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Maxman

Sam Darnold Stats and Projection

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We live in the fantasy football era. We all know that stats can be misleading and they certainly don't tell the entire story. That being said the Jets are 7 games into Sam Darnold's rookie year so we have seen a good glimpse of his potential. There is a lot to be happy about when you think about the long term possibilities. For now we wanted to look at where Sam Darnold sits today stat wise:

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He is a rookie and with that comes a fair share of mistakes. 10 TDs and 10 INTs, not the worst we have seen from a Jets QB and certainly not the best. So let's take a look at how this all projects out over a full season. With 7 games played, the Jets are just under the mid way point of the season. So here is how his #'s project if he stays the same the rest of the way.

image.png

Not terrible for a rookie season. If nothing changes the number of interceptions would be the biggest long term concern. It seems like a good bet that he would throw less interceptions in the final 8 games as opposed to the first 8 games. Peyton Manning threw 28 INTs his rookie year and then only threw more than 20 one other time in his career. 

Some things I would like to see from Sam the rest of the way in 2018:

1. He leads the Jets to a 9 win season.

2. He throws for over 4,000 yards. He would have to average 272 yards per game over the last 9 games. That is 51 yards per game more than his current average.

3. He cuts down on his interceptions. Hopefully he can end up no worse than somewhere around 25 TDs \ 20 INTs.

Is that too much too ask for?

I know that stats don't tell the whole story. Darnold is passing the eye test, he is good in the pocket and is reading the field better than any rookie QB the Jets have seen in a very long time.

What do you think?

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He is going to be very good.   

I don't think he'll get to 4000 yards this year and it probably would be a bad sign if he did, as it would likely mean we are not running the ball well.  I think he will cut down on the INTs in the second half of the season.  I would have expected his numbers to improve generally in the second half of the season as he gets more comfortable but with all the offensive injuries that might not happen.  I'm hoping he will develop a bit more consistency over the second half as he has been a bit on the feast or famine side of things, game by game.

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6 minutes ago, Bergen Jet said:

You are asking for a lot yardage wise, but I think it is definitely feasible.  I expect him to have 3800 yards, 26 TDS, 19 INTS at year end.

It is asking a lot. It is more of a wish, but I think is is possible. 50 yards more per game through the back 9 vs the first 7. Joe Namath is the only Jets QB to throw for over 4,000 yards in a single season.

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1 minute ago, Bruce Harper said:

He is going to be very good.   

I don't think he'll get to 4000 yards this year and it probably would be a bad sign if he did, as it would likely mean we are not running the ball well.  I think he will cut down on the INTs in the second half of the season.  I would have expected his numbers to improve generally in the second half of the season as he gets more comfortable but with all the offensive injuries that might not happen.  I'm hoping he will develop a bit more consistency over the second half as he has been a bit on the feast or famine side of things, game by game.

That is a very good point. Either not running or playing behind which means the defense slipped. Either one is not a good thing.

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Numbers lie 

if Herndon stretches another inch and Peake doesn’t let a ball bounce off his chest for a pick he has 11 TDs / 9 picks...

Hopefully Sam gets some better breaks in the second half of the year and the coaches can put him in easier positions. Most of his TDs are from like 20+ yards off 

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Just now, nico002 said:

Numbers lie 

if Herndon stretches another inch and Peake doesn’t let a ball bounce off his chest for a pick he has 11 TDs / 9 picks...

Hopefully Sam gets some better breaks in the second half of the year and the coaches can put him in easier positions. Most of his TDs are from like 20+ yards off 

Totally agree. This is definitely not the be all and end all. Just having some fun with the projections. If he didn't throw 3 INTs last week the projection would like much better. I think this stuff averages out over time. Which is why I think he will end up 20 plus on the TD side and under 20 with INTs.

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27 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Numbers lie 

if Herndon stretches another inch and Peake doesn’t let a ball bounce off his chest for a pick he has 11 TDs / 9 picks...

