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jetstream23

Exactly 2 weeks until Week 1 - How can Macc put a bow on this offseason?

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6 hours ago, Lith said:

Cutting draft picks after 1 year is not poor roster management, it is poor drafting.  Keeping a guy on the roster just because he was a high/mid draft paick the year before, when there are better options, is poor roster management, as it compounds the error.  Other than that, I agree with you.  If we were going to draft 2 WRs as we did in 2017, how couold we pick 2 with little to no return experience when that is and has been a glaring hole on the roster.  And can anyone explain to me why we have not seen Tre McBride returning punts in preseason -- he at least has some experience doing it in college.

Now, we are likely going to have to keep a 30 year old WR with limited upside in place of a younger guy with potential just because he is the only capable punt returner we have.  Again, poor roster management.

One of the worst examples of keeping a guy just because he was drafted high is Vlad Ducasse.  I can still see it in my mind, letting Matt Slauson go in FA in order to keep Ducasse simply because Tanny had drafted him in Round 2.  Slauson had been properly drafted by the Jets (2009 - 6th Round), developed for 2-3 years and was a very good starter.  We let him walk.  He went to Chicago and made the Pro Bowl.  Ducasse was gone a year or two later.

Just a reminder of where we've been at that OG spot.  Alan Faneca retired -> Matt Slauson (let go in FA) -> Vlad Ducasse (released) -> Brian Winters

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Free Agency - I like the FA additions Macc has made.  No huge splashes although Trumaine Johnson should be a major upgrade at CB1.  Other moves essentially turned below average position groups into average ones and perhaps average ones into slightly above average.  Avery Williamson, Isaiah Crowell, Spencer Long, and Teddy Bridgewater were all solid additions that improve position groups as a whole.  Terrelle Pryor looks like a very smart, low-risk move with potentially high upside if he's all the way back health-wise.  Grade: B

 

Draft - So far, so good.  After a very astute trade which, sprinkled with a little luck, turned into a potential franchise QB, the Jets drafted a few other players who could be contributors on Day 1.  Nathan Shepherd will either start at DE or be in a heavy rotation with Anderson.  Chris Herndon is a TE that likely was drafted later than expected due to injury and is possibly in the mix for TE1.  Parry Nickerson at CB has been injured but flashed his speed and ball-hawking ability early in camp, he provides some leverage and fallback positioning for the Jets with Buster Skrine at Slot CB.  Trent Cannon appears to be a speedy change of pace RB who could stick as RB3/4 due to Eli McGuire's injury.  Foley Fatukasi looks like he belongs in the NFL but is developmental at the DT spot, a likely PS candidate.  The Jets maintain their 1st Round pick in 2019.  Grade: B+

 

So, what's left to do and where are the weaknesses?  Stop me if you'd heard this before but where will the pass rush come from?  The Jets are still in dire need of an outside pass rusher with speed to come off the edge.  It's the sore thumb on defense that hasn't been fixed in years and one of the two main remaining needs for the team heading into 2018.  While the DLine looks solid, the secondary has been upgraded significantly in the past two years and the ILB spot should be average at worst (I think it could turn out to be a strength...I know I'm in the minority there).  But the passrushing OLB riddle hasn't been solved by Macc, and Todd Bowles just hasn't seemed able to scheme around that weakness like Rex Ryan was able to reasonably well.

The other major need IMO isn't a player on the Offensive Line, it's the entire Offensive Line.  A lot of teams have "hold the fort" kind of guys in certain position groups but the Jets seem to be employing that approach across their entire OLine.  Name a concern and the Jets have it on OLine....Injuries? Hello Beachum and Winters.  Scheme fit? Hey there, James Carpenter.  General mediocrity and Captain Average? Mr. Shell and Mr. Long raise their hands.  They're not horrible but we seem to have a bunch of average guys talent-wise who have other concerns associated with them.  The Jets also seem to have few, if any, young guys behind them who seem like they can come up and challenge.  At a minimum, Mike Maccagnan has given the perception of not valuing Offensive Linemen much and the reality could simply be that he truly doesn't. 45% of an offensive unit is made up of Offensive Lineman (5/11), 23% of the team's starting 22 players are offensive lineman.  In theory, a team should average drafting 3 offensive lineman every 2 years (23% of 7 Draft picks would be 1.6 picks each season).  The Jets trend below that number AND when they do use a draft pick on the Offensive Line it typically is not in the early Rounds.

 

Bottom Line for 2018...

There are two weeks left until the season starts.  Macc had a very good March and April in my opinion, and no team has strengths in every position group.  He also appears to have found a franchise QB and is currently (a trade notwithstanding) rostering the best QB group the Jets have possibly ever had (Vinny T. and Chad Pennington come to mind).  But, the Jets have some pockets of significant concern that have been known for a long time and, to some degree, should be addressed prior to the start of the season.  Trades and FA additions are still possible after roster cuts but.....the clock is ticking....

