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Draft Elimination RND 1; NYCDAN VS PATRIOT KILLA


Paradis

Draft Elimination RND 1; NYCDAN VS PATRIOT KILLA  

37 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins this match in a virtual universe where these two teams meet?

    • NYCDAN
      12
    • PATRIOT KILLA
      25


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Team strengths/strategy—

 

I’m running a “Run N’ Gun’” offense. I have Fran Tarkenton who will set up in the spread formation often with 1 fast, incredibly athletic and skillful option in OBJ on one side, a tall behemoth of a WR in Andre Reed on the other and Wesley Walker the always big play threat in the slot. 

We have a strong/high football IQ O-line to call O-line audibles with the immovable Orlando Pace, the highly intelligent and skillful Nick Mangold, 9x Pro Bowl LG Ruben Brown, the best G in the league today, Zack Martin and a very technically sound Tackle in Bryan Bulaga. They will be able to block for Fran for an extended period of time to get my high velocity weapons open or...Fran can do Fran things and take off for a big gain. We then have Barry Sanders who should do extremely well behind this offensive line(or any offensive line) as he will line up on the right side of Fran and either take a run play to the outside, in the HB cut or run a slick wheel route for a big gain if the opportunity presents itself. Travis Kelce provides the option to stretch the field on seam routes or even crossing patterns when Fran rolls out to either side of the field. 

On Defense we run a 3-4 base with multiple looks to throw at you. Charles Haley and Mark Gastineau provide excellent pass rushing ability along with solid run stopping ability and Damon “Snacks” Harrison will plug the middle at all times. Our ball hawking Free Safety, Brian Dawkins will be lurking around in the backfield at all times and Bob Sanders will bring the thunder on run support, blitzing, ect. We want to switch Dawkins into the SS position to rush the QB or get TFL’s while If NYCDan decides to use PA more regularly. We feel like McAlister can hold up on his side of the field long enough to create a sack opportunity or forced incompletion. Justin Houston/Bryan Cox will bring the heat on the pass rush as much as I can get them to without passing out. Bobby Wagner will patrol the middle as he is a very solid coverage LB with great tackling skills too. Keith Brooking can be looked at in the same light. Their purpose is to shut down the run if Martin gets to the next level on a very solid run stopping D-line while also being able to cover Vernon Davis over the middle.

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32 minutes ago, BigO said:

Tarkenton sucks. Terrible in big games, noodle arm. Bree’s would light that defense UP - not even close.

I believe my safety combo is deadly enough to halt that. Brees isn’t a mobile guy so between different exotic looks i’d be able to force incompletions in a similar way that the Jets did to Brees in 2013. Brian Dawkins can come on the blitz, Bob Sanders can, I can drop Wagner back into coverage and take away the roll outs. 

I think the defense is plenty versatile and star studded enough to contain any field day Brees may be trying to have.. Give Brees Antonio Brown and we’ll have a harder task but I feel confident in the ability to stop who Dan has.

 I think Fran is a fine QB for the system I run but as always i respect your opinion, O.

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 I went for strong lines on both sides of the ball (and pretty happy with the result).  It's a classic 4-3 Defense but with the best pair of DTs possible (literally 1 and 2 or perhaps 1 and 3 if Merlin Olsen sneaks in there) and a top-5 DE on one side and a violent but effective one on the other side.  Let's start with run defense.  If you believe any team can run effectively against Greene and Lilly in the middle, then there's really nothing more I can say.  Taking that away relegates Sanders to running around the edge which is easier to defend if you know where it's going.  Not going to stop him but should keep things under control.

Passing is the bigger concern.  Wilcox is specifically tasked with eliminating the opposing TE, which was his absolute specialty as the best of his era (Mackey, Casper, etc. willingly admit).  Kelce will be a minimal impact in the passing game.  Scrambling was a big part of Fran's game but I don't think that's going to be easy against my front-7.  The trio of WRs will make some plays against my secondary.  Renfro is an all-time great and can stop one of them, but the rest of the unit may give up some yards.  The question is, can his O-Line consistently protect Tarkenton long enough to make those passes.  Again, I refer to the two best DTs of all time and approximately the 5th best DE of all time backed by OLBs who both got their share of INTs and could drop back to cover the middle.

