Why the NFL Draft isn’t as important as it used to be (2011 CBA)

[C Mart]

I heard Parcells mention this 5-6 yrs ago in regards to difficulty in developing OL & DL (and the limited hitting) from his talks w/coaches around the league that he kept in touch with. Pretty much applies to most positions..I'd add QB..Whomever the Jets pick next week will be on his own next year Jan - April. Phase II (coaches are permitted to meet w/players) starts early May...I think Phase II this year starts April 30th.  

Why the NFL Draft isn’t as important as it used to be

By Ben Volin GLOBE STAFF

APRIL 18, 2018

With most teams busy trying to accumulate draft picks, the Patriots instead took a hard pass on the 2017 NFL Draft.

They traded away their first-, second-, and fifth-round picks for young players with NFL experience: Brandin Cooks, Kony Ealy, and James O’Shaughnessy. Their entire draft haul consisted of a pair of third-round picks, a fourth-rounder, and a sixth-rounder.

This year, the Rams have decided that the draft isn’t what it’s cracked up to be, either. They traded their first-round pick for Cooks, and last year they traded their 2018 second-round pick for Sammy Watkins.

The Rams built their team the expensive way, adding several big veterans through trades and free agency: Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and more. And when the draft is held next weekend, the Rams won’t be on the board until the third round, pick No. 87.

It’s a strategy that the Rams developed through experience — the hard way.

“We learned this through the RG3 trade,” vice president of football operations Kevin Demoff said in February at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, referring to the big 2012 trade that sent the No. 2 pick, which would become Robert Griffin III, to Washington.

The Rams emerged from that deal with eight draft picks over three years, including five in the top two rounds. They were supposed to be locked and loaded with young talent, ready to take on the NFC for years to come.

Six years later, only one player is left: defensive tackle Michael Brockers, he of 19 sacks in six seasons. Left tackle Greg Robinson, a No. 2 overall pick, was a huge bust and lasted just three years. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins was allowed to walk in free agency after four years. Linebacker Alec Ogletree provided five serviceable seasons, and was just traded away to the Giants. Running back Isaiah Pead and wide receiver Stedman Bailey had their careers cut short by freak accidents. Zac Stacy and Rokevious Watkins flamed out quickly. And coach Jeff Fisher was fired after five playoff-less seasons.

The problem, the Rams found out, was that they didn’t have enough time to develop their young players, thanks to the new practice rules established by the 2011 collective bargaining agreement.

“In the new CBA, you get such limited time with players,” Demoff said. “Going really young, I think, was easier when you had more time in the offseason, more time in training camp. We had a player last year who missed all of the offseason because he didn’t graduate until late, and he had 10 practices until the preseason opener.

“It’s great to have picks, but even if you hit on them, how they develop is so much harder now. You don’t necessarily have three years to develop these guys.”

The NFL Draft is still important, of course. But the reasons have changed under the new CBA. And a good case can be made that the draft just isn’t as important as it used to be.

“I still think [building through the draft] is the best way to go, but you’ve got a lot more options now, and it’s not the only way to go and the only way to win,” former Eagles president Joe Banner said.

The biggest change in today’s NFL: Time, not money, is the scarce resource.

In the pre-2011 NFL, when teams held 50-odd full-contact practices before the start of the season and salary-cap space was tight, signing expensive free agents and eschewing the draft was the quickest way to miss the playoffs (just ask the early 2000s Redskins). There was almost no debate across the league that the best method for building a roster was to draft and develop.

“There was a correlation for many years between the teams that had the most draft picks and the teams that were the most successful — Pittsburgh, the Patriots, Eagles, Ravens,” said Banner, whose team reached the playoffs 11 times between 1995-2012. “Those were the teams that were leading the draft every year.”

But the new CBA has shifted the dynamic, making veterans more valuable and rookies less so.

The biggest reason has been the reduction in practice time. Teams used to hold full-contact practices in the offseason, two-a-days during training camp, and had no limitations on full-contact practices during the regular season.

But under the new CBA, spring practices are strictly regulated with no contact, no pads, and only four hours per day at the facility. Two-a-days in training camp have been eliminated, and teams can hold only 14 padded practices throughout the entire regular season.

These restrictions are great for the players’ health and safety, but terrible for developing young players — especially those that play in college offenses that don’t translate to the NFL.

“It’s definitely a big problem,” an NFC general manager said. “It’s just a lot harder to develop players, especially if you’re starting over with a new coaching staff and trying to implement a new system.”

