Josh Rosen: Ceiling/Floor

[Patriot Killa]

https://www.ganggreennation.com/platform/amp/2018/4/16/17237964/2018-nfl-draft-ceilings-and-floors-josh-rosen-new-york-jets-quarterback-scouting

2018 NFL Draft Ceilings and Floors: Josh Rosen

With under two weeks to go until the NFL draftand the Jets preparing to make their most paramount selection since Mark Sanchez, let’s put the top quarterback prospects under the microscope again. Leading up to the draft, I’ll try and pin a reasonable ceiling and floor for each of the consensus top five quarterback prospects. We’ll start with Josh Rosen.

First off, what is a “ceiling” and what is a “floor?” I see a ceiling as the realistic best-case vision a team has for a player in the distant future when his career is complete; the version of that player a team believes it can mold in its culture and scheme with proper time and coaching plus the necessary work ethic from the player. We’ll find a comparable player who closely matches the ideal best version of the prospect, and vise versa.

JOSH ROSEN

Ceiling: Peyton Manning

Josh Rosen is the best pocket passer in this draft, bar none. He showcases incredible patience and poise in the pocket, staying home as long as possible while possessing a great sense for the rush and the ability to throw coolly and calmly under pressure.

Off the field, Rosen has made headlines for his inquisitive personality and unique sense of self-confidence. He acknowledges his wealthy background compared to his peers and is very vocal with his honest thoughts on any question posed to him. His “coachability” and leadership are among the question marks posed in many of his scouting reports, but it seems from those who know him best and from his intelligent demeanor that Rosen is far from a malcontent and more of an, as mentioned earlier, inquisitive young player who will not settle for “yes sir” and seek to question and gain as much knowledge as possible.

I don’t want to put too much stock into a produced documentary video, but this workout with Aaron Rodgers is really interesting and I feel gives us a look into the personality that has polarized evaluators.

That will brush some the wrong way, but a team willing to buy into that personality could mold something great with that confidence and meticulous nature.

All of that reminds me of Peyton Manning. A tall, disciplined pocket passer with a strong leadership style and the willingness to question. Manning was always known for his borderline insanity in preparation and was never a classic, cliche leader. Rosen strikes the same chord.

In addition, Rosen is similar to Manning in his entering the NFL from a “privileged” background. Not so much as a talented-by-blood quarterback, but as someone who comes from a much more privileged family than his peers - and acknowledges it.

 ‘OK, my family isn’t, like, stupid wealthy. But I’m coming from a place where if football doesn’t work out, I don’t have to work at McDonald’s.’

They match-up physically as well.

If Rosen can stay healthy and a locker room can buy into his personality, he has all the talent to be the worldly pocket passer Peyton was as an absolute best case. Even if he doesn’t hit that pinnacle, a more realistic but still successful comparison would be the younger Manning, Eli, who also is a pocket passer with very similar measurables but didn’t quite hit the same level of dominance as Peyton.

Floor: Sam Bradford

Injuries are a legitimate question for Josh Rosen. Before college, he suffered a shoulder injury while playing tennis that ended his tennis career. He was limited to six games in his sophomore year because of another shoulder injury. He then missed the Cactus Bowl in his junior year due to a concussion.

When you mention “injuries” and “quarterback” in the same sentence, most people’s first thought is Sam Bradford. Bradford had all the tools to be a number one pick but has seen his timeline thrown off by injuries. In the rare time he’s been on the field (80 of 128 possible career games, 63%), his ceiling has been “game manager.” Bradford was terribly inefficient to start his career in St. Louis, but has gotten better with age, finding decent success in Philadelphia and Minnesota. His completion percentage over the last three seasons is a scorching 68.6%, to go with 42 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. As a Viking, he is 9-8 in 17 starts with a 101.1 quarterback rating.

If injuries continue to bug Rosen, I could see him having a Bradford-esque career in which he never finds a permanent home or nears Pro Bowl levels, but finds a way to stay in the league with his pocket ability and accuracy.

I think he is strong enough in those two areas to at the very least least stick as a lower-tier starter as long as his injuries do not become career-threatening.

[Joe W. Namath]

The ceiling is the roof.