On offense, when I drafted Brees I knew I needed a monster line to give him room to work and with Upshaw, Stephenson and Gregg, I have 3 of the absolute best out there (all top-5 at their positions on Brandt's lists).  Hill and Turner are not historically dominant, but there's not really a weakness there and while Turner is young, he's between two of the absolute best vets and will be fine.  PK's DL just doesn't come close to this in terms of pure talent.  This unit is specifically meant to be good at pulling (all of them).  And here is one option I like.  I'm going to pull and run Forrest Gregg right at Gastineau and have the RB wave to him as he passes by while Mark is trying to get to Brees.  That's Gastineau's weakness and we will exploit it until they adjust.  Between pounding him with Lynch and running around him with Martin, he will tire and Justin Houston behind him isn't going to consistently stop that play close to the LoS.

On the passing side, Warfield is fantastic (#60 in SI's top-100 all-time players) on the long routes and Monk and Davis are solid on both short and long but also both very solid blockers so we have options.  Due to the specific traits of all of my OL being selected for being excellent at moving the line, we can run an RPO with Brees having Monk on the short slant, Martin on the swing pass, or just pitch to Lynch and let him do his thing.  

What it comes down to is I think we will run and control the ball on PK while he will have to try to pass deep on me.  I just don't see the level of top-tier talent on his team to win that battle but let the voters decide!

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12 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I believe my safety combo is deadly enough to halt that. Brees isn’t a mobile guy so between different exotic looks i’d be able to force incompletions in a similar way that the Jets did to Brees in 2013. Brian Dawkins can come on the blitz, Bob Sanders can, I can drop Wagner back into coverage and take away the roll outs. 

I think the defense is plenty versatile and star studded enough to contain any field day Brees may be trying to have.. Give Brees Antonio Brown and we’ll have a harder task but I feel confident in the ability to stop who Dan has.

 I think Fran is a fine QB for the system I run but as always i respect your opinion, O.

I think you may be overlooking that I have 3 of the best OL of all time.  This O-Line was built to protect Drew and pull at will.

Forrest Gregg is generally considered the #1 RT of all time.

Dwight Stephenson is generally considered anywhere from #1 to #3 all-time for Centers

Gene Upshaw is one of the top-5 OGs of all time on almost any list.  

I believe it would take a world-class DL to win the trench battle and I don't think your team specifically has that as it's strength.

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Just now, nycdan said:

I think you may be overlooking that I have 3 of the best OL of all time.  This O-Line was built to protect Drew and pull at will.

Forrest Gregg is generally considered the #1 RT of all time.

Dwight Stephenson is generally considered anywhere from #1 to #3 all-time for Centers

Gene Upshaw is one of the top-5 OGs of all time on almost any list.  

I believe it would take a world-class DL to win the trench battle and I don't think your team specifically has that as it's strength.

I think you are underestimating my DL in the same breath to be fair. We have the players to push back and more important the linebacking core with the ability to not only blanket your WR’s and force coverage sacks but also to make sure tackles on contact.

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Bud Carson's own words:

Quote

 

As much as the Jets need a pass-rusher, Bud Carson, their defensive coordinator, yesterday put Gastineau's contribution into its proper perspective.

''He never had any discipline, he never had any dedication,'' Carson said. ''Except to sack the passer.''

By the Jets' count, Gastineau had 107 1/2 career sacks, including a record 22 in the 1984 season. But that's all he lived for. His sacks.

 

 

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I also don’t think your Dline is messing with Orlando Pace, Ruben Brown, Nick Mangold, Zack Martin and Bulaga at a consistent enough rate to stop Barry Sanders. 

Sorry but no bueno.

you have some great DT’s but I have some great OL’s so it’s jut up to the voters to decide who would get the best of who in the trenches.

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Also, here's a resource I used during the draft.  Far from the definitive ranking but reflective of how these guys were viewed by some people who do this every day.  https://www.si.com/specials/mmqb-nfl-all-time-draft/draft-results.html

Draft positions (NYCDAN OL):  Stephenson: 53, Gregg: 61, Upshaw: 73

Draft positions (PK DL): Haley: 58

 

Draft positions (NYCDAN DL): Greene: 2, Lilly: 26, Atkins: 114

Draft positions (PK OL): Pace: 91, Martin: 223

 

I like both of my lines' chances.

 

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5 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I also don’t think your Dline is messing with Orlando Pace, Ruben Brown, Nick Mangold, Zack Martin and Bulaga at a consistent enough rate to stop Barry Sanders. 

Sorry but no bueno.

I'm guessing you didn't grow up watching Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly play.  If true, I guess I can't fault you for that opinion.  But trust me, no O-Line in existence could stop that pair up the middle.  The pocket would be disrupted constantly.  Now Tarkenton was a good scrambler so you have that, but he's not likely to have time for a 5-step drop very often.

