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Brian Baldinger's breakdown of Sam Darnold and Jamal Adams.


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6 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Reed and Polamalu weren’t drafted in the top ten so, not sure what you’re getting at. And then your second sentence proves I’m right. So now I’m really not sure what you’re trying to say. All I am saying is that a team last year with gaping holes in major positions took a safety. That goes against the grain of what usually and normally works. 

I'm saying that:

a) you're wrong to say that, empirically, no S could ever justify being a top 10 pick; but

b) right to say that the odds against it are long, which is sufficient reason not to make that pick

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

Adams was a top 10 pick because contrary to what half the board thinks, Adams has elite athleticism along with the unique ability to also play the run.  

 

Actually, his athleticism is a little below average for an NFL safety. His strengths are his intelligence and instincts. 

SPARQ_S_2017.0.jpegGoing clockwise from the top left of the graph, the C quadrant features players with a strong record of production at the college level, but that have questions regarding their athletic ability. The A quadrant (top right) shows the players most likely to succeed at the NFL level; they have a strong track record of production and combine that with the necessary athleticism to allow them to compete at the NFL level. The B quadrant (bottom right) shows superior athletes whose college production has been sub par, leaving scouts to question why this might be the case. The D quadrant (bottom left) is a nasty place for a prospect to find himself; it's where the guys sit whose college production and athletic markers are both below those of their peers.

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18 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Except that you're wrong here, and he does.  Safety is sort of like OG and running back, in that they are positions that both impact the game significantly and where competent to very good performers can typically be found middle to late in the draft, meaning that if you're taking someone at that position in the top 10, the player needs to be an elite level player for the delta between the guy you took and the potential replacement player to be worth giving up other options.

For example, in the Adams draft, we got Marcus Maye in the second, the Cardinals got Budda Baker (a pro bowler) in the second, the Saints got Marcus Williams in the second ...

In terms of other options at 6, the Jets could have taken Marcus Lattimore (who looks like an elite CB and would've saved us 14M/yr on Johnson), Mahomes or Watson (both of whom fit a crying need, and while I like Darnold better than both, I like Mahomes + Chubb better than Darnold + Adams, if only because pass rusher is the second most important position in the game), and all of whom were realistically in play at 6.  Adams may well turn out to be a better player than Lattimore in a vaccuum, but the odds are that the delta between Lattimore and an average CB will be far greater than the delta between Adams and an average safety.  The only way that's not true is if Adams hits at a HOF level.

BTW, I'm a big fan of Adams and what he brings to this team, both on and off the field.  I think picking a S that high is a mistake, but that's a sunk cost and irrelevant now.

Again, not a single NFL GM or player evaluator ever uses the hall of fame as justification of any draft pick.  

And your argument of using player combos taken in different years is something only a fan does.  When drafting in 2017, Mac isn’t thinking “ ooooh I’ll take Cubb next year, so I’ll take Mahomes this year”.  You can only draft the players available to you that year, if your argument is that Mac should have taken Lattimore fine, but he would have to live up to the same standards as any other player selected at 6   If any player selected at 6 became “just average” you would consider it not living up to expectations.   The notion that Adams has to be a hall of famer but Lattimore could be just average to justify 6 is not something that ANY NFL team makes   

 

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I just want to clarify that my issue is with Mac’s draft philosophy and maximizing resources and value, not the players themselves. We can’t turn back time and can only root like hell for who we did in fact draft. If they develop to be above average starters at this point, then that’s great and its less holes to fill. I can live with that after our horrible recent draft history.

I still have valid concerns about Mac’s drafting though and how he values positions. Maybe his philosophy shifts now that he filled a lot of holes with “safe” picks and FA and now he can focus on the O-line/Pass rush? Idk but time will tell. 

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I think what I hate the most about the Adam's and/or Maye hate is that some people here NEED to be right so badly about them being bad picks that they almost hope they preform poorly.

