #3 pick has someone who needs to be able to start today. 

All of these QB's heads will be spinning, and none of them will be pressured into playing right away from the Jets, so the point in some regards is moot.

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3 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

All of these QB's heads will be spinning, and none of them will be pressured into playing right away from the Jets, so the point in some regards is moot.

Wrong though. Josh Rosen’s skills will transcend to the pro level a lot smoother than any QB this year, last year or the year before. 

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1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

Wrong though. Josh Rosen’s skills will transcend to the pro level a lot smoother than any QB this year, last year or the year before. 

But who cares if it takes one QB 3 months longer to adapt, they won't be playing with Bowles as coach until what week 12 at minimum.

So Rosen will be more qualified to carry the clipboard, it just doesn't matter.

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Only watched the first half, because it took a ton of time I don't have.  Before anyone asks, I had no idea what Allen's play against Boise St. was before watching the film; it was just the first game that came up.
I'd have serious concerns about Allen if this film is representative.  He displayed absolutely no anticipation, a tendency to stare down WRs, and often fell away from throws.  That stuff will not get it done in the NFL, and he's firmly 4th out of the 4 big QB names, in my (unschooled) eyes.
At the same time, you can absolutely see why scouts are smitten with his potential.  He moves through progressions at least some of the time, has incredible tools, and that play at the end of the half was absolutely ridiculous - and, for him, repeatable.  So while I hope he's not the pick, I won't be rioting if he is.

The guy is going to be mediocre pro. He is so athletic that his highlight tapes look awesome. The problem is that those jaw-dropping plays are too few and far between. This becomes apparent when you watch the full games. With Mayfield, it’s the opposite. The more full games you watch the more apparent it becomes how consistent and accurate he is.


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28 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

But who cares if it takes one QB 3 months longer to adapt, they won't be playing with Bowles as coach until what week 12 at minimum.

So Rosen will be more qualified to carry the clipboard, it just doesn't matter.

Nah, now that’s just kinda cartoonish to assume. Bowles may actually favor Vets, but Hack and Petty clearly didn’t earn the starting spot. They both are garbage and both weren’t top 3 picks to boot. 

Rosen being as good as he is added to the fact he would be a a top 3 pick...There is no doubt in my mind that he will have an opportunity to win that job and will do a lot better than Hackenberg or Petty’s sorry asses. Josh was named the starter going into training camp. He’s not the assumed starter for the year. Josh will most likely not even play preseason like last year and the draft pick(if Rosen) will have plenty of time to shine.

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9 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Nah, now that’s just kinda cartoonish to assume. Bowles may actually favor Vets, but Hack and Petty clearly didn’t earn the starting spot. They both are garbage and both weren’t too 3 picks to boot. 

Rosen being as good as he is added to the fact he would be a a top 3 pick...There is no doubt in my mind that he will have an opportunity to win that job and will do a lot better than Hackenberg or Petty’s sorry asses. Josh was named the starter going into training camp. He’s not the reassumed starter for the year. Josh will most likely not even play preseason like last year and the draft pick(if Rosen) will have plenty of time to shine.

I guess only time will tell, but I have my doubts with this HC.

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Sorry, but you're wrong on most of this here.  It was a pump-and-go to the seam route; he didn't pump to the short WR on the far right, he pumped to the TE running the seam route  (I wasn't paying attention to the numbers there; if it was a TE/S combo, not a WR/CB, it really doesn't matter).  I'm not sure what you were looking at to think that it was a pump to the WR on the short right; his head and body aren't opened up in that direction and a pump fake to the flat on a deep throw would have absolutely no effect on the coverage of the intended target; the defender is running down the field with his man and no help defender that deep is biting on a pump to the flat anyway, so in addition to being wrong as a matter of where Allen was looking, you're suggesting a play design that makes absolutely no football sense.

You are right it was a pump and go now that I've gone back to look at it.  It was 3:00 in the morning; I was going off memory.

Quote

The safety bailed to the middle of the field - and then booked it over to the route combo on the right that Allen was staring down, because he didn't have to worry about the slot to the left beating the LB with Allen staring down the right.  The part of the call that was design was getting a safety playing deep center field.  Allen leading that deep center fielder directly to the INT was all Allen.

Like you said the defensive play call was designed to have the safety bail to the deep center of the.  And Allen pre-determined he was going to the "pump and go" seam route, the only deep route near the center of the field.  You telling me the safety would not have been there anyway?  Also, who are you looking off when you think there is no safety in the middle of the field.

Quote

"Allen was thinking TD on that play is why he did not step into the throw but instead lofted it trying to "lead" the WR." First, it was a TE, not a WR, which you think is important, so try to keep it consistent.  Second, do you know how QB mechanics work? "I'm trying to lead my WR so I'm not going to step into the throw" is. not. a. thing.  QBs need to be stepping into every throw; that's how they maintain accuracy and control; lofting, leading, or drilling a pass is all about arm angle and release point, not bad footwork.

By "not stepping in" I thought you were implying he should have tried to drill the ball in.  From what I can see he did try to step into the throw but had a guy a split second from hitting him in the chest just as he threw it.