[Bleedin Green]

There's definitely a lower floor than Bradford, and that's not just specific to Rosen, but literally any prospect in league history.  Even if he is considered to be more of a "safe bet" than most at the position, there are plenty of those that have still turned out to be colossal busts.

If we're giving the benefit of the doubt and dismissing the discussion of being a bust for any of these guys, I think the more concerning floor is that he could call it a career much younger than most, especially if he were to have injury problems.  Young retirement is becoming more prevalent in the NFL, and I can't blame the players for that at all, but you still don't want that for your own team, and some seem to think that Rosen has a higher chance of being one of those guys.  Now I don't think a team should be making their decisions based on that possibility, but if you're talking about the floor, a short career would certainly be it.

[Sarge4Tide]

Let's do this!

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

There's definitely a lower floor than Bradford, and that's not just specific to Rosen, but literally any prospect in league history.  Even if he is considered to be more of a "safe bet" than most at the position, there are plenty of those that have still turned out to be colossal busts.

If we're giving the benefit of the doubt and dismissing the discussion of being a bust for any of these guys, I think the more concerning floor is that he could call it a career much younger than most, especially if he were to have injury problems.  Young retirement is becoming more prevalent in the NFL, and I can't blame the players for that at all, but you still don't want that for your own team, and some seem to think that Rosen has a higher chance of being one of those guys.  Now I don't think a team should be making their decisions based on that possibility, but if you're talking about the floor, a short career would certainly be it.

Agreed.  My ceiling/floor/reality was Peyton Manning/Matt Leinart/Matt Ryan.

I like mine better. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

No way is his floor Sam Bradford. Since we're talking floors and ceilings, is it ok that I say Bradford is his counter top??

Ceiling: Payton Manning

Counter top: Sam Bradford

Floor: Kevin Kolb

[Kleckineau]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Agreed.  My ceiling/floor/reality was Peyton Manning/Matt Leinart/Matt Ryan.

I like mine better. 

Nobody will be Peyton ever.

If the NYJ take Rosen and he carves out a long productive career ( not a lightning in a bottle career like Joe N) like Matt Ryan has and can help them contend yearly and win a title along the way who wouldnt be happy?

[New York Mick]

Bradford is one hell of a floor. They compared him to a top five QB of all time and a rookie of the year.

Did his mom write this?

[Warfish]

Ceiling:  Nobel Peace Prize for bringing Peace to the Middle East, Curing Cancer, and Solving Pi to a trillion digits.

Floor:  Literally Hitler, creates and executes the Final Solution to the Jets Fan Question

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Agreed.  My ceiling/floor/reality was Peyton Manning/Matt Leinart/Matt Ryan.

I like mine better. 

If "reality" is Matt Ryan then where do I sign?

[Patriot Killa]

57 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

No way is his floor Sam Bradford. Since we're talking floors and ceilings, is it ok that I say Bradford is his counter top??

Ceiling: Payton Manning

Counter top: Sam Bradford

Floor: Kevin Kolb

Woah, a Josh Allen fan is saying Rosen’s floor is Kevin Kolb......

That’s pretty hilarious.

[Pcola]

Sure I get the Bradford comparisons but I do believe Rosen missing the Bowl game was precautionary because the HC has already been fired and it could only hurt his stock.

I think a healthy Rosen worst case scenario is Kirk Cousins.  Like he did at UCLA, he will throw for a ton of yards.  So I see a guy that could arguably put up 3800-26-12 every year.  Whether that is enough to make it to the playoffs and beyond, will be up to Todd Bowles and his defense.

Best case scenario, he is so dominate that he transcends the organization by forcing teams to be one dimensional in trying to keep up.

Every year, experts, media, and fans tear these kids down.  Happened with Wentz because he went to ND St.  Happened to Goff.  Winston, Mariota.  Last year it wasn’t as bad because no one was really talking about Trubisky, Watson, or Mahomes as a top 5 pick in the draft.  Even on draft day, no one expected Trubisky to go 2.

This year has been exceptionally bad for these QBs because fans have been over analyzing these guys since the 2016 Bowl games.

Rosen is the cleanest, mechanically sound, super intelligent, and can throw a ball 75-80 yards.  Is is squeaky clean off the field.  

