Does a Certain Height actually Matter at QB?

[JETSfaninNE]

Lots of height talk with the rumors flying about Baker at 3.  Found this article interesting when I read it yesterday. This is some seriously heavy math, but the conclusion is very interesting.  This is mainly about batted passes, not necessarily about the vision and passing lanes.  Any Math majors want to take a stab at it, does this make sense? 

 

Obviously, the posts i'm referring to are all based on Baker Mayfield. I'm of the belief that the height filter for quarterbacks occurs when they enter college, not when they move to the NFL (at that point, it's a skill filter that removes them) so I decided to do some quick tests on batted passes data. This data isn't conclusive, but it'll reveal some information about this batted passes issue everyone seems to bring up.

Where's the data from?

Got access to PFF's premium stats again, so i'm using their batted passes stats. I'm testing a players batted passes in year N vs batted passes in year N+1 (which will tell you how much of the trait of getting your passes batted down is intrinsic to the player) as well as attempts per batted basses year N vs attempts per batted passes year N+1, to check if the rate is stable.

You'll see two sets of testing, one against all QBs with at least 25% of their teams snaps from 2013-2017, and one for all QBs 6'2 or shorter.

All QB regressions:

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Essentially, the amount of batted passes a player has from the next year is only 10% explained (R² of .10) by the batted passes from the previous year. So it's not very meaningful for QBs across all heights, and batted passes would seemingly be a weak intrinsic trait for a player. *To make this even clearer, it means that 90% of the batted passes volume in year N+1 is explained by forces outside of the QBs own batted passes in year N.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

This one is even worse for year to year stability, the rate of batted passes is pretty much completely unstable.

QBs 6'2 and under

Here's the raw dataset, so you can see which QBs were in this.

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Take a look at that straight line. When you do QBs under 6'2, the volume of batted passes is actually even worse for stability year to year. This could almost be considered random. It's counter-intuitive considering most people would believe that the shorter QBs would be more prone to getting their passes batted, but that's what the numbers would tell you. Could it be a case of elite QBs like Rodgers and Brees carrying most of the workload? Maybe.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

And the rate year to year stability is even worse.

QBs 6'2 and under without Brees/Rodgers

Our sample set becomes very small here, but here's the raw look.

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Even without the two elite quarterbacks, the year to year stability is weak. Last year's batted passes only explains 2% of the variance of next years batted passes. Which means about 98% of the explanation for a QB under 6'2's batted passes that are not Rodgers/Brees, comes from outside that QBs own skills.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

This is the strongest number we can get for the rate, but it's still peaking at 1% explaination of the variance year to year. Completely unstable.

Height vs BP

So we can take all the QBs and the sum of all their batted passes, as well as the total rate they've had of batted passes- and see if their height is in any way correlated/predictive for either one. The answer is no.

Charts:

Battled Passes Volume vs Height

Batted Passes Rate vs Height

Graphs:

Batted Passes Volume vs Height

Batted Passes Rate vs Height

Essentially, the two have extremely weak correlation and height is not predictive of either batted passes by volume or rate.

Conclusion

Height doesn't matter, probably. This isn't a conclusive study since you can only test players who have actually played and have played at least 2 consecutive seasons, but Height probably doesn't matter. Neither does having your passes batted. By the numbers here, the amount of batted passes year to year seems more stable when you're taller than when you're shorter. It suggests there's nothing intrinsic about having your passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.

Anyway, let me know if there's anything you want to know related to this.

 

Source

[CanadaSteve]

Well, there have been very few QB's who have come it at 5'9", so I would say it has something to do with it.

 

[Paradis]

Mayfield is 6'1, Rodgers is 6'2

Are we really to believe 1 inch will handicap this guy's potential? 

[JETSfaninNE]

19 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Well, there have been very few QB's who have come it at 5'9", so I would say it has something to do with it.

 

Staying on topic and realistic the article is making a point for the 6' - 6'2 range and comparing it to QBs above 6'2. I guess you do make a point that I should edit the topic so to avoid the crappy drive by posts like yours  

[Dcronin]

Well I think OP is saying there is a PERCEPTION that it matters, but it really doesn't - in terms of batted passes.

But there are other things to consider, such as where on the field can shorter QBs see/throw. One post recently talked about Tyrod Taylor, because of his height, having more trouble up the crowded middle, and thus making more of his throws to the outside.

I'd like to see some math on that.

As far as Mayfield vs Rosen, I am increasingly torn as to who I like better, and am okay with either. I bet Rosen is gone by #3.

