Mehta: "Giants Made a Massive Mistake Letting Darnold Land With The Jets

[flgreen]

Giants made a massive mistake letting Sam Darnold land with the Jets

By MANISH MEHTA

| NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |

APR 28, 2018 | 2:04 AM

  

 

 

The Jets might have solved their most annoying problem with help from the one team that wants them to fail miserably.

The Giants' massive mistake of gift-wrapping Sam Darnold to Gang Green will be debated for the next decade. Did Dave Gettleman pass on the next great quarterback in favor of a running back?

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Although Saquon Barkley promises to electrify in the short term, the Giants brain trust's significant miscalculation centers on their faith in a fading old quarterback. Gettleman can marginalize critiques from the analytics community about positional value until the cows come home, but here's the cold, harsh truth: Eli Manning has been leaking oil for two years.

At best, the 37-year-old two-time Super Bowl MVP looks like a slightly below average player. At worst, he looks like one of those guys rolling down a hill chasing a block of cheese. Strip away all the sentimentality surrounding one of the classiest and clutch players in Giants history and here's what's left: A guy with a two-year shelf life… maybe.

Gettleman had an incredible opportunity to draft Manning's successor without any pressure to start the rookie right away. It would have been a gradual transition without immediate pressure. Manning would have passed the baton to Darnold either later this season or next. It made sense on every level.

Gettleman's belief that "if you have to try to make yourself fall in love with a player, it is wrong" because "you will never be happy with the pick" is a reasonable stance, prompting the obvious question: Why the hell weren't the Giants in love with Darnold, whose skillset, makeup and potential made him the top signal caller for most teams?

The Giants hope never to duplicate their franchise-worst 13-loss season. It's likely that they won't be picking No. 2 in the draft again anytime soon. So why pass on a guy with traits to be a star at the most important position in this sport.

"There's a ton of room for growth," Darnold said Friday at his introductory press conference on One Jets Drive. "That's the thing I'm really excited about. Just being 20 years old, I know that there's a lot of room for growth. But I'm also very confident in my ability to go out there and play."

Sam Darnold could have been a difference maker for the Giants. (Julie Jacobson/AP)

 

Gettleman's mistake was not believing in Barkley, who has the makings of being a difference maker. His mistake was believing in Manning, who has the NFL's worst completion percentage in the last five years to go along with declining passer ratings in three consecutive years. More than that, anyone with the gift of sight is fully aware that Manning is limping to the finish line of his accomplished career.

It's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately industry with no room for sentimentality. Pairing Darnold with Manning would have been the right call.

For all of Barkley's prodigious gifts, consider the shelf life for running backs taken in the Top 10 compared to quarterbacks taken in the Top 10. Six running backs have been true difference makers in the prior 20 drafts (dating back to 1998) excluding those in the prior three drafts, who don't have a large enough sample size. Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams and Fred Taylor were definitely Top 10 worthy, but only one (Lewis) even appeared in a Super Bowl.

Ten QBs selected in the Top 10 during that same 20-year span (excluding Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, who have small sample sizes) were true difference makers: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, Donovan McNabb and Peyton Manning.

If you can squeeze six top-end seasons out of a running back, count your blessings. Most good ball carriers tack on about three largely worthless seasons before calling it quits at age 30-32. The Curse of 30 is real. Most of them fall apart in their late 20s. To wit, the over/under on Jaguars star running back Leonard Fournette's surgeries by 2020: Three.

It's a brutal position that teams recycle every few years. Factor in that this draft is particularly deep at running back and it makes the Giants' decision that much more confounding.

Elite quarterbacks, meanwhile, can thrive in their early-to-mid 30s. The Jets will groom Darnold, who won't even turn 21 until June, to get them to a place they haven't been in a half century.

Saquon Barkley.

 

"I think winning a Super bowl is everyone's goal entering a season, whether I'm a backup or whether I'm a starting quarterback," Darnold said. "Everyone on the team wants to win a Super Bowl. That's the goal for everyone. Anything short of that is a failure. .... Whatever my role is, I'm going to star in that role to work us towards that Super Bowl."

Barkley and Darnold will be linked forever. The Giants will get the first laugh when their first-round pick is tearing it up this season.

But did Big Blue lose sight of the bigger picture? Barkley wasn't the missing piece to take the Giants to the promised land in the next couple years with Manning. Running backs rarely are. Just ask every Minnesotan with a Peterson jersey.

