Excellent Bucky Brooks Article

[KRL]

Excellent article by Brooks about the value of safeties and the need for evaluators
to think out of the box when scouting players:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000934478/article/nfl-oddly-devaluing-safeties-baker-mayfield-should-sit-in-year-1

 

For as long as I've been around football, I've heard coaches stress the importance of being strong down the middle. The sentiment is routinely hammered home: Championship defenses are built from the inside out, with middle linebackers and safeties acting as the traffic cops of the unit.

During my time as a player and scout, I was fortunate enough to be around some championship-caliber teams with elite defenders positioned at safety. From Henry Jones in Buffalo to LeRoy Butler in Green Bay, from the late Eric Turner in Oakland to Mike Minter in Carolina, I've seen how a dominant presence in the middle of the field can impact a defense and change how offenses are able to attack various areas of the field. I've watched those great players eliminate dangerous playmakers between the hashes and force quarterbacks come off their primary options in the passing game.

"In an ideal world, you would like one of your safeties to possess the athleticism and cover skills of a cornerback, but have the IQ of a quarterback and the physicality of a linebacker," a veteran NFL defensive backs coach told me. "You would like to be able to play your base defense against 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and lock him up over the slot guy or the tight end, based on matchups."

In today's game, I'm seeing more and more safeties with those capabilities ... but they aren't valued at a rate that would appear appropriate based on their skills. Teams just aren't paying safeties big money, despite impressive statistics and invaluable versatility. Guys like Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Reid and Tre Boston -- fresh off contract seasons where they put in work -- remain unsigned.

Why?

Well, Reid, who knelt during the national anthem as a protest against racial injustice, has filed a non-injury grievance against the NFL, so his case is more unique. But that doesn't explain why the safety market was so tepid overall this offseason. So, what gives?

"It's hard to determine the value of safeties, based on the different ways that teams use them," a former NFL defensive coordinator told me. "You can't simply look at the stat sheet and figure out how much of an impact a player makes, due to the different roles that they're playing in today's game. Some guys are center fielders asked to play in the middle of the field, while others are playing down in the box as run defenders. Throw in the other guys who play as hybrid slot defenders and nickel corners, it's hard to put them in the right order when it comes to stacking the board."

Maybe that's why a 26-year-old stud like Tyrann Mathieu gets a deal (one year for $7 million with the Houston Texans) that seems beneath market value for a player with his accolades. It also might be the reason Earl Thomas is having a tougher time getting a lucrative extension from the Seattle Seahawks this time around. Sure, he's been one of the very best safeties in the game for almost this entire decade, as a six-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro, but few evaluators would cite him as a top-20 player in the league.

Even the players themselves appear to have a tough time determining the value of safeties in the league today. NFL Network is in the midst of revealing "The Top 100 Players of 2018," a list that is voted upon by the players themselves, with 51 through 100 already out. Well, a little birdie told me that the next batch, 41-50, will feature the two highest-ranked safeties. So the players don't have a single safety among the top 40 talents in the league today?

All of this seems quite disrespectful to the position, especially considering how teams are currently using safeties as do-everything playmakers. From rushing the quarterback off the edges to locking down slot receivers and tight ends to hammering running backs in the hole as quasi-linebackers, safeties are asked to do more than ever in today's game. Yet, they fail to receive top dollar for their skills. I just don't understand the disconnect here.

"People think that you can find safeties anywhere," the former NFL defensive coordinator said. "Listen to how people always talk about aging cornerbacks moving inside to safety when they lose their athleticism. Sure, some guys can do it, but there's a lot more that goes into the position than some realize. You have to be smart and a communicator to play in the back end. You also need to be a solid tackler in the open field.

"You can't just throw anybody in there and expect them to have success."

As I continue pore over this offseason's safety market -- and some of the big names still on it -- I'm beginning to think executives still don't have a clue about the importance of having a big-time playmaker in the middle of the field, despite what I've always been told by coaches. With the NFL continuing to evolve into a passing league driven by quarterbacks, I think many organizations could regret inexplicably devaluing the position when balls are flying all over the yard in the fall.

