MMQB Draft Thoughts with Gil Brandt

[dbatesman]

Josh Allen sucks

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

Josh Allen sucks

Not sure I heard this before , please explain.

[#27TheDominator]

FWIW, I used to be highest on Rosen until I read the NFL.com post combine piece. Yeesh. Zierlein is no scouting savant, but this sh*t is still scary if you ask me.  Trent Green was a nice QB, but not what I am looking for picking #3 overall in the greatest QB draft since 1983

He lacks plus arm strength,

Arm talent and strength are below average

• May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws
• Poor career deep ball completion rate
• Excess air under ball allows challenges
• Lacks gun to challenge with rip throws over the top

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

There is a thread on here about "success rate."  That is some type of made up stat where they determine if a play is a success.  If a WR is wide open - the QB still has to see him and hit him.  There are plenty of these guys that don't and there was a statistic about how few QBs ever improve their completion percentage in the NFL from college.  A guy who threw 70% isn't likely to keep it up, but a guy that threw 57% is not likely to reach 65% either.

the flaw in the analysis with allen is that some think that if you improve his footwork you can 'fix' his accuracy issues.  accuracy is influenced by footwork but that's only part of it.  if you're accurate to begin with, improving footwork probably has more of an impact on your completion % than if you're relying on the footwork to fix it.  this concept was perfectly illustrated with hackenberg.  even if you fix his footwork you're not fixing his accuracy.  

[Bruce Harper]

17 minutes ago, Dupe said:

In highlight packages you see WRs incredibly wide open by NFL standards.  I dont see these completion pcts and accuracy stats translating. Its a different game.  Evaluators must take into account what a QB is capable of doing. 

Even if the windows are bigger in college,  70% is still a sh*tload better than 56%.  And 56% to much bigger windows seems even worse, now that you point it out.

[Patriot Killa]

23 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

Not today, no. But in the past you have dismissed it (Wyomings O line) if someone mentioned it as a reason for Allen's low completion %.

1.) I never said anything about his O-line...EVER.

2.) So if I didn’t say anything today..why are you following me like a shadow. It’s weird. I don’t care about your man-Love for Allen. I was discussing Rosen’s O-line and injuries with Bitonti.

[Thai Jet]

4 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

1.) I never said anything about his O-line...EVER.

2.) So if I didn’t say anything today..why are you following me like a shadow.  I don’t care about your man-Love for Allen. I was discussing Rosen’s O-line and injuries with Bitonti.

As opposed to your unnatural  man love for Rosen ?

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

As opposed to your unnatural  man love for Rosen ?

But stay on topic for a second, my guy.

Why did you jump into my conversation with another poster about Rosen’s injuries and his Oline, babbling and foaming at the mouth about Allen’s O-line and how I’m a hypocrite? That’s still the puzzling part to me.

No one brought up Allen. I never have spoken about his O-line at all..ever..and here you and JoJo’s Circus are, crying about Allen when you didn’t even tune in long enough to understand what me and Bitoni were discussing. All of a sudden it’s Allen this and Allen that. 

Nah, there really isn’t a deflection method or excuse you can use for that lmao... just stop while I’m ahead.

 

[Thai Jet]

3 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

But stay on topic for a second, my guy.

Why did you jump into my conversation with another poster about Rosen’s injuries and his Oline, babbling and foaming at the mouth about Allen’s O-line and how I’m a hypocrite? That’s still the puzzling part to me.

No one brought up Allen. I never have spoken about his O-line at all..ever..and here you and JoJo’s Circus are, crying about Allen when you didn’t even tune in long enough to understand what me and Bitoni were discussing. All of a sudden it’s Allen this and Allen that. 

Nah, there really isn’t a deflection method of excuse you can use for that lmao... just stop while I’m ahead.

 

Don't know why I'm wasting so much time on you but I'll try one last time and slow it down for you. You're turning this personal and it's not. In the end it don't mean diddly squat.  OK ? Ready ? You were trying to excuse Rosen's injuries on his O line. Bit commented that Miller is a 1st round draft pick. Then you got heated and made it seem like UCLA's O-line was terrible and that's why Rosen got hurt. All that is not true. Miller is a 1st round pick in almost all the mocks I've seen. UCLA's O line was decent this year. Rosen is injury prone and it's a legitimate concern if he'll hold up in the NFL.

Done

 

[ChuckkieB]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

/shrug

I have no idea anymore.  They guy I like is Mayfield, because he gives a sh*t.  He cares.  He has passion.  And a 70% accuracy rate with low INT's.

But he is also IMO one of the riskiest picks I've ever "wanted'.  He could easily bust.  Easily.  

