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Good read on QBs from Rotoword


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http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79481/472/the-big-four

Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round last year. This year, we could see four signal-callers go in the first five picks. However it shakes out—the Browns are still mulling between Josh Allen and Sam Darnold while the Jets are having a similar debate over Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen—it’s clear that this year’s crop of quarterbacks is unusually deep and perhaps as polarizing as any we’ve seen in recent memory. Many evaluators have Allen as the top quarterback in the draft and just as many aren’t even sure if he belongs in the first round. You know it’s a bizarre year for the position when a former Heisman Trophy winner (Lamar Jackson) is considered the fifth-best signal-caller in his class.

 

It’s mayhem and that’s how we prefer it here at Rotoworld. Who needs another cookie-cutter, drama-free draft night? Let the Giants defy football logic by drafting Saquon Barkley instead of a franchise quarterback. Let New England trade up to land its QB of the future (for real this time). Let the Bills and Cardinals slug it out for Rosen when the Jets, Broncos and Browns all pass on him. The more chaos, the better. The draft comes but once a year. Let’s milk it for all its worth.

 

I’m ready for sparks to fly on Thursday night. To get in the mood, I spent most of yesterday watching film of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class. I only watched tape from 2017 and I’ll admit I’m no Josh Norris or Thor Nystrom when it comes to scouting, but I’ve at least watched enough to form an opinion on each player. I think the four quarterbacks—I narrowed my scope to Allen, Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen—offer a number of similarities but also some very stark contrasts. It’s hard to condense 22 pages of hand-written notes (my pen is out of ink) into an article of normal human length (this is probably why David Foster Wallace gave us Infinite Jest instead of devoting his time to NFL mock drafts), but I’ll give it my best shot. Here goes.

 

Josh Allen, Wyoming

 

Strengths: Even if you’ve never seen Josh Allen play—as a non-power-five school, Wyoming doesn’t get as much press as the Oklahomas and USCs of the world—there’s a good chance you’ve heard about his rocket arm. And after popping in his game film from last year, I can tell you, the hype is real. Allen easily has the biggest arm in this year’s draft class and maybe the entire NFL once he gets there. Homeboy can throw a mean fastball (which makes sense, since he was a high school pitcher). The measurables are all there—he’s built like Carson Wentz (aka, he’s huge), his hands are enormous and he ran the fastest 40 of any quarterback in this year’s class.

 

 

There’s definitely a Ben Roethlisberger element to Allen’s game. He’s great at extending plays with his feet and is known for his master improvising. I was blown away by some of the Houdini-esque escapes he made under pressure. That skill set will serve him well in the big leagues. He’s not a burner per se (4.75 forty), but Allen definitely moves well for his size and can juke defenders in the open field with his nasty stutter step. I also noticed Allen was adept at getting defenders to bite on his pump fake, which allows his receivers more time to gain separation downfield. Allen had to deal with some adverse weather conditions at Wyoming—it snowed in the second half against Colorado State last season—which will help if he winds up in a cold weather city like Cleveland or New York.

 

Weaknesses: The tools are all there but Allen still has a long way to go. He’s a definite project and not someone a team could realistically expect to start Week 1. Allen is probably in for a red-shirt year anyway—Tyrod Taylor will serve as the Browns’ starter while Allen would likely back up Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater in New York—but the fact remains that he has a lot of rough edges to smooth out. Of Allen’s many red flags, the one that scares me most is his inaccuracy. I’d notice stretches within a game where he’d throw three or four passes in a row that weren’t even close to his intended target. And many of them weren’t hard throws. I can’t tell you how many times Allen would overthrow his receiver or sail a routine screen pass. Even some of his completions were underwhelming. Watching his film, there were many times I’d expect Allen to hit his receiver in stride, only to see him underthrow it or lead his receiver in the wrong direction.

 

I think the general takeaway here is that Allen just isn’t as polished as Rosen, Mayfield or even Darnold. He’s bigger and faster, but what’s all that arm strength good for when you’re not precise with your passes? Some of his mistakes (thankfully he kept the interceptions to a minimum with only six) were just plain lazy. Throwing bad balls into tight coverage, not giving his passes the proper touch. It was frustrating to watch. The way to fix that would probably be to clean up his mechanics. Countless times I saw Allen make the cardinal sin of throwing across his body. His footwork was also a nightmare with too many back-foot throws. Allen needs to realize he’s not Derek Jeter. He has to set his feet and step into his passes.

