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Draft Rumor Round Up; Mayfield Visit


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24 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

what's really amusing in this draft is that there are 4 qbs projected to basically go top 10, there are a few teams in the top 10 projected to take qbs and others who may trade into the top 10 - yet the projections for the top qb taken by cleveland, at #1 vary more than who the jets are taking and getting maybe the 3rd best qb.

Or maybe the best QB

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5 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I watched every throw each of these guys made last year - 

Allen truly impressed me - what I saw of his game I believe will best transfer to today's NFL.  People want to say he's innacurate but that's not entirely true - he's actually very accurate quite often, I've seenhim consistently make very tight window throws - to basically covered recievers (his receivers rarely get separation) The exact throw that is necessary in the NFL - he does miss some throws badly on occasion (but so does Rosen and Tom Brady) If the worst thing we hvae to fix with him is finding a way to be more accurate on screens passes - I'll take that chance.

While I can certainly see Rosen's skill-set, apreciate the smoothness - I also see an inmobile-statue with an average NFL arm who hasn't finished each of the past two season due to injury.  If you can't get through a college season how can you expect the gruelling 17 weeks NFL season?  An oft-injured QB will be worse for this franchises development than a bust.

FWIW - I think we're going to end up with Rosen - and i'll be excited for him - just hope he can stay healthy.

OK forget your opnion on Rosen, agree to disagree. I understand where your concerns stem from, but it still feels like you're missing the point...

But how can you (or anyone) say i've watched all the Allen games -- and come away with the thought "He's the best"... tell me what i can take away from his game vs ORE. I just can't understand.

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16 hours ago, JiF said:

Hmmm....this would fine if there wasnt numerous throws on film of Josh Allen missing these easy throws you're saying he didnt get.  There are numerous examples of him air mailing and missing screens by 10-20 feet ala Hack.

https://medium.com/mesh-point-scouting/film-breakdown-josh-allen-2017-4c8985c54df9

Bruh, his completion % literally jumps to 61% when you give him the same pass distribution as Mayfield. Those screen air mails are overblown, he hits those passes at a high enough rate that they improve his completion %. Does he hit them at the same rate as other guys, obviously not. But with that stated, the fact that his completion % jumps to 61% should tell you all you need to know about the scheme he was in. Add into the fact that he plays on a terrible team, and you have your reason for this overblown circlejerk about his accuracy.

18 hours ago, Pcola said:

Look, I’m not attacking you, but if I was McCown, I would LOVE the Jets to draft Allen.  Probably nets him another 2 years, $25M.  Darnold, Rosen, And Myfield would be the permanent starter no later than December.  Allen guarantees McCown has zero threat to his job and he will have serious leverage to resign next offseason.

Just give me one example of a QB with Allen’s tape and stats that has ever done anything in the NFL?  Now imagine the pressure of being a top 3 pick with that type of portfolio?  If we draft Allen, We are betting against a world of evidence.  

Heck, here is a QB that went 2-4 as a starter in Junior College.  If this guy was any where near good enough to raise the level of play around him, how the hell does he lose to Hartnell Junior College with a stat line of 13-35-241 yards?  37% completion.  

Josh Allen would be a fantastic pick in the third round for a team that can stash in for 3 years.  

Not for a team that has had the pile of dog crap at QB that we have had since 1969.  We need a slam dunk with this pick, not a one-handed full court prayer.

You didn't read that guy's post did you? For evidence about how dogsh*t his team was, when Allen was out hurt, his team lost to two teams who both had 0 wins. That's the type of team he was playing on. As for the junior college game, stop box scouting. As far as I know, there's no tape on that game, so we have no idea about his teams talent level or what was happening in that game.

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14 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

what's really amusing in this draft is that there are 4 qbs projected to basically go top 10, there are a few teams in the top 10 projected to take qbs and others who may trade into the top 10 - yet the projections for the top qb taken by cleveland, at #1 vary more than who the jets are taking and getting maybe the 3rd best qb.

It’s because a lot of other scenarios that draft-Twitter boneheads want to dream up for clicks desperately relies upon someone other than Darnold and Rosen being the 1 and 2. Every time there’s a new rumor, they get to make a new(!) mock draft, which gets them new(!) pageviews, which gets them money, I saw a few amusing mocks this week putting Rosen at #11. Very clicky.

