Josh Allen struggles under pressure, needs patient team

[LAD_Brooklyn]

As has been well documented, in the latest instance by Sean Payton in my Monday column, this is a potentially rich but certainly flawed group of quarterbacks in the first round this year. Let’s include Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph as well, because he could go late in the first round to a quarterback-needy team (New England? New Orleans? Jacksonville?) that could view Rudolph as too reliable to last far into round two.

It’s been reported far and wide that Josh Allen of Wyoming could be the first overall pick, to Cleveland. The Browns like him. With ex-Bill Tyrod Taylor in the house, they seem set on whoever they draft having 2018 as an NFL redshirt year, which is probably the smart way to go for a franchise that has rushed too many passers, from Tim Couch to DeShone Kizer, into action. Allen, it would seem, would desperately need that redshirt year.

When NFL teams have scouted Allen, they’ve noticed how Allen seemed to be under pressure far more than any of the other five first-round candidates. And they’ve noticed how poorly he responded to that pressure. It’s not just the 56.3 career completion percentage that bothers teams; it’s how he has responded to pressure. And, as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently.

So I asked analytics service Pro Football Focus, which also studies college players in preparation for the draft, to do a workup on whether Allen indeed was pressured significantly more than the other quarterbacks in the draft, and how he performed under pressure. The answers were rather startling.

Allen under pressure: Of the 47 draft-eligible quarterbacks with 175 or more dropbacks in 2017, PFF found that Allen was the fifth-most-pressured quarterback, at 41 percent of his pass drops. Of the other top prospects, Lamar Jackson was pressured 36 percent of the time, Sam Darnold 31 percent, Josh Rosen 29 percent, Baker Mayfield 28 percent and Rudolph 23 percent. Clearly, Allen’s performance should have been affected by pressure more than the other quarterbacks.

Allen’s performance under pressure: not good. According to Pro Football Focus numbers, you can see Allen struggles against pressure. Look at Allen versus the field in NCAA passer rating (more liberal than the NFL rating, but for comparison sake, I’m using the NCAA standard) to see the comparison:

Allen is a dedicated guy scouts and coaches and GMs have grown to love in the pre-draft process. A California farm kid who grew up working the land before he ever had a thought of being a big-time quarterback, he knows the value of hard work. There are some scouts and coaches who look at Allen and see Ben Roethlisberger, a tree trunk of a guy with a big arm and athletic skills. All that is good.

But there’s the reality of Allen’s rawness too. These numbers show it. He has difficulty taking the snap, knowing his alternatives depending on the rush he faces, and executing successfully. That’s not going to get fixed in one training camp. Whoever picks Allen, he’s going to need a strong, unwavering, patient plan to get him ready for opening day 2019. He might progress faster than that, but let’s say Cleveland picks him. The Browns aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year. Isn’t it in their best interests to tutor Allen with smart football people, to give him consistent chances in practices through the season? Training. Coaching. Learning. A few quarterbacks in our lifetime—David Carr most notably—have left football before their time because they played too much too soon. Let Allen’s college numbers at Wyoming, and football history, be a lesson to the team that chooses him to be its quarterback of the future.

 

 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

This is very telling considering his pass attempts were nearly half of Rosen's and Darnold's. This was also not an issue back in 2016 season. This further explain the theory of an support case at the skill position. When Tanner Gentry, Jake Maulhardt and Jacob Hollister (2016 leading WRs) left, the new bloods were just terrible at separating. That's one thing the article should have brought up as it would lead one to believe it was the O-line.

[56mehl56]

3 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

This is very telling considering his pass attempts were nearly half of Rosen's and Darnold's. This was also not an issue back in 2016 season. This further explain the theory of an support case at the skill position. When Tanner Gentry, Jake Maulhardt and Jacob Hollister (2016 leading WRs) left, the new bloods were just terrible at separating. That's one thing the article should have brought up as it would lead one to believe it was the O-line.