I'm uninspired by Rosen (fragile, lack of focus) and Darnold (turnovers, USC bad pro QB's).  Allen's very low accuracy terrifies me.  Jackson the worst kind of pick for a team like the Jets (needs a ton of development, run first, etc).

More than ever this draft feels like a crapshoot. 

For every strength, a serious material weakness.  For every "this guy is the CLEAR #1 pick" opinion, a countering "this guy is barely a top 15 pick if QB wasn't so overdrafted!" opinion.  

I think Darnold still goes #1, all the Allen at 1 hype is just hype.

I think the Giants take Rosen at #2.  Or trade out, but probably not.

I think that leaves us with a HUGE decision at #3:  Mayfield, whose passion and production are unquestionable but who lacks almost every NFL size metric.....or Allen, the greek god of a human being who lacks almost every production metric you'd want in a college resume and who seems, franklk, kinda dumb and Browning Nagle-like to me.

And even tho I like Mayfield, I cannot with any level of surety say we SHOULD take Mayfield.  I honestly don't know.  I LIKE Mayfield, so that's what I'd root for I suppose.....but I love a huge bazooka arm too, if it can hit teh broad side of a barn once in a while.   

So I guess I just have to be "happy" with whomever we get at QB and pray.  Pray for once in my lifetime as a Jet, WE made the right pick.

I think it's going to go down as you said - Darnold 1 and Rosen 2 (to the Giants or whoever trades up).  In my non-expert opinion, if it comes down to Mayfield or Allen, I would take Mayfield all day.

[SMC]

5 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

probably the worst start to the draft would be if cleveland takes darnold, then the giants trade to buffalo who takes rosen.  

Giants are not trading with Buffalo.  They're not dropping 10 spots from 2 to 12.  The biggest threat for a trade (from Jets perspective) is the Broncos.  Giants can trade back from 2 to 5 and still end up with Barkley/Chubb whom they like.  They don't get any top player at 12.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, SMC said:

Giants are not trading with Buffalo.  They're not dropping 10 spots from 2 to 12.  The biggest threat for a trade (from Jets perspective) is the Broncos.  Giants can trade back from 2 to 5 and still end up with Barkley/Chubb whom they like.  They don't get any top player at 12.

i agree the giants wouldn't drop that far.  but i can see buffalo moving to 6 or 7 prior to the draft, which would give the giants a better landing spot.  that would be the only way i can see the giants trading out.  and this works in the jets favor b/c there seems to be a clear dropoff in talent after the first 7 or so, making it more difficult for other teams in the division to find qbs.

[RutgersJetFan]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I personally think Rosen is, and will continue to be, a sack magnet

You mean like nuts in his face?

[T0mShane]

41 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You mean like nuts in his face?

DEEEEEEZ

[Larz]

The draft that will be talked about forever, Jets pick 3rd 

What could go wrong? 

[Dupe]

8 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Even if the windows are bigger in college,  70% is still a sh*tload better than 56%.  And 56% to much bigger windows seems even worse, now that you point it out.

No, your putting too much stock in these numbers.  Your going to need the stronger arm to throw fastballs in the NFL.  The guys that dont have it are going to see a much bigger drop in percentages and success.  Much tighter windows and defense backs with tremendous closing speed all over the field. 

[Bruce Harper]

9 hours ago, Dupe said:

No, your putting too much stock in these numbers.  Your going to need the stronger arm to throw fastballs in the NFL.  The guys that dont have it are going to see a much bigger drop in percentages and success.  Much tighter windows and defense backs with tremendous closing speed all over the field. 

So you are saying that I should expect Allen to do something in the pros that he never did in High School or College (throw with accuracy)?  And if you think Mayfield doesn't have a strong arm you haven't been paying attention.

[Pcola]

18 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

FWIW, I used to be highest on Rosen until I read the NFL.com post combine piece. Yeesh. Zierlein is no scouting savant, but this sh*t is still scary if you ask me.  Trent Green was a nice QB, but not what I am looking for picking #3 overall in the greatest QB draft since 1983

He lacks plus arm strength,

Arm talent and strength are below average

• May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws
• Poor career deep ball completion rate
• Excess air under ball allows challenges
• Lacks gun to challenge with rip throws over the top

That is just one opinion.  Jeremiah has Josh Rosen rated higher than every QB drafted the past two drafts except for Carson Wentz.  So better than Jared Goff, better than everyone taken last year.

Gil Brandt has Rosen atop of his QB board.

Any knock on him is nitpicking.  He will immediately be the best young QB on our roster since Namath in the 1960’s.  If he’s not available at 3, fine.  But if we pass on him and he ends up in Buffalo, we will continue to be playing for second place.  Just like we have been doing for the past 18 years.