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17 hours ago, nycdan said:

Hasn't Casserly done enough to the Jets for one career?

You ain’t kidding.

He has a lot of the responsibility for Maccagnan/Bowles being in the jobs they are in now.  Jets would have been better off asking Ferry Korn or whatever it’s called to pick their Front Office again haha

Didn’t Belichick angrily retort to some reporters question about a year ago...”When was the last time Casserly been right?  About anything?”

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18 hours ago, nycdan said:

My dream scenario is we draft Rosen and he's the best of the bunch, but Allen is close (in CLE) and Mayfield busts fast and hard (in BUF or MIA).  Only because it would slightly dampen the amount of insane confidence people here have in their opinions being 100% right.  It might only be a small impact but I'll take what I can get.

I want this to happen only so that you can learn that nothing in the universe will have that impact for most people who interact online

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2 hours ago, artemusclyde said:

Bruh, his completion % literally jumps to 61% when you give him the same pass distribution as Mayfield. Those screen air mails are overblown, he hits those passes at a high enough rate that they improve his completion %. Does he hit them at the same rate as other guys, obviously not. But with that stated, the fact that his completion % jumps to 61% should tell you all you need to know about the scheme he was in. Add into the fact that he plays on a terrible team, and you have your reason for this overblown circlejerk about his accuracy.

You didn't read that guy's post did you? For evidence about how dogsh*t his team was, when Allen was out hurt, his team lost to two teams who both had 0 wins. That's the type of team he was playing on. As for the junior college game, stop box scouting. As far as I know, there's no tape on that game, so we have no idea about his teams talent level or what was happening in that game.

He also had the lowest drop rate of the top 5 QBs in this draft.  So when I compare Rosen and Allen, I see both guys didn’t have affect run games.  

But Wyoming was able to win games against Hawaii where Allen completed 9 passes for 92 yards, Air Force where he completed 8 passes for 70, Col St where he completed ten passes for 138 yards.

Then in games they lost like OR, they felt it only necessary for Allen to go 9-24-64 & 0 TDs, Boise St 12-27-131.  So when they won, he didn’t really have to do a lot.  When they lost, the HC didn’t ask him to do a lot.  

In comparison, Rosen in his comeback against TxA&M, 35-59-491-4 TDs.

Hawaii, a common opponent, 22-25-329-5 TDs.

A loss against USC, 32-52-421-3 TDs.

what I am saying is simple.  If Allen was the type of talent that warranted being drafted in the top half of the first round, why wasn’t he able to to do more?  And more importantly, in games they were losing, why the hell wouldn’t his HC say to his “elite” QB, go get us a win.  But instead, limited Allen’s attempts to half of what Rosen was doing to rally UCLA.

My first thought was that his coaching staff at WY was absolutely terrible but he was somehow amazing just a couple of seasons ago winning championships at N.Dak St with and without Carson Wentz.

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19 hours ago, nycdan said:

My dream scenario is we draft Rosen and he's the best of the bunch, but Allen is close (in CLE) and Mayfield busts fast and hard (in BUF or MIA).  Only because it would slightly dampen the amount of insane confidence people here have in their opinions being 100% right.  It might only be a small impact but I'll take what I can get.

 

 

 

It is amazing how confident the Mayfield fans are meanwhile these are the same people who cried when we didn’t draft Lynch two years ago

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8 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

It is amazing how confident the Mayfield fans are meanwhile these are the same people who cried when we didn’t draft Lynch two years ago

You are basing this on....what, exactly?

Wasn't a Lynch fan at all, very much on the Mayfield (or Darnold) bus. Rosen as the fall-back, Allen in the 7th round maybe unless Dimitri Flowers is still on the board.

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3 hours ago, artemusclyde said:

Bruh, his completion % literally jumps to 61% when you give him the same pass distribution as Mayfield. Those screen air mails are overblown, he hits those passes at a high enough rate that they improve his completion %. Does he hit them at the same rate as other guys, obviously not. But with that stated, the fact that his completion % jumps to 61% should tell you all you need to know about the scheme he was in. Add into the fact that he plays on a terrible team, and you have your reason for this overblown circlejerk about his accuracy.