Hopefully Sam gets some better breaks in the second half of the year and the coaches can put him in easier positions. Most of his TDs are from like 20+ yards off 

While what you've said is true it's also worked the other way too.  Darnold has had more then a few sure INT's get dropped by DB's.  With that being siad though I'd say Danold's lived up to expectations of potential franchise QB .  The CS on the otherhand (Bates/Bowles specifically) has left a lot to be desired.  Bates has been underwhelming and while it's only been 7 games does make me wonder if we were better off keeping Morton.  

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Watching week to week progress is the most important thing, but if I can pick out for one thing to happen statistically, it would be for Darnold to finish with more TD's than INT's.

My prediction - 23 TD's, 19 INT's

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It is so difficult to judge him on this team.  He just lost his #1 RB (Crow may have been brought in as the #1 but Powell has been the starter since day 1) he lost Q for who knows how long, Pryor was let go, and that leaves Anderson really as the only pass catcher he really worked with consistently  from the beginning. It's nice that Herndon is coming on as an option but we need more than him, Anderson, Kearse, and the occasional Roberts to make any real judgement on what Sam could do. Jets need a legit WR for Sam to grow. That said I just hope he throws less than 20 picks. That will show he is making good reads. That will be more meaningful than anything. 

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Rookie DVOA:

Darnold 2018 -20%

Geno 2013 -23.6%

Sanchez 2009 -26.5%

So, better. I mean, one would hope. More:

Trubisky 2017 -16.8%

Watson 2017 23.1%

Goff 2016 -74.8%

Wentz 2016 -12%

Winston 2015 2.1%

Mariota 2015 -13.2%

Actual franchise quarterbacks are hard to find. Yeah, Mahomes and Goff are having great seasons and everything but the rest of the top ten DVOA is like Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Flacco, Brady, Rodgers, Ben, etc.

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

If I had a realistic "wish list" for Darnold the rest of the way I think I'd include...

1. More TDs than INTs over the remaining games.  Just improve the 1:1 ratio.

2. Lead the team to a 4th Quarter victory or two to show that there's hope the offense could one day be counted on to pull out a game (rather than having the D make a stop to close out a game)

3. Completion % of 60% or better over the final half of the season.

I think these are achievable for a QB that should have less rookie-itis in the second half of a season than the first.  I'd particularly expect better things after the Bye week.  Working against Sam is this mishmash of personnel around him, especially at WR.  Constantly changing personnel and a new WR like Matthews could lead to a lower completion percentage and possibly more INTs as they try to get familiar with each other.  We'll see.

I would really like to to win a cold weather game. Have it be 25 degrees for a December game and have him put up big numbers in a win.

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1 hour ago, Maxman said:

It is asking a lot. It is more of a wish, but I think is is possible. 50 yards more per game through the back 9 vs the first 7. Joe Namath is the only Jets QB to throw for over 4,000 yards in a single season.

And that was a 14 game season..:wacko: That's around 290 yds per game before all the rule changes in 1978

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2 minutes ago, Jet Fan RI said:

Actually, Sam just had a really bad game, which worsened his stats to date. I think he finishes with better than 60% completion rate and more TD's than INTS.

Sam has a good game and it's multivariate regression. Sam has a bad game and it's let's just make sh*t up.

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4 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If I had a realistic "wish list" for Darnold the rest of the way I think I'd include...

1. More TDs than INTs over the remaining games.  Just improve the 1:1 ratio.

2. Lead the team to a 4th Quarter victory or two to show that there's hope the offense could one day be counted on to pull out a game (rather than having the D make a stop to close out a game)

3. Completion % of 60% or better over the final half of the season.

I think these are achievable for a QB that should have less rookie-itis in the second half of a season than the first.  I'd particularly expect better things after the Bye week.  Working against Sam is this mishmash of personnel around him, especially at WR.  Constantly changing personnel and a new WR like Matthews could lead to a lower completion percentage and possibly more INTs as they try to get familiar with each other.  We'll see.

i'd go with that.  if he has to pass too much it means other parts of the team aren't functioning.  and given the state of the receivers and the iffy oline he's not going to improve his passer rating or even completion percent by passing.  he can control interceptions somewhat by making better throws and/or throwing the ball away or even eating it.

