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Darnold in a walking boot. Not practicing.


Joe W. Namath

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

It's pretty funny that I was probably the loudest person in the room last year against the wait for next year/suck for sam crowd and now I think me and nico are his biggest supporters. haha

I still believe in Sam, yeah, he's careless with the ball and had a couple of ugly games but I like what I see otherwise.  He's got some magic in him that you cant coach.  The Jets are more than likely to ruin him because Jets but if by chance they happened to stumble upon some competency, I think you can build a champion around Sam.

 

That's because you are incredibly brilliant, likely very handsome as well.

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19 minutes ago, JiF said:

This offense is so bad at every single position, I think there is a strong argument that Darnold has pulled off minor miracles making this offense look competent/potent in multiple games.  

Oh? Nah.. its not fundamentally different than lady year which was way more productive 

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

It's pretty funny that I was probably the loudest person in the room last year against the wait for next year/suck for sam crowd and now I think me and nico are his biggest supporters. haha

I still believe in Sam, yeah, he's careless with the ball and had a couple of ugly games but I like what I see otherwise.  He's got some magic in him that you cant coach.  The Jets are more than likely to ruin him because Jets but if by chance they happened to stumble upon some competency, I think you can build a champion around Sam.

 

I had to fist fight people to be able to keep this place in line. So did all the moderators. But keep patting yourself on the back.  :)

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15 minutes ago, JetsYanks13 said:


Comparing stats is simple. A bright guy like yourself should not need help with it. If you do need help, then you can receive it from your local junior high school teacher. Great job avoiding the Manning question.


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Sorry genius, but the Manning question is the one I asked YOU to explain. While you're looking up QBs who had HOF careers after bad rookie seasons, can you also list all the 1st round busts who also had bad rookie years? I'm curious which list is longer. Thanks in advance.

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Sorry genius, but the Manning question is the one I asked YOU to explain. While you're looking up QBs who had HOF careers after bad rookie seasons, can you also list all the 1st round busts who also had bad rookie years? I'm curious which list is longer. Thanks in advance.

Once again, factual evidence:

Since 2010: 21 qb’s 1st round- 13 excelled,
8 are busts. This is a sample size of the last bunch of years. Your wrong.


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10 minutes ago, JetsYanks13 said:


Once again, factual evidence:

Since 2010: 21 qb’s 1st round- 13 excelled,
8 are busts. This is a sample size of the last bunch of years. Your wrong.


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You keep changing the argument! I asked about guys bouncing back from BAD ROOKIE YEARS!!!! But,Ok, I'll bite. Give me the 13 who excelled. Just don't give me any Winstons, Mariotas, Bortles and Tannehills….

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Sorry genius, but the Manning question is the one I asked YOU to explain. While you're looking up QBs who had HOF careers after bad rookie seasons, can you also list all the 1st round busts who also had bad rookie years? I'm curious which list is longer. Thanks in advance.

Explain why the manning brothers had terrible rookie seasons for such great players. Their stats are similar to darnolds. Why? Give me factual and tangible evidence. Why did jarred goff suck his rookie season?


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It's fraud. I'm not buying it. When did he get hurt? I don't recall him getting hurt in Sunday's game. I think the Jets came up with this idea just so they can bench him off the record, evading any criticism from the media and fans...maybe even some of their players.  

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Ok, I'll bite. Give me the 13 who excelled. Just don't give me any Winstons, Mariotas, Bortles and Tannehills….

Answer my question about the manning brothers stats their rookie years compared to darnold. Why did they struggle their rookie years, yet won 2 Super Bowls each. Why? Great players should not struggle their rookie seasons according to you. Why did they not excel their rookie years and win a bunch of games?


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14 minutes ago, JetsYanks13 said:


Explain why the manning brothers had terrible rookie seasons for such great players. Their stats are similar to darnolds. Why? Give me factual and tangible evidence. Why did jarred goff suck his rookie season?


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What do the Mannings have to do with Sam???? For the LAST F***ING time... PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW SAM HAVING A BAD ROOKIE YEAR GUARANTEES HIM BOUNCING BACK TO HAVE A GREAT CAREER LIKE THE MANNINGS?????

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For the LAST F***ING time... PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW HAVING A BAD ROOKIE YEAR GUARANTEES HIM BOUNCING BACK TO HAVE A GREAT CAREER?????