I have no doubt that if Allen played in Mayfield's offense his accuracy would be higher.  You could probably say that for every single QB in the country.  That said, your hypothetical scenario is hard to swallow when you see Allen miss easy screens and swings to RB's by 10 feet.  

The other part that is challenging with your whole scheme argument is Brent Vigen has been running the offense for a while now at Wyoming and he was the OC during and before Josh Allen.  In 2015, in the same scheme, Cameron Coffman completed 63% of his passes.  So, why was Allen so much worse in the same scheme? 

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8 minutes ago, JiF said:

I have no doubt that if Allen played in Mayfield's offense his accuracy would be higher.  You could probably say that for every single QB in the country.  That said, your hypothetical scenario is hard to swallow when you see Allen miss easy screens and swings to RB's by 10 feet.  

The other part that is challenging with your whole scheme argument is Brent Vigen has been running the offense for a while now at Wyoming and he was the OC during and before Josh Allen.  In 2015, in the same scheme, Cameron Coffman completed 63% of his passes.  So, why was Allen so much worse in the same scheme? 

Meanwhile if Mayfield played for wyoming he wouldn’t even be a 7th round pick

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13 minutes ago, JiF said:

I have no doubt that if Allen played in Mayfield's offense his accuracy would be higher.  You could probably say that for every single QB in the country.  That said, your hypothetical scenario is hard to swallow when you see Allen miss easy screens and swings to RB's by 10 feet.  

The other part that is challenging with your whole scheme argument is Brent Vigen has been running the offense for a while now at Wyoming and he was the OC during and before Josh Allen.  In 2015, in the same scheme, Cameron Coffman completed 63% of his passes.  So, why was Allen so much worse in the same scheme? 

Simple, Wyoming was better in 2015 then 2017 on offense. Seriously, look at their rushing offense, they were ranked 62 in 2015 vs 118 in 2017. Avg per carry came out to be 4.35 vs 3.17. 

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1 hour ago, Pcola said:

He also had the lowest drop rate of the top 5 QBs in this draft.  So when I compare Rosen and Allen, I see both guys didn’t have affect run games.  

But Wyoming was able to win games against Hawaii where Allen completed 9 passes for 92 yards, Air Force where he completed 8 passes for 70, Col St where he completed ten passes for 138 yards.

Then in games they lost like OR, they felt it only necessary for Allen to go 9-24-64 & 0 TDs, Boise St 12-27-131.  So when they won, he didn’t really have to do a lot.  When they lost, the HC didn’t ask him to do a lot.  

In comparison, Rosen in his comeback against TxA&M, 35-59-491-4 TDs.

Hawaii, a common opponent, 22-25-329-5 TDs.

A loss against USC, 32-52-421-3 TDs.

what I am saying is simple.  If Allen was the type of talent that warranted being drafted in the top half of the first round, why wasn’t he able to to do more?  And more importantly, in games they were losing, why the hell wouldn’t his HC say to his “elite” QB, go get us a win.  But instead, limited Allen’s attempts to half of what Rosen was doing to rally UCLA.

My first thought was that his coaching staff at WY was absolutely terrible but he was somehow amazing just a couple of seasons ago winning championships at N.Dak St with and without Carson Wentz.

First off comparing Rosen to Allen is a bit unfair, considering that Rosen is probably the best qb in the draft. If it comes down to Rosen or Allen you draft Rosen, though an argument could be made for Allen. But anyway, back to the point Allen in 2016 when he had good receivers, had the highest rate of big time throws (guy explains it in the first reddit post) compared to all the other top rated qbs for this year's best season. He also did this with a terrible offensive line that got him pressured the most out of all the other top qbs except for Rosen in 2016. 

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2 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

Simple, Wyoming was better in 2015 then 2017 on offense. Seriously, look at their rushing offense, they were ranked 62 in 2015 vs 118 in 2017. Avg per carry came out to be 4.35 vs 3.17. 

What?  They won 2 Football game in 2015.  In 2016 (with Allen completing 56% of his passes in his best season in college) , they were actually a better running team.  They ran for more yards, more TD's and at nearly 40 more yards and a 1 TD more per game. Allen still completed 56% of his passes. 