Demoff said that the Rams ran a study, and concluded that it now takes players about three years to have the same amount of practice time they would have gotten in one year under the old CBA.

Young players usually get a couple of years to prove themselves, but if they don’t make immediate contributions, teams move on quickly.

“It’s not baseball, where you have the minor leagues and then six years of service,” Demoff said. “So if you go really young, you’re not finding out until Year 3 or 4 if they’re any good, and then you’re paying market rate for them.”

The RG3 trade loaded up the Rams with young talent, but, said Demoff, “We looked at it as [we needed] a better balance. We were the youngest team in the league for four years, five years, but you have to find those veterans to plug in.”

Offensive linemen used to be the easiest and safest players to project to the NFL, but in the last five years, top-10 picks Luke Joeckel, Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack, Ereck Flowers, and Robinson have all been busts.

“It went from the easiest and safest pick to one where we’ve seen a lot of misses,” Banner said. “Now, does that mean things have really changed, or it’s just we’re in a down cycle at the moment? I don’t know, but there is no doubt that there are some positions in the league that had a higher batting average, and that doesn’t seem to be as true anymore.”

And the Patriots also love to flip their mid- and late-round picks — which have a lower chance of becoming NFL players — for established players. This year they got Danny Shelton, Cordarrelle Patterson, and a sixth-round pick all for a 2019 third-rounder. They traded a sixth for cornerback Jason McCourty and a seventh. They traded a seventh for linebacker Marquis Flowers.

The Patriots enter next week’s draft with five picks in the top 95, but they traded away all four of their picks in the fourth and fifth rounds.

“They’re trading a fourth-round draft pick, where you have a 15 percent chance of having a good starter coming out of the fourth round, for guys that are already established as good players,” Banner said. “How can that not be smart?”

The other big change in today’s NFL is that the league is awash in salary-cap space. The cap has consistently risen by $10 million-$12 million each year, from $123 million in 2013 to $177.2 million in 2018, thanks to an influx of TV money. And the new CBA allows teams to roll over any unused cap space to the next year (the Browns rolled over $58.9 million this year). The 49ers entered the offseason with more than $100 million in cap space, while 20 teams had $20 million in space, and 12 teams had $40 million.

So adding a veteran — or two, or five — isn’t as cost-prohibitive as it used to be. The Eagles just won the Super Bowl with free agents Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Long, Timmy Jernigan, and Torrey Smith all playing crucial roles. Their opponents, the Patriots, also went with the veteran approach, and haven’t used a first-round pick since 2015.

And the trade market has exploded, as teams are getting wise to the Patriots’ young-veteran philosophy, and because of all the salary-cap space. There have been 21 trades this calendar year, compared with 10 through this time last year, and four in 2016. Taking on veteran contracts, or dead money to get rid of a veteran contract, isn’t a big deal anymore.

“The cap used to be so tight that teams couldn’t even contemplate taking a veteran on that was making any real money,” Banner said. “Now the huge amounts of cap room that most teams have changes both the value of veterans players making a lot of money, and draft picks.”

The draft may not be as important as it used to be, but it still carries plenty of weight. Teams can punt on the draft once or twice, but they can’t continually ignore it. The Patriots are reversing course this year and loading up with multiple picks in each of the first two rounds.

But whereas draft picks used to be counted on to be the cornerstone of a team, now they are viewed more as low-cost and fill-in-the-gap type players. The new CBA instituted a new rookie wage scale that has made most rookies tremendous values — locked in at below-market rates for four seasons.

With most starting quarterbacks now making $20-plus million, Jameis Winston has a cap number of $8.06 million this year. Trey Flowers, the Patriots’ terrific young defensive end, made about $2.1 million in his first three seasons combined, and will make $1.9 million this year.

“Long-term, you can’t balance the economics without a fair number of these younger players coming in and making a difference and playing and being less expensive,” Banner said.

But with teams awash in cap space, and young players not getting the coaching and development that they need, the importance of the draft just isn’t what it used to be.

“I’m never going to join the school that thinks trading away all your draft picks is a smart thing to do,” Banner said. “But I’m saying relative to where it was six, seven years ago, when teams desperately needed those picks to just manage their cap, those picks have lost a bit of their value. That’s the underlying change in how some teams are building their rosters

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2018/04/18/why-nfl-draft-isn-important-used/9Tk5GkUu82JtyBX2hItrsI/story.html

[Integrity28]

Been saying this for years. That CBA ruined the game. First 4-weeks 80% of teams are still stalling off/def. Allows vet teams to get a leg up, see: Pats

More injuries than ever, because contact, conditioning and technique are short-changed.