I never guaranteed he will have a great career. Never said that. Read what I said- HE IS A 21 YEAR OLD ROOKIE QB. HE WILL HAVE UPS AND DOWNS THROUGHOUT HIS ROOKIE SEASON. ITS A LEARNING PROCESS FOR ROOKIE QB’s TO HAVE GROWING PAINS! There are exception to the rules such as elway and Marino. That’s what I said. Once again, I’m asking you- why did the manning brothers have terrible rookie seasons and win 2 Super Bowls a piece. Their rookie numbers are similar to darnold. Why did they not excel and win more games their rookie seasons?


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2 minutes ago, JetsYanks13 said:


I never guaranteed he will have a great career. Never said that. Read what I said- HE IS A 21 YEAR OLD ROOKIE QB. HE WILL HAVE UPS AND DOWNS THROUGHOUT HIS ROOKIE SEASON. ITS A LEARNING PROCESS FOR ROOKIE QB’s TO HAVE GROWING PAINS! There are exception to the rules such as elway and Marino. That’s what I said. Once again, I’m asking you- why did the manning brothers have terrible rookie seasons and win 2 Super Bowls a piece. Their rookie numbers are similar to darnold. Why did they not excel and win more games their rookie seasons?


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The obvious answer is they needed NFL experience. In Eli's case, less then 1/2 a season. He won a Division title his first full season. However, you're using their rookie seasons as proof that Sam's struggles mean nothing, and that Darnold will have a great career, because other great QBs have had poor rookie seasons. I said, and keep saying, there have been plenty more QBs who had bad rookie seasons and never amounted to anything. That's it for me. I'm done. All we're doing is going in circles here.

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1 hour ago, HelenOfTroy said:

Hope wifey has hidden all the knives, guns and ropes.

Not to be mushy, but she's the only reason my life is together and meaningful.  Hopefully one day I can make that girl my actual "wifey".  

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The obvious answer is they needed NFL experience. In Eli's case, less then 1/2 a season. He won a Division title his first full season. However, you're using their rookie seasons as proof that Sam's struggles mean nothing, and that Darnold will have a great career, because other great QBs have had poor rookie seasons. I said, and keep saying, there have been plenty more QBs who had bad rookie seasons and never amounted to anything. That's it for me. I'm done. All we're doing is going in circles here.

Exactly, and darnold needs nfl experience just like the manning brothers which you just admitted. I used the stats to show you and all Jets fans that even QB’s with super bowl pedigree struggle their rookie seasons. There are exceptions to the rule such as Marino and elway. Sam has struggled and excelled throughout his 9 games and this is true. This is part of the learning process that all rookies go through including Sam. He will have ups and downs. His struggles are relevant because it’s part of his development and learning. He has made tons of mistakes and probably will continue to do so. Once again, the rookie curve. But, to rip the guy after 9 games is unfair and unrealistic. If that were the norm, ALMOST each team would have a new QB each season. Of course, there are plenty of rookie QB’s who busted or never amounted to anything, but the jets drafted him 3rd overall and the kid needs time to develop in order to excel. That’s just NFL REALITY! I don’t know if Sam will have a great career, but as A DIE HARD JETS FAN, I’m sure as hell rooting for him to have a better career than Tom Brady. I want instant success for this team as you do, but I understand it will take this season and maybe next to get this kid playing on a high level, but I’m on board.

Thank you for proving my point in your first sentence: The manning brothers needed NFL experience before they could excel and become better QB’s. Sam is no different and needs the same nfl experience to improve his game.




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14 minutes ago, JetsYanks13 said:




Thank you for proving my point in your first sentence: The manning brothers needed NFL experience before they could excel and become better QB’s. Sam is no different and needs the same nfl experience to improve his game.




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Before you go to bed thinking you're Clarence Darrow, cherry picking QBs who struggled their rookie years and then excelled doesn't prove any point at all. Saying "Sam is no different" because he's also a rookie is nonsense. Whether or not he ends up succeeding has nothing to do with what Eli or Peyton did. The same way Ryan Leaf busting after a bad rookie year, despite being rated as highly as Peyton has nothing to do with Sam. The only thing that will make or break Sam's career is the talent Sam has and how much of it his coaches can bring out of him. Again, there have been way more rookie QBs who've struggled their first year and never amounted to anything then there are who overcame those struggles to have Manning-like careers. 

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9 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I don't give a flying f*ck what some stupid database that nobody gives a sh*t about says.  I'm anything but optimistic right now, but I'm not gonna sit here and  pretend that Darnold was on par with a guy like Mason Rudolph.  If Darnold sucks, it's because he sucks and never improved; not because some number crunching nerds guessed that a guy who had a 50/50 shot of making it, may fail.

