Connecting the Draft Dots

[Mo Lew]

4 minutes ago, Grandy said:

It's not even confirmed that we were the team to give Allen a workout.

From espn....

The Jets own the third pick in the draft. Some mock drafts project Allen to go No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns. If that doesn't happen, he probably will be available for the Jets, who have performed an inordinate amount of due diligence on Allen. In fact, they were the only team to travel to Laramie, Wyoming, for a private workout.

[Grandy]

1 minute ago, Mo Lew said:

From espn....

The Jets own the third pick in the draft. Some mock drafts project Allen to go No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns. If that doesn't happen, he probably will be available for the Jets, who have performed an inordinate amount of due diligence on Allen. In fact, they were the only team to travel to Laramie, Wyoming, for a private workout.

Oh, the only I had seen was Allen not giving away who it was. Thanks dude.

[joewilly12]

Josh Allen intrigued  me when we had the 6th pick in the NFL draft.  Now that we have the 3rd pick part of me wants Baker Mayfield and part of me just doesn't know. 

I just want a franchise QB who can fix this organization and make us a winner. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Interesting side note. Shurmur lasted two seasons as the Browns HC with nothing at QB. The GM took Trent Richardson with the third overall pick in 2012. I’m guessing if he gets a vote, he’s not rooting for the RB.

Shurmur was a HC once before and that went pretty bad. Do you think he wants the Giants to take Barkley or a QB that may not play for a year (or 2) sitting behind Eli? Either way, Gettleman doesn't seem like a "poll the room" kind of GM.  

[flgreen]

Think we're way over thinking this.

First Bowles spoke glowingly about Mayfield.  That got the scribes ears tuned. 

Most of the reports have said that Mayfield aced the interviews, including the white board which was a real concern coming out of an air raid O.  Mayfield rises.  

Concussions, and lack of mobility for Rosen.  Yes most players have had minor concussions that we used to call "bell ringers."  Concussions come in degrees.  Guy gets dizzy, but is good to go very quickly.   In Rosen's case 4 weeks later he couldn't get clearance to play in a Bowl game.  That is a major concern.  History tells us certain players are much more inclined to get serious concussions.  Rosen seems to be in that category.   Rosen starts to slide 

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Josh Allen intrigued  me when we had the 6th pick in the NFL draft.  Now that we have the 3rd pick part of me wants Baker Mayfield and part of me just doesn't know. 

We all have our favorites and our guys we dont' like...We moved up, that's done...

We know the Jets have absolutely done their due dilligence on all of these guys - for well over a year now.

All we can hope for at this point is they put all the outside noise aside, media, fans, other teams etc...and take the person they think will be the best QB...

Whoever it is I'll be excited...

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Shurmur was a HC once before and that went pretty bad. Do you think he wants the Giants to take Barkley or a QB that may not play for a year (or 2) sitting behind Eli? Either way, Gettleman doesn't seem like a "poll the room" kind of GM.  

I think the head coach who specializes in quarterback development will want a quarterback to develop. Gettleman didn’t take a quarterback during his time in Carolina because he inherited a 26 year old Cam Newton.

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

The point being, Bates’ greatest success came while working with Cutler, who shares a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses as Allen. Cutler isn’t your prototype “WCO” QB at all either.

Cutler was the QB he coached when he ran the offense he’s about to install for the Jets.  

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Greenseed4 said:

Cutler was the QB he coached when he ran the offense he’s about to install for the Jets.  

THIS IS MY POINT GREEN SEED FOUR

[Greensleeves]

5 hours ago, choon328 said:

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

I feel like this is a strong possibility. One hand you have everyone saying how tight lipped the Jets are this year and on the other hand everyone knows they will pick Mayfield based on "what they are hearing." It can't be both. I think if Rosen is there he is a Jet. I'm still a bit worried about the Giants taking him or allowing someone else to take him.

[Thai Jet]

41 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Doesn’t help Eli though.  Barkley will make gettleman look good right away.

Errrr I never mentioned the Giants. Just talkin bout Cleveland taking Allen over Darnold.

