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Le'Veon Bell ineligible to Return in 2018 After Failing to Report to Steelers


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16 hours ago, Beerfish said:

So now in any of his future deals you have to factor in the 14.5 million he lost by sitting out.  If he plays 7 more years which is very optimistic for a RB you have to deduct 2 million a year from whatever he earns.  He will never get that money back and if anything the fact that Connor steps in and they do not miss a beat should hurt his value.

Yes and no.

If he got badly injured this year Pittsburgh then he'd have earned $14.5m and nothing more. The contract they offered him reportedly had little or no full guarantees past the 2018 season. 

It's a matter of weighing risk vs reward, and in such an injury-prone position (and with Bell not being immune to injuries himself) he may have done the right thing. Truth is we'll never know because you don't get to replay exactly what would have happened if he'd played out the year (and the next 2 after that) under the contract they offered or under the tag.

With so many teams having so much cap room, there's a good chance he made the right financial decision. If he gets $40-50m guaranteed he'd have only made that if he kept putting up elite #s for 3 years with Pittsburgh. No slowdown, no injuries.

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26 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'd normally be dead set against giving a RB a second contract but Bell isnt just any old RB.  He's one of the my dynamic players I've ever seen.  He can do it all and that is so valuable to an offense and a young QB it's worth the price tag IMO. 

We have one of, if not the least talented rosters in Football especially on offense.  Passing on an elite. arguably top 10 player in this league just doesnt make sense to me.  I know we all want to draft these guys but this is the Jets we're talking about, we'd be searching for that guy for the rest of our lives.  And you cant put a price tag on Sam Darnold's development.  

You have a 100 mil to spend.  Spend it on the guy who is best served to help you young QB and that guy is Bell. 

I love it when your Alpha is showing. 

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49 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

This smells of the Wilkerson sign and snooze fiasco.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Unless we can somehow sign elite Lineman/edge rushers, the best player we can probably bring in is Bell and we have the cap space to absorb it. But signing Bell comes with great risk. His age for a RB is a problem and his desire to win is a problem. He had a chance to win a Super Bowl this year, while being the highest paid RB and he chose to play Xbox. 

Part of me is rooting for the Jets to sign him and part of me is rooting for Bell to get a worse deal than the Steelers offered and look like a fool. 

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18 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yes and no.

If he got badly injured this year Pittsburgh then he'd have earned $14.5m and nothing more. The contract they offered him reportedly had little or no full guarantees past the 2018 season. 

It's a matter of weighing risk vs reward, and in such an injury-prone position (and with Bell not being immune to injuries himself) he may have done the right thing. Truth is we'll never know because you don't get to replay exactly what would have happened if he'd played out the year (and the next 2 after that) under the contract they offered or under the tag.

With so many teams having so much cap room, there's a good chance he made the right financial decision. If he gets $40-50m guaranteed he'd have only made that if he kept putting up elite #s for 3 years with Pittsburgh. No slowdown, no injuries.

He is projecting a run of good years for the team he signs with, I am projecting he does not get injured.  The fact is he is making ZERO dollars this year.  Are you thinking a team will give him a fully guaranteed contract against injury?

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35 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'd normally be dead set against giving a RB a second contract but Bell isnt just any old RB.  He's one of the my dynamic players I've ever seen.  He can do it all and that is so valuable to an offense and a young QB it's worth the price tag IMO. 

We have one of, if not the least talented rosters in Football especially on offense.  Passing on an elite. arguably top 10 player in this league just doesnt make sense to me.  I know we all want to draft these guys but this is the Jets we're talking about, we'd be searching for that guy for the rest of our lives.  And you cant put a price tag on Sam Darnold's development.  

You have a 100 mil to spend.  Spend it on the guy who is best served to help you young QB and that guy is Bell. 

I was 100% against trading for the guy and would prefer we spend on O-line and pass rush this offseason. However, with how terrible free agency is looking for o-line, we have to spend our money somehow and I’d be for this for the simple fact that we have to spend our money and fill holes.

We should be able to get 3 year out of him and can pair him with Crowell who is being paid like a #2 anyways. We have to give Sam as many weapons as possible and can’t keep waiting. This free agency period is going to be absolutely terrible.