 

In terms of his supporting cast, Allen probably had less to work with than the other quarterbacks we’ll discuss (what an embarrassment of riches Mayfield had at Oklahoma). But I was still alarmed by his subpar stats (only 16 TDs and 1,812 passing yards), especially playing in the Mountain West. I think with good coaching Allen could overcome these flaws, but there’s definitely a level of risk here that doesn’t exist with the other three. Mel Kiper says stats are for losers and obviously the Barstool guys are in his corner, but I think it would be a mistake for the Browns to hitch their wagon to Allen, the ultimate boom-or-bust prospect.

 

Sam Darnold, USC

 

Strengths: If it’s between Allen and Darnold for the No. 1 pick—which seems to be the case—then by all means give me Darnold. That may come across as a pretty tepid endorsement but the truth is, there’s a lot to like about Darnold’s game. He’s no Michael Vick, but Darnold still made plenty of plays with his feet last season. He rolls out a ton and makes his living off play-action. USC was Screen City last year with Ronald Jones and Stephen Carr catching passes out of the backfield. Screens, slants, back-shoulder fades, wheel routes, you name it—when it comes to anything short or intermediate, Darnold is money. I think all the first-round quarterbacks are fairly good improvisers and that definitely applies to Darnold, who made some truly heroic plays both throwing and scrambling against pressure. Though I think he leaves the pocket too much, Darnold has an uncanny ability to make throws on the run. From what I saw, Darnold often hit his receivers in stride and though I don’t consider it his bread and butter, he can pop off a deep ball when you really need one. Also, he totally laid a dude out blocking for his teammate against UCLA. I don’t know what you’re supposed to do with that information, but I thought it was cool. 

 

Weaknesses: Compared to the other quarterbacks I’m highlighting, Darnold’s release is a tad slow. I heard one analyst compare his circular throwing motion to Russell Wilson’s. I don’t think it’s a major stumbling block to Darnold having success at the next level—clearly it hasn’t hindered Wilson—but it’s something to be aware of. In Darnold’s defense, I think his arm strength more than makes up for any perceived flaw in his delivery.

 

I understand this was an adjustment year for USC’s offense after losing JuJu Smith-Schuster to the NFL, but I was stunned at how many turnovers Darnold committed in 2017. He cleaned it up as the year went on but there was a six-game stretch where Darnold threw nine interceptions. A few of them were unlucky—there were a couple instances where USC receivers literally dropped the ball right into the hands of opposing DBs—but most were the result of poor decision-making. Darnold is an accurate enough passer that he can gamble once in a while but too many times I saw him force really difficult passes into tight coverage. That’s been the main criticism of Jameis Winston throughout his career. Coincidentally, Josh Norris named Winston as Darnold’s closest NFL comparison.

 

Darnold also took an inordinate amount of sacks last year. Part of that can be blamed on the Trojans’ offensive line—he was legit running for his life against Ohio State—but Darnold also needs to improve his awareness and know when to get rid of the football. Maybe Darnold just didn’t feel as comfortable throwing downfield without JuJu, but I was surprised at how little success he had stretching the field. Darnold had plenty of long completions but a good chunk of those came on screens and slants where the receivers/running backs did most of the work. In fact, in the Cal game, Darnold completed just 1-of-10 passes beyond 10 yards. It went for a gain of 14. As I said earlier, I’d take Darnold over Allen, but not ahead of Mayfield or Rosen.   

 

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

 

Strengths: We know Mayfield is a prickly fellow but how many times have you seen Tom Brady blow up at his offensive coordinator? Even if he’s somewhat psychotic, I’d much rather have a rabid competitor like Mayfield than a stone-faced Jay Cutler who would rather be anywhere else. Mayfield talks a big game but from watching his film, I can say he’s backed it up pretty well. Despite his villain persona, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner rarely lets his intensity get the best of him—the Kansas game was obviously an outlier—and generally uses his insane competitiveness for good.