[kthisguy]

It seems Darnold, Rosen and Allen are suffering from prospect fatigue. They have been on everyone’s radar since the end of 2016 season. Mayfield is the new shiny prospect at the moment. Reporters, talking heads and fans need something new to talk about and he is it.

With the Jets at three I have no doubt that they probably have a 1,2,3 in preferences in the qbs. If they get the Browns or giants (to take or via trade) get Barkley taken ahead of them they get a better chance at a higher rated qb. If they can pump up a QB they don’t want and make someone jump to #2 then it’s better for them.


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[Greenseed4]

18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

THIS IS MY POINT GREEN SEED FOUR

YOUR point is that he had his greatest success with Cutler-player.

MY point is that he had Cutler when he had his greatest success running the Shanny-system. 

Together, OUR points are that a strong-armed gunslinger with a 50% completion rate (whether from Vanderbilt or Laramie), doesn’t matter in the “west coast” system we’re installing. 

The worst part of Cutler’s game is his ‘crybaby’ attitude, and if you take the Rosen out of Cutler, you’re left with Josh Allen. 

[RSJ]

I would bet money that this is how it goes:
1. Browns: Darnold—Prevailing rumor is they’re torn between Allen and Darnold. I’m guessing that Darnold checks a few more boxes than Allen does and Dorsey, along with OC/Future Interim HC Todd Haley, takes the safer bet.
 
2. Giants: Rosen—Prevailing rumor is Saquon Barkley or Trade Out. I don’t see how it makes any sense to pass on a QB when you have a new regime inheriting a nearly washed-up QB going into a season where they’d realistically be lucky to start out 2-5. The new HC is a nerd QB guru, the new OC is a nerd QB guru, and Rosen is a nerd QB. Also factor in that the Giants can save $17 million against the cap by dumping Eli after this season, and aren’t going to give him another contract anyway. Gettleman’s heart may be set on the ground and pound, but his brain—and everyone else in the organization with a vote—doesn’t let him screw this pick up.
 
3. Jets: Allen—Prevailing rumor has been Mayfield! Mayfield! Mayfield! Allen has become the human trophy in the ongoing war between Analaytics Geeks and Football Guyz and the Jets, under Maccagnan, haven’t shown a shred of interest in applying analytics at ANY position, much less QB. The relentless screaming-from-the-mount about them being set on Mayfield was a pretty transparent and ham-fisted attempt at misdirection, and a new rumor to that effect appeared every time there was a rumor floated about the Giants possibly trading out. Bowles doesn’t want to coach any player that will actually require him to assert discipline, and Rosen and Mayfield are both high maintenance personalities. But not big ol’ Josh Allen, who’s just happy to be there (gosh golly). Allen also comes with the added bonus of not being close to ready to play, which paves the way for Bowles to keep rolling Josh McCown out there in perpetuity. 
4. Bills: Mayfield—The prevailing rumor is that the Bills are desperate to trade up for a QB and that the QB they love the most is Mayfield. At last count, the Bills have worked Mayfield out four different times, so when they see him get past the Jets, they’ll give the Browns a mess of picks to get their guy at 4. Buffalo is very much the Norman, Oklahoma of the north, so it’s a perfect marriage on many levels.
5. Broncos: Barkley—Elway would have taken Mayfield, but will get stuck with Case Keenum and Paxton Lynch as his QBs, so he supplements them both with Barkley. Barkley actually has a lot of weirdly scary stats that suggests he’s not going to be a dominant back in the pros.

I think this is 100% spot on. Darnold and Allen are the Jets top targets and Allen will be there I believe. Mayfield is the fallback.


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[varjet]

It is hard to predict what the Jets do, because what they do is dependent upon what the two teams above them do.

In this draft, unlike many others, we really don’t have the slightest clue as to what the two teams above us do, although logically Darnold and Barkley should be picked first, in some order.  That may not happen.

So hopefully the Jets have a 2-5 year vision of what they want to accomplish and what type of team they want to be.  That is hard when they are getting ready to pick at 3 with a GM and HC who will likely not last long.  

[Augustiniak]

Just now, RSJ said:

 

 

I think this is 100% spot on. Darnold and Allen are the Jets top targets and Allen will be there I believe. Mayfield is the fallback.