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4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

It’s because a lot of other scenarios that draft-Twitter boneheads want to dream up for clicks desperately relies upon someone other than Darnold and Rosen being the 1 and 2. Every time there’s a new rumor, they get to make a new(!) mock draft, which gets them new(!) pageviews, which gets them money, I saw a few amusing mocks this week putting Rosen at #11. Very clicky.

That people don't get this is astounding.

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35 minutes ago, JiF said:

What?  They won 2 Football game in 2015.  In 2016 (with Allen completing 56% of his passes in his best season in college) , they were actually a better running team.  They ran for more yards, more TD's and at nearly 40 more yards and a 1 TD more per game. Allen still completed 56% of his passes. 

What's so shocking about them being better on offense in 2015 compared to 2017? That 2017 team was terrible. Allen was the third most pressured qb in the nation that year. As for the rest, Allen was throwing for more yards per game then Coffman was. They went from 101th passing offense to the 67th passing offense. Allen average 8.6 yards/attempt then Coffman's 8.0 too. Coffman also was responsible for -118 yards rushing, while Allen rushed for 523 yards. If anything that suggests that Allen was a huge part in that increase in the run game, considering how Wyoming used Allen as a running threat. Actually considering that if you divide 523/14, that gives you 37.357 yards per game. Which basically supports that the increase in the running game was due to Allen.

Edit: Not to mention that Wyoming had a harder schedule in 2016 as compared to 2015. They had a sos ranked at 106 in 2015, compared to 77 in 2016. Hell even in Allen's 2017 season they were at 84.

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8 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

What's so shocking about them being better on offense in 2015 compared to 2017? That 2017 team was terrible. Allen was the third most pressured qb in the nation that year. As for the rest, Allen was throwing for more yards per game then Coffman was. They went from 101th passing offense to the 67th passing offense. Allen average 8.6 yards/attempt then Coffman's 8.0 too. Coffman also was responsible for -118 yards rushing, while Allen rushed for 523 yards. If anything that suggests that Allen was a huge part in that increase in the run game, considering how Wyoming used Allen as a running threat. Actually considering that if you divide 523/14, that gives you 37.357 yards per game. Which basically supports that the increase in the running game was due to Allen.

I'm talking about 2016.  His running game was better than 2015 yet Coffman still completed at 7% high clip.  If you want to credit Allen with making the running game better, fine...but that still doesnt explain his comp %.  In fact, no amount of amazing running is all of a sudden going to make you a more accurate passer. 

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2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

It is amazing how confident the Mayfield fans are meanwhile these are the same people who cried when we didn’t draft Lynch two years ago

wrong yet again.  I had zero interest or regard for Lynch, yet I like Mayfield as well as Rosen and Darnold.  You make stupid assumptions to go along with your mosquito-like redundancy.  Clown.

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

I'm talking about 2016.  His running game was better than 2015 yet Coffman still completed at 7% high clip.  If you want to credit Allen with making the running game better, fine...but that still doesnt explain his comp %.  In fact, no amount of amazing running is all of a sudden going to make you a more accurate passer. 

Allen also had a harder schedule, in case you missed my recent edit.

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1 minute ago, Dcat said:

wrong yet again.  I had zero interest or regard for Lynch, yet I like Mayfield as well as Rosen and Darnold.  You make stupid assumptions to go along with your mosquito-like redundancy.  Clown.

Ouch.  Don't hold back there. 'Cat. 

On another topic, were you aware that Phil doesn't like Baker Mayfield? He's been pretty quiet about it, so you might not have noticed.

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12 minutes ago, JiF said:

Harder schedule?  In the Mountain West...dude...

Oh, your one of those people. Is it honestly that crazy for you guy's to realize that team's talent level is relative? If Allen is playing in the Mountain West, he's playing with Mountain West talent. Which is evident by how high he was pressured when he was playing, with him being the 3rd most pressured qb in the nation despite playing in the Mountain West. But I guess that doesn't really matter since he was getting sacked and hit by Mountain West talent. It just blows my mind how you get up all in arms about his completion %, when you adjust his passing distribution to match Mayfield he jumps up to 61%, adjust it to Rosen, he gets up to 59%. He has the highest amount of NFl level throws compared to the other top qbs and highest air yardage showing that he was asked to make difficult throws. But none of this matters because 56% and Mountain West.