Those stupid nerds have been trying to peddle this "analyticz in f00tball" garbage for years.  It doesn't work.  It will never work.  This isn't baseball and Qbase is f*cking stupid, and I'm saying that as a massive critic of Darnold right now.

If you're gonna respond with that, PFF, and every other number crunching fraud of a database, don't bother responding.  I don't care and won't answer.

Sorry, I believe them over some nut on a jets message board.

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16 hours ago, Butterfield said:

Sorry, I believe them over some nut on a jets message board.

Cool?  You do you boo boo.  Call me a nut, I don't care.

tenor (4).gif

 

 

Anyway...back on topic...

 

You know what?  I deleted the a**mad rant I made yesterday because I realize how stupid I looked @CTM.  I'm sorry for snapping at you. Seriously, I apologize.  Im gonna clear up a bunch  stuff I said yesterday because I was so tilted, I lost my damn mind.

You challenged me to find some big losers on QBase that would help back up my extremely negative opinion of them, and I did.  You know who else they didn't love (in both cases, even less than Darnold)?  

Screenshot_20181109-215026.png

 

Screenshot_20181109-214630.png

You want to know a big reason why they dinged Carson Wentz, Deshaun, and Sam so hard?  They mentioned in Sam's projections that their system subtracts heavily for 2 year starters, which is why he, and those others, were hit so hard in their grades, even mentioning that his future "revised grade" might look better as Cam Newton, Deshaun, and Carson's careers continue and the data on 2 year guys looks more positive.  Mitchell Trubisky is another guy, with a grade similar to Sam, that may buck that trend too.  Other big and noticeable "losers" in their grades include: Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Andy Dalton.  When discussing 2 guys who ended up being bad and comparing where QBase ranked them, their system put Hackenberg above Sanchez.  

I was asked to find some big winners too.  Some eye raising and noticeable ones included: Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, John Beck, Christian Ponder, RGIII (above Luck FWIW, since that was the last really big "which QB at #1?" debate) Cade McNown (who?), Geno Smith, Danny Wuerffel, Jay Cutler, and Kevin Kolb.

Look.  I give them credit for trying to find a better way.  Without blind rage flying in my brain, I can respect putting yourself out there. That being said, my more level headed opinion is that the QB position is a totally different beast.  It's too volatile and there are too many different factors, which can't be accurately measured by raw numbers, that come into play.  Sure, their list of winners, for the most part, is full of guys who ended up being successful.  That being said, a ton of those winners were guys that almost all scouts agreed were top tier prospects based off of tape.  There were very little "surprises" in their top guys.  RG3 and Leinart were the only super noticeable "we both screwed up big time on him" players.  However, guys like Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, and Drew Brees being absolutely slaughtered by their lists puts a gigantic dent in their credibility.  Especially when the rationale for 2 of those 3 guys is, "we don't care all that much about the tape in our lists, a 2 year starter is getting crushed by our numbers".  They even mention that, although Sam's overall grade was low, it was heavily affected by the 2 year penalty, and that the biggest thing that they took away from him is that he played a harder schedule than any of the other prospects, and played, for the most part, pretty damn well in 2017 with all of that context, but he's still getting a "lower" grade for coming out before his 3rd season.  It was brought up that he was graded below Josh Rosen.  Guess why?  Rosen wasn't dinged by the "years started" because, despite being injured after 6 games in his sophomore year, he is technically logged in as a 3 year starter. 

Guess how many games Rosen, ultimately, played when it was all said and done for him at UCLA?  30. 

Sam at USC?  27. 

Point I'm making here?  This is a huge flaw in the QBASE system.  Especially with more and more guys coming out after only 2 years, as of late.

The one thing I think they seem to have improved, is determining who the "diamonds in the rough" can be.  Guys like Russell Wilson and Mahomes were big time guys by their measure.

With all of this being said, Sam was a great prospect in most peoples eyes.  One analytical database disagreeing with everyone and everything (since PFF loved Sam, after Baker), doesn't change that. Especially when they are just as flawed as the others, if not more.  Matt Ryan was a guy I likened Sam to as a pro prospect and, as I said before, QBASE hated him as well.  They were both turnover heavy QB prospects, carrying teams led by horrendous coaching and college talent.  When they both left their respective programs, the schools fell apart because they weren't there to cover up the major flaws anymore.  Analytics can't put that sort of thing into numbers.  Now, he may never become Matt Ryan.  That's not a given.  He could, just as easily, bust.  He absolutely deserves some blame for the personal struggles of his rookie year.  That being said, I believe that he stands a good chance of overcoming this, as long as we put the proper guys around him, talent and coaching wise.  He has the right attitude mixed with insane talent and great football IQ.  Despite my tirade from yesterday, I do, deep down, still believe we have "our guy".  We just need to do what the Rams and Bears did for their inconsistent rookies.  Get him real weapons and a guy who believes in playing 21st century football as his HC.