I do not see a prick in Mayfield. Not saying I want to hang out with the guy, but I just see a fiery competitor who would be a friggin' blast to play with. (That's who Dede Westbrook he is too.)

DC

[JETSfaninNE]

6 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Mayfield is 6'1, Rodgers is 6'2

Are we really to believe 1 inch will handicap this guy's potential? 

I don't but I did have the assumption that height did matter for something like batted balls at the line.  My thought process on that was with more height your passing lane has a higher apex to throw over but it seems that can also be mitigated by throwing motion and just smart and savvy play that includes how a QB probably uses their eyes. 

[RutgersJetFan]

For what it’s worth I know a guy that knows a guy that saw Peter Dinklage play quarterback in high school and supposedly he can really sling it.

[NoBowles]

The taller a player is, the larger their anatomy should be. But, supposedly, Mayfield has the biggest balls, despite being the shortest QB. So I say height doesn't really matter.

[Villain The Foe]

Josh Allen is the tallest of the top 4 guys. We all knew about his big arm and boy was Josh showing off his arm and overall height at the Combine/Pro day. It wasnt a surprise when Josh Allen had the biggest arm based on velocity score. What was surprising to many was the fact that Mayfield was 2nd behind him. 

Josh Allen registered the biggest arm in terms of velocity with a score of 63 Mayfield tied what was the high at the time of 60. To get to my point I want you guys to watch one play from each of these guys that I have set up below.

This is what Josh Allen can do with a football. This is unreal. 

 

If I were to ask you the reader "Could Mayfield make this throw". What would be your answer? 

 

This is what Mayfield can do with a football. 

 

Baker Mayfield's arm is unreal. Teams sleeping on this kid because of height is making a mistake. 

[Villain The Foe]

39 minutes ago, Dcronin said:

Well I think OP is saying there is a PERCEPTION that it matters, but it really doesn't - in terms of batted passes.

But there are other things to consider, such as where on the field can shorter QBs see/throw. One post recently talked about Tyrod Taylor, because of his height, having more trouble up the crowded middle, and thus making more of his throws to the outside.

I'd like to see some math on that.

As far as Mayfield vs Rosen, I am increasingly torn as to who I like better, and am okay with either. I bet Rosen is gone by #3.

I do not see a prick in Mayfield. Not saying I want to hang out with the guy, but I just see a fiery competitor who would be a friggin' blast to play with. (That's who Dede Westbrook he is too.)

DC

Im trying to confirm this via Pff or something. But I just came across a redit feed that stated that "Baker Mayfield had just 5 batted passes in his 3 years starting in Oklahoma". In comparison, Josh Rosen had 10 batted balls in 2017 alone. 

I can only confirm from the position of seeing his last 2 years at OU the only time that I could remember him having batted footballs was in the Ohio State game this year. And I think I remember that because it was my first time actually seeing it happen. 

[peebag]

53 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Mayfield is 6'1, Rodgers is 6'2

Are we really to believe 1 inch will handicap this guy's potential? 

How many passes did he have batted down at the Senior Bowl?

[Villain The Foe]

7 minutes ago, peebag said:

How many passes did he have batted down at the Senior Bowl?

One from Marcus Davenport. 

[32EBoozer]

18 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

And some knucklehead accused Mayfield of NOT being an athlete because he ran a 4.75!!!  

Incredible VISION... that's what stands out to me most and also how he's directing his receivers where to run after his protection breaks down. On top of that , his accuracy on the run reminds me a lot of Aaron Rodgers.

 

I'm hooked! This kid over Rosen! Two weeks ago I would have said you are crazy, but the more film I see of the two, the more I'm all in on Mayfield ( and not in a gay way @T0mShane )

18 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

 

Josh Allen is the tallest of the top 4 guys. We all knew about his big arm and boy was Josh showing off his arm and overall height at the Combine/Pro day. It wasnt a surprise when Josh Allen had the biggest arm based on velocity score. What was surprising to many was the fact that Mayfield was 2nd behind him. 

Josh Allen registered the biggest arm in terms of velocity with a score of 63 Mayfield tied what was the high at the time of 60. To get to my point I want you guys to watch one play from each of these guys that I have set up below.

This is what Josh Allen can do with a football. This is unreal. 

 

If I were to ask you the reader "Could Mayfield make this throw". What would be your answer? 

 

This is what Mayfield can do with a football. 

 

Baker Mayfield's arm is unreal. Teams sleeping on this kid because of height is making a mistake. 