2017 DRAFT CLASS: Four valuable scouting lessons learned

One valuable lesson I learned in the scouting business: It's important to re-evaluate previous drafts, identify certain players who clearly outperformed their draft slot and try to figure out why they slipped through the cracks. Was it misevaluation? Had everyone missed some special trait? Did the player's skill set fit perfectly into a specific scheme?

With that in mind, I decided to pop in some tape on players selected to the Professional Football Writers of America's 2017 All-Rookie Team to see what lessons can be gleaned from the performances of some of the more surprising honorees. After reviewing the film and jotting down some notes, here are a few lessons that I learned:

» Quarterbacks with significant experience and winning resumes should go to the front of the line. The 2017 class supposedly lacked an instant-impact franchise quarterback, but in retrospect, Deshaun Watson should've been viewed as a QB1 based on the work that he put in at Clemson. The two-time Heisman Trophy finalist not only won a national title as a starter, but he finished his three-year career with a 32-3 record and number of impressive performances on big stages, including a pair of spectacular national championship games against Alabama. With those games showcasing his remarkable skills as a dual-threat playmaker with exceptional poise and confidence, we should've given Watson more credit for the strong points of his game (confidence, clutch factor, short and intermediate passing ability and improvisational skills), as opposed to harping on his weaknesses (deep-ball accuracy and turnovers) throughout the pre-draft process.

In addition, we should've spent more time discussing what kind of schemes and concepts would elevate his play as a rookie starter. Whether it was the RPO concepts or a variety of play-action passes that highlighted his brilliance as a ball handler, Watson's talents as a QB1 were underestimated. We dismissed his potential as a franchise player due to a lack of imagination on our part. In retrospect, I probably should've focused on the need for Watson to join an innovative play designer to max out his talents in the short term.

» Place a greater emphasis on passing-game skills when evaluating running backs. The so-called devaluation of the position is something of a myth, based on the correlation between productive running backs and the total offensive output of playoff teams. While we've typically measured tailbacks by rushing yards, the evolution of the pro game has made it imperative for RB1s to have multi-faceted games that allow them to be key contributors as pass catchers. Teams are increasingly relying on running backs to create mismatches in the open field; guys with these abilities should be viewed as hot commodities.

Seeing Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt thrive as rookies after entering the league as third-round picks, I've developed a greater appreciation for running backs with spectacular hands, route-running ability and receiving skills. Kamara and Hunt snagged 81 and 53 receptions, respectively, as featured playmakers in the passing game. With fellow rookies Christian McCaffrey (80) and Tarik Cohen (53) also topping the 50-catch mark, the old-school back with a one-dimensional game is not as valuable as the pass-catching back with receiver-like skills on the perimeter. That's why I should've paid closer attention to the number of receptions Kamara and Hunt tallied as collegians. Each guy finished with at least 40 receptions during his final collegiate season. Thus, both were already established playmakers in the passing game when they entered the league. Those skills should've earned them bonus points on their final grades, which would've bumped up their round value on draft day. With the next generation of running backs cultivating their receiving skills on the 7-on-7 circuit as high schoolers, scouts will need to adjust their grading scales to properly value running backs with games that are built for the pass-centric NFL.

» Opt for route runners over explosive athletes at wide receiver. The first round hasn't yielded many impact pass catchers in recent years, but plenty of guys drafted outside of the VIP circle have provided immediate ROI. The 2017 class continued the trend, with three top-10 wide receivers (Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross) combining for a measly 470 receiving yards in Year 1. Interestingly, a pair of Day 2 picks (second-rounder JuJu Smith-Schuster and third-rounder Cooper Kupp) earned rave reviews for their stellar work as complementary playmakers on their respective squads. Smith-Schuster tallied 917 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 58 catches, while Kupp amassed 869 receiving yards and five scores on 62 grabs. Why were they able to have so much success when others have a tough time producing as first-year starters? It's simple. Each guy is a polished route runner with a game that's built on fundamentals and technique, instead of athleticism.

