Connecting the Draft Dots

[choon328]

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

[David Harris]

totally plausible

Mac would get a bad rap for having f'd with a kid (baker) like that but all's fair in the draft.  

[T0mShane]

I would bet money that this is how it goes:

1. Browns: Darnold—Prevailing rumor is they’re torn between Allen and Darnold. I’m guessing that Darnold checks a few more boxes than Allen does and Dorsey, along with OC/Future Interim HC Todd Haley, takes the safer bet.

 

2. Giants: Rosen—Prevailing rumor is Saquon Barkley or Trade Out. I don’t see how it makes any sense to pass on a QB when you have a new regime inheriting a nearly washed-up QB going into a season where they’d realistically be lucky to start out 2-5. The new HC is a nerd QB guru, the new OC is a nerd QB guru, and Rosen is a nerd QB. Also factor in that the Giants can save $17 million against the cap by dumping Eli after this season, and aren’t going to give him another contract anyway. Gettleman’s heart may be set on the ground and pound, but his brain—and everyone else in the organization with a vote—doesn’t let him screw this pick up.

 

3. Jets: Allen—Prevailing rumor has been Mayfield! Mayfield! Mayfield! Allen has become the human trophy in the ongoing war between Analaytics Geeks and Football Guyz and the Jets, under Maccagnan, haven’t shown a shred of interest in applying analytics at ANY position, much less QB. The relentless screaming-from-the-mount about them being set on Mayfield was a pretty transparent and ham-fisted attempt at misdirection, and a new rumor to that effect appeared every time there was a rumor floated about the Giants possibly trading out. Bowles doesn’t want to coach any player that will actually require him to assert discipline, and Rosen and Mayfield are both high maintenance personalities. But not big ol’ Josh Allen, who’s just happy to be there (gosh golly). Allen also comes with the added bonus of not being close to ready to play, which paves the way for Bowles to keep rolling Josh McCown out there in perpetuity. 

4. Bills: Mayfield—The prevailing rumor is that the Bills are desperate to trade up for a QB and that the QB they love the most is Mayfield. At last count, the Bills have worked Mayfield out four different times, so when they see him get past the Jets, they’ll give the Browns a mess of picks to get their guy at 4. Buffalo is very much the Norman, Oklahoma of the north, so it’s a perfect marriage on many levels.

5. Broncos: Barkley—Elway would have taken Mayfield, but will get stuck with Case Keenum and Paxton Lynch as his QBs, so he supplements them both with Barkley. Barkley actually has a lot of weirdly scary stats that suggests he’s not going to be a dominant back in the pros.

[GreenFish]

That is plausible but to me it is all about money and the agent.

if you watch the first episode of the Baker documentary, his agent showed him the rookie scale by pick. Baker then drew a line at pick 5. He also talked about how he wants to go number 1 overall. The line at 5 after seeing the wage scale is pretty telling. 

Garrett's contract last year was worth $30 mil in total and Corey Davis' at pick 5 was worth $25. A drop off of about $1 mil per pick. But after pick 5, that drop starts to pick up. From 5 to 6 the drop is $3 mil and another $3 mil from 6 to 7.

No doubt this was the agent and reporters ran with it because they don't have anything to go with.

 

[Villain The Foe]

3 hours ago, choon328 said:

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

It's possible, though im not really on board with concussions/injuries being "overblown" or that the majority of players had them. I dont see the majority of players missing the amount of games over a two year span the way Rosen did. This is why it's a concern. That's not being overblown, that's the fact of the matter, especially when the best ability is availability. 

Think about it. The Jets had a franchise player named Chad Pennington that injured his shoulder and was never the same. In 2016 Josh Rosen was injured for the season after 6 games due to an injury to his throwing shoulder, specifically nerve damage to that shoulder. Follow that up to the next season where Rosen misses time due to concussions, multiple concussions. If we draft Rosen and put him on the field and he suffers another concussion that would be 3 concussions in 1 calender year. That's not overblown, but's just the fact of the matter. Drafting Rosen would have our QB room look like this. 
 

#1. We cut Hack/Petty

#2. We have Rosen who's suffered 2 concussions this year, Teddy Bridgewater who's on a "show me" deal given his gruesome injury history and a 40 year old QB. 