Quote

Plus, that throw wasn't "lofted" - it was a shallow parabola, almost on a line, that the WR (sorry, TE) had no chance to make a play on because it was so far ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but it's possible to lead a WR (or even a TE) without throwing a "lofted" pass, and "lofting" a ball to an open WR (or TE) breaking deep is an especially bad idea when the player has 3 steps on his CB (or S) and there's a safety playing the middle of the field. 

Off memory I said loft because I remember it had some arc to it rather than his usual ropes.  "So far ahead" I guess is subjective; the ball landed close enough to the TE that he ran into the safety intercepting the ball.  Considering there was a man bearing down on him it was an OK throw on a rainy night.

Quote

Which I guess you'll tell me Allen didn't notice, but that's exactly the problem, because if he wasn't staring down the route he'd have noticed the safety bailing off the slot rather than carrying his man.  Trusting your pre-snap read is good.  Forgetting that defenses can change looks post-snap and not seeing the field is not.  "Predetermining what you're going to do post-snap based on what you saw pre-snap" is very much not a good thing. 

I agree pre-determining what you are going to do based on what you see pre-snap is not very good but it's also NOT "terrible"; most Spread QBs do that almost every play.  You said it was a "terrible INT".  If that is terrible then we need a new adjective to describe some of his other INTs.  The guy has some real ugly INTs on tape go back and watch his 2016 games.  Darnold and Rosen has some beauts too; this INT is of the mundane variety. Like I said in my original post, the key there is did he learn something from it?  Does he habitually get fooled into picks based on what he sees pre-snap?

Sorry.  Not trying to be a d*ck, but if you're going to defend bad QB play, it helps to know what good QB play requires.

While it's certainly not elite NFL level QB play it's certainly not bad.  Bad would be not recognizing the pre-snap look to begin with.  I know what good NFL QB play requires but I'm rational enough to not expect to see it consistently from a college prospect.  Most young QBs are guilty of too often staring down WRs and are susceptible to be fooled occasionally by a pre-snap look.  It's something the good ones get better at through time.  

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Thanks for the breakdown. I know it’s a lot of work. Allen has a lot of potential, a very high ceiling with the right team and the right coaches. I’m not sure what the problems have been with the Jets from coaching era to coaching era but they continue to struggle in QB development. Maybe McCown needs to be the QB coach next year. Anyway my major concern with Mayfield is his size. The D- lines in the NFL are big, fast players with long arms and they can jump like NBA players. I see Mayfield struggling with that, especially with anything over the middle on a 3 step drop. If Darnold and Rosen go 1&2 my gut tells me to take the chance with Allen. But the way the Jets develop QBs maybe Mayfield is the better choice. I just don’t know. Uggh!!!

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11 minutes ago, legler82 said:

You are right it was a pump and go now that I've gone back to look at it.  It was 3:00 in the morning; I was going off memory.

No worries.  Just avoid lines like "you have to know what you're looking at" when you're going off memory, because if your memory is off it comes off poorly.

Quote

Like you said the defensive play call was designed to have the safety bail to the deep center of the.  And Allen pre-determined he was going to the "pump and go" seam route, the only deep route near the center of the field.  You telling me the safety would not have been there anyway?  Also, who are you looking off when you think there is no safety in the middle of the field.

There was a second vertical farther to the right and a look to the left would have held the safety for a split second.  If this was a one-time problem for Allen that would be one thing, but I'm seeing in that tape what Orlovsky is describing generally: a habit of staring down his intended receiver.

Quote

By "not stepping in" I thought you were implying he should have tried to drill the ball in.  From what I can see he did try to step into the throw but had a guy a split second from hitting him in the chest just as he threw it.

No, I was literally talking about his mechanics - he threw off his back foot with an awkward short-arm motion, and while it's impressive that he can "arm" the ball that far, he had more than enough space to step into the throw and put it on target.  He'd have gotten hit after he threw, but that's a price a QB needs to be willing to pay on a play like that, especially a guy as big as Allen.

I'm attaching screen shots of the pass rush and step into the pass that Allen makes - you can see he takes a half step bringing his feet even on the throw, rather than a full step

Quote

Off memory I said loft because I remember it had some arc to it rather than his usual ropes.  "So far ahead" I guess is subjective; the ball landed close enough to the TE that he ran into the safety intercepting the ball.  Considering there was a man bearing down on him it was an OK throw on a rainy night.

Again, I'm attaching screenshots; you can see that the intended receiver has no chance of making a play on the ball

 

FireShot Capture 002 - NCAAF 2017 Week 08 Boise State vs Wyoming - _ - https___www.youtube.com_watch.png

FireShot Capture 001 - NCAAF 2017 Week 08 Boise State vs Wyoming - _ - https___www.youtube.com_watch.png

FireShot Capture 003 - NCAAF 2017 Week 08 Boise State vs Wyoming - _ - https___www.youtube.com_watch.png

FireShot Capture 004 - NCAAF 2017 Week 08 Boise State vs Wyoming - _ - https___www.youtube.com_watch.png

FireShot Capture 005 - NCAAF 2017 Week 08 Boise State vs Wyoming - _ - https___www.youtube.com_watch.png

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25 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

@Doggin94it when you get a chance will you do a similar break down for Rosen?

