Sam Darnold is the riskiest QB in this class

[nico002]

I love Darnold, and I’d take him at 3- but he is the biggest boom or bust qb in this class. By FAR the least ready to play next year.

- has played the least QB of any of top 5

- is most behind in terms of X/Os, tan simplest most controlled scheme in college 

- turnover prone 

- doesn’t have elite physical tools to overcome some of the issue above 

look, the guy has moxie, leadership, great instincts, and seemingly that “it factor”... but he is a HUGE RISK.

If you take Darnold you are sitting him for a year- at least. Are you sure the Browns and Jets want that?

[UntouchableCrew]

I don't think he's a bigger risk than Allen (who will almost surely bust) but I agree, he's much more of a risk/project than most people realize.

I would absolutely sit him for a year. He's only 20 and I'm not sure he's as emotionally ready to handle the NY media as Rosen or Mayfield (who I'd start right away.) 

[Thai Jet]

I didn't realize that he played the least of any of the top 5 QB's.  I think perhaps a lot of Darnold's turnover problems (fumbles) might be because of his small hands. That would be of concern in cold weather places like NY or Cleveland.

Can't hear his name and not think of his performance against Penn St. in the 2017 Rose Bowl. He was red hot.

[BCJet]

Agree that Darnold needs to sit for a year, which is why McCown was/is so valuable to this team.  If the pick is Darnold, we should make 2018 about his development behind the scenes and hopefully getting TB healthy enough to play a few games to see what he brings to the table.  At most Darnold should start 2 or 3 games to get used to the speed of the NFL.

Then use the offseason for him to continue to develop and have the full 2019 TC to take reps as the starter and be ready to take the reins for opening day 2019.

If we pick Mayfield, he isnt losing the job and will be our starter this season and hopefully sticks with Mccown day in and day out to learn how to be a pro.

[BurnleyJet]

All QB's are a risk, but Sam is not on the serious list at all. Now Allen on the other hand.. 

[FTL Jet Fan]

Trying not to let past biases towards USC quarterbacks with less than 2 years playing time and only one dominant year cloud my judgment. Darnold scares me as do the others. 

[nycdan]

18 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

I didn't realize that he played the least of any of the top 5 QB's.  I think perhaps a lot of Darnold's turnover problems (fumbles) might be because of his small hands. That would be of concern in cold weather places like NY or Cleveland.

Can't hear his name and not think of his performance against Penn St. in the 2017 Rose Bowl. He was red hot.

Interesting bit of data on recent top QB hand sizes.  Goff and Mahomes with tiny claws but they both play in warmer climates.  If this actually matters, it would be worth noting Mayfield has 9 1/8" hands and Rosen has 9 7/8" hands.

 

[Freemanm]

It doesn't matter, the Browns are going to select him, start him right away and then his career is going fizzle out before it even has a chance to begin, much like DeShone Kizer's.

The NFL really should have some sort of lottery system for the top three picks. It's really gotten ridiculous that the Browns have gotten a top three pick every year for forever and yet haven't improved in the slightest way.

I hope Kizer gets traded to a team that will properly develop him. Everyone knew he'd be a project QB but with the potential to be very good.

[dbatesman]

Actuallt, the guy who put up sub-Hackenberg numbers in the Mountain West is the riskiest QB in this class. But yes, the turnovers and the low start total are major concerns for Darnold.

[JiFtheOracle]

8 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The guy who put up sub-Hackenberg numbers in the Mountain West is the riskiest QB in this class. But yes, the turnovers and the low start total are major concerns.

No doubt and there's also this:

Sam Darnold - 27 career starts - 846 pass attempts

Josh Allen - 25 career starts - 649 pass attempts

But I like the OP's conviction. 

[Thai Jet]

9 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Interesting bit of data on recent top QB hand sizes.  Goff and Mahomes with tiny claws but they both play in warmer climates.  If this actually matters, it would be worth noting Mayfield has 9 1/8" hands and Rosen has 9 7/8" hands.

 

I had posted the top 4 QB hand sizes in a prior topic but did not include data from current players. I figured Wentz had big hands but Goff surprised me. Smaller than Mayfields. Allen's hand size is 10 1/8" .

An interesting note is that 6'5" Mason Rudolph has small hands at 9 1/4 "

[sourceworx]

I think people are ignoring a lot of Darnold's red flags. The guy turned the ball over a lot while playing in the PAC 12. That isn't likely to improve when he starts playing against guys in the NFL. Also for all of the knocks against Josh Allen for playing poorly against tougher opponents, Darnold wasn't so great either. Yet no one seems to bring that up.   

To me, Darnold's playing style is somewhere between Brett Favre and Big Ben. That would be great if he had Favre's arm talent and/or Ben's size. They had physical traits that allowed them to get away with things that others couldn't. Darnold does not have those traits, and I think it's going to get him in trouble in the NFL. It already did to a degree in college last year.