He is a better prospect than Darnold because of the throwing motion and better than Mayfield and Darnold because he does everything from inside the pocket.  Neither Darnold or Mayfield are going to become elite QBs until they can be effective inside the pocket.  Most of Darnold’s big plays are when he is improvising and rolling out.  Mayfield was very successful at OK but not sure how that will translate to the size and speed of NFL defenses.

If Rosen is available, we need to be sprinting up with the card to take him.  There will be several devastated teams once we do.

[Thai Jet]

9 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Woah, a Josh Allen fan is saying Rosen’s floor is Kevin Kolb......

That’s pretty hilarious.

Time will tell now won't it ?  You might not be laughing 3 years down the road.

[Thai Jet]

11 minutes ago, Pcola said:

If Rosen is available, we need to be sprinting up with the card to take him.  There will be several devastated teams once we do.

[Larz]

Big ben

Browning Nagle 

[Augustiniak]

49 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Sure I get the Bradford comparisons but I do believe Rosen missing the Bowl game was precautionary because the HC has already been fired and it could only hurt his stock.

I think a healthy Rosen worst case scenario is Kirk Cousins.  Like he did at UCLA, he will throw for a ton of yards.  So I see a guy that could arguably put up 3800-26-12 every year.  Whether that is enough to make it to the playoffs and beyond, will be up to Todd Bowles and his defense.

Best case scenario, he is so dominate that he transcends the organization by forcing teams to be one dimensional in trying to keep up.

Every year, experts, media, and fans tear these kids down.  Happened with Wentz because he went to ND St.  Happened to Goff.  Winston, Mariota.  Last year it wasn’t as bad because no one was really talking about Trubisky, Watson, or Mahomes as a top 5 pick in the draft.  Even on draft day, no one expected Trubisky to go 2.

This year has been exceptionally bad for these QBs because fans have been over analyzing these guys since the 2016 Bowl games.

Rosen is the cleanest, mechanically sound, super intelligent, and can throw a ball 75-80 yards.  Is is squeaky clean off the field.  

He is a better prospect than Darnold because of the throwing motion and better than Mayfield and Darnold because he does everything from inside the pocket.  Neither Darnold or Mayfield are going to become elite QBs until they can be effective inside the pocket.  Most of Darnold’s big plays are when he is improvising and rolling out.  Mayfield was very successful at OK but not sure how that will translate to the size and speed of NFL defenses.

If Rosen is available, we need to be sprinting up with the card to take him.  There will be several devastated teams once we do.

rosen isn't better at everything.  his arm is nfl average, his mobility is probably below average, his durability is eh at best so far.  

in the end we're getting rosen or mayfield, so we'll have to be happy with the flaws of either.

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If "reality" is Matt Ryan then where do I sign?

Matt Ryan is the biggest scam I can remember outside of may Maybe Flynn. 

Matt has not once elevated his game or the put the team on his back. Michael Turner and Devonta Freeman have made that guy. He's Matt Schaub, with a few more bells and whistles. 

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Matt Ryan is the biggest scam I can remember outside of may Maybe Flynn. 

Matt has not once elevated his game or the put the team on his back. Michael Turner and Devonta Freeman have made that guy. He's Matt Schaub, with a few more bells and whistles. 

I disagree with this.

[Pcola]

3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

rosen isn't better at everything.  his arm is nfl average, his mobility is probably below average, his durability is eh at best so far.  

in the end we're getting rosen or mayfield, so we'll have to be happy with the flaws of either.

I see your point but Rosen’s arm is strong enough to make every throw in the NFL.  He did miss 8 games in his 3 years at UCLA.  Allen missed 12 games during his 3 years at WY but we are supposed to think that Rosen is more injury prone?

And the lack of mobility only limits the creativity of the OC.  At the same time, it also reduces the risk of injury to the QB.  The best QBs of all time were statues, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Marino.  So I honestly don’t think that is a knock on Rosen.  He makes more plays from the pocket than any QB in this draft.  Because he can.

Today, there is talk about making Carson Wentz change the way he plays.  When Mariota came out, all the rave was can he be a pocket passer.  Now all of a sudden, it’s a negative for a guy that as good or better than both of those guys.  