No time to develop any position.

Just a debilitating contract.

[redlichtie]

Good read, thanks for sharing

The value of continuity is even greater now, so long as that continuity actually delivers

[Larz]

I heard they can learn a lot from playing madden 

[NoBowles]

7 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Been saying this for years. That CBA ruined the game. First 4-weeks 80% of teams are still stalling off/def. Allows vet teams to get a leg up, see: Pats

More injuries than ever, because contact, conditioning and technique are short-changed.

No time to develop any position.

Just a debilitating contract.

Agree, and it’s highly likely that the next one will be even worse for the game.

[Freemanm]

7 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Been saying this for years. That CBA ruined the game. First 4-weeks 80% of teams are still stalling off/def. Allows vet teams to get a leg up, see: Pats

More injuries than ever, because contact, conditioning and technique are short-changed.

No time to develop any position.

Just a debilitating contract.

Shouldn't the NFL have a b-league, you know, kind of like minor leagues where practice squads or free agents who aren't being picked up can play? It would help develop young talent. It seems like rookies are asked to contribute more now than in any other era. I think players like DeShone Kizer has tremendous potential, but starting from day one on the Browns has basically ruined his career. 

I guess the only thing that would prevent that is a league like that wouldn't make a lot of money

[RSJ]

Two thoughts on this:

1) The way around this is a minor league system. If the commish wasnt such a moron he would realize this.

2) Mac was even smarter for trading away those two seconds.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[bla bla bla]

I think this is why the NFL needs to implement more college concepts. Certain play styles won’t translate due to the talent on defense but any way to reduce the learning curve would help. The minor league system is really what needs to happen. The Patriots are using the rest of the league as a farm system.

[UnitedWhofans]

The biggest detriment to an NFL minor league system is that NFL careers are so short to begin with that it would take up career time. 

[Integrity28]

11 hours ago, Freemanm said:

Shouldn't the NFL have a b-league, you know, kind of like minor leagues where practice squads or free agents who aren't being picked up can play? It would help develop young talent. It seems like rookies are asked to contribute more now than in any other era. I think players like DeShone Kizer has tremendous potential, but starting from day one on the Browns has basically ruined his career. 

I guess the only thing that would prevent that is a league like that wouldn't make a lot of money

Yea, it’s supposed to be the NCAA but they stopped doing what’s best for the athlete

[RSJ]

The biggest detriment to an NFL minor league system is that NFL careers are so short to begin with that it would take up career time. 

True, but a 6 or 8 game schedule would be fine. NFL Europe developed players and it really wasnt even designed well to accomplish that.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[JustInFudge]

19 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Been saying this for years. That CBA ruined the game. First 4-weeks 80% of teams are still stalling off/def. Allows vet teams to get a leg up, see: Pats

More injuries than ever, because contact, conditioning and technique are short-changed.

No time to develop any position.

Just a debilitating contract.

100% this but this article IMO couldnt be more wrong.

First off, they're using 2 examples.  The Patriots - who have a 40 year old QB that they're trying to squeeze every drip out of so prioritizing in the draft isnt nearly as important.   That said, they're roster wins from their draft picks; Tom Brady, Gronk, Brown, Flowers, Mason, Solder, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Butler etc. 

And while the Rams, this year are trading away draft capital; their team was completely developed through the draft.  Donald, Gurley, Goff, Robinson, Joyner, Brocker, Quinn, Everett, The Coopers, and the dudes they lost in FA this year, were dudes they drafted and helped them win the division.  We dont know for certain their strategy this year is going to work out.

Philly would have been the better example but again, that nucleus was built through the draft.

I understand the point of the article but it's a huge stretch and inherently wrong. 

[chirorob]

11 hours ago, Freemanm said:

Shouldn't the NFL have a b-league, you know, kind of like minor leagues where practice squads or free agents who aren't being picked up can play? It would help develop young talent. It seems like rookies are asked to contribute more now than in any other era. I think players like DeShone Kizer has tremendous potential, but starting from day one on the Browns has basically ruined his career. 

I guess the only thing that would prevent that is a league like that wouldn't make a lot of money

There should be one in 2019.   No kickoffs at all, what's kind of cool is if you want an onsides kick you get 4th and 10 from your own 30. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/03/20/new-aaf-pro-football-league-set-2019-described-complementary-nfl/441604002/

[chirorob]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

100% this but this article IMO couldnt be more wrong.