 

I forget which game it was, but whoever was doing the color commentary called Mayfield the most accurate passer in the country. Hyperbolic as it sounds, it’s hard to argue with that assessment. When Mayfield gets in a rhythm, it’s game over. Last season he began a game against UTEP by completing 16 straight passes. SIXTEEN! It’s true that Mayfield threw a steady diet of screens and short passes but I believe his long-range accuracy is criminally underrated. I was witness to plenty of exasperated screams from Gus Johnson on long completions to Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (one of the great nicknames in college football).

 

Oklahoma’s offense operated at warp speed last season and Mayfield was a master at getting the ball out quickly. Based on what I saw from Mayfield, I don’t think he’ll have any trouble running the no-huddle when he becomes an NFL starter. All of the quarterbacks I watched used a fair amount of play-action but Mayfield made it look easier than the word search on the kid’s menu at Friendly’s. Besides his laser accuracy and well-documented swag, I thought Mayfield ran the ball extremely well last season. Somehow, he only logged a 4.84 at the Combine, but he could have fooled me. Mayfield was all over the place, running for first downs, spinning around defenders both in and out of the pocket and extending plays with Manziel-like elusiveness. He can also deliver a mean stiff arm.

 

In terms of technique, Mayfield’s touch was terrific and I liked the way he used play-fakes to fool defenders and give his receivers more space to get open. There’s a tendency to rush and make mistakes when the blitz is coming, but Mayfield’s composure and patience were as good as any quarterback I watched during my film binge. 

 

Weaknesses: The biggest knock on Mayfield, aside from his size and abrasive on-field demeanor, has always been his arm strength. I would contend that criticism is overblown, but when Mayfield did miss, it was usually on deep passes. I was impressed by both his confidence and decision-making, though I did notice a few occasions where he got burned trying to be the hero instead of making the safe throw. Usually in those instances, Mayfield took bad sacks by holding on to the ball too long. Mayfield didn’t throw many interceptions (only six) but on the few occasions when he did, it was usually because he stared down his receiver. Mayfield likes to go for the home run when sometimes he’d be better off settling for a single.

 

My biggest concern with Mayfield is entirely hypothetical. He had FOREVER to throw behind Oklahoma’s dominant O line and was blessed with a treasure trove of talent on offense from his receivers all the way down to his running backs and tight ends. That’s not a knock on Mayfield—it’s not his fault Oklahoma was awesome last year. I’m just wondering what happens when he goes to a rebuilding team like the Browns or Jets. Will Mayfield still be as accurate or will he struggle outside of Lincoln Reilly’s offense? Mayfield will have to convince teams he’s not just a “system” quarterback.

 

Josh Rosen, UCLA

 

Strengths: My first taste of Josh Rosen was a few years ago when he made headlines for having a hot tub in his dorm room (I wish we had that at Syracuse when it was 10 degrees outside). He addressed that as well as many other topics in his recent interview with ESPN. You know the draft process has gotten out of control when a prospect is being criticized for coming from an upper-class family. Rich or not, I think Rosen is the safest quarterback in this year’s draft and certainly the most NFL-ready.

 

Josh Allen’s arm may be stronger but Rosen was the most successful deep passer of any of the quarterbacks I watched. And that’s kind of a miracle when you consider how drop-prone deep threat Jordan Lasley is (Thor’s Will Fuller comp is spot-on). ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit said Rosen throws the “prettiest ball in college football.” He’s not wrong. The sheer versatility of Rosen as a passer is overwhelming. As a runner, Rosen is probably the least gifted out of the big four, but he still had moments where he looked like Aaron Rodgers, improv-ing both in and outside the pocket (he’s a former tennis prodigy, which probably helps in the agility department). Rosen does a really nice job of letting plays develop and unlike Darnold and Allen, he doesn’t force anything. He’s a cerebral player who often looks to his second or third read and knows when to get rid of it. Even when he doesn’t complete the pass, Rosen will usually miss low instead of high, which reduces the risk of an interception. He’s automatic inside the red zone and does a spectacular job on back-shoulder throws, putting the ball where only his receiver can catch it. His touch is always just right—you’ll never see Rosen put too much mustard on a screen pass or lob up a prayer in hopes of getting bailed out by a pass interference call.

