Le'Veon Bell, Yes Or No?

[Paradis]

1 minute ago, Jetster said:

Does anyone know any other bets this guy has made in the past that he was completely wrong on?

He’s pretty sure of himself, there has to many to cull from.

lol, mostly ppl don't bet me. I've won some, lost 1 to Bitonti about where lynch got drafted (ugh!) 

Seriously, what's a $25 bet? 

[Jetster]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

lol, mostly ppl don't bet me. I've won some, lost 1 to Bitonti about where lynch got drafted (ugh!) 

Seriously, what's a $25 bet? 

Plus I see your biggest Jet letdown was Favres year here? Bahahahahahahaha!!!!

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

lol, mostly ppl don't bet me. I've won some, lost 1 to Bitonti about where lynch got drafted (ugh!) 

Seriously, what's a $25 bet? 

same for me... won one, lost one...

but the lack of desire to pony up is weak...   i mean, discuss terms, agree on terms and its a bet? wtf is so hard about that?

[CTJetsFan]

I'm in the "no" camp.

Yes, he has been a very good back to this point. But with RBs, past performance isn't always indicative of future results.

Yeah, he'll be only 27, but when he has been healthy (has had issues), he has been used like a rented mule. Lots of mileage on those tires.

Has also had drug suspensions.

No sure he'll be as hungry after the big pay day (a la Mo Wilk).

While Gurley, Zeke & Barkley are top 1st round picks, guys like Conner, Hunt & Kamara show you can get 75-85% of Bell's production (1800-2100 combined yards best 3 years ) for a fraction of what he will cost per year going forward.

[bealeb319]

Dee Ford, and Le’Veon Bell. 
Draft OL. 
Sounds good. 

I think it is pretty obvious that if Mac stays we are signing dante fowler in free agency assuming the rams don't somehow get cap space and resign him first. Mac spent the majority of the season chasing this kid

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[Paradis]

10 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Plus I see your biggest Jet letdown was Favres year here? Bahahahahahahaha!!!!

huh? Is this part where you're angling for an e-argument? 

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, KRL said:

With the plan I outlined before our starting offense would be:

LT - #1 draft pick
LG - #3 draft pick
C -  Long
RG - Winters 
RT - Shell

TE - Herndon

WR - Enunwa, Funchess, Anderson

QB - Darnold

RB - Bell

You can't enter the draft with an agenda that just says "LT" in round 1. That's recipe for draft disaster. We might not get a LT in the draft. We have to be prepared for that possibility. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

This is an unfair label. 

That team slapped him with a franchise friendly tag for a 2nd year in a row.   The running back position is the most financially screwed of any in the league.  They are drafted, literally run into the ground on their rookie deal, then told they have too many miles on them to get paid when they are finally free from that rookie contract.   The team's view these days is, "we can just draft another one."

What if Bell signed his tender... than got hurt like Earl Thomas?  He gets his $9M for the tag... instead of the tens of millions he probably will get in April.

This team first narrative is unfair... ESPECIALLY for a running back.

The only argument against Bell is if you believe the Steelers offered him a reasonable market deal and he turned it down. 

The team franchised him, then gave him 400 touches.  Then they franchised him again and don't think they didn't mention the "mileage" when negotiating for a long term deal. They are scumbags looking to use him up.  He had 60 more touches than next highest back (McCoy) in 2017.  Demarco Murray in 2014 and CJ2K in 2009 were the only other players over 400 touches in a season on the decade.  **** the Steeler.  He is a player, not meat. 

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

 

Except that some of those 34 you penciled in - suck. Some will cut or replaced in some capacity. Each significant FA signing will take a big bite out of that money. People are naively looking at Bell as a 15 mil investment... that’s totally disregarding signing bonuses and upfront money. You want to spend a 1/4 of our FA play money on a back who didn’t play this year before we even sniff extensions and our Oline and pass rush?

Hell no in my books


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Um... signing bonuses do not cut into the cap, they spread it over additional years and spreading it out is what smart teams do.   Who exactly are you extending?  Jordan Jenkins and Williams are basically the only two candidates IMO. 