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I still disagree that allen is a target.  He is a very poor fit in the bates offense and i think there’s a higher probability that bates is here next year than bowles.  

[RSJ]

It is hard to predict what the Jets do, because what they do is dependent upon what the two teams above them do.
In this draft, unlike many others, we really don’t have the slightest clue as to what the two teams above us do, although logically Darnold and Barkley should be picked first, in some order.  That may not happen.
So hopefully the Jets have a 2-5 year vision of what they want to accomplish and what type of team they want to be.  That is hard when they are getting ready to pick at 3 with a GM and HC who will likely not last long.  

People say that a lot - but I dont agree. Chris Johnson has shown the patience to see this rebuild through. This doesnt feel like Woodys quick trigger finger to bring in a carnival barker and sell PSLs. If the team is competitive and showing improvement these guys will stick around and I honest cant see a scenery where that doesnt happen.


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[RSJ]

I still disagree that allen is a target.  He is a very poor fit in the bates offense and i think there’s a higher probability that bates is here next year than bowles.  

 

That is something repeated all the time that couldnt be further from the truth. Favre Cutler and Elway played in this system. All had career years in it. Two won super bowls. This system is good for increasing a gunslingers accuracy by creating more high percentage throws by design. The west coast offenses theory is checkdown or touchdown. Allen isnt Vinny T. He has good mobility. This creates more high percentage throws. Boootlegs etc.

 

 

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[Augustiniak]

Just now, RSJ said:

 

That is something repeated all the time that couldnt be further from the truth. Favre Cutler and Elway played in this system. All had career years in it. Two won super bowls. This system is good for increasing a gunslingers accuracy by creating more high percentage throws by design. The west coast offenses theory is checkdown or touchdown. Allen isnt Vinny T. He has good mobility.


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Two other issues are that allen probably won’t play this year, and that they also traded 2 good 2nd round picks.  Whether we like it or not, i doubt chris Johnson will be on board with drafting allen, then telling all the fans that we are in for another year of mccown, making it 4 straight years of castoff veteran qbs.  I just don’t see this as the plan.  

I think bates has been very involved in scouting these qbs, my guess is that he is on firmer ground in the organization than bowles, they have already invested a lot in this qb and they would be foolish if they let bowles be the primary guiding influence.  

The assumption when they traded to #3 was the darnold would not be there, and i do believe it is telling that the jets did not schedule private visits for allen or darnold until much later.  I think the whole plan was to draft mayfield or Rosen and have that guy hopefully play well in preseason and maybe even start opening day.  We have to remember there is still chris Johnson involved, mccagnan desperately needs his qb to show something sooner than later, and allen is a disaster pr waiting to happen.  

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Two other issues are that allen probably won’t play this year, and that they also traded 2 good 2nd round picks.  Whether we like it or not, i doubt chris Johnson will be on board with drafting allen, then telling all the fans that we are in for another year of mccown, making it 4 straight years of castoff veteran qbs.  I just don’t see this as the plan.  

I think bates has been very involved in scouting these qbs, my guess is that he is on firmer ground in the organization than bowles, they have already invested a lot in this qb and they would be foolish if they let bowles be the primary guiding influence.  

The assumption when they traded to #3 was the darnold would not be there, and i do believe it is telling that the jets did not schedule private visits for allen or darnold until much later.  I think the whole plan was to draft mayfield or Rosen and have that guy hopefully play well in preseason and maybe even start opening day.  We have to remember there is still chris Johnson involved, mccagnan desperately needs his qb to show something sooner than later, and allen is a disaster pr waiting to happen.  

I think you could have prevented another year of McCown by not giving McCown a $10 million dollar contract.

[RSJ]

Two other issues are that allen probably won’t play this year, and that they also traded 2 good 2nd round picks.  Whether we like it or not, i doubt chris Johnson will be on board with drafting allen, then telling all the fans that we are in for another year of mccown, making it 4 straight years of castoff veteran qbs.  I just don’t see this as the plan.  

I think bates has been very involved in scouting these qbs, my guess is that he is on firmer ground in the organization than bowles, they have already invested a lot in this qb and they would be foolish if they let bowles be the primary guiding influence.  