[kelly]

21 hours ago, flgreen said:

Yeah, sorry for walking in on you and "Billy" with a go pro like that, should have knocked. 

now, u know that wasn't me.. it was your... never-mind  

[#27TheDominator]

3 hours ago, Pcola said:

That is just one opinion.  Jeremiah has Josh Rosen rated higher than every QB drafted the past two drafts except for Carson Wentz.  So better than Jared Goff, better than everyone taken last year.

Gil Brandt has Rosen atop of his QB board.

Any knock on him is nitpicking.  He will immediately be the best young QB on our roster since Namath in the 1960’s.  If he’s not available at 3, fine.  But if we pass on him and he ends up in Buffalo, we will continue to be playing for second place.  Just like we have been doing for the past 18 years.

That is my point.  These guys did rate him extremely high.  They rate him at 6.19 (instant starter) behind only Darnold 7.0, and ahead of Mayfield 6.03, Jackson 5.91 and Allen 5.90.  They are behind quite a few non-QBs ahead, topped by Barkley, Nelson and Chubb.  The qualifiers regarding arm strength are the first I have heard and they worry me.

[bitonti]

21 hours ago, Warfish said:

/shrug

I have no idea anymore.  They guy I like is Mayfield, because he gives a sh*t.  He cares.  He has passion.  And a 70% accuracy rate with low INT's.

More than ever this draft feels like a crapshoot. 

1

If the Jets like 2 QB (let's say Mayfield and Darnold) and they are gone I hope Saquon Barkley is their 3rd selection. I don't care if he's "just" an RB and I don't care how many future Jon McGraws they traded to get up to 3. 

People might want Chubb in that situation and Edge is a huge need. But i like the edge crop in rd 3 (Jeff Holland etc). Meanwhile Barkley is Curtis Martin at 230 he catches the ball in space and wins football games.  A guy like that will win 2 or 3 more games just by himself, just by showing up. He turns 5-11 to 8-8. They don't have FQB of the future but there are other QBs in the world like Nick Foles and all of next season. They don't have to make this sophie's choice 3rd QB at 3 just because everyone expects them to.

the 3rd QB at 3 has only happened 2 times in draft history. 

The last time that happened by the way the 3rd qb was Akili Smith 

the only other time it happened was Dan Pastorini in 1971. Pastorini won a ring and a 1x Pro bowl so I guess there's that. But in general this idea they have to lemming off the QB cliff just because they traded 2nd rounders doesn't sound like Mac to me. It sounds like a different GM altogether.  

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If the Jets like 2 QB (let's say Mayfield and Darnold) and they are gone I hope Saquon Barkley is their 3rd selection. I don't care if he's "just" an RB and I don't care how many future Jon McGraws they traded to get up to 3. 

People might want Chubb in that situation and Edge is a huge need. But i like the edge crop in rd 3 (Jeff Holland etc). Meanwhile Barkley is Curtis Martin at 230 he catches the ball in space and wins football games.  A guy like that will win 2 or 3 more games just by himself, just by showing up. He turns 5-11 to 8-8. They don't have FQB of the future but there are other QBs in the world like Nick Foles and all of next season. They don't have to make this sophie's choice 3rd QB at 3 just because everyone expects them to.

the 3rd QB at 3 has only happened 2 times in draft history. 

The last time that happened by the way the 3rd qb was Akili Smith 

the only other time it happened was Dan Pastorini in 1971. Pastorini won a ring and a 1x Pro bowl so I guess there's that. But in general this idea they have to lemming off the QB cliff just because they traded 2nd rounders doesn't sound like Mac to me. It sounds like a different GM altogether.  

With takes like this, you live up perfectly to the self titled - draft bathroom attendant. 

[bitonti]

Just now, JiF said:

With takes like this, you live up perfectly to the self titled - draft bathroom attendant. 

I don't want the QB to be named Josh anymore why is that such a hot take 

Josh Freeman

Josh McCown

Josh Johnson 

Josh Dobbs 

 

and now the Joshes Allen and Rosen. No thanks. 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, bitonti said:

I don't want the QB to be named Josh anymore why is that such a hot take 

Josh Freeman

Josh McCown

Josh Johnson 

Josh Dobbs 

 

and now the Joshes Allen and Rosen. No thanks. 

***draft toilet bowl cleaner***

[Thai Jet]

6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I don't want the QB to be named Josh anymore why is that such a hot take 

Josh Freeman

Josh McCown

Josh Johnson 

Josh Dobbs 

 

and now the Joshes Allen and Rosen. No thanks. 