So, the Giants are left with an awesome talent with no clear succession plan at the position that matters most.

Good luck with that.

"Saquon's an amazing player," Darnold said. "He's probably the most electric player that I've ever played against. It's really cool to see him going to the Giants."

The Jets couldn't have said it any better.

[MDL_JET]

Ugh. Relax. Let them play a game first. 

[SMC]

6 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Ugh. Relax. Let them play a game first. 

Actually, that isn't the issue.  This is not about taking 1 QB over another.  This is about taking a RB over a QB based on an irrational belief in a fading 37 yr old QB.

Barkley is good, but is he good enough to carry a bad QB?  And when he is in his prime, Webb will be just starting out and Barkley will have to carry him as well, but with an even shorter shelflife.

[Jet Nut]

12 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Ugh. Relax. Let them play a game first. 

It's the value of the aren't of a QB vs a RB, not game stats out of the shoot though

[flgreen]

OMG, I actually agree with Mehta.

I've been hoping for Mayfield since the NCAA season ended.  Mostly because, like the Jets, I didn't think Darnold had a chance to be there at 6/3.  I just don't understand how a Jets' fan could be unhappy with Darnold.

Maybe Joe's curse was only for 50 years. 

[Jetsplayer21]

I agree but obviously a little weasel reporter like Mehta is thinking about more himself not the giants. You just can’t write about a Star RB with zero flaws. He would have loved to stir the pot and write suspense stories About the internal divisions of wether to pull Eli for darnold, ect. We all know Mehta loves turmoil. 

[Greenseed4]

Mehta doesn’t believe in Eli. 

So glad, the Giants get to be the butt of NY for a while. 

[MDL_JET]

5 minutes ago, SMC said:

Actually, that isn't the issue.  This is not about taking 1 QB over another.  This is about taking a RB over a QB based on an irrational belief in a fading 37 yr old QB.

Barkley is good, but is he good enough to carry a bad QB?  And when he is in his prime, Webb will be just starting out and Barkley will have to carry him as well, but with an even shorter shelflife.

Eh. Idk. I get it but they feel Eli can still play and take them deep if they support him well enough. This isn't drafting AP onto a team with no QB and thinking he can carry them. It's not Fournette carrying Bortles. 

They have a small window with Eli and they're going for it. I respect it. Also just irks me with the line of "did he pass on the next great QB" when none of these QBs are a sure thing.  

[Gen X Jet]

Can Mehta jump ship to the Giants beat?  Better yet, can the NYDN just shut down already?  Hopefully Tribune does just that.

[Scott Dierking]

There are many ways to build a team. It does not just fit one ideal, even though this goes against our own genius of knowing that we could each build a dynasty, if only given a chance.

I will not try and understand the Giants thinking, rather just watch how it plays out.

April musings do not make February champions. Oh, don't we know this.

 

[billo83]

15 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Eh. Idk. I get it but they feel Eli can still play and take them deep if they support him well enough. This isn't drafting AP onto a team with no QB and thinking he can carry them. It's not Fournette carrying Bortles. 

They have a small window with Eli and they're going for it. I respect it. Also just irks me with the line of "did he pass on the next great QB" when none of these QBs are a sure thing.  

Barkley isn't a "sure thing" either.

[JetFaninMI]

Who cares? Its the guys job to sell papers. He makes a living stirring sh*t up. Of course he will write this. Imagine if Darnold has a bad start or two and Rosen lights it up in the same period? I can see the headline now "DID JETS CHOOSE THE WRONG QB?" or "DID JETS MISS ON ROSEN FOR DARNOLD?". Typical sh*t stirring Mehta.

 

[CTM]

These QBs all had warts, maybe they just didn't like any of them? 

[section314]

Remember this boys......consider the source.

[nyjunc]

31 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Eh. Idk. I get it but they feel Eli can still play and take them deep if they support him well enough. This isn't drafting AP onto a team with no QB and thinking he can carry them. It's not Fournette carrying Bortles. 

They have a small window with Eli and they're going for it. I respect it. Also just irks me with the line of "did he pass on the next great QB" when none of these QBs are a sure thing.  

Fournette averaged less than 4 ypc, Bortles thorough 4 seasons has been significantly better than Eli was through 4 seasons.  