You can just feel the excitement in some people's posts when they get to jump on after a bad play and attack Adams or Maye or some other pick they didn't agree with. They're giddy with excitement and happy to be cynical.

It's so clear to me that people want to be able to say "I told you so" one way or another. Sometimes it feels more so than actually seeing the team succeed. 

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14 minutes ago, slats said:

Actually, his athleticism is a little below average for an NFL safety. His strengths are his intelligence and instincts. 

SPARQ_S_2017.0.jpegGoing clockwise from the top left of the graph, the C quadrant features players with a strong record of production at the college level, but that have questions regarding their athletic ability. The A quadrant (top right) shows the players most likely to succeed at the NFL level; they have a strong track record of production and combine that with the necessary athleticism to allow them to compete at the NFL level. The B quadrant (bottom right) shows superior athletes whose college production has been sub par, leaving scouts to question why this might be the case. The D quadrant (bottom left) is a nasty place for a prospect to find himself; it's where the guys sit whose college production and athletic markers are both below those of their peers.

Unfortunately SPARQ score comes from the combine where he ran a so-so 40.  I would be interested to see his score using his updated 40 from his pro-day which was significantly better.

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12 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Again, not a single NFL GM or player evaluator ever uses the hall of fame as justification of any draft pick.  

And your argument of using player combos taken in different years is something only a fan does.  When drafting in 2017, Mac isn’t thinking “ ooooh I’ll take Cubb next year, so I’ll take Mahomes this year”.  You can only draft the players available to you that year, if your argument is that Mac should have taken Lattimore fine, but he would have to live up to the same standards as any other player selected at 6   If any player selected at 6 became “just average” you would consider it not living up to expectations.   The notion that Adams has to be a hall of famer but Lattimore could be just average to justify 6 is not something that ANY NFL team makes   

 

The point most of us are making is just average CB > just average safety.

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21 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Also, someone tell Baldinger that no one calls us "mean green."

I'd actually prefer it to Gang green. The unintentional connotation there is gross and I just hate it. In any case, I love the OP breakdowns from Baldy. It's always striking to see how JA is perceived away from actual Jet fans. 

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4 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Unfortunately SPARQ score comes from the combine where he ran a so-so 40.  I would be interested to see his score using his updated 40 from his pro-day which was significantly better.

Every college prospect in the history of college prospects runs a better 40 at their pro day than they do at the combine. He's strong, he's smart, but he's just not an elite athlete. That's my biggest problem with the pick. If you're taking a safety that high, he had really better be an exceptional athlete. 

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18 minutes ago, slats said:

Every college prospect in the history of college prospects runs a better 40 at their pro day than they do at the combine. He's strong, he's smart, but he's just not an elite athlete. That's my biggest problem with the pick. If you're taking a safety that high, he had really better be an exceptional athlete. 

Ed Reed ran a 4.57 would u say he isn’t a elite athlete ? 

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35 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Again, not a single NFL GM or player evaluator ever uses the hall of fame as justification of any draft pick.  

Not saying it’s the right philosophy or the wrong one, but this isn’t true. In fact, we lucked into Sam almost exclusively because Gettlemen strongly believed that his high pick should be a potential gold jacket wearer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsday.com/amp/sports/football/giants/giants-draft-dave-gettleman-saquon-barkley-1.17711357

BCCB94BF-EDA4-4D39-BFC9-5AEBCDCCA735.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Again, not a single NFL GM or player evaluator ever uses the hall of fame as justification of any draft pick.  

And your argument of using player combos taken in different years is something only a fan does.  When drafting in 2017, Mac isn’t thinking “ ooooh I’ll take Cubb next year, so I’ll take Mahomes this year”.  You can only draft the players available to you that year, if your argument is that Mac should have taken Lattimore fine, but he would have to live up to the same standards as any other player selected at 6   If any player selected at 6 became “just average” you would consider it not living up to expectations.   The notion that Adams has to be a hall of famer but Lattimore could be just average to justify 6 is not something that ANY NFL team makes   

 

The main issue is:

How easy is it to fill a position with a decent to good player.