The assumption when they traded to #3 was the darnold would not be there, and i do believe it is telling that the jets did not schedule private visits for allen or darnold until much later.  I think the whole plan was to draft mayfield or Rosen and have that guy hopefully play well in preseason and maybe even start opening day.  We have to remember there is still chris Johnson involved, mccagnan desperately needs his qb to show something sooner than later, and allen is a disaster pr waiting to happen.  

 

Another incorrect rumor. Why would anyone assume Allen wont play this year? He played in as much of a pro system as anyone in college. He also has the extra ability to scramble around and make plays like Big Ben. Mayfield is the one who will most likely have to sit the longest before starting. His ad lib plays wont work in the NFL. He will need to be disciplined and accurate to succeed. Which he can be with time. I mean do you think Josh Allen is a statue who played his college ball in an air raid offense? Because thats what it sounds like.

 

We disagree. The plan is to hope Allen or Darnold are there. If not its Mayfield or Rosen.

 

 

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[Augustiniak]

Just now, T0mShane said:

I think you could have prevented another year of McCown by not giving McCown a $10 million dollar contract.

Like it or not i think part of the money is to train the rookie qb.  And which rookie qbs need the most guidance with social/maturity:  Rosen and mayfield.  Which qbs fit bates’ system the best:  Rosen and mayfield. Which qbs are most likely to be there at #3:  Rosen and mayfield.  

[varjet]

12 minutes ago, RSJ said:

 

That is something repeated all the time that couldnt be further from the truth. Favre Cutler and Elway played in this system. All had career years in it. Two won super bowls. This system is good for increasing a gunslingers accuracy by creating more high percentage throws by design. The west coast offenses theory is checkdown or touchdown. Allen isnt Vinny T. He has good mobility. This creates more high percentage throws. Boootlegs etc.

 

 

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I think by Thanksgiving we are going to see a defensive head coach for a team with a lousy defense coordinating by a fool, and 4 years of mediocre or less drafts with a possible QB of the future throwing on the sideline.  The Hack, Smith, Mauldin and Stewart picks will not pan out, and Anderson will implode.  It will be time for a change.  

[Augustiniak]

Just now, RSJ said:

 

Another incorrect rumor. Why would anyone assume Allen wont play this year? He played in as much of a pro system as anyone in college. He also has the extra ability to scramble around and make plays like Big Ben. Mayfield is the one who will most likely have to sit the longest before starting. I mean do you think Josh Allen is a statue who played his college ball in an air raid offense? Because thats what it sounds like.

We disagree. The plan is to hope Allen or Darnold are there. If not its Mayfield or Rosen.


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Most ‘experts’ say allen needs the most work, and therefore, the most time sitting.  

That said, i think there is a fighting chance that darnold falls to us.

[JustInFudge]

1. Darnold 2. Barley 3. Allen

its a lock

[Gangrene]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

3. Jets: Allen—Prevailing rumor has been Mayfield! Mayfield! Mayfield! Allen has become the human trophy in the ongoing war between Analaytics Geeks and Football Guyz and the Jets, under Maccagnan, haven’t shown a shred of interest in applying analytics at ANY position, much less QB.

Allen at 3 has the makings of a Geek tragedy. The PFF Geek chorus retelling the  "We told you his analytics sucked over-inflated Brady balls" story of the Jets.  Hackenberg hunting deer in dense undergrowth at the back of the stage set, while Allen brightly lit under the stage lights faces a sea of mikes in a post game conference. "It's all on me, our team never gave up... I am proud of the way we fought today...we're going to fix this."

Bring it on ! I hope the Laramie Kid is a superstar

[RSJ]

Most ‘experts’ say allen needs the most work, and therefore, the most time sitting.  
That said, i think there is a fighting chance that darnold falls to us.

Most experts arent doing this in the NFL for a reason. I dont think the Jets can go wrong with either pick. But in the top 5 of a draft you always pick the bigger guy with more upside. Always. And idk if theres any poll but I see most of the experts all over the place with these guys. Pretty typical really of any draft.