Its a combination of both. Anyone who viewed game film or watched Wyoming games knows Allen had virtually no time to throw and no one to throw to when he was getting blitzed. Yet the narrative remains he's bad under pressure. Its why you can't take any of these prognosticators words as gospel as a large majority or lazy and really just pile on what other people have said.

For as bad as people want to portray Jets scouting and drafting, I'll rely on their evaluations over guys like Kiper , McShay and their ilk .

[JoJoTownsell1]

Allen defenders say that Wyoming's Oline was horrible and his WRs weren't very good. If you believe that, then it's not surprising that he would struggle when blitzed. 

Those that think Allen is the next Hack will obviously disagree. 

This doesn't really change anything in my mind. The question is whether you think Allen's numbers would be the same if he played in Oklahoma's offense with Oklahoma's O-line and WRs? Would the scheme/O-line protect him enough to allow him to complete a higher pct of passes? 

Geno Smith had crazy good numbers in college while Hack had bad numbers in college. Looking at college stats and making conclusions about QBs is never a good idea. You think it's a coincidence that two kids playing spread/QB friendly offenses in a conference that doesn't play defense are ranked 1/2?

[dbatesman]

He was only bad under pressure when the weather was bad

[Bruce Harper]

Don't know why we would consider drafting this guy.  I hope it's all smoke.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

1 minute ago, Bruce Harper said:

Don't know why we would consider drafting this guy.  I hope it's all smoke.

 

[PepPep]

13 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Its a combination of both. Anyone who viewed game film or watched Wyoming games knows Allen had virtually no time to throw and no one to throw to when he was getting blitzed. Yet the narrative remains he's bad under pressure. Its why you can't take any of these prognosticators words as gospel as a large majority or lazy and really just pile on what other people have said.

For as bad as people want to portray Jets scouting and drafting, I'll rely on their evaluations over guys like Kiper , McShay and their ilk .

Correct, which is also why you can't assume that Mayfield is good under pressure because, well, he is never under pressure- had the best O-line in college football and was always surrounded by weapons, a RB that can catch, and a coordinator that had him constantly rolling out. 

I actually think once in the NFL, Allen will be better under pressure than Mayfield. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

4 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Don't know why we would consider drafting this guy.  I hope it's all smoke.

I don't know why you think it's so unfathomable that the Jets may take a player that many think could go #1 overall. Perhaps it's because scouts see something you don't? 

Some of you are acting as if you are smarter than all the scouts when the reality is non of us have any idea which of these guys will be the "one." My favorite is Darnold. If he falls to us and we take Allen, I'd be a little annoyed but in the end I'd be happy we finally have a kid that has a legit chance at being our franchise QB. 

The most important thing for the Jets to do is end up with a franchise QB and not the QB that makes the fanbase happy for the days/weeks after the draft. 

[Bruce Harper]

16 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

 

I think it's a bad sign if your best game ever is in the Senior Bowl, where no one has ever blitzed and the defenses are vanilla.  The guy has great tools and looks spectacular on some plays so I get why he is intriguing.  I just don't think he is going to succeed in the NFL after his college career.

[jetsons]

16 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Correct, which is also why you can't assume that Mayfield is good under pressure because, well, he is never under pressure- had the best O-line in college football and was always surrounded by weapons, a RB that can catch, and a coordinator that had him constantly rolling out. 

I actually think once in the NFL, Allen will be better under pressure than Mayfield. 

 

[Bruce Harper]

14 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I don't know why you think it's so unfathomable that the Jets may take a player that many think could go #1 overall. Perhaps it's because scouts see something you don't? 

Some of you are acting as if you are smarter than all the scouts when the reality is non of us have any idea which of these guys will be the "one." My favorite is Darnold. If he falls to us and we take Allen, I'd be a little annoyed but in the end I'd be happy we finally have a kid that has a legit chance at being our franchise QB. 