I think people were mesmerized by that Rose Bowl performance against Penn State, and they've allowed it to cloud their judgement. If the Jets take him I will support him 100%. But I honestly don't see what's so great about him. I really don't.

[Thai Jet]

41 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Trying not to let past biases towards USC quarterbacks with less than 2 years playing time and only one dominant year cloud my judgment. Darnold scares me as do the others. 

They all have "something" to be concerned about. No clear cut #1.

[New York Mick]

Allen then Mayflower then Jackson. All of them are a huge risk. Great ceiling but a huge floor as well. Rosen has issues as well and then Darnold. 

Every QB draft class has risk this year it just seems like it’s more in the mix. 

[CTM]

They're all pretty risky tbh.

Mayfields statistical profile is best but it's underminded by his stature, character concerns and that it comes from a high performing offense/conference. 

Rosen looks the best on the field to me but I think he has significant durability concerns

Allen's shortcomings are obvious and Darnold has the turn overs, low start count and poor mechanics

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

They're all pretty risky tbh.

Mayfields statistical profile is best but it's underminded by his stature, character concerns and that it comes from a high performing offense/conference. 

Rosen looks the best on the field to me but I think he has significant durability concerns

Allen's shortcomings are obvious and Darnold has the turn overs, low start count and poor mechanics

I can’t think of a better year to trade up!

[HawkeyeJet]

I've always thought Darnold was considerably overvalued.  It is petty, but I find myself disliking him more and more each day simply due to the number of people that completely ignore his huge flaws.  

There are TONS of people that hate Mayfield.  Tons.  If you are looking at on the field product, Darnold has more red flags than Mayfield, but for some reason very few are willing to acknowledge it. 

Rosen vs Darnold on the field isn't even close.

Of the top 4 QBs, when you look at on field product and count the red flags, Darnold is closer to Allen then he is to Mayfield or Rosen.  He seemingly gets a free pass from the vast majority though.

[sourceworx]

13 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Allen then Mayflower then Jackson. All of them are a huge risk. Great ceiling but a huge floor as well. Rosen has issues as well and then Darnold. 

Every QB draft class has risk this year it just seems like it’s more in the mix. 

All of them have warts, I agree.

However I think Rosen is the safest pick. He's the one I'm most confident will not suck. The talk about his attitude is noise to me. Doesn't bother me in the least. If it weren't for the injury concerns, there would be no doubt that he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

Allen has the biggest bust potential, but he also has once in a generation physical traits. This is why he's in the conversation to be the top pick.

I think the concerns about Mayfield's height are overblown. My concerns with him are his maturity and (more importantly) the fact that he comes from a college spread system that is known to pad a QB's stats. However the kid stepped it up against tough opponents, and that counts for a lot with me.

I already listed my issues with Darnold in my previous post. I think he needs a lot more work than people think. Not as much as Allen does, but he has a long way to go.

So if someone asked me what "my board" looks like, it would be:

1. Rosen
2. Mayfield
3. Darnold
4. Allen

[Peteo]

I don't know that Darnold poses the most risk but I do think he is 3 or 4 on the list.  I prefer the Jets get Rosen or Mayfield.

[flgreen]

"Cow on ice"   LOL

Actually I'd like Darnold at 3 by when I read that quote it cracked me up

[Greenseed4]

30 minutes ago, JiF said:

No doubt and there's also this:

Sam Darnold - 27 career starts - 846 pass attempts

Josh Allen - 25 career starts - 649 pass attempts

But I like the OP's conviction. 

Josh Allen played juco before transferring.  Like 10 games. 

[Thai Jet]

 

2 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

I think people were mesmerized by that Rose Bowl performance against Penn State, and they've allowed it to cloud their judgement. If the Jets take him I will support him 100%. But I honestly don't see what's so great about him. I really don't.

It was hard NOT to be mesmerized watching that game. It reminded me of the 1963 Rose Bowl. Wisconsin's QB Ron Vander Kelen led a furious 4th qtr comeback against USC. 23 unanswered 4th qtr. points in a losing effort (42-37) . He led Wisconsin to 32 1st downs (still a Rosebowl record) . He was 33 of 48 passing (both records till 1995) for 401 yds. , another record at the time.

My point. Vander Kelen was not drafted by the NFL and was picked in the 21st round of the AFL (by the NY Titans) but I still remember that one game performance. It was mesmerizing.

BTW: Although drafted by the Titans he signed with the Vikings as a UDFA. Played 5 years in the NFL.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

This game was tough to watch. Reminded me of Josh Allen's game vs Nebraska.

 

[Thai Jet]

9 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

All of them have warts, I agree.

However I think Rosen is the safest pick. He's the one I'm most confident will not suck. The talk about his attitude is noise to me. Doesn't bother me in the least. If it weren't for the injury concerns, there would be no doubt that he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

Allen has the biggest bust potential, but he also has once in a generation physical traits. This is why he's in the conversation to be the top pick.