Eli hasn't been good in a long time. This move by the Giants made no sense which is why I love it.  They have missed the playoffs 7 of 9 seasons in a weak division with mostly a lot of talent around the QB. The only constant has been the QB which is why they have struggled so much. 

[thebuzzardman]

So, if the Giants revamp their line (they addressed it, at least in part), the Giants roll with a guy who is (always was? - that debate again) a JAG QB, with some revamped offensive tools, for a few seasons and they have 2-3 seasons to solve QB.

I mean, passing on really good QB's (Darnold/Rosen) is problematic when your QB is 37 and seems to be fading, but enough QB's have remained solid enough until 40; it's not the end of the world. 

 

[nyjunc]

3 minutes ago, thebuzzardman said:

So, if the Giants revamp their line (they addressed it, at least in part), the Giants roll with a guy who is (always was? - that debate again) a JAG QB, with some revamped offensive tools, for a few seasons and they have 2-3 seasons to solve QB.

I mean, passing on really good QB's (Darnold/Rosen) is problematic when your QB is 37 and seems to be fading, but enough QB's have remained solid enough until 40; it's not the end of the world. 

 

Let's say they get a QB in 3 years. That's 3 years off of Barkley's career when RBs don't last long, another developmental year for a young QB so really it's 4 years off Barkley's career.  How does this help long term?  They aren't winning anything now and the only way any team wins with Eli is if that are loaded around him anyway so that's at least another year it 2 if the GM does a great job and he hasn't done a great job as a GM anywhere before

[Rangers9]

I can understand the Giants logic. With Barkley they now have two upper echelon impact players on offense who will give defenses nightmares. Plus the surrounding talent is good.  And they are rebuilding their O-line, drafted Hernandez and signed the best available FA offensive lineman. If Eli is even just average they could this season turn things around after last year. And if they suck this year they can always draft a Qb in 2019. 

[Xtina]

I still can’t believe this has really happened. Word is Gettleman said he wouldn’t even listen to offers to trade. That’s crazy. He could have got more picks and still got Barkley.  Whoever traded up to 2 would have taken Darnold. The Giants gift wrapped him for us. Thanks guys! 

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

52 minutes ago, SMC said:

Actually, that isn't the issue.  This is not about taking 1 QB over another.  This is about taking a RB over a QB based on an irrational belief in a fading 37 yr old QB.

Barkley is good, but is he good enough to carry a bad QB?  And when he is in his prime, Webb will be just starting out and Barkley will have to carry him as well, but with an even shorter shelflife.

Remember when Barry Sanders lead the Lions to all those Super Bowls? Oh, wait, that was the point you were making. Has there ever been a situation where a team won the Super Bowl because of the RB?

[nyjunc]

6 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Remember when Barry Sanders lead the Lions to all those Super Bowls? Oh, wait, that was the point you were making. Has there ever been a situation where a team won the Super Bowl because of the RB?

Denver 1997-98. Obviously it wasn't just TD but he was the guy that put them over the top.

[nyjunc]

Let's say Eli plays 3 more years, Barkley will not be as good as tiki barber was Eli's first 3 seasons and he didn't win a playoff game those first 3 years and got shut out at home in one of them.  Eli was better his first 3 seasons than he has been in recent years

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

Just now, nyjunc said:

Denver 1997-98. Obviously it wasn't just TD but he was the guy that put them over the top.

They had a hall of fame QB handing it to a hall of fame RB behind a disgustingly good offensive line. The question is if Barkley is good enough to lead a team who has an aging Manning to a Super Bowl. 

[nyjunc]

2 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

They had a hall of fame QB handing it to a hall of fame RB behind a disgustingly good offensive line. The question is if Barkley is good enough to lead a team who has an aging Manning to a Super Bowl. 

No Barkley isn't leading NYG to a SB, Eli needs everything perfect around him to make a run. They don't have enough talent to overcome Eli.

As far as Denver, TD was the difference maker.  He was the biggest reason those teams won.

[RVAJet815]

And you just know it's killing him. Best part, Sam isn't giving that hack a juicy quote for the next decade!