1 hour ago, Jetster said:

Let's see how many of these guys are actually available. It's not like the Jets are the only team with cap dollars. And because they are under 27 I wouldn't be shocked if every single one of them is resigned. Not some murderers row of eliteness in that group.

27 is the death knell, but 26 is great?  Anthony Barr is one ******* month younger than Bell.  He also has produced at a Lorenzo Mauldin level as a pass rusher - and I say that as someone who has been talking about targeting Barr for 2 years. 

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Great point.

John Connor's success could be hurting Bell's value in the upcoming FA period.  What if Bell finally comes back in a week or two and doesn't look quite as good as Connor has?  This could turn out to be a horrible miscalculation by Bell and his agents.

John Connor will lead the Resistance in the battle against SkyNet and our Robot Overlords.  James Conner is on the Steelers and, like Kamara, Kareem Hunt and D'Onta Foreman, went in the 3rd round of last year's draft.  We took ArDarius Stewart.

[Paradis]

John Connor will lead the Resistance in the battle against SkyNet and our Robot Overlords.  James Conner is on the Steelers and, like Kamara, Kareem Hunt and D'Onta Foreman, went in the 3rd raound of last year's draft.  We took ArDarius Stewart.

I’ll eat a pigs foot if he only counts against 15 million of cap money next year. It will be more.


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[RoadFan]

29 minutes ago, Paradis said:

A consensus amongst human beings that he did not live up to expectations. 

I am thinking about it.  While I am not "backing off" my stance... yours has better math.  Le'Veon Bell has been an all-pro.  The only possibilities are for him to match his production... or go down.  How could he possibility get better?   I am basically laying points here.  If he signs in a terrible spot like Miami, Buffalo, Oakland, or Tennessee... things might not go very well even if Bell is exactly the same player despite you trying to say he is some beaten down wreck.

He might wind up on a team that decides to keep him fresher than Pittsburgh, thus less touches. 

There has to be possibilty for a "push" on this bet?

[RoadFan]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

The team franchised him, then gave him 400 touches.  Then they franchised him again and don't think they didn't mention the "mileage" when negotiating for a long term deal. They are scumbags looking to use him up.  He had 60 more touches than next highest back (McCoy) in 2017.  Demarco Murray in 2014 and CJ2K in 2009 were the only other players over 400 touches in a season on the decade.  **** the Steeler.  He is a player, not meat. 

Um... signing bonuses do not cut into the cap, they spread it over additional years and spreading it out is what smart teams do.   Who exactly are you extending?  Jordan Jenkins and Williams are basically the only two candidates IMO. 

27 is the death knell, but 26 is great?  Anthony Barr is one ******* month younger than Bell.  He also has produced at a Lorenzo Mauldin level as a pass rusher - and I say that as someone who has been talking about targeting Barr for 2 years.

Nice to see another poster that sees this from Bell's perspective.

I am tired of the "he is so selfish and he left his teammates hanging!" tunnel vision narrative...

[Smashmouth]

7 hours ago, JiF said:

Yes.  100%.  If you cant draft them, buy them.  This team is unwatchable and gambling on Mac's drafting ability is one of the worst bets out there. 

Bell is Todd Gurley.  They're the same dude.  Do you think Jared Goff benefits from having Todd Gurley on his team? 

 

Agree 100 % ... Imagine if we Sign Bell and then draft/Add FA a real WR and solidify the OL through FA and the draft. I think the defense would benefit as well due to the fact we would actually be able to control the football enough on offense not to wear them out every game.

So if the Jets add Bell, a WR, get 2 Lineman, and maybe a proven pass rusher, this team could easily be transformed in 2019. While I'm not that Impressed with Macc's drafting he seems to do well adding players from other NFL teams which tells me he can identify talent but his scouting department sucks ass when it comes to evaluating college talent. No way Macc can evaluate all aspects of personnel and I'm sure he focuses on the pro side.