How much will it cost me in FA or other capital to fill certain positions.

We have used two 1sts and a 2nd on positions, the players aside that are not as tough to fill as some others.

We have zero good prospect olineman.

We have no pass rushers.

We have a lack of high end weapons for the new QB.

Both Adams and Lee to me had their best games as a jet last game.  If they maintain that level of play the picks will in the end look fine but both safeties and ILBs are easier to fill than other spots.

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

Darnold’s Debut Was More Up And Down Than You Think

It’s been a while since the Jets had this much juice in them. Following an absolute routing of the Detroit Lions in their season opener, by the score of 48-17, New York’s mean team in green was flying high on Monday night.

Anytime a score is that one sided it’s likely due to the offensive not turning the ball over and the defense getting turnovers themselves. That’s exactly what happened, as the Lions finished the game with five turnovers compared to the Jets two.

There were plenty of storylines to choose from in this one. For one, Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford looked dreadful, and that is a major concern going forward. On the flip side, boy, did the Jets defense look good. They had five interceptions from four different players (linebacker Darron Lee nabbed two), and one of which was returned for a touchdown.

But, as this is a draft-centric site, the big takeaway for us was the performance of rookie quarterback Sam Darnold.

giphy.gif

I could’ve sworn Patrick Mahomes played for the Chiefs, but on that pass it looked like, no, wait, that was Darnold.

The play you see above was Darnold’s first pass of the game. As if we need to state the obvious: it wasn’t great. That truly was Darnold’s “Welcome to the NFL.” You can’t be doing anything remotely close to that in this league unless you’re absolutely cannon-ing a pass from sideline to sideline — and few quarterbacks even have the arm to do it. Open space just doesn’t exist for long at the NFL level, and Darnold learned that the hard way.

giphy.gif

The good news is it didn’t take Darnold much time to re-group. He was pretty sharp recognizing where open space was, but he did serve up his receivers a few times in that game. It is part of the job as a receiver to catch through tough contact, but quicker decision making for Darnold during the action and in the pre-snap will give his guys better chances for yards after the catch, and will help them not get leveled as much, as seen above.

giphy.gif

Darnold is a rookie, so this sort of thing is expected, but it is also worth pointing out, as you’ll likely only read articles of how incredible Darnold was against the Lions. All I’m saying is he was good, but you see where he needs to improve.

The play above was the big one, for me. It was a play that ended in a touchdown for Darnold and his team, but it showed a few areas that need to be improved on.

First of all, he has to get rid of that ball sooner. You can literally see the hesitation in his steps above.

giphy.gif

Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson had that safety beat almost two full seconds before Darnold threw that ball. It can’t be that slow. He has to recognize that his guy has the separation advantage much sooner.

Not to mention Darnold has to have better ball placement. The pass was good enough to be caught, but it was also bad enough to be batted away, if the safety had played it better.

A successful play, but one that also revealed little things you can see Darnold still needs to work on. But we certainly saw areas of Darnold’s game, even in Week 1, that made him the Top 3 prospect he was.

giphy.gif

When I watched that throw live I couldn’t help but smile due to how “Sam Darnold” it was. Going against the grain, falling away from his throw, right to the sideline where it needed to be. Darnold hit so many of those unorthodox throws while at USC, and he showcased that ability in his first game. He’s a guy you can trust to delivery in some not-so-ideal passing conditions.

Ultimately Darnold is 1-0 as a starter in the NFL, and any quarterback who’s made it that far will tell you that is hard to do. But, the Lions’ defense is really bad. It was a nice first team to go up against, but just because it was a good day in the end didn’t mean it was a perfect day for Darnold.

Don't know who wrote this, but I really can't agree on his criticism of Darnold for holding the ball to long.  On the Enunwa throw up the middle Darnold couldn't have thrown that ball any quicker.  It was the key thing that made the play work.  Ball was out like lighting.  