 

Rosen's durability and potential to say F**K  IT and just walk away from the game really scares me. More so that Mayfields height concerns. With Mayfield you see a kid who really loves football , is committed to it and wants to excel in it. I just don't get that feeling with Rosen.

[Titan24]

All have risks as basically any qb ever drafted has: 

have gone back and forth between all 4 but have come to conclusion Rosen is the guy they should take

[Bruce Harper]

1 hour ago, nico002 said:

I love Darnold, and I’d take him at 3- but he is the biggest boom or bust qb in this class. By FAR the least ready to play next year.

- has played the least QB of any of top 5

- is most behind in terms of X/Os, tan simplest most controlled scheme in college 

- turnover prone 

- doesn’t have elite physical tools to overcome some of the issue above 

look, the guy has moxie, leadership, great instincts, and seemingly that “it factor”... but he is a HUGE RISK.

If you take Darnold you are sitting him for a year- at least. Are you sure the Browns and Jets want that?

If you think he is less ready that Allen, you are incorrect.  I think he will start as a rookie, wherever he goes.

[CTM]

1 minute ago, Titan24 said:

All have risks as basically any qb ever drafted has: 

have gone back and forth between all 4 but have come to conclusion Rosen is the guy they should take

I'm having a hard time getting passed the injury stuff with Rosen. He looks like a Bradford/Pennington type to me and I believe has missed 8 of his last 19 starts. They hit harder in the pros which doesn't bode well

[Paradis]

Still don't know what the risks are associated with Mayfield... The others have concerns you can't point to and say "hey, this has been a problem..."   That doesn't exist for Baker.

[Bruce Harper]

23 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Josh Allen played juco before transferring.  Like 10 games. 

Where he had a 49% completion rate.  But boy, what tools!

[Bruce Harper]

11 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

This game was tough to watch. Reminded me of Josh Allen's game vs Nebraska.

 

Mayfield looked very good against Ohio State (yes, I know, better supporting cast, but just sayin').

[Untouchable]

All of these QB’s are a risk 

Contrary to what many of us believed 8 months ago, there is no Andrew Luck “sure thing” prospect in this draft.

But I’d still take Darnold over the others. The INT’s aren’t even a big concern to me, it’s the fumbles. And frankly, that’s mostly due to him not keeping his off-hand on the ball while in the pocket. That’s a pretty easy fix IMO.

He has a solid build, good arm, throws with great anticipation, is accurate, people rave about his leadership qualities, he doesn’t get flustered, and he’s a solid athlete.

I might sacrifice a goat tonight in the hopes that the Browns and Giants are a bunch of incompetent dickholes that let him fall right into our laps and Macc has the sense to take him.

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Freemanm said:

It doesn't matter, the Browns are going to select him, start him right away and then his career is going fizzle out before it even has a chance to begin, much like DeShone Kizer's.

The NFL really should have some sort of lottery system for the top three picks. It's really gotten ridiculous that the Browns have gotten a top three pick every year for forever and yet haven't improved in the slightest way.

I hope Kizer gets traded to a team that will properly develop him. Everyone knew he'd be a project QB but with the potential to be very good.

Kizer did get traded to GB. Sitting behind Rogers will certainly help him.

[JiFtheOracle]

51 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Josh Allen played juco before transferring.  Like 10 games. 

I legit, did not know that.  Thanks! 

[TuscanyTile2]

29 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

All of these QB’s are a risk 

Contrary to what many of us believed 8 months ago, there is no Andrew Luck “sure thing” prospect in this draft.

But I’d still take Darnold over the others. The INT’s aren’t even a big concern to me, it’s the fumbles. And frankly, that’s mostly due to him not keeping his off-hand on the ball while in the pocket. That’s a pretty easy fix IMO.

He has a solid build, good arm, throws with great anticipation, is accurate, people rave about his leadership qualities, he doesn’t get flustered, and he’s a solid athlete.

I might sacrifice a goat tonight in the hopes that the Browns and Giants are a bunch of incompetent dickholes that let him fall right into our laps and Macc has the sense to take him.

Can that goat be Tom Brady?  

[GreenFish]

1 hour ago, Freemanm said:

It doesn't matter, the Browns are going to select him, start him right away and then his career is going fizzle out before it even has a chance to begin, much like DeShone Kizer's.

The NFL really should have some sort of lottery system for the top three picks. It's really gotten ridiculous that the Browns have gotten a top three pick every year for forever and yet haven't improved in the slightest way.

I hope Kizer gets traded to a team that will properly develop him. Everyone knew he'd be a project QB but with the potential to be very good.

Meanwhile, the last time the Jets have had a top 3 pick was back in 1996 when we took Keyshawn Johnson.