ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said: HOLY COW! Online CIVILITY and Respectful Discourse on Jets Nation Forum!?!?!?!?!? ? GFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 20 hours ago, kevinc855 said: With Jaguars and Broncos in following weeks it seems me we need this. Even if not for wins and losses for the confidence of Sam as well. Jets need to show up Thursday They are all must wins. They all count the same. With that said, the general view here at JN seems to be "all bout Darnold" for 2018, so W/L don't matter. If we want the 2018 season to have meaning in terms of post season, yes, Thursday is probably a "must win" from that perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: Several points here. The initial line that I have seen is Browns -3. After considering a 3 point advantage for the home team, we can conclude that Vegas perceives the public view that these teams are equal. And to that point, lines are not a prediction of team strength, but the betting public.s perception of the strength of the teams at that time. The line I saw had the Browns at -3.5 The initial line has more factored in than just a guess as to public perception. It has to say at least SOMETHING about the way the teams are presently constructed and performing on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 40 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said: Vegas disagrees. Yes because they are at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said: The line I saw had the Browns at -3.5 The initial line has more factored in than just a guess as to public perception. It has to say at least SOMETHING about the way the teams are presently constructed and performing on the field. I think it has more to do with the Browns are facing a rookie QB at home, than anything else. I think it's very possible even if the Jets squeaked out the win against Miami, Browns would be favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said: The line I saw had the Browns at -3.5 The initial line has more factored in than just a guess as to public perception. It has to say at least SOMETHING about the way the teams are presently constructed and performing on the field. Common knowledge is that Vegas creates lines as a predictor of public perception of the teams, so that they try to get a 50/50 split on their bets, so they collect the vig. And, the public at large has proven to be generally horrible at predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 I heard if the Jets lose this week their franchise will be canceled forever. So I guess this one really is must win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gas2No99 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, TeddEY said: GFY WTH is your problem little Teddy? No one was addressing you and I was complimenting 2 other posters and don't see how you parlayed yourself and @$$hole comment to my post. Bad day at the office? Who twisted your tit, son? Show me on the doll. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: Common knowledge is that Vegas creates lines as a predictor of public perception of the teams, so that they true to get a 50/50 split on their bets, so they collect the vig. And, the public at large has proven to be generally horrible at predicting. Yeah, yeah I'm all over the vig. First bookie joint visit was at 15 years old. But there is more than just public perception of teams at play. " So besides thinking like the public, what do oddsmakers use to their advantage to beat bettors with their numbers? Well, they use computer algorithms and fancy math formulas to help generate a rough guess at what they should use for the opening line. They then use power rankings to crunch numbers and rank how the teams fare against each other in key stat categories. The key is releasing a number they hope will be right in the sweet spot where half the bettors will pick one team and half will pick the other. " Like in the Giants - Pats superbowl. Their initial algorithm had the Pats as 9.5 pt favorites. They knew that the Pats were undefeated and they could inflate the number to -13, because of public perception. I doubt anyone is perceiving the Browns as better than the Jets to a degree that it would change the betting line by much, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 If we want to make the playoffs this year, probably yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gas2No99 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, rex-n-effect said: I heard if the Jets lose this week their franchise will be canceled forever. So I guess this one really is must win. My younger brother keeps reiterating how the NFL should have relegation. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said: The key is releasing a number they hope will be right in the sweet spot where half the bettors will pick one team and half will pick the other. " As I said. Public perception. We concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 The ironic thing is that Jets fans should probably feel more confident going into this game at 1-1 instead of 2-0 and you know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: As I said. Public perception. We concur No we do not. You intimated that it was SOLELY public perception as if on Monday morning they were conducting phone polls of all males aged 18-65 across the United States of America. It is mind-boggling that you think you can get away with taking one sentence from an entire paragraph and try making your point with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said: WTH is your problem little Teddy? No one was addressing you and I was complimenting 2 other posters and don't see how you parlayed yourself and @$$hole comment to my post. Bad day at the office? Who twisted your tit, son? Show me on the doll. lol. It was a joke. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said: No we do not. You intimated that it was SOLELY public perception as if on Monday morning they were conducting phone polls of all males aged 18-65 across the United States of America. You are being quite silly and contradicting your own post. Simple questions here. Try to answer truthfully: -Is Vegas's goal to achieve a 50/50 split on bets? -Do you believe that the vast majority of bettors crunch numbers to make their bets, or bet on a hunch or feeling, based on the provided line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Just now, TeddEY said: It was a joke. Wow. Dick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said: Dick Reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Just now, Scott Dierking said: You are being quite silly and contradicting your own post. Simple questions here. Try to answer truthfully: -Is Vegas's goal to achieve a 50/50 split on bets? -Do you believe that the vast majority of bettors crunch numbers to make their bets, or bet on a hunch or feeling, based on the provided line? You are as relentless as Scott Dierking was mediocre. Where do you think they get the original line from? Are you saying that there is no math in it whatsoever? I'm