When I look at the most successful pass catchers in the league, they understand how to get open and have enough tools in the toolbox to create space from defenders in tight coverage. Whether using a variety of stems and stutter-step releases to win at the line of scrimmage or incorporating a number of crafty top-of-the-route maneuvers, Smith-Schuster and Kupp are trick-shot artists capable of winning their one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. Those skills showed up on the college tape, but they were overshadowed by the explosive athleticism shown by others. Looking back at both of their evaluations, I should've focused more on their ability to get open as potential WR2s, instead of dwelling on what each player lacked (speed and explosion) as a WR1. With that in mind, I believe evaluators should place a greater emphasis on the core skills needed to succeed as a playmaker, and how the prospect would fit into a particular scheme.

» Motor and technique matter more than athleticism for pass rushers. It's easy to fall in love with the big, explosive pass rushers who check off all of the boxes as athletes, but there's so much more to being an effective sack master than just running a fast 40-yard-dash or bench pressing the world. Sure, the top pass rushers typically display cat-like quickness and ballerina-like body control turning the corner on rush attempts, but there are plenty of QB hunters who win with effort and energy off the edges. They outwork blockers at the point of attack and their non-stop approach results in a number of garbage sacks in the backfield.

Looking at the rookie sack leaders, I'll admit to missing out on the No. 1 guy, Carl Lawson, due to the lack of splash plays on his highlight tape at Auburn. Lawson flashed strong hands as a disruptive rusher from outside or inside. In addition, he could win at the line of scrimmage with a variety of rugged moves that are typically reserved for bigger rushers. Throw in his explosive first-step quickness and superb snap-count anticipation, and Lawson showed enough "blue" qualities to merit a bigger grade from scouts. Given his 8.5 sacks and consistent QB pressure as a rookie, Lawson certainly played like the immediate-impact guy that some envisioned when earned Freshman All-American honors in his first year with the Tigers. With Lawson having racked up nine sacks in his final season at Auburn, I should've given him more credit as a high-motor rusher with a rugged game.

Reviewing the other top sack producers in the rookie class (Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Takkarist McKinley, Derek Barnett and Deatrich Wise), I believe much of their success was also tied to their effort, energy and hand skills. Most were described as "worker bees" during the pre-draft process, and that reputation matched up to how they played in games. Going forward, I'll pay closer attention to effort, energy and combat skills when taking notes on pass rushers.

[Cyberjet]

Spoke with a couple of Steelers fans. They went early in the draft on safeties. There is a trend toward smaller faster defenses with safeties as a premium. This is the direction the Steelers are going. Can it be the Jets  are ahead of the curve?

[CanadienJetsFan]

Macc ahead of the curve?  Can't be.

[BigRy56]

Executive of the year baby!!!!

[thshadow]

I guess a big question is - how did he do on Adams and Maye?  I think Adams is shaping up to be a very good / great safety - but he's not there yet.  Maybe it's my draft-position-bias, but I felt better about Maye than Adams after last year...

So maybe it's prescient that he drafted safeties - but did he get the *right* ones?

 

[T0mShane]

If I’m reading the article right, Brooks is saying that the League doesn’t value safeties even though safeties, in theory, are important, which leads to the conclusion that there are too many people who are passable safeties. But yay Macc?

[Jimmy 2 Times]

NFL defenses are getting smaller and faster to contest the "passing league" certain rule changes have created.

We should really get ahead of the curve and build a power offense that will dominate and smash these puny tiny defenses.

 

[freestater]

2 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

NFL defenses are getting smaller and faster to contest the "passing league" certain rule changes have created.

We should really get ahead of the curve and build a power offense that will dominate and smash these puny tiny defenses.

 

Over the long term, that really is the nature of the game. I really hope that the pass-centric rules the league has been instituting, don't effect that balance. Teams who het ahead of that curve, exploiting the defenses of the day, have such a great advantage. Even turning drives into constant 3pts keeps the pressure up on opposing offenses. 

[varjet]

This is a very well written article, and he makes a number of great points, but Brooks is confused on the safeties.  

Basically it appears that he says that they are really important and valuable, yet none of the GMs want to pay for them in FA.  Therefore, there must be a problem.  