The most important thing for the Jets to do is end up with a franchise QB and not the QB that makes the fanbase happy for the days/weeks after the draft. 

I will root like hell for whoever we will draft.  I've just seen this story before where someone's stock rises like crazy because they have great tools and have a great combine but not a great history of performance in college.  

[T0mShane]

It’s a good thing he’ll be going to a talent rich team who will have plenty of patience with him while he learns to develop; like Hackenberg with getting his left foot back which will fix everything 

[Bruce Harper]

20 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Correct, which is also why you can't assume that Mayfield is good under pressure because, well, he is never under pressure- had the best O-line in college football and was always surrounded by weapons, a RB that can catch, and a coordinator that had him constantly rolling out. 

I actually think once in the NFL, Allen will be better under pressure than Mayfield. 

Every Division 1 QB -- even the ones with good lines -- are under pressure.  You don't have to like the guy but the statistical analyses demonstrate that Mayfield was FAR better under pressure than Allen.  You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

[HessStation]

24 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

 

Not gonna lie. I love how Mayfield was jacked on the sideline and smacked him on the butt.

[Bruce Harper]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

It’s a good thing he’ll be going to a talent rich team who will have plenty of patience with him while he learns to develop; like Hackenberg with getting his left foot back which will fix everything 

That's another thing that drives me nuts.  You hear that over and over:  "He just has to clean up his mechanics a little bit."  How often does that happen?  And why do they wait till after college to do it?

[JoJoTownsell1]

17 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

I will root like hell for whoever we will draft.  I've just seen this story before where someone's stock rises like crazy because they have great tools and have a great combine but not a great history of performance in college.  

Agreed, but let's not forget that Allen was projected as a top 5 pick for over a year now. It's not like he was discovered at the combine. The combine, Bowl game and senior bowl performances just reinforced what many thought of him. 

[#27TheDominator]

Is the stat when pressured or when blitzed?  Those are not necessarily the same thing.

[Philc1]

53 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

 

Allen absolutely killed it playing against defenders  he will be seeing in the nfl 

[Philc1]

30 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

That's another think that drives me nuts.  You hear that over and over:  "He just has to clean up his mechanics a little bit."  How often does that happen?  And why do they wait till after college to do it?

Nothing wrong with Allen’s mechanics he forces some throws too hard on short routes that is actually correctable even in the nfl but Hack has poisoned the minds of many jets fans and our idiot GM and owner

[Paradis]

It's not Allen's fault that media/reckless scouting put his name into top 5 conversations. He should always have been a 2nd-3rd round guy who could sit behind a R'Berger, Dalton, Manning and be groomed. Instead he's getting set up to fail if he starts games his september IMO

[varjet]

5 minutes ago, Paradis said:

It's not Allen's fault that media/reckless scouting put his name into top 5 conversations. He should always have been a 2nd-3rd round guy who could sit behind a R'Berger, Dalton, Manning and be groomed. Instead he's getting set up to fail if he starts games his september IMO

Allen was always going to be a higher pick because his physical statistics are so incredible.  What QB who had the physical stats of Allen went lower than the 1st round in the last 10 years.  His right place is lower in the first round, not necessarily out of the first round.  That is the place for a better team, like the Steelers with Ben and the Ravens with Flacco, to develop him.  He is worth the chance there.  

[The Crimson King]

Well then he would fit in here quite well considering the immense patience that the NY media, Jets fans in general (and this board specifically) have

Yeesh

[56mehl56]

2 hours ago, dbatesman said:

He was only bad under pressure when the weather was bad

Or when your jokes were good - so otherwise never

[FidelioJet]

We’re back to the same old story of looking at stats with Allen. You have to look at how his skill set translates to the NFL.

Go and look at those same “pressure” plays and tell me how often Allen had an open receiver vs. Mayfield and the others.