Also when it comes to Bells longevity when he hits 30 he can easily move to the slot since he already has the skills to be a dominant slot WR then all we do is draft another dynamic RB and keep the offense rolling. Of course all of this means nothing if we retain that Idiot Todd Bowles. We need an offensive minded coach and a real Defensive coordinator if we really want to evaluate our talent situation.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, RoadFan said:

All good thoughts on Le'V and Crow logistics.  I would really, really try to find a financial way to make it work.  Crow is the ideal complimentary power back for Bell.   Keep Bell fresh... and hammer with Crow who has shown the burst to bust the long ones to finish opponents.

Yeah but they're not Madden/FF players. They've got egos and it'll be a problem if Cro is only used sparingly to give Bell a blow here & there. He wants to be a primary carrier (or even 50/50 like with Powell, if he thinks it's only short term); look at the noise he made in Cleveland. 

We could make it fit, but they might be better off making an Ivory-level trade (~4th round). Look at it this way: if we already had Bell signed, and our high 2nd round pick was downgraded to a low 3rd and a mid-4th, would you be advocating trading that mid-4th to sign Crowell to a 2-year $8m deal? Probably not. 

[Jetster]

14 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

I’ll eat a pigs foot if he only counts against 15 million of cap money next year. It will be more.


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Sure went out on limb there, lol, my polish mother ate pigs feet all the time.

[Creepy Lurker]

8 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Sure went out on limb there, lol, my polish mother ate pigs feet all the time.

Rex Ryan eats feet too. 

[CTJetsFan]

Look at other backs in recent years that were used like Bell (McCoy, Forte, Murray). After about 7 years, production starts to drop off and injuries mount. That means maybe 2 or 3 good years of "bell cow RB" left for Bell. If you want to stretch that out, you make him rotate with another back like Crowell or McGuire. If you do that, is he still worth 15 million a year?

[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

How old are you? The best skill positions on offense I have seen were Freeman Mcneil, Wesley Walker and Al Toon.


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39. Those are the players of my childhood.  Those are the dudes that made me fall in love with the team.  I'd add Curtis to the mix too, obvi.

I believe Bell is better than them all. 

[JustInFudge]

19 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Agree 100 % ... Imagine if we Sign Bell and then draft/Add FA a real WR and solidify the OL through FA and the draft. I think the defense would benefit as well due to the fact we would actually be able to control the football enough on offense not to wear them out every game.

So if the Jets add Bell, a WR, get 2 Lineman, and maybe a proven pass rusher, this team could easily be transformed in 2019. While I'm not that Impressed with Macc's drafting he seems to do well adding players from other NFL teams which tells me he can identify talent but his scouting department sucks ass when it comes to evaluating college talent. No way Macc can evaluate all aspects of personnel and I'm sure he focuses on the pro side.

Also when it comes to Bells longevity when he hits 30 he can easily move to the slot since he already has the skills to be a dominant slot WR then all we do is draft another dynamic RB and keep the offense rolling. Of course all of this means nothing if we retain that Idiot Todd Bowles. We need an offensive minded coach and a real Defensive coordinator if we really want to evaluate our talent situation.

I think a lot of people in this thread are not realizing the kind of player that Bell is and what he can do for an offense.  Or they do and they're incorrectly thinking that it's super easy to find a player like him at cheaper cost.  And I get why @Paradis a lot of us loved Kamara (myself) and Hunt (Paradis) and many other dynamic backs that we've had the opportunity to draft.  So I think it's easy for us to be like, yo, this sh*t is easy...just take one of these guys.  Which I get.  But its like, what if you dont?  Because the odds are much higher that you dont, than you do.  And when you factor the Jets into that equation, those odds are even worse.

He's the most dangerous offensive player in the league when healthy...him and Gurley.  He's an all around back and WR wrapped into one player.  That's rare.  While we've seen a few of those guy enter the league recently, it's not that often a talent like Bell comes around.  