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

I don't  think batted balls is the only issue for a short QB. How many times has Russell Wilson had a slant open, but the taller lineman blocked his vision so he was forced to scramble to make a play. 

Anyone that passes on Mayfield solely because of his height is a fool, but it's a factor. Just like Allen's accuracy, Rosen's attitude and Darnold's turnover issues.  It's not ideal to have a short-ish QB, it's also not ideal to have a QB who already has a police video of himself getting tackled by cops.  

For all anyone knows, the Jets/Browns/Bills all think Mayfield is the #1 QB prospect. Nothing would surprise me at this point. 

[GreenFish]

You probably have to factor in arm angle and all that stuff. Really it's not just a players height but how high the ball is off the floor at the time of release. But let's be honest, it doesn't really matter. All it does is cause these guys who are 6'2" and under to drop in the draft or go undrafted and never get their shot. All because someone designed a prototypical QB to be 6'4" even though some of the greats are under 6'2". And no Steve Young... you my friend are at best 6'0".

[Villain The Foe]

10 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Incredible VISION... that's what stands out to me most and also how he's directing his receivers where to run after his protection breaks down. On top of that , his accuracy on the run reminds me a lot of Aaron Rodgers.

 

I'm hooked! This kid over Rosen! Two weeks ago I would have said you are crazy, but the more film I see of the two, the more I'm all in on Mayfield ( and not in a gay way @T0mShane )

 

I agree. We dont even have to make it difficult for Mayfield. All of this "pro style and under center" is for the birds. Put Mayfield in shotgun and tell him to win football games. 

When folks seen that pass from Josh Allen the first thing that many folks would say is "Only a guy with that size and arm can make that throw". Then here comes Baker Mayfield...and not only did he make a similar throw but it was to the sideline. One of the best throws in all of football is that "sideline cheese".

 

Speaking of Aaron Rodgers...

 

 

[Larz]

Bates will have to design an offense for whoever they pick 

If bates tries to force the player to learn a specific system regardless of ability we are ****ed no matter what 

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Larz said:

Bates will have to design an offense for whoever they pick 

If bates tries to force the player to learn a specific system regardless of ability we are ****ed no matter what 

Thank you. 

This is why I said all of this "pro style, west coast, under center" talk is irrelevant. The Panthers didnt draft Cam Newton and then put him in a pro style offense, hell no they didnt. They gave him bootlegs in order for him to read on half of the field. They gave him reads on his route combinations so depending on what a particular defender does during his bootleg he'll know who to throw it to. They gave him triple option designs, they gave him designed QB runs...etc. 

By the 5th year in the league he was the MVP and playing in the Superbowl, all without trying to make him a "pro style" quarterback. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

It wasnt a surprise when Josh Allen had the biggest arm based on velocity score. What was surprising to many was the fact that Mayfield was 2nd behind him.  

How is this velocity score arrived at?

50 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Im trying to confirm this via Pff or something. But I just came across a redit feed that stated that "Baker Mayfield had just 5 batted passes in his 3 years starting in Oklahoma". In comparison, Josh Rosen had 10 batted balls in 2017 alone. 

I can only confirm from the position of seeing his last 2 years at OU the only time that I could remember him having batted footballs was in the Ohio State game this year. And I think I remember that because it was my first time actually seeing it happen. 

Not sure about the rest of his career, but it happened twice against Ohio State.

[JohnnyLV]

37 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I don't  think batted balls is the only issue for a short QB. How many times has Russell Wilson had a slant open, but the taller lineman blocked his vision so he was forced to scramble to make a play. 

Anyone that passes on Mayfield solely because of his height is a fool, but it's a factor. Just like Allen's accuracy, Rosen's attitude and Darnold's turnover issues.  It's not ideal to have a short-ish QB, it's also not ideal to have a QB who already has a police video of himself getting tackled by cops.  

For all anyone knows, the Jets/Browns/Bills all think Mayfield is the #1 QB prospect. Nothing would surprise me at this point. 

The concept that ANY QB can see over an offensive lineman in the NFL is patently ludicrous, to the point it should be an urban myth. The average guard, tackle, or center in the NFL in 2015 is 6-foot-5, 312 pounds. Lets assume we want to see the TOP of the helmet of a receiver that is 10 yards down the field. Lets say you can see it at a 10 degree angle which is probably too flat anyway, well you would need to be 5.5 inches taller than the OL in your way. (Angle between ground and eyes is 90, viewing angle is 10 (80 to ground), length is 360 inches). Which means to see the receiver you have to be 6'10.5 inches. "Seeing over" an OL head is utter nonsense.