What happens if Bridgewater cant play on that knee and Rosen either suffers his 3rd concussion in a calendar year or re-injures his throwing arm adding more damage to the nerves in his shoulder? "We're stuck with a 40 year old Josh McCown as being our main guy" is what will happen. 

Again, this is possible, but its only possible if the Jets think that his injury history is overblown, and that is really not a smart thing to do especially when we seen what a shoulder injury can do to a Jets QB or what concussions can do to any football player. 

If Rosen falls it shouldnt be a surprise, he's only the best pure passer in terms of mechanics. In otherwords, he looks good throwing the football. If he suffers another concussion or re-injuries that throwing arm it wont matter how beautiful his mechanics are. 

[prime21]

Mayfield has an impressive college resume and can excite the fan base.  He has been the only QB that had never been a thought to be taken at number 1 or 2.   The Jets have had ample time to fall in love with this kid and know that he can be theirs.

Everyone seems aware that Baker will be the pick over Rosen so it won't be a shock but imagine if they pass on Darnold.  

[Mackman55]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I would bet money that this is how it goes:

1. Browns: Darnold—Prevailing rumor is they’re torn between Allen and Darnold. I’m guessing that Darnold checks a few more boxes than Allen does and Dorsey, along with OC/Future Interim HC Todd Haley take the safer bet.

 

2. Giants: Rosen—Prevailing rumor is Saquon Barkley or Trade Out. I don’t see how it makes any sense to pass on a QB when you have a new regime’s inheriting a nearly washed up QB going into a season where they’d realistically be lucky to start out 2-5. The new HC is a nerd QB guru, the new OC is a nerd QB guru, and Rosen is a nerd QB. Gettleman’s heart may be set on the ground and pound, but his brain—and everyone else in the organization with a vote—doesn’t let him screw this pick up.

 

3. Jets: Allen—Allen has become the human trophy in the ongoing war between Analaytics Geeks and Football Guyz and the Jets, under Maccagnan, haven’t shown a shred of interest in analytics at any position, much less QB. The relentless screaming-from-the-mount about them being set on Mayfield was a pretty transparent and ham-fisted attempt at misdirection, and a new rumor to that effect appeared every time there was a rumor floated about the Giants possibly trading out. Bowles doesn’t want to coach any player that will actually require him to assert discipline, and Rosen and Mayfield are both high maintenance personalities, but not big ol’ Josh Allen, who’s just happy to be there (gosh golly). Allen also comes with the added bonus of not being close to ready to play, which paves the way for Bowles to keep rolling Josh McCown out there in perpetuity. 

4. Bills: Mayfield—The prevailing rumor is that the Bills are desperate to trade up for a QB and that the QB they love the most is Mayfield. At last count, the Bills have worked Mayfield out four different times, so when they see him get past the Jets, they give the Browns a mess of picks to get their guy at 4. Buffalo is very much the Norman, Oklahoma of the north, so it’s a perfect marriage on many levels.

5. Broncos: Barkley—Elway would have taken Mayfield, but gets stuck with Case Keenum and Paxton Lynch as his QBs, so he supplements them both with Barkley, who actually has a lot of weirdly scary stats that suggest he’s not going to be that good in the pros. 

Hey agent from JACA, your scenario is absolutely possible at this crazy time of year. I can't however, see Bates signing off on Allen who is the "anti west coast offense" QB in this year's draft. With the apparent civil war going on in the Browns front office, I still think they might shock everyone and take Mayfield 1st overall as the compromise pick. This would force the Giants to take Darnold at 2 and guarantees them their choice of Barkley/Chubb at 4. Not a bad strategy.

[Mo Lew]

One thing that scares me in all of this is that the Jets are the only team that had a private practice with Allen. If the Browns wanted him wouldn't they have had one as well?

Tom may be right ☹️

[The Crusher]

3 hours ago, choon328 said:

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

I like those Dipping Dots frozen ice scream balls. This thread is good too.

[Lith]

7 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

One thing that scares me in all of this is that the Jets are the only team that had a private practice with Allen. If the Browns wanted him wouldn't they have had one as well?

Tom may be right ☹️

Haven't they had private workouts with all the top guys though.  I would not read too much into it.  In fact, I have stopped reading too much into anything: Mayfield to the Jets rumors, Allen's private workouts, Rosen out of the Top 10, Darnold to the Browns.  Can't read into anything in the last week before the draft.