I've seen people mention mileage.  That's ridiculous.  He's had one season over 300 carries, last season and he only has 300 more carries than Gurley.  So basically, anyone concerned with that, wouldnt want Todd Gurley next offseason if he was available because of mileage.  Or another example; those same people wouldnt have resigned LT in 2006 when he ran for 1800 yards and 28 TD's and added 55 receptions and 3 Td's too because of mileage.  

If he would come to the Jets, it would be an absolute no brainer.

Darnold>Bell>FA/Draft WR/Anderson/Enunwa>Herndon - build a beast of an OL.

As critical as I've been of Mac, that's pretty dangerous and not far fetched with the money he has to spend and if he actually hit in the draft.

[Paradis]

As a true umbrella post to this whole topic, I don’t have a firm position on any this until we at least hit Feb... need to understand the FA market better, who got cut across the NFL, who’s getting tagged, who we extended etc. It’s too early to make any educated decisions


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[Paradis]

I am thinking about it.  While I am not "backing off" my stance... yours has better math.  Le'Veon Bell has been an all-pro.  The only possibilities are for him to match his production... or go down.  How could he possibility get better?   I am basically laying points here.  If he signs in a terrible spot like Miami, Buffalo, Oakland, or Tennessee... things might not go very well even if Bell is exactly the same player despite you trying to say he is some beaten down wreck. He might wind up on a team that decides to keep him fresher than Pittsburgh, thus less touches. 

There has to be possibilty for a "push" on this bet?

 

 

Of course. A push would be mixed results. Something that is probably quite likely.

 

I think in general we need to pick this up post January when the market has more clarity. It could turn out that free agents are so horrible that’ll find myself front and center of the Bell parade. Or vice versa.

 

 

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[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah but they're not Madden/FF players. They've got egos and it'll be a problem if Cro is only used sparingly to give Bell a blow here & there. He wants to be a primary carrier (or even 50/50 like with Powell, if he thinks it's only short term); look at the noise he made in Cleveland. 

We could make it fit, but they might be better off making an Ivory-level trade (~4th round). Look at it this way: if we already had Bell signed, and our high 2nd round pick was downgraded to a low 3rd and a mid-4th, would you be advocating trading that mid-4th to sign Crowell to a 2-year $8m deal? Probably not. 

 On the other hand when we give Crowell 10-15 carries Bell can line up in the slot which is what makes him so versatile. We can get very creative with the offense and I'm sure Bell would not balk if Crowell took some carries away if we wanted to get Bell more involved in the passing game it would certainly take some wear and tear off Bell which would prolong his career both players have a nose for the goal line and would be a huge handful for any defense in the red zone with both of them on the field. The Possibilities are endless and yes I would pay for that versatility

[RoadFan]

13 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

Of course. A push would be mixed results. Something that is probably quite likely.

 

I think in general we need to pick this up post January when the market has more clarity. It could turn out that free agents are so horrible that’ll find myself front and center of the Bell parade. Or vice versa.

 

 

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Fair enough...   we could both be right. Or both wrong...

[Smashmouth]

19 minutes ago, Paradis said:

As a true umbrella post to this whole topic, I don’t have a firm position on any this until we at least hit Feb... need to understand the FA market better, who got cut across the NFL, who’s getting tagged, who we extended etc. It’s too early to make any educated decisions


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ever wonder if David Johnson might become available via trade ? I might like that scenario even better

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

39. Those are the players of my childhood.  Those are the dudes that made me fall in love with the team.  I'd add Curtis to the mix too, obvi.

I believe Bell is better than them all. 

sneek Mickey Shuler in there as well

 

[sec101row23]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

You can't enter the draft with an agenda that just says "LT" in round 1. That's recipe for draft disaster. We might not get a LT in the draft. We have to be prepared for that possibility. 

Agreed.  No way in hell you can go into a draft and say “I need to get my starting LT and LG here”.  Never mind the fact of having to rely on two rookies for the left side of your line.  

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, bealeb319 said:

I think it is pretty obvious that if Mac stays we are signing dante fowler in free agency assuming the rams don't somehow get cap space and resign him first. Mac spent the majority of the season chasing this kid

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I think the only thing that’s “obvious” is that we NEED a pass rusher. That Macc pursued the best of what’s available tells me that Dee Ford, an UFA is definitely worth a looksie.