[thebuzzardman]

16 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Let's say they get a QB in 3 years. That's 3 years off of Barkley's career when RBs don't last long, another developmental year for a young QB so really it's 4 years off Barkley's career.  How does this help long term?  They aren't winning anything now and the only way any team wins with Eli is if that are loaded around him anyway so that's at least another year it 2 if the GM does a great job and he hasn't done a great job as a GM anywhere before

I could see that. I could even agree with it. Not like I don't either. I guess the Giants figure they can win enough in the meantime. This is sort of the "if not winning, completely go in the tank" argument - correct? Or at least go all in for the future now instead of waiting? Again, it's valid. I guess the Giants figure they can retain some relevance and maybe get into the playoffs as a wild card this year or next. Again, I get the questioning it, based on RB's shelf life of 4 or 5 years, quite often. 

Maybe there is some analysis they've done on upcoming QB's in the next few drafts/FA. Maybe they just want an RB to sell some tickets when they rebuild in 2 years. I'm surprised they didn't grab Sam or Rosen and glad they didn't. 

 

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

Just now, nyjunc said:

No Barkley isn't leading NYG to a SB, Eli needs everything perfect around him to make a run. They don't have enough talent to overcome Eli.

As far as Denver, TD was the difference maker.  He was the biggest reason those teams won.

I respect your opinion, but we will have to agree to disagree. TD was an important part of their Super Bowl victory, but he didn't carry the team. The team was loaded with talent, not to mention hall of famers. Let's put it this way, do the Jets win a Super Bowl with TD? 

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, SMC said:

Actually, that isn't the issue.  This is not about taking 1 QB over another.  This is about taking a RB over a QB based on an irrational belief in a fading 37 yr old QB.

Barkley is good, but is he good enough to carry a bad QB?  And when he is in his prime, Webb will be just starting out and Barkley will have to carry him as well, but with an even shorter shelflife.

ELIte isn't done yet.  the thing is he is a solid qb.  i don't get the impression that he can win games anymore (not that he ever had the fire like his brother).  in this sense, picking barkley and retaining ELIte gives them maybe a 3 year window for success.  i'm also not quite sure webb is the answer either. so from this standpoint, picking barkley was a good move.  but i do agree that they really needed to be more forward looking and pick a qb.

[Bugg]

Blind squirrel finds nut.

Gettleman knocking analytics faking guys on a keyboard is the kind of thing that can come back and bite you. Because no matter what the sport today you need eyeball  and shoe leather scouting and analytics.  

But Mehta as always goes too far. Entirely plausible Barkley is a great back for 3-5 seasons before Darnold get his sea legs, and the Jints find a servicable replacement long term. Expect it will play out that Barkley is great in the short term but Darnold is way better long term. But we don't know. Jints' bigger problem is they penciled Flowers in at RT and he's not coming to work, so...

[nyjunc]

9 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

I respect your opinion, but we will have to agree to disagree. TD was an important part of their Super Bowl victory, but he didn't carry the team. The team was loaded with talent, not to mention hall of famers. Let's put it this way, do the Jets win a Super Bowl with TD? 

In 1998?  Yes. 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Pulitzer Prize 2018 - his best work ever, I take back 1 or 2 of the bad things I ever said about him, Manish questioning the Giants in New York, bwahahaha - that should sell some papers and maybe get him run out of town LOL

"So, the Giants are left with an awesome talent with no clear succession plan at the position that matters most.   Good luck with that."  BOOM!

[Savage69]

24 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Denver 1997-98. Obviously it wasn't just TD but he was the guy that put them over the top.

In 1998 Elway passed for 22 td's and TG ran for 21 and caught 2 more for a total of 23.. In those 2 Bowl winning years TD rushed for 3,748 yds that was a huge help for Elway.. IMO no TD no 2 bowl wins..

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

22 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

In 1998?  Yes. 

The argument isn't about a RB being part of a winning team. A running back cannot, and has never carried a team, including TD. He was an important part, but not the reason why the Broncos won. Take away Elway, and the Broncos aren't in the Super Bowl. Barry Sanders was better than TD and he never even sniffed the Super Bowl. If you put TD on the Lions, he isn't a hall of famer.

[TuscanyTile2]

I think the Giants thought very short-term here.  I thought Darnold would've been absolutely perfect for them because he could've sat behind Eli for 2-3 years and they would've had a smooth transition to their next QB (who would've had several years of seasoning while he matured from a 20 year old to a 22 or 23 year old).  But possibly the Giants really do like Davis Webb.

[Larz]

Replacing sacred cows is not easy 

Drafting Elis replacement would be a tough first draft pick for a guy who got the job because Eli was disrespected