On the Anderson TD, it was only a 3 man rush, Darnold had plenty of time, it was to his credit that he didn't panic because none of his first guyswere open,  looked off 2 other receivers, then found Anderson.  He didn't hold the ball to long on either throw.  He used the time he was given well.

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Except that you're wrong here, and he does.  Safety is sort of like OG and running back, in that they are positions that both impact the game significantly and where competent to very good performers can typically be found middle to late in the draft, meaning that if you're taking someone at that position in the top 10, the player needs to be an elite level player for the delta between the guy you took and the potential replacement player to be worth giving up other options.

For example, in the Adams draft, we got Marcus Maye in the second, the Cardinals got Budda Baker (a pro bowler) in the second, the Saints got Marcus Williams in the second ...

In terms of other options at 6, the Jets could have taken Marcus Lattimore (who looks like an elite CB and would've saved us 14M/yr on Johnson), Mahomes or Watson (both of whom fit a crying need, and while I like Darnold better than both, I like Mahomes + Chubb better than Darnold + Adams, if only because pass rusher is the second most important position in the game), and all of whom were realistically in play at 6.  Adams may well turn out to be a better player than Lattimore in a vaccuum, but the odds are that the delta between Lattimore and an average CB will be far greater than the delta between Adams and an average safety.  The only way that's not true is if Adams hits at a HOF level.

BTW, I'm a big fan of Adams and what he brings to this team, both on and off the field.  I think picking a S that high is a mistake, but that's a sunk cost and irrelevant now.

Probably not the best week to hype lattimore who many didn’t want here cause of his injury history anyway.  I won’t even bring up his other 2 matchups before this with Funchess and Thielen.

 

DA6C0CD4-6DA8-480E-8BD6-9DEBA0BBF424.jpeg

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Adams is not an elite athlete.

Adams is not HOF Caliber

Adams should not have been taken 6th.

 

So now that's that out of the way, what's the point of all this?  Can he help the Jets win?  Can he just be Jamal Adams and not the subject of what he can't be or shouldn't have been?

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19 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The main issue is:

How easy is it to fill a position with a decent to good player.

How much will it cost me in FA or other capital to fill certain positions.

We have used two 1sts and a 2nd on positions, the players aside that are not as tough to fill as some others.

We have zero good prospect olineman.

We have no pass rushers.

We have a lack of high end weapons for the new QB.

Both Adams and Lee to me had their best games as a jet last game.  If they maintain that level of play the picks will in the end look fine but both safeties and ILBs are easier to fill than other spots.

I get all that, I as well as you have been saying for years that the Jets have avoided those positions with premium picks in the draft.  My whole point was that Adams doesn’t have to be a hall of famer to be live up to being picked 6th overall.  That was a s**t draft for edge rushers and OTs and O linemen in general.  Take a look at who was selected in the next 10 picks.  I could maybe make the case for Barnett as an edge guy, but let’s face it, Mac would have gotten killed for reaching that much right there.  Lattimore? No way   

 

My heart wanted Mike Williams, but oh well, we rarely draft what my heart wants..Lol.  

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Actually, his athleticism is a little below average for an NFL safety. His strengths are his intelligence and instincts. 

SPARQ_S_2017.0.jpegGoing clockwise from the top left of the graph, the C quadrant features players with a strong record of production at the college level, but that have questions regarding their athletic ability. The A quadrant (top right) shows the players most likely to succeed at the NFL level; they have a strong track record of production and combine that with the necessary athleticism to allow them to compete at the NFL level. The B quadrant (bottom right) shows superior athletes whose college production has been sub par, leaving scouts to question why this might be the case. The D quadrant (bottom left) is a nasty place for a prospect to find himself; it's where the guys sit whose college production and athletic markers are both below those of their peers.

This comes off as very impressive but who put together this chart?  And how are all those "A" safeties doing so far?  And why was Adams a consensus top pick over all those other guys???