First off, they're using 2 examples.  The Patriots - who have a 40 year old QB that they're trying to squeeze every drip out of so prioritizing in the draft isnt nearly as important.   That said, they're roster wins from their draft picks; Tom Brady, Gronk, Brown, Flowers, Mason, Solder, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Butler etc. 

And while the Rams, this year are trading away draft capital; their team was completely developed through the draft.  Donald, Gurley, Goff, Robinson, Joyner, Brocker, Quinn, Everett, The Coopers, and the dudes they lost in FA this year, were dudes they drafted and helped them win the division.  We dont know for certain their strategy this year is going to work out.

Philly would have been the better example but again, that nucleus was built through the draft.

I understand the point of the article but it's a huge stretch and inherently wrong. 

Every team can spend the same amount of money, so the way to get a good team is to get players over playing their contracts.   Either that's vets playing for below their worth (Brady), or guys on their rookie deals.  That's why taking players who will take 3-4 years to develop isn't smart.   By the time they are playing and contributing at a higher level, their contract is up and you have to pay them as such.

[#27TheDominator]

I think I was just having this fight with someone yesterday.

Developing players while they sit for multiple years is no longer a thing. The redshirt idea is moronic.  Assume Hackenberg did develop, this would have been his career path:  Year 1 (2016)redshirt.  Year 2(2017) PT player.  Year 3 (2018) starter.  Year 4 (2019) looks great.  Now you have to sign him as a FA.  I am editing this post to add that under this scenario Jimmy Garoppolo just signed for 5/$137.5m.  is that a sensible expenditure of a draft pick? I do not believe the redshirt was a thing, but that is a different argument.  It might make sense if you can hide/develop the player behind a star like Brady and then spin him for a pick, but not when Fitzpatrick, Geno, Petty and McCown are starting ahead of him. 

Older prospects are no longer a big problem.  Guys that have military commitments or went on missions (like Pouha)  have the same value as anybody else.  Only caveats are that they still be in their athletic prime at the end of their contract and that you consider that a 20-21 year old might still be getting more physically/mentally mature, while that 25-26 year old rookie likely won't.

This is the reason that I think we will see an uptick in 1st round RBs.  RBs started dropping because you could find them anywhere and general positional value based on the fact that most teams like a fresh guy and RB by committee.  OTOH, I think the idea that they dropped because they have short careers is silly.  If you can draft a guy and get 4-5 top years out of him, who cares that he didn't have a 10 year career?  

OTOH, the draft may be more valuable now.  There is a new CBA coming and I think the players expect to kick ass.  That is why so many deals are 3 year deals.  Cousins for instance.  They are really expecting to cash in.  Right now you can lock your draft picks up for 4 years, with a 5th year option for 1st rounders.  Teams will have 2018 picks locked up through the 2021 season, and 1st rounders through 2022.  Meanwhile, much of the rest of the league will be getting paid before the 2021 season.  The flipside of this is that there may be less cap ramifications, so saving money may be less important at that point.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Every team can spend the same amount of money, so the way to get a good team is to get players over playing their contracts.   Either that's vets playing for below their worth (Brady), or guys on their rookie deals.  That's why taking players who will take 3-4 years to develop isn't smart.   By the time they are playing and contributing at a higher level, their contract is up and you have to pay them as such.

Another very simple way of viewing this: 3 QB's have played in the SB that werent drafted by their respected teams since 2004.  Brees, Warner and Manning.

But then, if you look at 2003 and the 10 SB's played that year and before in this example you had: Delhome, Warner, Johnson, Gannon, Dilfer, Collins, McNair, Chandler, Favre, Humphries, Young - all make it to the SB on a team that didnt draft them.

When you put it that way, one could easily argue that the draft is more important than ever.

 

[#27TheDominator]

29 minutes ago, JiF said:

Another very simple way of viewing this: 3 QB's have played in the SB that werent drafted by their respected teams since 2004.  Brees, Warner and Manning.

But then, if you look at 2003 and the 10 SB's played that year and before in this example you had: Delhome, Warner, Johnson, Gannon, Dilfer, Collins, McNair, Chandler, Favre, Humphries, Young - all make it to the SB on a team that didnt draft them.

When you put it that way, one could easily argue that the draft is more important than ever.

 

Decent point, but off the top of my head, you left off Foles (2017), and Hasselbeck (2005). 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

24 minutes ago, JiF said:

Another very simple way of viewing this: 3 QB's have played in the SB that werent drafted by their respected teams since 2004.  Brees, Warner and Manning.