[SpartanJet]

Hey another Mayfield thread neat...

Stats can be made to say anything, I could counter and count the SB's won by QB's >= 6'3" in the past 20 years.  It seems about the same level of validation since you are comparing batted passes without taking into account the skill level of the offensive line. 

Mayfield played behind a stud O-line on a playoff level team in a conference that doesn't believe in Defense.  Rosen and Allen did not.

[Sonny Werblin]

Mason Fine, University of North Texas is maybe 5'10" on a good day. He is enering his true junior year, and if he continues to improve he may very well lead the nation in passing his senior season (2019). He was a two time Oklahoma high school player of the year and no D1 school  except UNT offered him a scholarship. He plays in an air raid offense and is tough as nails. Look up the hit he willingly took against a blitz in the game against UTSA to deliver the winning TD pass to his hot read on the final play of the game. The kid has all the skills you look for in a QB, except he's short, very short. I am anxious to see what the NFL evaluators do with him. Will his lack of height DQ him from being drafted at all. Or will he be graded as a 4th round pick or later. 

I truly believe that Mayfield's success or failure will be the greatest barometer of how Fine is viewed in 2 years. I personally do not believe lack of height to be a disqualifying factor. The NFL missed out on a lot of exciting years from Doug Flutie simply because people chose to give height greater value than on field play.

[The Crusher]

I would guess anyone who plays or played against J.J. Watt would have an increase in the batted balls.

[Villain The Foe]

53 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

How is this velocity score arrived at?

I have no idea. We've used these numbers to measure the velocity of rookie qb's for years though. 

 

[NYs Stepchild]

Unless you're 6'8 you can't see over linemen. 

Try standing 5 feet away from someone even 4 inches shorter than you and try to see something 6 foot high, 20 yards away, over his head.

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, JETSfaninNE said:

Lots of height talk with the rumors flying about Baker at 3.  Found this article interesting when I read it yesterday. This is some seriously heavy math, but the conclusion is very interesting.  This is mainly about batted passes, not necessarily about the vision and passing lanes.  Any Math majors want to take a stab at it, does this make sense? 

 

Obviously, the posts i'm referring to are all based on Baker Mayfield. I'm of the belief that the height filter for quarterbacks occurs when they enter college, not when they move to the NFL (at that point, it's a skill filter that removes them) so I decided to do some quick tests on batted passes data. This data isn't conclusive, but it'll reveal some information about this batted passes issue everyone seems to bring up.

Where's the data from?

Got access to PFF's premium stats again, so i'm using their batted passes stats. I'm testing a players batted passes in year N vs batted passes in year N+1 (which will tell you how much of the trait of getting your passes batted down is intrinsic to the player) as well as attempts per batted basses year N vs attempts per batted passes year N+1, to check if the rate is stable.

You'll see two sets of testing, one against all QBs with at least 25% of their teams snaps from 2013-2017, and one for all QBs 6'2 or shorter.

All QB regressions:

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Essentially, the amount of batted passes a player has from the next year is only 10% explained (R² of .10) by the batted passes from the previous year. So it's not very meaningful for QBs across all heights, and batted passes would seemingly be a weak intrinsic trait for a player. *To make this even clearer, it means that 90% of the batted passes volume in year N+1 is explained by forces outside of the QBs own batted passes in year N.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

This one is even worse for year to year stability, the rate of batted passes is pretty much completely unstable.

QBs 6'2 and under

Here's the raw dataset, so you can see which QBs were in this.

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Take a look at that straight line. When you do QBs under 6'2, the volume of batted passes is actually even worse for stability year to year. This could almost be considered random. It's counter-intuitive considering most people would believe that the shorter QBs would be more prone to getting their passes batted, but that's what the numbers would tell you. Could it be a case of elite QBs like Rodgers and Brees carrying most of the workload? Maybe.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

And the rate year to year stability is even worse.

QBs 6'2 and under without Brees/Rodgers

Our sample set becomes very small here, but here's the raw look.

Batted passes year N ~ Batted passes year N+1

Even without the two elite quarterbacks, the year to year stability is weak. Last year's batted passes only explains 2% of the variance of next years batted passes. Which means about 98% of the explanation for a QB under 6'2's batted passes that are not Rodgers/Brees, comes from outside that QBs own skills.

Batted Passes Per Attempt Year N ~ Batted passes per attempt year N+1

This is the strongest number we can get for the rate, but it's still peaking at 1% explaination of the variance year to year. Completely unstable.