I think if Allen gets picked first it could go either way with the Giants. But I feel the highest percentage right now is 1) Darnold 2) Barkley 3) Allen




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[jetstream23]

6 hours ago, choon328 said:

Since the beginning of this draft process there has been pretty much a steady diet of either Darnold or Allen going 1 or 2 in this draft with Barkley and Chubb as an option at 2 as well as a trade out of 2. The only question was at 3 if the Jets would take Rosen or Mayfield. I would say that 2 weeks ago the large majority of mock drafts had the Jets taking Rosen in that scenario and now that has completely flipped. Why is that?

 

There has been this narrative out there recently that the Jets love Mayfield and he's their guy. There has been two speculated reasons as to why that narrative is the way it is. 1) The agent is trying to pump up his value, 2) The Jets can't keep a secret and tipped their hand.

 

After thinking about it for a while tonight I think I've come up with another reasonable narrative.  And that is this...

 

Since the talk of Mayfield being the Jets pick another narrative has begun and that is that Rosen will fall. Some have him going outside of the top 10 which makes no sense for the QB who in league circles is valued as the best pure QB In the draft. Without his concussions and personality being overblown (I'm sure the majority of players in the draft have had multiple concussions already) he's the #1 pick all day. So here's my theory.

 

The Jets have purposely inflated their love for Mayfield.  This narrative has now created buzz that Rosen may slip out of at least the top 5 and it wouldn't be necessary for a team like Denver to move to 2 or a team like Buffalo to give up all of those picks to move to 2 when they may be able to get him at 5 or 6 for much cheaper.  There was also a report by Rappaport that the Bills are now targeting the 5th pick.  This protects against the Jets losing out on their real target Josh Rosen. Since the perception is that the Giants won't let the Jets move to 2 then creating a false narrative that everybody has bitten hook line and sinker is the natural play here. Thanks for reading.

Did you see this thread... 

 

 

You're suggesting Reason #2 in the thread I linked and I definitely think that's it for the reasons I stated.  This has been the Darnold and Rosen draft for the better part of 24 months.  Those have always been "the guys" and things only changed AFTER the college football season ended and we entered speculation, misinformation and uninformed opinion season!  Rosen shouldn't go lower than #2 in this Draft.

 

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Doesn’t help Eli though.  Barkley will make gettleman look good right away.

Taking a QB helps Gettleman not get run out of town in 2 years when Eli is done.  He can get a RB with the second pick in Round 2 this year.

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, RSJ said:

 

Most experts arent doing this in the NFL for a reason. I dont think the Jets can go wrong with either pick. But in the top 5 of a draft you always pick the bigger guy with more upside. Always. And idk if theres any poll but I see most of the experts all over the place with these guys. Pretty typical really of any draft.

I think if Allen gets picked first it could go either way with the Giants. But I feel the highest percentage right now is 1) Darnold 2) Barkley 3) Allen




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Actually i think the highest percentage right now is allen/darnold.  

[RSJ]

Actually i think the highest percentage right now is allen/darnold.  

Thats fair. I do think those are the best two QBs in the draft. I just think the Giants are going to pick Barkley or Chubb. Because I think their roster and free agents say they are trying to make one more run with Eli. But I could be totally wrong about that.


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[joewilly12]

Im scared of the thought of the NY Jets blowing this pick. 

[jetstream23]

Just now, joewilly12 said:

Im scared of the thought of the NY Jets blowing this pick. 

Don't worry, man.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They will. 

[joewilly12]

Just now, jetstream23 said:

Don't worry, man.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They will. 

54 years a fan of this team since birth, hoping for the best expecting the worst. 

[Greensleeves]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I'm absolutely convinced the Giants will take Allen.  He's perfect for them.

Only QB that won't put any pressure on Eli, even possibly for two years - gives them time and the ability to be patient.  The fans won't even pressure the Giants to play him - it's perfect.

He has the best potential to be a HOF''er as Gettleman stated he wanted (also the biggest bust potential)

Darnold, Allen - Jet's take Rosen (which is the only guy I don't want) Mayfield goes 5 to Denver.  As Cleveland isnt passing on Barkley.

 

This would be best case scenario for me and for the Jets IMO. The best pocket passer in the draft, great fit for New York, plus, none of the top 4 QBs go to anyone in our division.