There are just too many variables to simply look T stats.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Allen absolutely killed it playing against defenders  he will be seeing in the nfl 

Playing Rules

DEFENSE

Pass rush games are prohibited at all times. Only four rushers allowed, no 5-man pressures or blitzes from secondary permitted.

Coaches and Senior Bowl observers will be responsible for the defensive requirements.

Personnel

4-3 personnel

3-4 personnel

a. Substitution packages, i.e., dime, short-yardage or goal line packages, are not permitted at any time. However, teams are permitted to play three cornerbacks in a four-man secondary. 

b. A nickel package may be used when the offense has three wide receivers on the field. In this case, the defense may use a four-man front with five defensive backs.

Fronts

a. In Base, only an Under front will be permitted in both 4-3/3-4 schemes.

1. 4-3 UNDER, traditional lineup with strong-side linebacker over TE and remaining two linebackers in "box" and off-the-line of scrimmage. 

2. 3-4 UNDER, strong-side linebacker (Sam) aligns over TE, with two “box" linebackers off-the-line and weak-side linebacker reduced as the 4th rusher (not allowed to drop into pass coverage). 

b. Linebackers and defensive ends are not permitted to switch positions.

c. In Sub, only an EVEN front with four-down defensive linemen and the Center 
left uncovered will be permitted.

Pass Coverage

a. Zone 
1. Two-deep or Three-deep zone coverage only. 

2. Safety rotation to curl/flat only. In Base, Under/Cover-6 will be a zone call that allows the free safety to rotate to the weak-side of the offensive formation. In Sub, Even/Cover-3 will be a zone call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the strong-side of the offensive formation. No safeties are allowed to insert or switch coverage responsibility with the linebacker assigned to his side (no “buzz” rotation allowed).

3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped. 
 

b. Man-to-Man

1. Man coverage with a free safety only. Press technique is permitted. 

2. Safety rotation will mirror movement in zone coverages. In Base, Under/Cover-1 Weak will be a man call that allows the free safety to rotate to the open-side of the formation with the strong safety in the middle-of-the-field. In Sub, Even/Cover-1 Strong will be a man call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the closed-side of the formation with the free safety in the middle-of-the-field.

3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped.  

4. The safety that is not playing the middle one-third must have a specific man-to-man coverage assignment. He is only permitted to "free-up" if his man blocks.

https://www.seniorbowl.com/playing-rules.php

[56mehl56]

2 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Playing Rules

DEFENSE

Pass rush games are prohibited at all times. Only four rushers allowed, no 5-man pressures or blitzes from secondary permitted.

Coaches and Senior Bowl observers will be responsible for the defensive requirements.

Personnel

4-3 personnel

3-4 personnel

a. Substitution packages, i.e., dime, short-yardage or goal line packages, are not permitted at any time. However, teams are permitted to play three cornerbacks in a four-man secondary. 

b. A nickel package may be used when the offense has three wide receivers on the field. In this case, the defense may use a four-man front with five defensive backs.

Fronts

a. In Base, only an Under front will be permitted in both 4-3/3-4 schemes.

1. 4-3 UNDER, traditional lineup with strong-side linebacker over TE and remaining two linebackers in "box" and off-the-line of scrimmage. 

2. 3-4 UNDER, strong-side linebacker (Sam) aligns over TE, with two “box" linebackers off-the-line and weak-side linebacker reduced as the 4th rusher (not allowed to drop into pass coverage). 

b. Linebackers and defensive ends are not permitted to switch positions.

c. In Sub, only an EVEN front with four-down defensive linemen and the Center 
left uncovered will be permitted.

Pass Coverage

a. Zone 
1. Two-deep or Three-deep zone coverage only. 

2. Safety rotation to curl/flat only. In Base, Under/Cover-6 will be a zone call that allows the free safety to rotate to the weak-side of the offensive formation. In Sub, Even/Cover-3 will be a zone call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the strong-side of the offensive formation. No safeties are allowed to insert or switch coverage responsibility with the linebacker assigned to his side (no “buzz” rotation allowed).