CC: @JiF, @Paradis (I'm sorry for bumming you out so hard homie), @JetsYanks13, @The Crusher, @nico002, & @HelenOfTroy (I'm curious as to what your take on my Matt Ryan comp is), since you all put up with my hardcore sass yesterday. 

TL,DR:

Sorry.  I took my Lexapro.

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@Mogglez I'm away for the weekend so I cant respond thoroughly. I was drinking and antagonizing you a bit last night. No apologies necessary, wish I saw the rant lol

Quickly, no system is perfect. Citing a handful of misses doesnt change my POV.  Qbase does a lot better job than NFL GMs and the Mel Kipers of the world, the fact that guys like Josh Allen or Christian Hackenberg get drafted early is proof enough of that.

So a poor Qbase doesnt condemn Darnold to failure (thier projections are stated as %'s after all), but it is enough evidence to counter the idea that Darnold was some generational type prospect. It's true he was talked about as one after the frosh rose bowl, but instead of upping his game, he turned it over 1.5 times a game as a soph.

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10 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Cool?  You do you boo boo.  Call me a nut, I don't care.

tenor (4).gif

 

 

Anyway...back on topic...

 

You know what?  I deleted the a**mad rant I made yesterday because I realize how stupid I looked @CTM.  I'm sorry for snapping at you. Seriously, I apologize.  Im gonna clear up a bunch  stuff I said yesterday because I was so tilted, I lost my damn mind.

You challenged me to find some big losers on QBase that would help back up my extremely negative opinion of them, and I did.  You know who else they didn't love (in both cases, even less than Darnold)?  

Screenshot_20181109-215026.png

 

Screenshot_20181109-214630.png

You want to know a big reason why they dinged Carson Wentz, Deshaun, and Sam so hard?  They mentioned in Sam's projections that their system subtracts heavily for 2 year starters, which is why he, and those others, were hit so hard in their grades, even mentioning that his future "revised grade" might look better as Cam Newton, Deshaun, and Carson's careers continue and the data on 2 year guys looks more positive.  Mitchell Trubisky is another guy, with a grade similar to Sam, that may buck that trend too.  Other big and noticeable "losers" in their grades include: Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Andy Dalton.  When discussing 2 guys who ended up being bad and comparing where QBase ranked them, their system put Hackenberg above Sanchez.  

I was asked to find some big winners too.  Some eye raising and noticeable ones included: Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, John Beck, Christian Ponder, RGIII (above Luck FWIW, since that was the last really big "which QB at #1?" debate) Cade McNown (who?), Geno Smith, Danny Wuerffel, Jay Cutler, and Kevin Kolb.

Look.  I give them credit for trying to find a better way.  Without blind rage flying in my brain, I can respect putting yourself out there. That being said, my more level headed opinion is that the QB position is a totally different beast.  It's too volatile and there are too many different factors, which can't be accurately measured by raw numbers, that come into play.  Sure, their list of winners, for the most part, is full of guys who ended up being successful.  That being said, a ton of those winners were guys that almost all scouts agreed were top tier prospects based off of tape.  There were very little "surprises" in their top guys.  RG3 and Leinart were the only super noticeable "we both screwed up big time on him" players.  However, guys like Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, and Drew Brees being absolutely slaughtered by their lists puts a gigantic dent in their credibility.  Especially when the rationale for 2 of those 3 guys is, "we don't care all that much about the tape in our lists, a 2 year starter is getting crushed by our numbers".  They even mention that, although Sam's overall grade was low, it was heavily affected by the 2 year penalty, and that the biggest thing that they took away from him is that he played a harder schedule than any of the other prospects, and played, for the most part, pretty damn well in 2017 with all of that context, but he's still getting a "lower" grade for coming out before his 3rd season.  It was brought up that he was graded below Josh Rosen.  Guess why?  Rosen wasn't dinged by the "years started" because, despite being injured after 6 games in his sophomore year, he is technically logged in as a 3 year starter. 

Guess how many games Rosen, ultimately, played when it was all said and done for him at UCLA?  30. 

Sam at USC?  27. 

Point I'm making here?  This is a huge flaw in the QBASE system.  Especially with more and more guys coming out after only 2 years, as of late.