I am suffering from draft fatigue.  I just need it to get here already.  If I don't like the pick, I am giving myself one day to bitch about it (maybe 2 days if it is Allen) and then just get behind the guy and hope for the best.

[T0mShane]

26 minutes ago, Mackman55 said:

Hey agent from JACA, your scenario is absolutely possible at this crazy time of year. I can't however, see Bates signing off on Allen who is the "anti west coast offense" QB in this year's draft. With the apparent civil war going on in the Browns front office, I still think they might shock everyone and take Mayfield 1st overall as the compromise pick. This would force the Giants to take Darnold at 2 and guarantees them their choice of Barkley/Chubb at 4. Not a bad strategy.

Assuming the Jets foolishly give a sh*t about what Jeremy Bates—whose résumé is a string of one-year temp jobs—thinks, here is the list of QBs he’s worked with as a QB coach or OC: Testaverde/Pennington; Cutler; Matt Barkley; Matt Hasselback; Cutler again, Allen fits well within that profile. 

[GreenFish]

Those other teams brought Allen in with their 30 visits. Jets have met with the other QBs as well. The type of visit doesn't really matter since you get to put them on the board and speak with them either way.

[GreenFish]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Assuming the Jets foolishly give a sh*t about what Jeremy Bates—whose résumé is a string of one-year temp jobs—here is the list of QBs he’s worked with as a QB coach or OC: Testaverde/Pennington; Cutler; Matt Barkley; Matt Hasselback; Cutler again, Allen fits well within that profile. 

Just because he worked with those QB's doesn't mean he prefers those type of QB's. He also worked with Petty, Hack and McCown. All it says is that he can make it work with most QBs. Since he is running a WCO, it's not crazy to think Allen is his least preferred QB.

[Augustiniak]

Actually i think a lot of the mayfield to the jets began when many started mocking allen to the browns.  This pushed darnold down to the giants, initially, and then the draft pundits had to figure out if the jets were taking Rosen or mayfield.  And one thing that’s happened in this draft process is that mayfield’s stock has risen and rosen’s has leveled off or declined.  So it was easy to mock mayfield to the jets after the top two picks went allen/darnold and Rosen kept talking and mayfield’s tape speaks for itself.

i don’t get the love for Rosen though.  His arm is ok, his mobility is subpar, his accuracy is worse than guys like mayfield when he’s forced out of the pocket.  And he’s been nicked up a lot.  I see a Pennington with a stronger arm, which is ok but not with the 3rd pick in the draft.  I just don’t see the upside i see with the other 3 guys, and then you throw in his personality/leadership concerns and i would rather take one of the other 3.

[joewilly12]

16 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

Tom may be right ☹️

They had a private workout with him because they are doing their due diligence in the upcoming selection means northing else. 

[Mo Lew]

6 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

They had a private workout with him because they are doing their due diligence in the upcoming selection means northing else. 

Why are we the only team that held one? If the Browns were considering Allen why wouldn't they spend every possible minute they could with him? 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

Good thread topic. It's more interesting at this point trying to unravel the smoke screens and propaganda than to argue for the millionth time over who's the best or worst QB. Giants remain the key player for us. But no matter what happens, we will have a QB.

 

 

[T0mShane]

21 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Just because he worked with those QB's doesn't mean he prefers those type of QB's. He also worked with Petty, Hack and McCown. All it says is that he can make it work with most QBs. Since he is running a WCO, it's not crazy to think Allen is his least preferred QB.

The point being, Bates’ greatest success came while working with Cutler, who shares a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses as Allen. Cutler isn’t your prototype “WCO” QB at all either.

[joewilly12]

12 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

Why are we the only team that held one? If the Browns were considering Allen why wouldn't they spend every possible minute they could with him? 

Didn't we have a private workout with other QB's?  Rosen and Mayfield as well. 

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The point being, Bates’ greatest success came while working with Cutler, who shares a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses as Allen. Cutler isn’t your prototype “WCO” QB at all either.

Success with Jay Cutler? 

[Mo Lew]

1 minute ago, joewilly12 said:

Didn't we have a private workout with other QB's? 

We did but so did other teams. Yet not one other team had a private work out will Allen. To me that means other teams don't want him increasing our chances at getting him. 

[joewilly12]

Just now, Mo Lew said:

We did but so did other teams. Yet not one other team had a private work out will Allen. To me that means other teams don't want him increasing our chances at getting him. 