But then, if you look at 2003 and the 10 SB's played that year and before in this example you had: Delhome, Warner, Johnson, Gannon, Dilfer, Collins, McNair, Chandler, Favre, Humphries, Young - all make it to the SB on a team that didnt draft them.

When you put it that way, one could easily argue that the draft is more important than ever.

 

Article kind of botched the premise with weird evidence to support the point, but between the rookie wage scale and inflated cap numbers, there is no way to get scarce positions like qb, WR, or pass rushers without drafting it. Dom's right above, redshirting rookies are a bad idea and the lack of development time rewards efficient and innovative teams and punishes those who fail to adapt. 

 

[JustInFudge]

27 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Decent point, but off the top of my head, you left off Foles (2017), and Hasselbeck (2005). 

Yep!  Technically, Foles was draft by the Eagles and obviously Wentz is the future but Hasselbeck I forgot about. 

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think I was just having this fight with someone yesterday.

Developing players while they sit for multiple years is no longer a thing. The redshirt idea is moronic.  Assume Hackenberg did develop, this would have been his career path:  Year 1 (2016)redshirt.  Year 2(2017) PT player.  Year 3 (2018) starter.  Year 4 (2019) looks great.  Now you have to sign him as a FA.  I am editing this post to add that under this scenario Jimmy Garoppolo just signed for 5/$137.5m.  is that a sensible expenditure of a draft pick? I do not believe the redshirt was a thing, but that is a different argument.  It might make sense if you can hide/develop the player behind a star like Brady and then spin him for a pick, but not when Fitzpatrick, Geno, Petty and McCown are starting ahead of him. 

Older prospects are no longer a big problem.  Guys that have military commitments or went on missions (like Pouha)  have the same value as anybody else.  Only caveats are that they still be in their athletic prime at the end of their contract and that you consider that a 20-21 year old might still be getting more physically/mentally mature, while that 25-26 year old rookie likely won't.

This is the reason that I think we will see an uptick in 1st round RBs.  RBs started dropping because you could find them anywhere and general positional value based on the fact that most teams like a fresh guy and RB by committee.  OTOH, I think the idea that they dropped because they have short careers is silly.  If you can draft a guy and get 4-5 top years out of him, who cares that he didn't have a 10 year career?  

OTOH, the draft may be more valuable now.  There is a new CBA coming and I think the players expect to kick ass.  That is why so many deals are 3 year deals.  Cousins for instance.  They are really expecting to cash in.  Right now you can lock your draft picks up for 4 years, with a 5th year option for 1st rounders.  Teams will have 2018 picks locked up through the 2021 season, and 1st rounders through 2022.  Meanwhile, much of the rest of the league will be getting paid before the 2021 season.  The flipside of this is that there may be less cap ramifications, so saving money may be less important at that point.

The only position I think sitting a year is ok with is a QB.   You just have to have one, and if someone isn't ready to start year 1, don't send him out there to get crushed.  

Everything else, pretty much totally agree.

[JustInFudge]

29 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Article kind of botched the premise with weird evidence to support the point, but between the rookie wage scale and inflated cap numbers, there is no way to get scarce positions like qb, WR, or pass rushers without drafting it. Dom's right above, redshirting rookies are a bad idea and the lack of development time rewards efficient and innovative teams and punishes those who fail to adapt. 

 

100%.  FA will always be a supplement to drafting well.  Those examples they used (and Philly too); used a combination of both (just like every other team) to build their roster.  However, in all examples their nucleus was drafted giving them the flexibility to sign high dollar FA's. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, chirorob said:

The only position I think sitting a year is ok with is a QB.   You just have to have one, and if someone isn't ready to start year 1, don't send him out there to get crushed.  

Everything else, pretty much totally agree.

I don't think that you have to send a guy out there week 1, but not a redshirt.  To give the guy the entire year off to "learn" basically means you are sacrificing 2 full years, or half his contract - 1 to redshirt and 1 to get his lumps.  I don't think anybody has a problem with the Eli model of half a year to sit and half a year to suck, but anything much beyond that is a bad plan. 

[chirorob]

22 minutes ago, JiF said:

100%.  FA will always be a supplement to drafting well.  Those examples they used (and Philly too); used a combination of both (just like every other team) to build their roster.  However, in all examples their nucleus was drafted giving them the flexibility to sign high dollar FA's. 

Very much so.   To me, that goes into drafting the best player available (aside from QB).   You then use FA to fill the holes.