Height vs BP

So we can take all the QBs and the sum of all their batted passes, as well as the total rate they've had of batted passes- and see if their height is in any way correlated/predictive for either one. The answer is no.

Charts:

Battled Passes Volume vs Height

Batted Passes Rate vs Height

Graphs:

Batted Passes Volume vs Height

Batted Passes Rate vs Height

Essentially, the two have extremely weak correlation and height is not predictive of either batted passes by volume or rate.

Conclusion

Height doesn't matter, probably. This isn't a conclusive study since you can only test players who have actually played and have played at least 2 consecutive seasons, but Height probably doesn't matter. Neither does having your passes batted. By the numbers here, the amount of batted passes year to year seems more stable when you're taller than when you're shorter. It suggests there's nothing intrinsic about having your passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.

Anyway, let me know if there's anything you want to know related to this.

 

Source

I think you did chi-square wrong and forgot to square the inverse of the mean, or something.

[Jetsplayer21]

46 minutes ago, SpartanJet said:

Hey another Mayfield thread neat...

Stats can be made to say anything, I could counter and count the SB's won by QB's >= 6'3" in the past 20 years.  It seems about the same level of validation since you are comparing batted passes without taking into account the skill level of the offensive line. 

Mayfield played behind a stud O-line on a playoff level team in a conference that doesn't believe in Defense.  Rosen and Allen did not.

Yes Rosen is bit of statue behind Oline. Great pocket qb though. Why he got knocked around so much. He would get plenty more of that playing behind 1 of the worst Olines in NFL if he came to jets. Why I’m leaning mayfield over Rosen. He gets rid of the ball quick, he reads quick, and he can move around the pocket. It’s also tougher to catch the little guy ?

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

How many times has Russell Wilson had a slant open, but the taller lineman blocked his vision so he was forced to scramble to make a play. 

Yes, sometimes I wonder if Russel would make the Super Hall Of Fame instead of just the Regular Hall of Fame if he could only squeeze off those slant passes. 

[Untouchable]

3 hours ago, Paradis said:

Mayfield is 6'1, Rodgers is 6'2

Are we really to believe 1 inch will handicap this guy's potential? 

Completely handicap his potential at the next level? No, there have certainly been a handful of exceptions. Keyword...handful.

But is it a concern? You bet your ass it is.

I would assume there’s a reason why 6’2 has been considered the cutoff for acceptable QB height in the NFL for decades.

I don’t hate Mayfield and wouldn’t be pissed at all if we take him.

But name me a sub-6’2 QB who went in the Top 5 of the draft during the modern Superbowl era besides Vick...

And that was simply because the dude came equipped with 4.3 speed and a f*cking howitzer attached to his left shoulder. Neither of which Mayfield possesses.

And would anyone sign up for a young Mike Vick as the Jets QB for the next 10+ years? I sure as hell wouldn’t. And I’m about as big of a Hokies fan as you’ll find.

Whether you love him or not, taking a guy like Mayfield at #3 would be completely unprecedented...but I still wouldn’t plant a flag in the ground and be firmly against it. 

[Patriot Killa]

@T0mShane please find me your post about Fitzpatrick, the QB and the Peach. Please.

 

i have a friend I want to show the post to.??

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

@T0mShane please find me your post about Fitzpatrick, the QB and the Peach. Please.

 

i have a friend I want to show the post to.??

What kind of people do you hang around with

[Patriot Killa]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What kind of people do you hang around with

I said I was tired of waiting on the draft..just want to get our QB and get things started

he goes Plot twist.. y’all take a linebacker.

i said plot twist..why tf didn’t you say safety?

 

and I just felt like I needed the Peach story

[T0mShane]

10 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I said I was tired of waiting on the draft..just want to get our QB and get things started

he goes Plot twist.. y’all take a linebacker.

i said plot twist..why tf didn’t you say safety?

 

and I just felt like I needed the Peach story

I’m not picking on you at all. I’ve just always found it best to deny any knowledge of the existence of this website IRL. 

[Patriot Killa]

Just now, T0mShane said:

I’m not picking on you at all. I’ve just always found it best to deny any knowledge of the existence of this website IRL. 

LOL..you arent wrong.

[Patriot Killa]

18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’m not picking on you at all. I’ve just always found it best to deny any knowledge of the existence of this website IRL. 

But anyway home skillet, I need that post.? 

do you remember what the thread even was? I’ll look it up, you don’t even have to. I’m thirsty to show and tell.

holy sh*t I f-n found it!!!