 

Rosen doesn’t mess up often, but when he does, he shows impressive resiliency. Take the USC game, for instance. Rosen made two bad plays in a row, taking a long sack and drawing a flag for delay of game. That drive stalled but Rosen led UCLA 79 yards downfield for a touchdown on the following possession. Rosen also has great timing—I love how he hits his receivers in stride to maximize yards after catch. Man, this guy is good.

 

Weaknesses: I’m racking my brain to think of anything. Play-action, misdirection, moving the defense with his eyes—Rosen does it all well. Even his perceived lack of athleticism (43rd percentile at the Combine) didn’t show up on film. I guess if I had to nitpick, I’d say there were a few instances where Rosen was reluctant to run when he had a wide-open lane, but maybe that’s just an example of a self-aware quarterback knowing his own limitations. In fact, I think Rosen’s completion percentage—he posted a perfectly acceptable 62.9 percent—should have been much higher. Watching the tape, UCLA’s drop problem really was an epidemic.

 

The biggest concern for Rosen will be his durability. He missed five games with a shoulder injury during his sophomore year and sat out two more as a junior due to concussions. UCLA finished just 6-7 with Rosen at the helm last year, but we knew it would be an adjustment for the Bruins playing under new OC Jedd Fisch, who has since joined Sean McVay’s staff as an assistant coach for the Rams. No matter what you think about Rosen’s politics or his hot tub situation, you have to admit he’s a game-changer. Just ask Texas A&M.

 

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Mayfield had a "Treasure Trove of talent" to throw to? That's stretching it. Mark Andrews is a beast for sure, but outside of his TE who were the guys that we could say going into the season were "great players"? Hollywood Brown made his name known this season given that this was his first season playing. CeDe Lamb made some noise this season given his age because he was a true freshman at WR. Jeff Badet had some nice moments...but he had 400 yards and 3 TD's on the season. 

Where are all of these great players surrounding Mayfield? Last year we heard that type of rhetoric given Dede Westbrook, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine....but they all left for the league last year. Mayfield's entire receiving core were new guys that never played collegiate ball before and 1 transfer from Kentucky (Badet). I guess we can add the Fullback Dimitri Flowers, the fullback that was really a target from out of the backfield given that he rushed for 22 yards but had about 400 receiving yards and a hand full of TD's. 

 

This is what actually happened at OU. If you were open, Mayfield got you the ball. The stats show it. Between Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, those two players accounted for 2,000 of Mayfield's 4,600 yards passing and 15 of Mayfield's 43 TD's. Keeping in mind those were Bakers top two targets....then where did the other 2,600 yards and 28 TD's go? He distributed it throughout that entire OU offense. 

 

This is what makes this kid so dangerous. he's not playing with a treasure trove of talent, Baker Mayfield is making all of the players around him BETTER! There's a difference. 

 

 

Outside of that, great read! 

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These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

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10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

And let's get Charlie Brown to kick. Yeesh. Such a sap you are.

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14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

Like that kid from Chico, CA who looks like sh*t in Green Bay.

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16 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

This guy here.....lol. first Saquon Barkley is your pick and now this.

 

 

You are one streaky poster there, bit.

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19 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

 

20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These prospect reports only talk about the prospect, which is fine. 

But the draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's about matching the team to the player

For example USC QB Sam Darnold might be a Pro Bowl player in balmy Arizona. But in New York he could make the buttfumble part II. 

The Jets are an underdog franchise they need an underdog type of QB that means Allen or Mayfield. This franchise isn't equipped for a SoCal 5 star Elite 11 type of guy. Those players show up to the swamps of jersey and say "Oh sh*t, where did the sun go?" and then they get sad cause people don't spend all day telling them how great they are. 

I don't want some soft So Cal broheim at QB. I want some discard that everyone counted out from day 1. Cause that's what this franchise is. We are underdogs and always will be. 

We drafted this guy two years ago and he hasn't seen the field since.