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Also, here's a resource I used during the draft.  Far from the definitive ranking but reflective of how these guys were viewed by some people who do this every day.  https://www.si.com/specials/mmqb-nfl-all-time-draft/draft-results.html

Draft positions (NYCDAN OL):  Stephenson: 53, Gregg: 61, Upshaw: 73

Draft positions (PK DL): Haley: 58

 

Draft positions (NYCDAN DL): Greene: 2, Lilly: 26, Atkins: 114

Draft positions (PK OL): Pace: 91, Martin: 223

 

I like both of my lines' chances.

 

Martin is 223 all time because he’s still a young player and one of the best so I take 223 with a grain of salt. Pace is one of the best ever and can easily stand up to any of those DT’s.

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1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

Martin is 223 all time because he’s still a young player and one of the best so I take 223 with a grain of salt. Pace is one of the best ever and can easily stand up to any of those DT’s.

OTs don't typically oppose DTs.

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5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I'm guessing you didn't grow up watching Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly play.  If true, I guess I can't fault you for that opinion.  But trust me, no O-Line in existence could stop that pair up the middle.  The pocket would be disrupted constantly.  Now Tarkenton was a good scrambler so you have that, but he's not likely to have time for a 5-step drop very often.

No, I didn’t grow up watching them but while I directed my attention to OL a good portion of the draft, that is why I grabbed Tarkenton so I can add that element to my offense. We would try to run PA roll outs and line up in shot gun/pistol formation for the majority of the game and try to neutralize that rush with quick slants to OBJ who can take slants 80 yards.

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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-bears-atkins-appreciation-spt-0103-20160102-story.html

 

Win or lose, this kind of stuff is so much fun to read about the greats of past eras.  This is Doug Atkins, my RDE.  While you are considering your vote, and thinking "nobody could beat Orlando Pace", give this a read.

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Atkins was 6-foot-8, 275 pounds, the size of Lebron James, huge for a defensive end today and freakish 63 years ago when Atkins began his 17-year NFL career. At Tennessee on a basketball scholarship, Atkins won a conference high jump title in track and field and was talked into playing football.

St. Clair was 6-9 himself, quite unusual for an offensive tackle, but he confirmed the unspoken strategy among all offensive linemen tasked with facing Atkins: "Don't make him mad."

"No question he was the strongest man in the world," safety Richie Petitbon said. "When he wanted to play, nobody could block him. In that year (1963), I think he knocked out eight quarterbacks. I mean they left the field, babe."

Fullback Rick Casares once said: "We used to hope that somebody would hold him. The next play you would see guys flying around like King Kong had gotten ahold of them. Awesome. I've seen him grab a tackle by the shoulder pads and just flip him over like a doll, then come in on a back that weighed 225 pounds without breaking stride and hit him in the chest, knock him over on his back, reach over, grab the quarterback by the shoulder pads and throw him down with one arm."

Quarterback sacks were not an official statistic until 1982, the year Atkins and Olsen were inducted into the Hall together, two years after the Rams' Deacon Jones was honored. Jones gets credit for inventing the term sack. Atkins estimated he had 25 in his best year, when teams passed fewer than 20 times per game in 12- and 14-game seasons.

 

 

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Pace was 6-7 and 325 pounds. A strong athlete — but a graceful athlete, blessed with speed and quickness and great range … an opponent, Chuck Smith, once described playing Pace as trying to run around the side of the mountain — except that the mountain moves along with you. 

 

I once watched a Redskins defensive back intercept pass in the end zone, run out with the ball, and get tackled 45, 50 yards down the field by Pace — the biggest player on the field. 

 

That athleticism and ferocity served him well in an extremely demanding offense. 

 

Between 1999 and 2005, Pace’s seven-year peak that represented the seven seasons of the Mike Martz offense in St. Louis, the Rams attempted the most passes, completed the most passes, threw for the most yards, were No. 1 in completion percentage, and were first in yards per passing attempt. 

“I never remember having to put a tight end on Orlando’s side to give him help,” Martz told me. “I never put a running back over there to chip. We were a very aggressive offense, and we did some things that no one else was doing back then, and we had to have the perfect tackle to make it all go. If Orlando couldn’t keep Warner’s blind side clean, or if Orlando just had a lot of breakdowns, we wouldn’t have been able to do a lot of the stuff that puts over 500 points for three years in a row. 