[#27TheDominator]

6 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

ever wonder if David Johnson might become available via trade ? I might like that scenario even better

David Johnson?  The one that hasn't had a decent year since 2016?  The one barely averaging 3 ypc?  He is older than Bell, and is signed for big money.  More importantly, he just signed and I think the cap hit might be prohibitive for the Cards to move him.  That would accelerate his bonus, 

[bealeb319]

I think the only thing that’s “obvious” is that we NEED a pass rusher. That Macc pursued the best of what’s available tells me that Dee Ford, an UFA is definitely worth a looksie.

I never said he wasn't worth a look or that macc wouldn't take one just think that it is pretty clear he likes fowler a good bit and will go after him if he can.

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[Better2bgreenthanblue]

Dear lord, let's stop sending Darnold to the shootout with a letter opener. We need weapons. Bell is likely an elite dual purpose weapon for the next 2-3 years.

 

[jack48]

2 hours ago, Jetster said:

When is the last time Pitt beat the Pats? 

Duh.  Next you will say that Pitt is not a superior organization to your NYJ

[jack48]

2 hours ago, Jetster said:

Oh, but let’s give 17 mill to Mo Wilkerson

That was also a mistake

[jack48]

2 hours ago, Scoop24 said:

Trumaine Johnson has been on decline consistently for the past 3 years . Dude hasn’t been close to elite he was just the best of bad group . Unfortunately he is still declining . 

bad on Macc

[jack48]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

 

15? Try north of 20 when you include all the upfront money. You're legitimately looking at possibly 20%+ of our FA money, tied up at RB before you even sniff an extension or trying to improve the rest of the team, of which we need to accumulate about 25-30 players....  (25%+ over our overall cap then will tied to RBs)..

 

and an RB takes a fairly violent hit every time he runs it

[BrickTamland]

2 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Agree 100 % ... Imagine if we Sign Bell and then draft/Add FA a real WR and solidify the OL through FA and the draft. I think the defense would benefit as well due to the fact we would actually be able to control the football enough on offense not to wear them out every game.

So if the Jets add Bell, a WR, get 2 Lineman, and maybe a proven pass rusher, this team could easily be transformed in 2019. While I'm not that Impressed with Macc's drafting he seems to do well adding players from other NFL teams which tells me he can identify talent but his scouting department sucks ass when it comes to evaluating college talent. No way Macc can evaluate all aspects of personnel and I'm sure he focuses on the pro side.

Also when it comes to Bells longevity when he hits 30 he can easily move to the slot since he already has the skills to be a dominant slot WR then all we do is draft another dynamic RB and keep the offense rolling. Of course all of this means nothing if we retain that Idiot Todd Bowles. We need an offensive minded coach and a real Defensive coordinator if we really want to evaluate our talent situation.

Said this more or less in the 29 players under contract thread. Team is not in horrible shape. It all comes down to about 5 decisions this offseason

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

David Johnson?  The one that hasn't had a decent year since 2016?  The one barely averaging 3 ypc?  He is older than Bell, and is signed for big money.  More importantly, he just signed and I think the cap hit might be prohibitive for the Cards to move him.  That would accelerate his bonus, 

First of all Johnson is 26 so he's not older than Bell hes a year younger

Second he had an amazing year in 2016 with 1250 yards rushing and 80 catches for 800 + yards. In 17 he broke his wrist and missed the season, he has much less wear and tear on his body and he plays for a team in which he's the only real skill player on the team so teams key on him not giving him much of a chance to do anything. If the contract is prohibitive fine thats one argument you have on your side but the guy is a fantastic player who was right up there with Bell when healthy. Even with whats going on this year his career average is still 4.1 per rush and his main deal just like Bell is his receiving ability. In the end will his contract be as prohibitive as Bell's ? Does he smoke Dope ? Is he a trouble maker ? You can make the case hes more Attractive solution than Bell in the right situation