If I get a chance, sure.  Glad it was appreciated

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1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Wrong though. Josh Rosen’s skills will transcend to the pro level a lot smoother than any QB this year, last year or the year before. 

Once these guys take the field, there's usually 2 approaches a CS can take.  They can either hand them the keys letting them take their lumps or manage them slowly adding more and more to their plate so that they don't lose confidence.  

With Rosen I think you can only go with the first option which is fine since I don't think he is capable of losing confidence anyway.  Because he is the most pro-ready and the least mobile of the bunch, he likely will struggle the most early on.  Like Peyton Manning he has the aptitude to take on more of a NFL playbook right away, but lacks the athleticism to fall back on as he adjust to the speed of the NFL.  But just like Manning, once he makes that adjustment, watch out!  That said, let's not forget Manning set a NFL INT record in route to winning just 3 games his rookie season.  Rosen fans must be prepared for the potential early pain that will come with drafting him.

With the Spread guys, Darnold and Mayfield, as well as Allen you can elect to do either approach, throw them in the deep end immediately or slowly bring them across from the shallow end.  Darnold and Mayfield can find some early success if they have an OC that can incorporating a lot of the principles from their college offenses not unlike what O'brien did with Watson and McVay with Goff.  They are also mobile, Danold a bit more so than Mayfield, so when sh*t break down and it will they can make plays with their legs.  Then you get to Allen.  The dirty little secret is that he is next most "pro-ready" to these top guys after Rosen, in terms of having familiarity with pro concepts. While he can't take on as much as Rosen, he does have mobility.  So if an OC can put him is a system that has him on the move a lot with roll outs and bootlegs shrinking the field in half reducing his reads to just 1-2, he can be managed too.

No matter what though if ANY of them, even Rosen, are asked to run a pro-system on Day 1 without any training wheels they will struggle.

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Staring down WRs, predetermining where you are going to throw based on pre-snap looks and inconsistent footwork are not a traits exclusive to Allen.

 

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13 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

He moves through progressions at least some of the time...

Sounds like our type of guy.

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Doggin - Nice breakdown. It's always tough to breakdown video. Great job.

You could have saved yourself some time by analyzing an already cut up version of the game. Just FYI for future reference. 

It would be nice to get a similar post for Rosen and Mayfield. 

For reference, Boise State was considered the 36th most efficient defense last year. Wyoming was considered the 115th most efficient offense (Allen is part of that of course). Boise State was one of the tougher defenses he played. 

Baker played a few good defenses: OSU, Texas, Georgia, Iowa State.

Rosen didn't play as many tough defenses but he did play against Washington.

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/27/josh-allen-vs-boise-state-2017/

 

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This breakdown shows Allen's biggest flaws as a QB: He stares down receivers and he doesn't throw with anticipation. It also shows his greatest strength which is that he is hard to bring down and can make plays outside of the pocket. 

So as much as the Wyoming WR get bashed for not helping Allen, Allen also does not give them the opportunity to make plays after the catch. Seems like a two way deal to me. 

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1 hour ago, GreenFish said:

This breakdown shows Allen's biggest flaws as a QB: He stares down receivers and he doesn't throw with anticipation. It also shows his greatest strength which is that he is hard to bring down and can make plays outside of the pocket. 

So as much as the Wyoming WR get bashed for not helping Allen, Allen also does not give them the opportunity to make plays after the catch. Seems like a two way deal to me. 

Like you say probably blame lies on both sides. However, what these play breakdowns don't tell us is what is the intended route tree and did the recievers run them incorrectly perhaps thwarting some of the YAC potential.

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37 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Like you say probably blame lies on both sides. However, what these play breakdowns don't tell us is what is the intended route tree and did the recievers run them incorrectly perhaps thwarting some of the YAC potential.

There's no reason to assume his receivers ran the wrong routes, especially when Allen is staring at them (so it's not like his mistakes were throwing to spots and the WRs weren't there).

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8 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

There's no reason to assume his receivers ran the wrong routes, especially when Allen is staring at them (so it's not like his mistakes were throwing to spots and the WRs weren't there).

So if he's staring at them the whole way you have no way of knowing that they ran the wrong routes. He may of had to do this as his guys were never in the right spots.

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But who cares if it takes one QB 3 months longer to adapt, they won't be playing with Bowles as coach until what week 12 at minimum.
So Rosen will be more qualified to carry the clipboard, it just doesn't matter.


He plays the best QB. As sad as reality is, Fitz and McCown we’re our best QB’s. Any doubt of that was erased once Petty stepped on the field. That kid is hot garbage and likely threw his last NFL pass. Hack is even worse which is hard to even fathom. Just because you didn’t see him on the field doesn’t make it any less true.

If our draft pick is better than Josh McCown on opening day he’s gonna play.


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