 

“It was ridiculous, what we asked Orlando to do. But you could just run any formation or routes that you wanted, knowing that he’d be over there. You could just X out his man, and everyone else on the offense, including the coaches, could do their job without concern.”

 

They all said the same thing when I asked … Warner, Faulk, Bruce — and prominent coaches including Bill Belichick, Dan Reeves, Andy Reid and Tony Dungy. Their opinion was unanimous: Pace kept that high-risk offense from cracking and was so good that Martz continued to add plays and schemes and hit opponents with even more creative and crazy (in a positive way) stuff. 

And a couple of things jumped out at me in my research of the STATS LLC data base. 

 

Consider: 

 

— From 1999 through 2005, Pace’s seven-season peak, the Rams used sets that had four or five receivers on 33 percent of their passing attempts. Often it was an empty backfield, but sometimes Faulk would stay in to pick up inside blitzes, or he’d head out on a pass pattern. The Rams were higely successful in these four or five wideout sets, completing 65 percent of the passing attempts, netting the league’s highest average per passing attempt out of these formations. 

 

— And how did this compare to the rest of the league between 1999 and 2005? The Rams used 4 or 5 wideout sets at a rate 71 percent higher than the league average. You heard that right: the Rams ran 4 or 5 wideout sets at rate that was 71 percent higher than the league average. And with Warner or Bulger exposed in those sets, Pace wasn’t getting help on the far left edge. 

 

— To bring J. Odgen and Walter Jones into the equation, consider the number of 4 or 5 wideout sets used on passing attempts by the Ravens (Ogden), Seahawks (Jones) and Rams (Pace) over those seven seasons: 

 

Ravens … 355 times.

 

Seahawks … 660 times.

 

Rams … 1,236 times. 

 

Again, Pace never had help on his side of the field… Martz was completely confident in putting Orlando out there on the proverbial island… not much was going to get past him… and in some games the defense would just give up on beating Pace and switch its best pass rusher to the opposite side. 

 

Obviously, Pace faced a higher degree of difficulty than any left tackle in the league … and he still dominated.

 

Pace was also a ferocious run blocker. When the Rams needed the tough yards, they usually ran it to his side. According to STATS, Faulk averaged more than 5 yards per carry when he ran to the outside of the left guard — either behind Pace, who was plowing blockers straight on … or swinging wide of Pace if ‘Big O’  was muscling his man to the inside. Pace wasn’t content to take out one defender. He had the quickness and determination to get to the second or third level. It wasn’t unusual to see him wiping out defensive backs downfield. Those famous Orlando Pace pancake blocks were fun to watch.

 

Pace was put under more pressure than any left tackle of his generation — and played as well, perhaps even better, than the best of the best of his generation. A sure lockdown left tackle that gave his creative offensive-minded coach the supreme confidence to push the envelope in a way that no NFL team dared to do at that time. Pace was very much a giant … and a giant part of the foundation that formed one of the most prolific offenses of the modern game

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.101sports.com/2016/02/10/my-presentation-why-orlando-pace-is-a-hall-of-famer/amp/

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Atkins was 6'8" 275 lbs. in the 1960s!

I don't even know how to translate that into the equivalent during the 2000s when Pace played.

Pace was only an inch shorter but heavier yet graceful and fast on his feet. Both amazing athletes. You can’t take anything away from Pace’s footwork and agility at that size though.

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2 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Pace was only an inch shorter but heavier yet graceful and fast on his feet. Both amazing athletes. You can’t take anything away from Pace’s footwork and agility at that size though.

NO questioning how great Pace was.  But this is a good test of whether we really are going to put these players into their historical perspective.  Atkins was the best DE of the 1960s and at that size, no surprise.  From what I can read (and I've done a lot of research) he was utterly dominant.  If his guess of 25 sacks in a season (12 or 14 games with less passing) is even close to accurate, that's terrifying.  Even if we call it a draw, I don't think running to Pace's side is as smooth sailing as it would have been in his real career.

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3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

NO questioning how great Pace was.  But this is a good test of whether we really are going to put these players into their historical perspective.  Atkins was the best DE of the 1960s and at that size, no surprise.  From what I can read (and I've done a lot of research) he was utterly dominant.  If his guess of 25 sacks in a season (12 or 14 games with less passing) is even close to accurate, that's terrifying.  Even if we call it a draw, I don't think running to Pace's side is as smooth sailing as it would have been in his real career.