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Just now, section314 said:

 

We drafted this guy two years ago and he hasn't seen the field since.

in 2013 Christian Hackenberg was the #1 Pro style QB in the country, a 5 star prep 

He's not a discard. Josh Allen is a discard. Mayfield is a discard. 

guys like Hack, Rosen and Darnold had the red carpet rolled out for them 

 

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Just now, Patriot Killa said:

I also had Baker in my avatar 4 months before the Rosen avatar. Am I not allowed to like both?

Yet you like Barkley. I’m lost here.

sure you can and I can point it out. 

I like the best player in the draft and the best RB for a generation it doesn't seem that a spicy of a take. 

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2 minutes ago, HessStation said:

OMG

If Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold were from Cal Berkley instead of USC and UCLA respectively, I'd like them more.   Maybe that's irrational or whatever but the QB of those SoCal programs lives like King Solomon. The QB1 at Cal still has to go to class. 

Don't make me post that hot tub chicken wing pic again

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold were from Cal Berkley instead of USC and UCLA respectively, I'd like them more.   Maybe that's irrational or whatever but the QB of those SoCal programs lives like King Solomon. The QB1 at Cal still has to go to class. 

Don't make me post that hot tub chicken wing pic again

I'm pretty sure a HOF QB came from UCLA and won 3 rings...... Troy Aikman was his name?

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold were from Cal Berkley instead of USC and UCLA respectively, I'd like them more.   Maybe that's irrational or whatever but the QB of those SoCal programs lives like King Solomon. The QB1 at Cal still has to go to class. 

Don't make me post that hot tub chicken wing pic again

Your logic is so whack it's not worth telling everyone the guy you want, Allen, is from Fresno, CA. 

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Just now, Grandy said:

I'm pretty sure a HOF QB came from UCLA and won 3 rings...... Troy Aikman was his name?

Yes another young man with a history of concussion

Aikman won in Texas, in a covered stadium. 

Im not saying all USC and UCLA QBs are terrible. But I'm wary of those guys in this conference, with these elements

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1 minute ago, Grandy said:

I'm pretty sure a HOF QB came from UCLA and won 3 rings...... Troy Aikman was his name?

Bit always discredits himself with this stuff. He's spends all his time, or used to, breaking down college football players then makes his decisions deducing them down to what college or HS they played at based on their position. He's a fustrating guy bc his opinions would hold some merit otherwise. 

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Just now, HessStation said:

Your logic is so whack it's not worth telling everyone the guy you want, Allen, is from Fresno, CA. 

You never been to california huh

Fresno is nowhere and Firebaugh California is 40 miles from nowhere 

it's nothing like Capistrano Beach or Manhattan Beach the hometowns of Darnold and Rosen

two dudes who were literally born on the beach. 

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Just now, HessStation said:

Bit always discredits himself with this stuff. He's spends all his time, or used to, breaking down college football players then makes his decisions deducing them down to what college or HS they played at based on their position. He's a fustrating guy bc his opinions would hold some merit otherwise. 

  If my opinions are erratic it's because the Jets broke my brain

you guys want to start a class action with me? 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Yes another young man with a history of concussion

Aikman won in Texas, in a covered stadium. 

Im not saying all USC and UCLA QBs are terrible. But I'm wary of those guys in this conference, with these elements

Just admit you enjoy playing contrarian using fuzzy logic. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count because Chino is NorCal and Cal Berkley just isn't quite as sunny and UCLA or USC. And San Jose isn't as nice as LA and Brady did go to Michigan. And same for Allen who's a Fresno Kid. 3 years in Montana totally toughened him up. Aikman doesn't count bc 2 games in a dome vs. in the Meadowlands is what made his career.  Andrew Luck played HS in sunny Tx and went to sunny CA for college so he would have been no bueno. Eli Manning grew up in sunny New Orleans with a silver spoon, and Ole Miss is like thug life compared to USC or UCLA.  Hmmm how else can we narrow this down to make up an argument. 

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

You never been to california huh

Fresno is nowhere and Firebaugh California is 40 miles from nowhere 

it's nothing like Capistrano Beach or Manhattan Beach the hometowns of Darnold and Rosen

two dudes who were literally born on the beach. 

I live in LA and Manhattan Beach might as well be nowhere. And Capistrano Beach is in Orange County. This is like if you were comparing apples to Chuck Palahniuk books.

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