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1 minute ago, Bowles Movement said:

This comes off as very impressive but who put together this chart?  And how are all those "A" safeties doing so far?  And why was Adams a consensus top pick over all those other guys???

Well the 2nd rd pick obi melifonwu was cut and isn’t in the league currently . But he is 6’4 freak 

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

Unfortunately SPARQ score comes from the combine where he ran a so-so 40.  I would be interested to see his score using his updated 40 from his pro-day which was significantly better.

The issue is that the pro day is not electronically timed.  They are hand timed and IMO subject to being a popularity contest.  When he ran it they claimed 4.33 and you can see that all over the internet, but Gil Brandt had him at 4.45.  Still faster, but with the usual .05 added for hand timing, not insane.  FWIW, I have seen his pro day time listed at 4.33, 4.45, 4.40, and 4.38. 

More importantly, SPARQ used 4.40. The problem wasn't his 40.  His jumps were sub-par.  His cone/shuttle times were decent, but nothing great and he has long arms, but is on the short side.   Here is the SPARQ on the 2017 safety class.  He may have "elite athleticism" for a human, but he is below average for an NFL safety.

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People need to stop with this "box Safety" nonsense. 

Jamal Adams was used @ CB 33% of the time as a rookie last year.

And even on his first career interception @ Detroit was lined up as a Nickel back in one on one coverage. 

This man is a complete Football player who can run, tackle and cover. He's all around and a very, very rare type of Defensive gem. 

Put this kid on the trade block today and you're getting a 1st round offer from 31 other NFL GM's by tonight at the very latest.  

Todd Bowles has been utilizing Jamal Adams throughout not only our Secondary but also as an LB against the run since day one. 

He's a versatile playmaker with versatility in his game, so how the fk is this now being spun into a complaint and/or a knock on Jamal Adams... when he's one of the most versatile Secondary players within the entire league? 

Box Safety my ass. Jamal Adams was never an LSU "Box Safety" but instead roamed their entire defense. 

For anyone (and everyone) who thought or ever felt that this kid was not worth a top 1-3 draft pick let alone a steal at 6th overall? I'm sorry; but you do not know Football. 

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30 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Don't know who wrote this, but I really can't agree on his criticism of Darnold for holding the ball to long.  On the Enunwa throw up the middle Darnold couldn't have thrown that ball any quicker.  It was the key thing that made the play work.  Ball was out like lighting.  

On the Anderson TD, it was only a 3 man rush, Darnold had plenty of time, it was to his credit that he didn't panic because none of his first guyswere open,  looked off 2 other receivers, then found Anderson.  He didn't hold the ball to long on either throw.  He used the time he was given well.

Agree with you on the Enunwa throw, the play fake was the hold up. But the pass to Anderson was late and not placed well to the authors point. Could've easily been batted away.

He's a rookie and it's very nitpicky, but I assume it's a reaction to the mad fluffing going on

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9 minutes ago, CTM said:

Agree with you on the Enunwa throw, the play fake was the hold up. But the pass to Anderson was late and not placed well to the authors point. Could've easily been batted away.

He's a rookie and it's very nitpicky, but I assume it's a reaction to the mad fluffing going on

Watch the play again .. look at the fake Darnold makes with his body that draws the safety in . Which was just enough to free up Robby . He wasn’t late on the throw . 

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5 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

Well the 2nd rd pick obi melifonwu was cut and isn’t in the league currently . But he is 6’4 freak 

Melifonwu is not out of the league.  He is on the Raiders IR.  He was on waivers, but nobody bit because he has had chronic hip issues. 

John Johnson (3rd round) starts for the Rams and by all accounts had a better rookie season than Adams.  Josh Jones (2nd round) starts for the Packers.  Marcus Williams (2nd round) starts for the Saints and despite the Minneapolis Miracle also looked better than Adams last season.  Rayshawn Jenkins was a 4th and is in the Chargers rotation.

If you go back to prior years, Adian Amos (5th round) was tops in 2015.