Great post but I wouldn’t do too much other than scour the cuts around the NFL (especially OL) and/or throw a late conditional pick at the Jags for Fowler. 

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If I am Mac, I am telling Chris that I am cutting my bad draft picks from before this year, will try to take them back on the PS and develop them, and keeping players that will make the team better this year and help Darnold develop.

I would go over how his initial scouting process was insufficient and still full of people from prior regimes that Woody would not let me replace.  But now, they have a better system, more analytics, Heimerdinger who needs a promotion and a raise, and things look bright.

If he does that maybe Chris keeps him around since he got Darnold and better 2018 draft picks and avoids eating his 2019 salary if he is fired.  

I don't think Bowles is flexible enough to do similar things, like firing Kacy and Boyer and hiring a clock manager a la Dick Curl, to keep his own job.  

Let's see who the Jets keep.  

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How long does the average draft pick stick around?

May 13, 2014

When a team drafts a player there are varying expectations but while the expectations of on the field play may vary, all fans hope those players will stick around longer rather than shorter. Last year Bronco fans saw Elway draft a young wide receiver by the name of Tavarres King and then saw him cut before the season even started. Many didn't mind saying 5th round picks rarely make the teams active roster that  this but others were surprised, while King was not a early round pick, they felt a 5th round pick should still make the roster. So I wanted to know, what percentage of players from each round are on the team after X years.

To do this I decided to go back over a decade and looked at each and every draft pick and tracked whether they were with their team each year for up to five years. I took all this data and created a complete table where I was able to see what percentage of players were on the teams that drafted them at the start of their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years. By creating this table we are able to get an idea of how long we can expect a given player to stay with the team that drafted them on average.

The biggest caveat some may have with this is that they feel it doesn't take into account how talented and deep their team is but with a population of 32 picks (on average) for each round over 15 years there is more than enough samples to account for team record and talent.

So lets get into the meat of the matter. To read the table the rows represent the round the players were drafted in while the columns show what percentage of players were on the team after that specific year. For example 96.8% of all 2nd round picks are on the team's active roster that drafted them at the start of year one but only 83.9% at the start of year three.

Round

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

1

99.7%

93.5%

83.9%

77.4%

71.0%

2

96.8%

96.1%

83.9%

74.2%

41.9%

3

96.9%

75.1%

62.5%

37.5%

18.8%

4

91.4%

74.3%

54.3%

34.3%

17.2%

5

81.1%

56.8%

37.8%

24.3%

16.2%

6

70.2%

57.5%

35.3%

20.9%

10.6%

7

58.3%

45.8%

31.3%

21.7%

16.7%

Thanks to Joe Mahoney for creating this visual chart.

 

image.png

 

So How Have Elway's Picks Stood Up?

While five years haven't passed since Elway took over control of Broncos player management, we can still get an idea how his picks have stuck around compared to the data set over the first three seasons. Right away King being cut before he made it to his first game was not actually common, rather it is the exception. But having said that, let's look at Elway's picks. Now this isn't a measurement of play on the field remember, only if they made the active roster. For the first three rounds Elway's picks have all made the team every year, so it's 100% for those rounds, but once we get to the lower rounds things don't look quite as nice. For round four Elway's picks only made the roster their first year 75% of the time with offensive lineman Philip Blake never making the team (and is now with a different team). In the 5th round Elway say another player fall the first year with the aforementioned King not making the roster. In the 6th it gets worse with only one pick making the team his first year (Danny Trevathan). In the 7th round Elway does improve on the average with 2 of his 3 picks making the roster their first year with only Jeremy Beal not joining Virgil Green and Zac Dysert.

Obviously this isn't meant to be a perfect comparison since Elway is only entering his 4th season and his population size of draft picks is also smaller, but we can still draw an idea of what to expect going forward. So remember while expectations for on the field production may vary, there is a historical precedent for how long we should expect the Broncos draftees to stick around.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

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16 hours ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Luckily, Mac has done well with fringe players and other team’s trash. I’m really looking forward to cut down and to see who is available. 

Agreed. We need to upgrade Qvale. He might be the worst swing tackle in the game and could damage our prized QB.

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3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

One of the worst examples of keeping a guy just because he was drafted high is Vlad Ducasse.  I can still see it in my mind, letting Matt Slauson go in FA in order to keep Ducasse simply because Tanny had drafted him in Round 2.  Slauson had be properly drafted by the Jets (2009 - 6th Round), developed for 2-3 years and was a very good starter.  We let him walk.  He went to Chicago and made the Pro Bowl.  Ducasse was gone a year or two later.

Just a reminder of where we've been at that OG spot.  Alan Faneca retired -> Matt Slauson (let go in FA) -> Vlad Ducasse (released) -> Brian Winters

Even worse was keeping Joe Mcknight and letting Danny Woodhead go....

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