Jeremiah rankedbthe top QB prospects over the past three drafts and Rosen was behind only Darnold and Wentz.

[GreenFish]

Ceiling: A more athletic Tom Brady

Floor: Alex Van Pelt
 

There's no doubt in my mind that Rosen's career will fit somewhere in between those two players. 

[Augustiniak]

37 minutes ago, Pcola said:

I see your point but Rosen’s arm is strong enough to make every throw in the NFL.  He did miss 8 games in his 3 years at UCLA.  Allen missed 12 games during his 3 years at WY but we are supposed to think that Rosen is more injury prone?

And the lack of mobility only limits the creativity of the OC.  At the same time, it also reduces the risk of injury to the QB.  The best QBs of all time were statues, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Marino.  So I honestly don’t think that is a knock on Rosen.  He makes more plays from the pocket than any QB in this draft.  Because he can.

Today, there is talk about making Carson Wentz change the way he plays.  When Mariota came out, all the rave was can he be a pocket passer.  Now all of a sudden, it’s a negative for a guy that as good or better than both of those guys.  

Jeremiah rankedbthe top QB prospects over the past three drafts and Rosen was behind only Darnold and Wentz.

rosen seems like what you see is what you get, a boring pocket passer whose growth in the pros will be his willingness and ability to pick apart defenses, and that's fine.  you're not really improving his mobility or accuracy.  

gil brandt released his revised rankings of top players and rosen and mayfield are back to back.  i think this is how many scouts rate them.  truth, if all the qbs were the same height, mayfield would be drafted first.  he's the best pure qb when you factor in everything but height.  i think his upside is better than rosen.  i think mayfield, in the right scheme, is the next drew brees.  rosen seems like a throwback passer whose blindside needs to be protected all the time or else you're getting strip sacks and injuries.  rosen is good, mayfield is better, darnold should be good and could be great and allen is a huge risk and wouldn't it be great if cleveland took him first.

[#27TheDominator]

59 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Matt Ryan is the biggest scam I can remember outside of may Maybe Flynn. 

Matt has not once elevated his game or the put the team on his back. Michael Turner and Devonta Freeman have made that guy. He's Matt Schaub, with a few more bells and whistles. 

Besides everything else, in today's climate Matt Schaub is a $29+M a year player.  

[varjet]

Rosen is the ultimate challenge for Bowles and Co., both strategically and intellectually.

Not only will he be a questioning pain, but he really does not fit exactly into the offense that MacBowles has constructed.  They want their QBs a bit more mobile to make up for the lack of line, and to throw on the run.  MacBowlesBates will need to construct an offense around Rosen.  I think Mayfield fits into what they want to do with less work, but a much lower ceiling.

That is why MacBowles will jump at Mayfield!

[Augustiniak]

Just now, varjet said:

Rosen is the ultimate challenge for Bowles and Co., both strategically and intellectually.

Not only will he be a questioning pain, but he really does not fit exactly into the offense that MacBowles has constructed.  They want their QBs a bit more mobile to make up for the lack of line, and to throw on the run.  MacBowlesBates will need to construct an offense around Rosen.  I think Mayfield fits into what they want to do with less work, but a much lower ceiling.

That is why MacBowles will jump at Mayfield!

i do not understand why mayfield has a lower ceiling than rosen or darnold.  his arm, football iq, mobility and accuracy are as good if not better than these players.  upside is limited by skill set, not height, when you're talking about qbs over 6 feet.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Matt Ryan is the biggest scam I can remember outside of may Maybe Flynn. 

Matt has not once elevated his game or the put the team on his back. Michael Turner and Devonta Freeman have made that guy. He's Matt Schaub, with a few more bells and whistles. 

How did he do in the Superbowl against the Pats?  

How about the NFC title game that year?  44-21 win over GB

How about the divisional round game that year?  36-20 win over Seattle

[derp]

I’m a big fan of Rosen in a lot of ways, but what scares me the most about him is I think he’s probably the worst of the top four, even five quarterbacks outside of structure. I think if he’s cerebral enough that can be overcome, so it’s not a dealbreaker. Some of the best of all time win because they’re cerebral.