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56 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

Ed Reed ran a 4.57 would u say he isn’t a elite athlete ? 

I wasn't talking about Ed Reed. 

21 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

This comes off as very impressive but who put together this chart?  And how are all those "A" safeties doing so far?  And why was Adams a consensus top pick over all those other guys???

Adams is a smart player with a lot of production and no slouch at self-promotion, but not an elite athlete for his position. He's a good football player -maybe even very good- but not a #6 overall football player. He's a slightly below average athlete who plays a lower valued position. 

It's not his fault that the Jets drafted him so high, and I don't take it out on the kid. In fact, I was very happy to see him get off the interception schneid and quiet his critics - including me. But a player of his athletic ability at his position should be found in the middle or later rounds of the draft. 

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25 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

This comes off as very impressive but who put together this chart?  And how are all those "A" safeties doing so far?  And why was Adams a consensus top pick over all those other guys???

I am not sure who put it together, but I posted the SPARQ data above. I am not discussing his rank as a prospect, just disputing the false claim that he is "an elite athlete."  The chart actually shows part of the reason he is highly rated.  His "production points" were a major positive.  Nobody is saying that drafting should be restricted solely to the best SPARQ players, but the idea that Adams is elite when he is slightly below average is misguided.

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

I wasn't talking about Ed Reed. 

Adams is a smart player with a lot of production and no slouch at self-promotion, but not an elite athlete for his position. He's a good football player -maybe even very good- but not a #6 overall football player. He's a slightly below average athlete who plays a lower valued position. 

It's not his fault that the Jets drafted him so high, and I don't take it out on the kid. In fact, I was very happy to see him get off the interception schneid and quiet his critics - including me. But a player of his athletic ability at his position should be found in the middle or later rounds of the draft. 

Ill ask again-If he isnt an elite athlete why was he so highly touted?  He was a consensus top 5 pick and everybody was surprised he fell to the Jets.  Adams self promotion cant be the answer.  I get that QBs get over drafted for their value but not safeties

I guess we can re visit this at the end of the season and see if the first game was a fluke or the beginning of his stardom

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Adams is a smart player with a lot of production and no slouch at self-promotion, but not an elite athlete for his position. He's a good football player -maybe even very good- but not a #6 overall football player. He's a slightly below average athlete who plays a lower valued position. 
It's not his fault that the Jets drafted him so high, and I don't take it out on the kid. In fact, I was very happy to see him get off the interception schneid and quiet his critics - including me. But a player of his athletic ability at his position should be found in the middle or later rounds of the draft. 
I'm indifferent to Adams but this guy gets hype from many including past/present players considering the amount of hate he gets.



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3 minutes ago, slats said:

I wasn't talking about Ed Reed. 

Adams is a smart player with a lot of production and no slouch at self-promotion, but not an elite athlete for his position. He's a good football player -maybe even very good- but not a #6 overall football player. He's a slightly below average athlete who plays a lower valued position. 

It's not his fault that the Jets drafted him so high, and I don't take it out on the kid. In fact, I was very happy to see him get off the interception schneid and quiet his critics - including me. But a player of his athletic ability at his position should be found in the middle or later rounds of the draft. 

The funny part is that a few years ago everyone was crying because the Jets took guys like Stephen Hill and Gholston who were freak athletes but awful football players. Now people complain that we took an elite football player who may not have elite athleticism. 

It looks like the Jets learned their lesson but not the fanbase. 

 

 

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I know the "leader of men" stuff gets mocked but I really do think there's been a big culture shift on the defense and Adams is a big part of it. Monday was only one game, but this defense has an identity and a confidence that they haven't had since the early Rex years. Loafers like Wilkerson and Richardson are gone and this group seems to hold each other accountable.

Doesn't make it worth 6 overall, necessarily, but I personally have loved Adams from the get go and think he's brought something intangible to this team that is worth more than most of the "you can't take a safety that high" folks appreciate.

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