I think the reason that the GMs don’t want to pay for them in FA is that they are often good drafted, even in the lower rounds.  Yes, the Jets drafted safety last year in rounds 1 and 2, and they are pretty good, but look at the good safeties drafted lower.

The key to the draft is draft positions difficult to sign in FA, and use the leverage of the 5th year option and Franchise tag to lock up those types.  Mac has not gotten them memo yet, although my guess is that heimerdinger has written it for him.   It is likely in his inbox. 

[Beerfish]

Safeties are great if you have guys that can stop the run pretty well and cover.  There is the issue with the guy we took at 6 last year and the ilb who was supposed to be able to cover at 21 the year before.  They can't cover the TEs or RBs or slot guys.

I think Marcus Maye has a better chance of being along term impact player than adams.

[varjet]

17 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Safeties are great if you have guys that can stop the run pretty well and cover.  There is the issue with the guy we took at 6 last year and the ilb who was supposed to be able to cover at 21 the year before.  They can't cover the TEs or RBs or slot guys.

I think Marcus Maye has a better chance of being along term impact player than adams.

I don’t think there is a logical role on this team for both Adams and Lee.  

I am taking bets that Lee is not extended

[HessStation]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

If I’m reading the article right, Brooks is saying that the League doesn’t value safeties even though safeties, in theory, are important, which leads to the conclusion that there are too many people who are passable safeties. But yay Macc?

Basically the Jets could have signed Badger and Vacarro and 2017 draft back. 

[nycdan]

9 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Macc ahead of the curve?  Can't be.

If it's a big enough curve, far ahead and far behind look the same.

[dbatesman]

I liked when they said “motor and technique matter more than athleticism for pass rushers”

[UntouchableCrew]

Maybe I'm not reading it right but the theme of the article seems to be "I think safeties are really important even though nobody in the NFL seems to anymore." Hopefully Bucky and Mac are the secretly brilliant outliers.

[Obrien2Toon]

11 hours ago, HessStation said:

Basically the Jets could have signed Badger and Vacarro and 2017 draft back. 

Probably 2 of my favorite players in college and draft process, but Vaccaro’s been a bust, and Badger’s done, his knees are shot

[Larz]

Scouts can't just admit it's basically guesswork and often fails no matter what the approach is. 

You're predicting the future of a 21 year old kid about to become a millionaire and not have to go to class anymore. 

What will he do with the free time and Instagram followers? 

Study and work out or smoke and coast? 

The drive and will to be great is what separates these guys and they will all tell you they want it, you have to basically guess right. 

If there was a formula everyone would use it 

Even Ozzie has a bust list. 

 

[T0mShane]

12 hours ago, HessStation said:

Basically the Jets could have signed Badger and Vacarro and 2017 draft back. 

Even Mathieu said that teams don’t pay safeties anymore because they have to instead spend that money on third and fourth corners. When it’s third and eight against the Pats or Eagles, even a really good safety is useless in that situation. 

[JohnnyLV]

Article is ludicrous. Safety is the least important position in football and is paid as such. The Jets drafting safety in 1st and 2nd rounds is one of the more idiotic moves in Jets draft history, and there are many idiotic moves to choose from.

[rangerous]

21 hours ago, varjet said:

This is a very well written article, and he makes a number of great points, but Brooks is confused on the safeties.  

Basically it appears that he says that they are really important and valuable, yet none of the GMs want to pay for them in FA.  Therefore, there must be a problem.  

I think the reason that the GMs don’t want to pay for them in FA is that they are often good drafted, even in the lower rounds.  Yes, the Jets drafted safety last year in rounds 1 and 2, and they are pretty good, but look at the good safeties drafted lower.

The key to the draft is draft positions difficult to sign in FA, and use the leverage of the 5th year option and Franchise tag to lock up those types.  Mac has not gotten them memo yet, although my guess is that heimerdinger has written it for him.   It is likely in his inbox. 

imo there is still an attitude that cornerbacks can be turned into safeties.  maybe physically but the safety position is way more than just coverage skills.  and look at how the steelers played with polumalu and the colts with sanders.  those guys made those defenses go.