saying there is both. The original line for sure has some math in it. The adjustments after are based on public action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said: You are as relentless as Scott Dierking was mediocre. Where do you think they get the original line from? Are you saying that there is no math in it whatsoever? I'm saying there is both. The original line for sure has some math in it. The adjustments after are based on public action. Wow, you really hurt me with that little statement. Debating someone that thinks that NFL lines are some representation of power rankings, despite all other evidence is a fruitless exercise. Is this where I say something like 'Mark Gastineau was quite dumb as a player, and your posting represents that"? Tit for tat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 3 hours ago, The Crusher said: I think we already beat the worst team in the league last Monday. So relax, eat something and enjoy the game Thursday. We haven't played the Giants yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: Is this where I say something like 'Mark Gastineau was quite dumb as a player, and your posting represents that"? Tit for tat. I feel left out. "I wish you posted here only as long as Teddy Bridgewater was a Jet" I'm going to need a new username. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: Wow, you really hurt me with that little statement. Debating someone that thinks that NFL lines are some representation of power rankings, despite all other evidence is a fruitless exercise. Is this where I say something like 'Mark Gastineau was quite dumb as a player, and your posting represents that"? Tit for tat. YEAH!!!! Gastineau sucked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Klecko73isGod said: YEAH!!!! Gastineau sucked! You:JetNation::Joe Klecko:Hall of Fame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: Wow, you really hurt me with that little statement. Debating someone that thinks that NFL lines are some representation of power rankings, despite all other evidence is a fruitless exercise. Is this where I say something like 'Mark Gastineau was quite dumb as a player, and your posting represents that"? Tit for tat. LOL wasn't trying to hurt your feelings. I'm a writer. It sounded good. Where, at 9am on a Monday morning does Vegas' perception of public perception come from? And again, you picked the one part of an entire paragraph, making that the ENTIRE post to suit your narrative. You play dirty. Let's take our balls and go home. You're giving me agita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, TeddEY said: You:JetNation::Joe Klecko:Hall of Fame So you are saying I belong in Jet Nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, Klecko73isGod said: So you are saying I belong in Jet Nation. Not welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetster Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 I just saw that Bowles is 3-0 vs Cleveland & 20-30 against the rest of the NFL. And around here we call that progress. Im gonna step off the ledge & watch how Sam progresses. By the way I said Bowles compares to another coordinator turned loser coach we had in the past with a "I'm just smarter than you attitude" Bruce Coslet. Todd Bowles (23-30, 0-0), Bruce Coslet (19-31, 0-1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 54 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said: LOL wasn't trying to hurt your feelings. I'm a writer. It sounded good. Where, at 9am on a Monday morning does Vegas' perception of public perception come from? And again, you picked the one part of an entire paragraph, making that the ENTIRE post to suit your narrative. You play dirty. Let's take our balls and go home. You're giving me agita. I apologize for my comment, that was not meant to be that harsh. I am also a writer, but that did not come off appropriate. Vegas gets their spreads from sharps, who understand trends and public betting trends, along with, yes, some idea of team strengths. But, to suggest that Vegas "views the Browns as a better team than the Jets", based on a 3 point line at home, and that the line iss concrete evidence of that, is a fallacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green DNA Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 21 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said: They already won twice this year. With any average kicker, they win those games. So those that would laugh would show their ignorance. At them I laugh. I laugh loudly. HA! so after two wins they are pretty much due for a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Stark said: I prefer to drink something and enjoy the game. However, now I am thinking I may leave the office early, go start the grill and ...... thanks for the idea crush delicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Green DNA said: so after two wins they are pretty much due for for a loss. They are ripe. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 44 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said: I apologize for my comment, that was not meant to be that harsh. I am also a writer, but that did not come off appropriate. Vegas gets their spreads from sharps, who understand trends and public betting trends, along with, yes, some idea of team strengths. But, to suggest that Vegas "views the Browns as a better team than the Jets", based on a 3 point line at home, and that the line iss concrete evidence of that, is a fallacy. So, you're either saying Vegas views the Jets as a better team than the Browns despite making the Jets a half point underdog (without the homefield advantage, which is what the post I responded to was basically saying - that the Jets were the better team) or Vegas does not view either team as better (which just reiterates what I mention above) or Vegas does not concern itself with which team is better, only what the sharps think the public thinks What I really think happened here, where we went awry was: You never mention "some idea of team strengths" in your earlier responses, so either you are backtracking now by casually sliding it in or, despite the fact that you now mention it, you don't really believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Will say one thing. This should be a low scoring game. Thursday games are usually low scoring to begin with. Add to that the rookie QB facing a stout Browns defense and the Browns not really having an offense (They put up 21 points against two defenses that got shredded by KC and Tampa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Jetster said: I just saw that Bowles is 3-0 vs Cleveland & 20-30 against the rest of the NFL. And around here we call that progress. Im gonna step off the ledge & watch how Sam progresses. By the way I said Bowles compares to another coordinator turned loser coach we had in the past with a "I'm just smarter than you attitude" Bruce Coslet. Todd Bowles (23-30, 0-0), Bruce Coslet (19-31, 0-1) Much worse DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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