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4 hours ago, Maxman said:

We live in the fantasy football era. We all know that stats can be misleading and they certainly don't tell the entire story. That being said the Jets are 7 games into Sam Darnold's rookie year so we have seen a good glimpse of his potential. There is a lot to be happy about when you think about the long term possibilities. For now we wanted to look at where Sam Darnold sits today stat wise:

image.png

He is a rookie and with that comes a fair share of mistakes. 10 TDs and 10 INTs, not the worst we have seen from a Jets QB and certainly not the best. So let's take a look at how this all projects out over a full season. With 7 games played, the Jets are just under the mid way point of the season. So here is how his #'s project if he stays the same the rest of the way.

image.png

Not terrible for a rookie season. If nothing changes the number of interceptions would be the biggest long term concern. It seems like a good bet that he would throw less interceptions in the final 8 games as opposed to the first 8 games. Peyton Manning threw 28 INTs his rookie year and then only threw more than 20 one other time in his career. 

Some things I would like to see from Sam the rest of the way in 2018:

1. He leads the Jets to a 9 win season.

2. He throws for over 4,000 yards. He would have to average 272 yards per game over the last 9 games. That is 51 yards per game more than his current average.

3. He cuts down on his interceptions. Hopefully he can end up no worse than somewhere around 25 TDs \ 20 INTs.

Is that too much too ask for?

I know that stats don't tell the whole story. Darnold is passing the eye test, he is good in the pocket and is reading the field better than any rookie QB the Jets have seen in a very long time.

What do you think?

I think Darnold's performance has not been as erratic as it has seemed. Unlike the Fitpatrick tear where he had everything sort of fall his wall, it seems that Darnold has been almost an extreme victim of poorly timed penalties and drops.

Couple things I have noticed:

1. Darnold needs to get into a rhythm. The gameplan Sunday did not allow that. I would love to see more play action, slants, simple screens earlier in games, and I think early series in games in sort of Buffalo style hurry up would be good for him

2. I call Darnold "yo-yo". I have never seen a QB even a veteran that so obviously corrects the mistakes of the previous week. He is so good at it that he almost overcompensates for the mistakes he has made. He is on a continuous upward track but each week is sort of up and down as he makes these pretty dramatic adjustments which cause him to "yo-yo" up and down. I think that over time those peaks and valleys will be become smaller and smaller as the adjustments needed will become smaller too.

I think Darnold is special. I think his second half will be much better than the first half, and he will be a Top 10 QB performer by the end of the year.

I see his TD/INT ratio and completion %improving, but Bowles wont let him pass enough to get 4,000.

Even with that, I can see us floundering to 5 or 6 wins, and hopefully the Jets look to LA Rams as the model for the next step in his development.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Rookie DVOA:

Darnold 2018 -20%

Geno 2013 -23.6%

Sanchez 2009 -26.5%

So, better. I mean, one would hope. More:

Trubisky 2017 -16.8%

Watson 2017 23.1%

Goff 2016 -74.8%

Wentz 2016 -12%

Winston 2015 2.1%

Mariota 2015 -13.2%

Actual franchise quarterbacks are hard to find. Yeah, Mahomes and Goff are having great seasons and everything but the rest of the top ten DVOA is like Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Flacco, Brady, Rodgers, Ben, etc.

Statistics are really not capturing the actual level of his play on the field. He is better than his statistics, especially considering the lack of talent on offense. 

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1 hour ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Sam has a good game and it's multivariate regression. Sam has a bad game and it's let's just make sh*t up.

Not really calculating anything or making anything up. I just think he's better than his last game, and his stats will improve by season's end.

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The only fantasy I have is of a cam girl named Anya, but I will say that Sam Darnold will be great one day and one day soon. You could see in the PS already he had the QB intangibles needed, pocket presence, wherewithal to extend plays, good arm, humble kid wants to win, he is the whole package.

9 wins? LOL that is far fetched, this bunch will win maybe once, twice more this season... maybe...Due to injury and lack of depth, we are headed for the Todd Bowles 5-11 hat trick unfortunately, but the good news is , this may the last bad season we have for a long, long time :)

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