Depends on if Atkins ever lined up against a guy of Pace’s stature and ability during the 60’s, that’s how I would try to view it.

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Think these two teams are very well drafted overall. I keep going back and forth myself. 

I think Sanders is actually the perfect back to go up against Dan's meat grinder defense because you need to make guys miss. I think he shuts down most other power runners.

Edge at qb is Dan i think, oline i'd say is a strength of both teams. Slight edge to Pk but just barely imo. Pk probably has one lf the top olines assembled overall, while Dan has some of the upper echelon position players to have ever played. Pk has more explosive skill players, while dan has kind of a meat and potatoes offense. Defenses are both solid, but i'd give dan the edge. 

I think at the end of the day i vote Dan, but i think if you play this matchup 100 times it's 55-45. Very close. Good job by both here imo. Hope both make it pretty deep. Very balanced teams. 

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3 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Think these two teams are very well drafted overall. I keep going back and forth myself. 

I think Sanders is actually the perfect back to go up against Dan's meat grinder defense because you need to make guys miss. I think he shuts down most other power runners.

Edge at qb is Dan i think, oline i'd say is a strength of both teams. Slight edge to Pk but just barely imo. Pk probably has one lf the top olines assembled overall, while Dan has some of the upper echelon position players to have ever played. Pk has more explosive skill players, while dan has kind of a meat and potatoes offense. Defenses are both solid, but i'd give dan the edge. 

I think at the end of the day i vote Dan, but i think if you play this matchup 100 times it's 55-45. Very close. Good job by both here imo. Hope both make it pretty deep. Very balanced teams. 

Thanks, JVoR.  Really appreciate the well thought-out analysis.  Regardless of which way you vote, you put energy into it and voiced your reasoning and that makes this whole process so worth it.  And I think I agree with your 55-45 split.  That feels about right to me too.  This is not an easy matchup.

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8 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Think these two teams are very well drafted overall. I keep going back and forth myself. 

I think Sanders is actually the perfect back to go up against Dan's meat grinder defense because you need to make guys miss. I think he shuts down most other power runners.

Edge at qb is Dan i think, oline i'd say is a strength of both teams. Slight edge to Pk but just barely imo. Pk probably has one lf the top olines assembled overall, while Dan has some of the upper echelon position players to have ever played. Pk has more explosive skill players, while dan has kind of a meat and potatoes offense. Defenses are both solid, but i'd give dan the edge. 

I think at the end of the day i vote Dan, but i think if you play this matchup 100 times it's 55-45. Very close. Good job by both here imo. Hope both make it pretty deep. Very balanced teams. 

Good analysis here. Respect! 

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8 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Thanks, JVoR.  Really appreciate the well thought-out analysis.  Regardless of which way you vote, you put energy into it and voiced your reasoning and that makes this whole process so worth it.  And I think I agree with your 55-45 split.  That feels about right to me too.  This is not an easy matchup.

Definitely not an easy match up for either of us. I’d say we both did a solid job on drafting, Dan.

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1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

Definitely not an easy match up for either of us. I’d say we both did a solid job on drafting, Dan.

Agreed.  I enjoyed the healthy debate with you and that it stayed positive the whole way.  It certainly looks promising that we'll both advance so perhaps we will meet again on the field of battle!  I have to hope OBJ gets into a contract dispute before then LOL.

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1 minute ago, nycdan said:

Agreed.  I enjoyed the healthy debate with you and that it stayed positive the whole way.  It certainly looks promising that we'll both advance so perhaps we will meet again on the field of battle!  I have to hope OBJ gets into a contract dispute before then LOL.

Most definitely haha. 

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I like both of these teams a lot. Tie breaker for me was QB. I grew up in Minnesota watching Tarkenton run all over the place - like a kid who had stolen a wallet and was being chased by thugs all over the field. It wasn't always pretty. His arm was good but not great. Brees would raise the level of his receivers -- who are solid but not much of a vertical threat. Can't argue with Barry Sanders. And that Dan's DL is really fearsome, with Lambert coming down the throat. Killa's OL is impressive on the other side. they would probably neutralize each other.

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Dan’s middle D and OL is just too powerful imo. Really like his DBs. Vernon Davis was a big mistake and I see some holes and don’t like the players out of position. But I just think that middle is good enough to slow down Sanders. Sorry Killa this one was close. But I just love the Dan middle D and OL units. Not enough fire power from Killa and Barry will have to have a monster game which I just don’t see against that group. Dan w the edge here for me.

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