3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped. 
 

b. Man-to-Man

1. Man coverage with a free safety only. Press technique is permitted. 

2. Safety rotation will mirror movement in zone coverages. In Base, Under/Cover-1 Weak will be a man call that allows the free safety to rotate to the open-side of the formation with the strong safety in the middle-of-the-field. In Sub, Even/Cover-1 Strong will be a man call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the closed-side of the formation with the free safety in the middle-of-the-field.

3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped.  

4. The safety that is not playing the middle one-third must have a specific man-to-man coverage assignment. He is only permitted to "free-up" if his man blocks.

https://www.seniorbowl.com/playing-rules.php

Wait are we sure Bowles didn't get a hold of these rules .

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, varjet said:

Allen was always going to be a higher pick because his physical statistics are so incredible.  What QB who had the physical stats of Allen went lower than the 1st round in the last 10 years.  His right place is lower in the first round, not necessarily out of the first round.  That is the place for a better team, like the Steelers with Ben and the Ravens with Flacco, to develop him.  He is worth the chance there.  

Half right. Teams do reach on QBs because of measurables. Jake Locker being the defacto example...  

Honestly, the part of this equation that is missed; QBs who are as physically gifted as Allen, Russell, Locker, Freeman -- etc, they get by in College because of said traits. You can look like a god in college with his physical skill set, and those of course inflates stock/perception.

[56mehl56]

55 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Half right. Teams do reach on QBs because of measurables. Jake Locker being the defacto example...  

Honestly, the part of this equation that is missed; QBs who are as physically gifted as Allen, Russell, Locker, Freeman -- etc, they get by in College because of said traits. You can look like a god in college with his physical skill set, and those of course inflates stock/perception.

So are you comparing Russell, Locker and Freeman to Allen. Because other than having strong arms there's almost no similarity.  All 3 of those played for major programs(LSU, WASH, Kan St.) surrounded by some NFL level talent. Allen had an extremely young wr's corps and a ragtag Oline.

[Paradis]

48 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

So are you comparing Russell, Locker and Freeman to Allen. Because other than having strong arms there's almost no similarity.  All 3 of those played for major programs(LSU, WASH, Kan St.) surrounded by some NFL level talent. Allen had an extremely young wr's corps and a ragtag Oline.

You lost me when you started making excuses for Allen. He's had good olines and OK ones. He's had WRs and lesser ones. All the way from JUCO to Wyoming - his completion problems haven't changed all. At all. Haven't changed. Always the same. HE HAS ISSUES. 

Doesn't mean he sucks, but he has some significant flaws. 

 

And yes, i compared them to Allen - they're all physical specimens with huge arms. You focused on all the wrong points of my post. 

[TuscanyTile2]

I think this is the reason why Josh Allen will not be drafted by the Jets.

[56mehl56]

45 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You lost me when you started making excuses for Allen. He's had good olines and OK ones. He's had WRs and lesser ones. All the way from JUCO to Wyoming - his completion problems haven't changed all. At all. Haven't changed. Always the same. HE HAS ISSUES. 

Doesn't mean he sucks, but he has some significant flaws. 

 

And yes, i compared them to Allen - they're all physical specimens with huge arms. You focused on all the wrong points of my post. 

Fine we'll agree to disagree.

[Larz]

Allen is the definition of boom or bust 

Playing him too soon would be criminal negligence 

 

[56mehl56]

11 minutes ago, Larz said:

Allen is the definition of boom or bust 

Playing him too soon would be criminal negligence 

 

The same for any of these QB's. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

39 minutes ago, Larz said:

Allen is the definition of boom or bust 

Playing him too soon would be criminal negligence 

 

We really don't know anything other then we don't know a thing.  If he's playing soon, then he obviously doing something right. I'm someone who've said Weinz wasn't ready due to him coming from a D1AA football team.