Disagree it was Macc if you can believe doing his due diligence.

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Success with Jay Cutler? 

“Success with Jay Cutler?,” he exclaims to the nurse, batting away the spoonful of applesauce she was directing toward his mouth.

[Mo Lew]

3 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Disagree it was Macc if you can believe doing his due diligence.

Hard to believe ?

[Thai Jet]

The more I look over everything to do with this years QB crop the more convinced I am that Cleveland will take Allen over Darnold. . Main reason ... Darnold is prone to fumble, plus the fact that Darnold has the 2nd smallest hands at 9 3/8" . Allen on the other hand (sorry for the pun) has hands that are 10 1/8 ". Largest of the top 4. I'm thinking with the late season weather in Cleveland with the winds, cold and snow that Allen might be a better choice plus with Tyrod the Browns can let Allen develope.

  Btw : Rosen hand size 9 7/8

           Mayfield  9 1/4"

Just a thought.

 

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Didn't we have private workouts with other QB's.

I believe so.

[joewilly12]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

“Success with Jay Cutler?,” he exclaims to the nurse, batting away the spoonful of applesauce she was directing toward his mouth.

LOL spoken like a true seasoned institutionalized member of society. 

[NYDreamer]

1 hour ago, prime21 said:

Mayfield has an impressive college resume and can excite the fan base.  He has been the only QB that had never been a thought to be taken at number 1 or 2.   The Jets have had ample time to fall in love with this kid and know that he can be theirs.

Everyone seems aware that Baker will be the pick over Rosen so it won't be a shock but imagine if they pass on Darnold.  

Love makes people do crazy things.  No matter which direction we go in I will support the Jets QB of the future.

[JetFaninMI]

4 hours ago, choon328 said:

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

This is an astute well thought out hypothesis but you're leaving out one important factor. Macc. He has shown no ability to pull off a ruse of this magnitude and I seriously doubt he has done it. Maybe by accident it's possible with all the media hype bullsh*t but for him to pull it off purposely? I think you're giving him too much credit.

[FidelioJet]

I'm absolutely convinced the Giants will take Allen.  He's perfect for them.

Only QB that won't put any pressure on Eli, even possibly for two years - gives them time and the ability to be patient.  The fans won't even pressure the Giants to play him - it's perfect.

He has the best potential to be a HOF''er as Gettleman stated he wanted (also the biggest bust potential)

Darnold, Allen - Jet's take Rosen (which is the only guy I don't want) Mayfield goes 5 to Denver.  As Cleveland isnt passing on Barkley.

 

[joewilly12]

11 minutes ago, NYDreamer said:

Love makes people do crazy things.  No matter which direction we go in I will support the Jets QB of the future.

Do we have a choice? 

[Augustiniak]

21 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

The more I look over everything to do with this years QB crop the more convinced I am that Cleveland will take Allen over Darnold. . Main reason ... Darnold is prone to fumble, plus the fact that Darnold has the 2nd smallest hands at 9 3/8" . Allen on the other hand (sorry for the pun) has hands that are 10 1/8 ". Largest of the top 4. I'm thinking with the late season weather in Cleveland with the winds, cold and snow that Allen might be a better choice plus with Tyrod the Browns can let Allen develope.

  Btw : Rosen hand size 9 7/8

           Mayfield  9 1/4"

Just a thought.

 

Doesn’t help Eli though.  Barkley will make gettleman look good right away.

[Grandy]

48 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

Why are we the only team that held one? If the Browns were considering Allen why wouldn't they spend every possible minute they could with him? 

It's not even confirmed that we were the team to give Allen a workout.

[Grandy]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I'm absolutely convinced the Giants will take Allen.  He's perfect for them.

Only QB that won't put any pressure on Eli, even possibly for two years - gives them time and the ability to be patient.  The fans won't even pressure the Giants to play him - it's perfect.

He has the best potential to be a HOF''er as Gettleman stated he wanted (also the biggest bust potential)

Darnold, Allen - Jet's take Rosen (which is the only guy I don't want) Mayfield goes 5 to Denver.  As Cleveland isnt passing on Barkley.

 

This has been my exact thought pattern.

[T0mShane]

Interesting side note. Shurmur lasted two seasons as the Browns HC with nothing at QB. The GM took Trent Richardson with the third overall pick in 2012. I’m guessing if he gets a vote, he’s not rooting for the RB.