The one thing I think they seem to have improved, is determining who the "diamonds in the rough" can be.  Guys like Russell Wilson and Mahomes were big time guys by their measure.

With all of this being said, Sam was a great prospect in most peoples eyes.  One analytical database disagreeing with everyone and everything (since PFF loved Sam, after Baker), doesn't change that. Especially when they are just as flawed as the others, if not more.  Matt Ryan was a guy I likened Sam to as a pro prospect and, as I said before, QBASE hated him as well.  They were both turnover heavy QB prospects, carrying teams led by horrendous coaching and college talent.  When they both left their respective programs, the schools fell apart because they weren't there to cover up the major flaws anymore.  Analytics can't put that sort of thing into numbers.  Now, he may never become Matt Ryan.  That's not a given.  He could, just as easily, bust.  He absolutely deserves some blame for the personal struggles of his rookie year.  That being said, I believe that he stands a good chance of overcoming this, as long as we put the proper guys around him, talent and coaching wise.  He has the right attitude mixed with insane talent and great football IQ.  Despite my tirade from yesterday, I do, deep down, still believe we have "our guy".  We just need to do what the Rams and Bears did for their inconsistent rookies.  Get him real weapons and a guy who believes in playing 21st century football as his HC.

CC: @JiF, @Paradis (I'm sorry for bumming you out so hard homie), @JetsYanks13, @The Crusher, @nico002, & @HelenOfTroy (I'm curious as to what your take on my Matt Ryan comp is), since you all put up with my hardcore sass yesterday. 

TL,DR:

Sorry.  I took my Lexapro.

 

7 hours ago, CTM said:

@Mogglez I'm away for the weekend so I cant respond thoroughly. I was drinking and antagonizing you a bit last night. No apologies necessary, wish I saw the rant lol

Quickly, no system is perfect. Citing a handful of misses doesnt change my POV.  Qbase does a lot better job than NFL GMs and the Mel Kipers of the world, the fact that guys like Josh Allen or Christian Hackenberg get drafted early is proof enough of that.

So a poor Qbase doesnt condemn Darnold to failure (thier projections are stated as %'s after all), but it is enough evidence to counter the idea that Darnold was some generational type prospect. It's true he was talked about as one after the frosh rose bowl, but instead of upping his game, he turned it over 1.5 times a game as a soph.

The ginger devils is making us turn on one another. McCown is basically solidarity and stuff.

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Mogglez, that was a great post first and foremost. I think 2 year college qb’s are ranked lower is because guys rookie nfl seasons can make or break them. They probably think the extra year in college will prepare them much better than being deflated 1 year into their rookie year. That’s why I think there’s more to these rookie qb’s than there numbers. It’s also about their mental makeup, the team around them and the coaching they receive. As I proved with stats, rookie qb’s generally struggle and have ups and downs throughout a season. The manning brothers were no exception to the rule and as another poster mentioned they needed nfl experience to succeed moving forward. Sam is no different as any other highly drafted rookie qb. He needs time, good coaching and players around him to succeed in the future. Will he? No one can concretely say yes or no, but he needs to learn from his mistakes and good plays and apply it to next season and beyond. As a die hard JETS FAN, I’m rooting as heck that he will have a better career than Tom Brady. Anyone who feels otherwise is simply not a JETS FAN. Moving forward, sam must improve his game, the team must find a bright offensive coach and draft/sign pieces to put around him including offensive line. As far as the draft, you just don’t know at times. Look at Brady, exception to the rule, and he was picked 199th. I think some fans have unrealistic expectations and expect this kid to be drew brees week in and out and that’s not realistic.


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@Mogglez  I cannot give an opinion on Ryan, if I’ve seen a combined 30 minutes watching him play, or even highlights, that would be a generous estimate.  I only watch NFL highlights if one of our players are involved, and this is the only NFL site in which I participate and enjoy.  

All I can contribute is some insight into our program, and the impact Sam and other players (if asked), past and present, had on the program, on and off the field.

I don’t pay much attention to analytics or opinions by so-called experts, even fans.  Football is a game of passion, intangibles and the right team of players that work together with the right coaches.  If even one person knew a damn about what they were talking about with certainty, he’d be a billionaire because every franchise in the NFL would be throwing $$$ at his (or her) feet.

In sum, my favorite tweet by a undervalued player came from JuJu his rookie season,  when he tweeted a video of his first long TD run (80 yds?) quoting every negative from scouting reports while demonstrating the opposite skills on the field. So much for scouting and expert opinions.  This happens over and over and over.

 

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