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Would you swap places with Browns for #3 and 2019 first rounder?


jgb

Do you do the deal?  

103 members have voted

  1. 1. Browns offer #1 for our #3 and 2019 first rounder. What do you do?



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The move up to 3 looks like gold at the moment. Had we not traded up, the Colts would have pulled the trigger with the Bills. As it stands, we are getting one of the top 3 QB's who are ranked practically the same. Had we stayed at 6, who knows what scraps we would have been left with.

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13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I pray to all that his holy that the giants and Browns agree with you.

with that said, i'd be instantly happy with Darnold. I do believe in him completely... but i've sided with the other two more so. 

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4 hours ago, TeddEY said:

Because there are two QBs who are objectively better prospects.  Getting the third and it paying off is luck.  Process matters.

sorry, there arent objectively better prospects when draft "experts" flip 4 as the #1 all offseason long.  I'd give odds that 6 legit QBs come out of this draft over just 2.

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4 hours ago, slimjasi said:

No chance. 

The way I look at is, I'd be happy with Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield. I don't have enough conviction in ranking those guys to give up an additional first rounder to ensure that I get my top guy. 

I don't have enough conviction in ranking them either.  If I was GM?   I sure as sh*t better have conviction.  I would almost certainly make this deal in that case.  Plus it rules out the Giants trading the pick.  

What would I do?  Counter of course.  Our 2018 and 2019 firsts for #1 and something else - maybe a 2019 2nd or 3rd. 

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42 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

sorry, there arent objectively better prospects when draft "experts" flip 4 as the #1 all offseason long.  I'd give odds that 6 legit QBs come out of this draft over just 2.

Draft expert = entertainment blogger

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58 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't have enough conviction in ranking them either.  If I was GM?   I sure as sh*t better have conviction.  I would almost certainly make this deal in that case.  Plus it rules out the Giants trading the pick.  

What would I do?  Counter of course.  Our 2018 and 2019 firsts for #1 and something else - maybe a 2019 2nd or 3rd. 

Yeah, but statistically, how much would your conviction (as GM) really be worth? I hear what you are saying, but I just don't think there is a large difference between the top 3-4 QBs in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if the 3rd guy taken ends up being the best of the bunch.

The important point to me is that they all have a chance to be pretty good in the right circumstance. I'm happy with pick #3. 

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36 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, but statistically, how much would your conviction (as GM) really be worth? I hear what you are saying, but I just don't think there is a large difference between the top 3-4 QBs in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if the 3rd guy taken ends up being the best of the bunch.

The important point to me is that they all have a chance to be pretty good in the right circumstance. I'm happy with pick #3. 

if my GM can't discern the difference between the top three then why have one?  Get some algorithm and can him 

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12 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

It's really not.  There is a level of luck involved, but a good GM and scouting team makes a huge difference. 

How many "good GM and scouting teams" do you think exist in the NFL?   -

Almost half of all first round picks bust and it gets worse in later rounds so there can't be many...

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20 hours ago, dbatesman said:

I’m with this guy, all 4 QB’s are good but JETS will get whover the best one is

You're usually spot on, but this take was ... not good.

The issue isn't confidence that the Jets will get whoever is best.  It's the lack of meaningfully predictive separation among the prospects, such that the opportunity to have certainty that the team will get its first choice rather than potentially being stuck with its third choice (which is the current worst case scenario) isn't worth a first round pick.

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13 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I have said I disagree enough, but it is even less true the higher the draft pick, @ #1?  Not much luck involved at all

20 QBs have been taken No. 1 overall since 1967.  Of those 20, 3 have been epic busts (Russell, Carr, Couch).  At least another 6 have to be considered failed picks as well - guys you wouldn't take near No. 1 if you had the benefit of hindsight (Bradford, George, Alex Smith, Bartkowski, Testaverde, Vick).

11 have justified their draft spot - Stafford, Newton, Bledsoe, Palmer, Luck, Plunkett, Eli, Aikman, Bradshaw, Peyton, and Elway.  And if you wanted to argue that Bledsoe and Palmer belong in the Bradford-George-Bartkowski tier, I probably wouldn't argue with you.  There are basically only nine QBs taken No. 1 overall that teams have no doubt no regrets on.

The No. 1 pick has better odds of being right than the no 2 or 3 or 4, etc.  But it's no guarantee

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DEAR GOD! 

Someone please show me where I said that no luck was involved or that good GM/scouting teams don't make mistakes.  #1 overalls are "often" busts?  How often is the third QB taken a "franchise" QB?  Maybe cause it was Watson you guys think you can throw a blanket over them.  I don't.  Since the Mangini era started these are the 3rd QB taken in the draft - Lynch, Grayson, Bridgewater, Glennon, Tannehill. Gabbert, Clausen, Freeman, Brohme, Kolb and Cutler. Two of them made their 2nd contract and their teams probably both regret it. It is not a ******* crapshoot.  You are supposed to make an educated selection based on the player, your team and the fit.  If you can't do that and you are throwing darts then you don't belong in an NFL front office.  IMO if you think that you don't belong arguing about it on a message board either.

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7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

DEAR GOD! 

Someone please show me where I said that no luck was involved or that good GM/scouting teams don't make mistakes.  #1 overalls are "often" busts?  How often is the third QB taken a "franchise" QB?  Maybe cause it was Watson you guys think you can throw a blanket over them.  I don't.  Since the Mangini era started these are the 3rd QB taken in the draft - Lynch, Grayson, Bridgewater, Glennon, Tannehill. Gabbert, Clausen, Freeman, Brohme, Kolb and Cutler. Two of them made their 2nd contract and their teams probably both regret it. It is not a ******* crapshoot.  You are supposed to make an educated selection based on the player, your team and the fit.  If you can't do that and you are throwing darts then you don't belong in an NFL front office.  IMO if you think that you don't belong arguing about it on a message board either.

Watch your step bro. :-) 

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On 4/12/2018 at 12:03 PM, jgb said:

I take it. Then Macc has zero excuses for whiffing and all the glory for hitting. If we stay at 3 the leaks begin 8 seconds after the pick that we really wanted the guy taken #1 (or #2) as a CYA.

what makes you think he'd take darnold?

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6 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

DEAR GOD! 

Someone please show me where I said that no luck was involved or that good GM/scouting teams don't make mistakes.  #1 overalls are "often" busts?  How often is the third QB taken a "franchise" QB?  Maybe cause it was Watson you guys think you can throw a blanket over them.  I don't.  Since the Mangini era started these are the 3rd QB taken in the draft - Lynch, Grayson, Bridgewater, Glennon, Tannehill. Gabbert, Clausen, Freeman, Brohme, Kolb and Cutler. Two of them made their 2nd contract and their teams probably both regret it. It is not a ******* crapshoot.  You are supposed to make an educated selection based on the player, your team and the fit.  If you can't do that and you are throwing darts then you don't belong in an NFL front office.  IMO if you think that you don't belong arguing about it on a message board either.

And most are saying this is a really good QB draft.  A lot different than the usual draft where we're lucky if there is 1 or 2 QBs. 

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