Edit: And let's make this clear, that adjusted pass % isn't even taking things like scheme and talent into consideration. For instance, if Mayfield has a 15 yard wide open throw and Allen has to make one of his tight window NFL throws, they are still matched evenly in that completion adjusting, so even that is not perfect. Or better yet, if one of Mayfield's wide receivers makes a crazy adjustment to catch a difficult ball (it's happened) but Allen makes a similar throw and it's dropped, that also penalizes Allen in this adjustment.

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1 minute ago, artemusclyde said:

Oh, your one of those people. Is it honestly that crazy for you guy's to realize that team's talent level is relative? If Allen is playing in the Mountain West, he's playing with Mountain West talent. Which is evident by how high he was pressured when he was playing, with him being the 3rd most pressured qb in the nation despite playing in the Mountain West. But I guess that doesn't really matter since he was getting sacked and hit by Mountain West talent. It just blows my mind how you get up all in arms about his completion %, when you adjust his passing distribution to match Mayfield he jumps up to 61%, adjust it to Rosen, he gets up to 59%. He has the highest amount of NFl level throws compared to the other top qbs and highest air yardage showing that he was asked to make difficult throws. But none of this matters because 56% and Mountain West.

This is correct.  You're not drafting Allen because of his stats....You're drafting Allen because of his potential and noting how his skill-set translates best to the NFL game.

Put his stats aside and watch him throw the ball, watch how his recievers almost never get separation, watch how he fits the ball into very tight windows on a regular basis and watch how he can effortless throw the ball, on a rope, 30 yards, accurately!  

I'm not saying he's a lock - but none of the others are either.  

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

This is correct.  You're not drafting Allen because of his stats....You're drafting Allen because of his potential and noting how his skill-set translates best to the NFL game.

Put his stats aside and watch him throw the ball, watch how his recievers almost never get separation, watch how he fits the ball into very tight windows on a regular basis and watch how he can effortless throw the ball, on a rope, 30 yards, accurately!  

I'm not saying he's a lock - but none of the others are either.  

The funny thing is that people KILL Allen for his comp % and production and yet fall all over themselves with the RB version of Allen that being Barkley who ran for a whopping 1200 yards and had something like 3 100 yard reg season games last year to go along with a poor yards after contact stat.

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23 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

Oh, your one of those people. Is it honestly that crazy for you guy's to realize that team's talent level is relative? If Allen is playing in the Mountain West, he's playing with Mountain West talent. Which is evident by how high he was pressured when he was playing, with him being the 3rd most pressured qb in the nation despite playing in the Mountain West. But I guess that doesn't really matter since he was getting sacked and hit by Mountain West talent. It just blows my mind how you get up all in arms about his completion %, when you adjust his passing distribution to match Mayfield he jumps up to 61%, adjust it to Rosen, he gets up to 59%. He has the highest amount of NFl level throws compared to the other top qbs and highest air yardage showing that he was asked to make difficult throws. But none of this matters because 56% and Mountain West.

Edit: And let's make this clear, that adjusted pass % isn't even taking things like scheme and talent into consideration. For instance, if Mayfield has a 15 yard wide open throw and Allen has to make one of his tight window NFL throws, they are still matched evenly in that completion adjusting, so even that is not perfect. Or better yet, if one of Mayfield's wide receivers makes a crazy adjustment to catch a difficult ball (it's happened) but Allen makes a similar throw and it's dropped, that also penalizes Allen in this adjustment.

Coffman played with Mountain West talent at the same school.  His team was so terrible, they won 2 games.  He played in the same scheme.  Still completed 7% points higher than Allen.  Also, the 7 passers who finished ahead of Allen this season all played with Mountain West talent and it didnt hinder their performance.  

I dont know why me not accepting a hypothetical scenario because I've seen Allen not execute on plays that mirror your hypothetical scenario is mind blowing.  Seems a lot more reasonable than, if your Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle, scenario you keep pushing as if it has any merit.  

 

 

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For all the posters who keep screaming about Allen being less accurate than Hackenberg watch the throw he makes in this video in a very tight window at 2:00:

The guy who breaks down this film also shows in explicit detail why Allen will be good in the nfl

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