Damn I wanted the Jets to draft Freeman that year when he came out of K State. . I thought he had it all ,including being 6'6" but he never amounted to diiddly squat. I guess he's still playing but in the Canadian League.

[bitonti]

***draft toilet bowl cleaner***

It's been scientifically proven that red heads and Joshes cannot play nfl qb. The report came from the Jimmy the Greek school of anatomy

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

[Beerfish]

A red headed Josh from USC with a poor completion %

[Thai Jet]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

***draft toilet bowl cleaner***

Liquid or Gel ?

[BCJet]

3 hours ago, Pcola said:

That is just one opinion.  Jeremiah has Josh Rosen rated higher than every QB drafted the past two drafts except for Carson Wentz.  So better than Jared Goff, better than everyone taken last year.

Gil Brandt has Rosen atop of his QB board.

Any knock on him is nitpicking.  He will immediately be the best young QB on our roster since Namath in the 1960’s.  If he’s not available at 3, fine.  But if we pass on him and he ends up in Buffalo, we will continue to be playing for second place.  Just like we have been doing for the past 18 years.

Ive been back and forth on all 3 of these guys (not allen) throughout this process.  I love Mayfield's attitude and think he will be successful.  I also love Darnold's ability to improvise and although he worries me a little, I think he too would be a great pick at 3.

However after everything Ive said, and reading the excellent ESPN interview (not sure why that thread got closed), I think if we are able to pick Josh Rose at #3, the fan base should be ecstatic.  This kid isnt a jerk, hes simply not a guy like Brett Favre who didnt care about school, the environment, or frankly anything other then football and girls.  That does not mean that he is sitting at practice thinking about global warming.  It just means that he may read a book that isnt about football in the offseason as opposed to going hunting - and that is a huge non-issue.

This kid is the most gifted "thrower of the football" since Luck, who also was a smart guy who studied in schoool as opposed to doing other less intellectual things.  Rosen's ability to throw accurately, with the arm to get it down field - AND also no learning curve coming from a pro offense and having the mental ability to change protections, plays, etc puts him in an elite class in my opinion.

Id love to root for Mayfield but if Im Mac and Rosen is there, its an easy pick.

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's been scientifically proven that red heads and Joshes cannot play nfl qb. The report came from the Jimmy the Greek school of anatomy

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

***draft toilet swirly participant***

[Larz]

5 hours ago, bitonti said:

If the Jets like 2 QB (let's say Mayfield and Darnold) and they are gone I hope Saquon Barkley is their 3rd selection. I don't care if he's "just" an RB and I don't care how many future Jon McGraws they traded to get up to 3. 

People might want Chubb in that situation and Edge is a huge need. But i like the edge crop in rd 3 (Jeff Holland etc). Meanwhile Barkley is Curtis Martin at 230 he catches the ball in space and wins football games.  A guy like that will win 2 or 3 more games just by himself, just by showing up. He turns 5-11 to 8-8. They don't have FQB of the future but there are other QBs in the world like Nick Foles and all of next season. They don't have to make this sophie's choice 3rd QB at 3 just because everyone expects them to.

the 3rd QB at 3 has only happened 2 times in draft history. 

The last time that happened by the way the 3rd qb was Akili Smith 

the only other time it happened was Dan Pastorini in 1971. Pastorini won a ring and a 1x Pro bowl so I guess there's that. But in general this idea they have to lemming off the QB cliff just because they traded 2nd rounders doesn't sound like Mac to me. It sounds like a different GM altogether.  

RB is not a good investment. They break down. 

If he is really good, that just means we are picking 12th next year with no shot at a QB 

Take the QB and don't over think it 

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, Larz said:

RB is not a good investment. They break down. 

If he is really good, that just means we are picking 12th next year with no shot at a QB 

Take the QB and don't over think it 

there's always more QBs. Jimmy G is making franchise money, the Jets took Jace Amaro instead. 

[RutgersJetFan]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

there's always more QBs. Jimmy G is making franchise money, the Jets took Jace Amaro instead. 

You do realize that the example you just gave involves the Jets passing on a quarterback for a low value position in which the prospect was a highly successful, athletic freak that some declared would be one of the best players in the draft?

[bitonti]

4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You do realize that the example you just gave involves the Jets passing on a quarterback for a low value position in which the prospect was a highly successful, athletic freak that some declared would be one of the best players in the draft?

To be clear im not against all QB

just don't want to look at pictures like this for the next decade

 

[Larz]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

there's always more QBs. Jimmy G is making franchise money, the Jets took Jace Amaro instead. 

Barkley is literally just average in  some of the key metrics for backs 

Percent of carries over 4 yards 

Percent of carries over 10 yards 

Trading 3 picks makes this a QB pick