Obviously, there are limits to that.   If the BPA for the Jets in round 3 is a safety, then you go to the second BPA.

[#27TheDominator]

An interesting thing with red-shirting might be injured guys - like Jaylon Smith.  Neither Smith or Randy Gregory (suspended) got an accrued season for 2016.  Under those circumstances, while they may be FAs when their contracts expire, they will be either restricted (3 years accrued) or exclusive rights (2 years) free agents.  That control can mean quite a bit.  As long as you are on the roster 6 weeks you accrue the season - so Hackenberg still has 2 years of service despite not playing a down, while Gregory has 1 despite playing in 12 games in 2015 and 66 snaps over 2 games in 2016. 

[Integrity28]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

100% this but this article IMO couldnt be more wrong.

First off, they're using 2 examples.  The Patriots - who have a 40 year old QB that they're trying to squeeze every drip out of so prioritizing in the draft isnt nearly as important.   That said, they're roster wins from their draft picks; Tom Brady, Gronk, Brown, Flowers, Mason, Solder, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Butler etc. 

And while the Rams, this year are trading away draft capital; their team was completely developed through the draft.  Donald, Gurley, Goff, Robinson, Joyner, Brocker, Quinn, Everett, The Coopers, and the dudes they lost in FA this year, were dudes they drafted and helped them win the division.  We dont know for certain their strategy this year is going to work out.

Philly would have been the better example but again, that nucleus was built through the draft.

I understand the point of the article but it's a huge stretch and inherently wrong. 

Yep agreed

[Sperm Edwards]

5 hours ago, JiF said:

100% this but this article IMO couldnt be more wrong.

First off, they're using 2 examples.  The Patriots - who have a 40 year old QB that they're trying to squeeze every drip out of so prioritizing in the draft isnt nearly as important.   That said, they're roster wins from their draft picks; Tom Brady, Gronk, Brown, Flowers, Mason, Solder, McCourty, Chung, Hightower, Butler etc. 

And while the Rams, this year are trading away draft capital; their team was completely developed through the draft.  Donald, Gurley, Goff, Robinson, Joyner, Brocker, Quinn, Everett, The Coopers, and the dudes they lost in FA this year, were dudes they drafted and helped them win the division.  We dont know for certain their strategy this year is going to work out.

Philly would have been the better example but again, that nucleus was built through the draft.

I understand the point of the article but it's a huge stretch and inherently wrong. 

It's also ignoring that a team like NE, who consistently picks at the bottom of rounds and hasn't needed to draft a QB for almost 20 years, has more flexibility in terms of FA vs draftees. Even more so when their QB takes under-market $$$ while collecting non-player paychecks from the Patriots. 

The other thing it conveniently ignores is that there's a temporary catch-up phase, where contracts haven't yet caught up to the cap limits. Eventually the annual cap increase will taper off and that gap will close. What it's allowed is a team (let's just use the Jets as an example) that made bad veteran deal after bad veteran deal, can be the NFL leader in cap space in 2018: 3 years after embarking upon a 2-year spending spree from 2015-16.

The other thing it doesn't ignore, but certainly doesn't really delve deeply enough, is teams saving $20m/year on a starting QB playing under a rookie contract. It's a tremendous luxury that can't be overstated by mentioning picks like Winston who haven't exactly overseen championship squads. As soon as the QB high cap number kicks in, the likelihood of winning a Super Bowl becomes very low, even among teams with top FQBs. 

We may see more deals with shorter contracts with a higher percentage guaranteed (e.g. Cousins 2018). That'll close that gap really fast, and this article will be moot. The problem with fully guaranteed contracts on typical 4-5-year contracts, for the teams, was that careers so often hit a wall suddenly, and a team that misses on 3+ such contracts (like the Jets) are automatically non-contenders for 3-4 years until those contracts would expire. But if they're 2 years guaranteed on 3 year deals, then the inflation will hit much more rapidly (as more players will become FAs each year). 

[rangerous]

there are a couple of factors that aren't mentioned. first is the rosters are larger so even if the practice time per player is cut, the overall man days alloted to practice aren't equally less.  the second thing is what happens is the product is diluted.  less practice time means players don't know their positions as well so it's easier for a guy like brady (and manning and brees etc) to chew up defenses that have db's drafted after 2011.  maybe that's another reason why the passing games have gotten better.

as for the draft, imo, this means it's even more important to find players that know how to play.  since the colleges are about the only place the nfl can get players it makes the scouting and the draft that much more important.  this is probably the reason why it seems more underclassmen are entering the draft.