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Cimini: Jets FO Expanding Use of Analytics

dbatesman

By dbatesman
in NY Jets Forum

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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This is welcome news mainly because analytics are good, but also because the velcro shoe crew now has to choose between disavowing Maccagnan as a gay nerd and frantically scrubbing their posting history so they can pretend they loved analytics all along.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/75913/jets-increased-use-of-analytics-could-help-determine-qb-of-future

Jets' increased use of analytics could help determine QB of future

In the not-so-old days, talent evaluators relied on their eyes and stopwatches to grade college prospects. They still do, but now they have a supplementary source of information at their disposal -- analytics.

On Monday, general manager Mike Maccagnan revealed that analytics have played a significant role in the New York Jets' draft preparation. Previously, the organization downplayed its usage of analytics in the scouting process. Now the Jets are looking to expand that department.

"Analytics, I think, is something that every team has used. We’re no different," Maccagnan said. "We’ve done quite a bit. We’ve used it both on the pro and the college side.

"As this expands a little bit, there may be other ways, whether it’s coaching or scouting, to make ourselves more efficient or more effective at what we do," he continued. "We’re like every other team out there. We have an analytics staff and department, and I would think, as things move forward, we’d probably expand and grow that."

'Tis the season for reading between the lines, trying to decipher a team's draft intentions. If you look at the Jets' first-round decision through the prism of analytics, the favorite is Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield. His numbers are off the charts.

Football Outsiders recently published its QBASE ranking (QB-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience). It rates Mayfield as not only the top prospect in this draft, but as the fourth-best in the past 10 years. Only Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb are ranked ahead of Mayfield. Immediately behind him are Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning. Not bad company.

What is QBASE? According to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, "It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. Fifty thousand simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities."

One of the big questions about Mayfield is whether he can make the adjustment from a spread offense, which generates a lot of easy throws, to a pro-style system. According to Pro Football Focus, Mayfield was eighth in the country in the number of "NFL throw" attempts -- and he produced the best grade on those attempts. The statistic is based on NFL-type routes and distances.

On the flip side, Mayfield didn't score particularly well on "tight window" throws. He attempted 68 and completed only 41 percent, compared t0 82 percent on 261 "clear window" throws, per PFF.

Obviously, some of this is subjective, but it gives teams a ton of information to consider -- maybe too much information. Welcome to the new sports landscape.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Could just mean they bought a PFF subscription this year 

Yeah, this— 

10 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 

"Analytics, I think, is something that every team has used. We’re no different," Maccagnan said. "We’ve done quite a bit. We’ve used it both on the pro and the college side.

—coming from the guy who drafted Lorenzo Mauldin and Christian Hackenberg, and traded for Brandon Marshall, is an absolute ******* lollercoaster. Any port in a storm though. 

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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6 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Yeah, this— 

—coming from the guy who drafted Lorenzo Mauldin and Christian Hackenberg, and traded for Brandon Marshall, is an absolute ******* lollercoaster. Any port in a storm though. 

There’s gotta be a story behind this. Who initiated this? 

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Gangrene

Gangrene

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It was Sam Monson of PFF  who wrote that detailed draft analytics review of Hackenberg two years ago, pronouncing him as "undraftable"; in the light of this, it is particularly ironic that the Jets champion their expanded use of analytics coming into this year's draft.

Presumably two years ago their use of analytics was close to zero, otherwise Hackenberg was unexplainable as a second round draft choice.

Two years on, the same Sam Monson of PFF now writes after a deep dive into the draft analytics, that  Baker Mayfield's college numbers indicate that he should be the number 1 pick in this year's draft.

If the Jets end up with the Mayfield it will be ironic that they went from drafting PFF 'undraftable' rating in the second round two years ago to drafting PFF 'number one' rated in the first round in the space of two years.  

I will wonder always who had the final say on that second round pick two years ago, Was it Maccagnan, Woody or was it the homeless guy that talks to Jimmy Haslam that converted the FO to Christian Hackenberg ?

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Larz

Larz

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10 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

It was Sam Monson of PFF  who wrote that detailed draft analytics review of Hackenberg two years ago, pronouncing him as "undraftable"; in the light of this, it is particularly ironic that the Jets champion their expanded use of analytics coming into this year's draft.

Presumably two years ago their use of analytics was close to zero, otherwise Hackenberg was unexplainable as a second round draft choice.

Two years on, the same Sam Monson of PFF now writes after a deep dive into the draft analytics, that  Baker Mayfield's college numbers indicate that he should be the number 1 pick in this year's draft.

If the Jets end up with the Mayfield it will be ironic that they went from drafting PFF 'undraftable' rating in the second round two years ago to drafting PFF 'number one' rated in the first round in the space of two years.  

I will wonder always who had the final say on that second round pick two years ago, Was it Maccagnan, Woody or was it the homeless guy that talks to Jimmy Haslam that converted the FO to Christian Hackenberg ?

Cheer up its QB eve! 

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GreenFish

GreenFish

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Analytics are the way of the future like Money Ball was in Baseball. Over the next decade teams are going to have numbers guys helping make play call decisions like when to go for it on 4th down. Analyzing players is another benefit as well as positional value and draft slot value. 

With that said, this is a smokescreen. Welcome Josh Allen.

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JetFaninMI

JetFaninMI

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27 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

It was Sam Monson of PFF  who wrote that detailed draft analytics review of Hackenberg two years ago, pronouncing him as "undraftable"; in the light of this, it is particularly ironic that the Jets champion their expanded use of analytics coming into this year's draft.

Presumably two years ago their use of analytics was close to zero, otherwise Hackenberg was unexplainable as a second round draft choice.

Two years on, the same Sam Monson of PFF now writes after a deep dive into the draft analytics, that  Baker Mayfield's college numbers indicate that he should be the number 1 pick in this year's draft.

If the Jets end up with the Mayfield it will be ironic that they went from drafting PFF 'undraftable' rating in the second round two years ago to drafting PFF 'number one' rated in the first round in the space of two years.  

I will wonder always who had the final say on that second round pick two years ago, Was it Maccagnan, Woody or was it the homeless guy that talks to Jimmy Haslam that converted the FO to Christian Hackenberg ?

I remember that article. Hell I actually used it in post's numerous times on Hack. As for the analytics angle what can I say? I'm old school but it seems to be the wave of the future and its about time the Jets got with it. As for understanding it well... I still have a landline and a corded phone in my kitchen. I bet I have a rotary phone around here someplace. Not much use for it now...except as a paper weight.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

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21 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

He was worth the trade for that one play vs the browns alone where he got a fitz int back by ripping it out of their dbs hands...if we cant enjoy watching our team what good is it being fans b Marshall helped make that season watchable.

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

He also gave a couple games away. But sure.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

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8 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

Admittably he was not very good his second season with us but do you honestly think we would have gotten more value after a sixth round pick? Was the team as a whole any good that season?

Sent from my [device_name] using http://JetNation.com mobile app
 

We missed the playoffs by 1 game. His mistakes cost us more than 1 game.

He was exciting. That doesn’t mean he was necessarily good. I enjoyed watching him play. Most of the time.

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