But when you combine that with durability questions, it does get a little scary. I’m mostly scarred after needing to surround Sanchez with all kinds of talent in order for him to have an opportunity to succeed. I’d be hyped if the Jets draft Rosen. Just hope he can stay healthy and elevate his supporting cast if they do. He’s not coming onto a stacked offense.

[Pcola]

28 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

rosen seems like what you see is what you get, a boring pocket passer whose growth in the pros will be his willingness and ability to pick apart defenses, and that's fine.  you're not really improving his mobility or accuracy.  

gil brandt released his revised rankings of top players and rosen and mayfield are back to back.  i think this is how many scouts rate them.  truth, if all the qbs were the same height, mayfield would be drafted first.  he's the best pure qb when you factor in everything but height.  i think his upside is better than rosen.  i think mayfield, in the right scheme, is the next drew brees.  rosen seems like a throwback passer whose blindside needs to be protected all the time or else you're getting strip sacks and injuries.  rosen is good, mayfield is better, darnold should be good and could be great and allen is a huge risk and wouldn't it be great if cleveland took him first.

I have to agree with you on everything.  And I can certainly get behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield.  I just think there are some trashing Rosen like he is a terrible QB prospect when in fact he is elite.  

Rosen has six 300-yard + games as a freshman.  Averaged 319 his sophomore season and last year averaged 362 yards per game (if you exclude the Wash game where he missed the entire second half.)

While he didn’t put up Mayfield type of numbers, for the schedule he played, he has proven that he is going to be successful at the next level.  Successful QB play is not something we have seen since the early Chad days.  Yes Fitz and McCown have had one year wonder seasons but it would be nice to draft a QB and not have to worry about the position for at least a decade.

[Joejet]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

Big ben

Browning Nagle 

I think this fits Allen better.

[Augustiniak]

12 minutes ago, Pcola said:

I have to agree with you on everything.  And I can certainly get behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield.  I just think there are some trashing Rosen like he is a terrible QB prospect when in fact he is elite.  

Rosen has six 300-yard + games as a freshman.  Averaged 319 his sophomore season and last year averaged 362 yards per game (if you exclude the Wash game where he missed the entire second half.)

While he didn’t put up Mayfield type of numbers, for the schedule he played, he has proven that he is going to be successful at the next level.  Successful QB play is not something we have seen since the early Chad days.  Yes Fitz and McCown have had one year wonder seasons but it would be nice to draft a QB and not have to worry about the position for at least a decade.

the problem with this draft class is that since none of the qbs are clearly ahead of the others, the agenda is to find more flaws in them rather than figure out how they're best utilized.  plus you don't have a lot of elite prospects after the qbs, nelson, chubb and barkley.  wrs and LTs are weak, there is only one really good pass rusher and cbs are also eh.  so the focus has really landed on these qbs and their flaws, unfortunately.

[Larz]

13 minutes ago, Joejet said:

I think this fits Allen better.

Haha I got my Josh's crossed 

[MaxAF]

2 hours ago, varjet said:

Rosen is the ultimate challenge for Bowles and Co., both strategically and intellectually.

Not only will he be a questioning pain, but he really does not fit exactly into the offense that MacBowles has constructed.  They want their QBs a bit more mobile to make up for the lack of line, and to throw on the run.  MacBowlesBates will need to construct an offense around Rosen.  I think Mayfield fits into what they want to do with less work, but a much lower ceiling.

That is why MacBowles will jump at Mayfield!

Though I’m not a big Mayfield guy this really makes the most sense in the direction the Jets offense seems to be going.

[bitonti]

Josh Rosen floor is Chris Borland

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app

[bitonti]

Double

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How did he do in the Superbowl against the Pats?  

How about the NFC title game that year?  44-21 win over GB

How about the divisional round game that year?  36-20 win over Seattle

i don't care what the stats say bro. Stats said Fitzpatrick was lethal too. 

I've watched Ryan. Hes been as good as his running game. Remember those years between Turner and Freeman? Yea me neither. 

[Paradis]

5 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

I disagree with this.

what, that Ryan is average? 

He is. By average - keep in mind, we're talking about NFL QBs... so that's not too shabby. We should aspire much higher. Much higher.