I’m done waiting and if you haven’t noticed, no teams are in cap hell anymore and our horrible drafting ensures that we will have plenty of space in upcoming years since we won’t be resigning our own rookies. It’s time to be aggressive for Sam to have a shot. O-line is our biggest issue but fill every other hole possible in FA. 

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On the surface, Pittsburgh's looking more like a RB kingmaker than being the product of Bell. People were claiming Bell was the straw that stirred that drink. It's sure not looking like that.

  • These past 5 weeks without him they're averaging 35 ppg.
  • Through 9 games Conner has 1158 total yards and 11 TDs, already matching Bell's career high in TDs in any full season.
  • He's averaging 4.7ypc without a couple of ultra-long runs skewing that figure (his longest single run of the year is just 30 yards). 

On paper, at least so far, they're not missing Bell at all. Plus they can spend that $ to shore up other position(s) in 2019+. 

We'll see. So far this year, more than 1/3 of Conner's production (400 yds and 4 TDs) came in the 2 matchups vs the Browns alone. Then another 300+ yds and 4 TDs in the 2 Falcons and Bengals games. These aren't exactly the league's 3 stingiest rush defenses and he's put up 700 yds and 8 TDs in those 4 games; meanwhile 400 total yds and 3 TDs in the other 5 (including major stinkers in the Baltimore and KC losses, plus his fumble and inability to get past the sticks & run the clock let Cleveland back in the game week 1).

Now it's not right to just delete just the easiest stat games unless doing that for every RB, but it's something to note when we have only such a small sample thus far. Will he hit a wall in December after 200+ carries? Will he get constant nagging injuries in the upcoming months/years? Will he be a playoffs choker? Will he be a big winner? We honestly don't know yet. 

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39 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'd normally be dead set against giving a RB a second contract but Bell isnt just any old RB.  He's one of the my dynamic players I've ever seen.  He can do it all and that is so valuable to an offense and a young QB it's worth the price tag IMO. 

We have one of, if not the least talented rosters in Football especially on offense.  Passing on an elite. arguably top 10 player in this league just doesnt make sense to me.  I know we all want to draft these guys but this is the Jets we're talking about, we'd be searching for that guy for the rest of our lives.  And you cant put a price tag on Sam Darnold's development.  

You have a 100 mil to spend.  Spend it on the guy who is best served to help you young QB and that guy is Bell. 

Typically I'd say no as well. Depends how Darnold looks the rest of the way (and especially depends if they bring Macc back). If he looks panicked through December, and if Macc is still the GM, I could get behind it.

My reasoning is Macc's going to piss that same money away anyhow, on 4 year contracts with 2 guaranteed years, for a 1 year bandaid that gets him another extension.

We're not winning a SB in 2019. By 2020 we'll be regretting probably all but 1 of Macc's 2019 veteran signings anyhow. We won't even be real contenders in 2019, even though I do expect a big win-improvement that'll get overstated like 2015. So through it all, the only thing that matters will be Darnold developing because his tenure here should outlive Macc and the next stupid HC Woody/Chris/Macc hire. It's just a shame we won't be able to take serious advantage of his cheaper rookie contract years because of our FO+coaching ineptitude.

If paying a ransom to Bell furthers that, then because of the above I might be on board even with 2.5 guaranteed seasons I'd never otherwise agree to, because I don't think he'll be worth year 3. For the next 2 years? He's a special player and Crowell just isn't. Cro's showing firsthand how a player can average nearly 5 ypc and still mostly be meh or worse. He had 3 long runs vs Denver, plus another in week 1 vs Detroit. Really nice, but those 2 games don't carry over to help the other 8 in which he's been ineffective. He's basically as good as the OL is plus he's fast so if he gets an opening he'll take it longer than Powell-like backs. Most RBs are just products of their OLs, which is why I'm typically so against it.

Other reason (and this is me really rationalizing) is Darnold+Bell could be a magnet for other better players so we don't only get others' lazy cash-ins and FA leftovers no one else wanted. Mostly it's because of Darnold's development and the foregone conclusion Macc will just piss it away anyhow. 

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25 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said:

I was 100% against trading for the guy and would prefer we spend on O-line and pass rush this offseason. However, with how terrible free agency is looking for o-line, we have to spend our money somehow and I’d be for this for the simple fact that we have to spend our money and fill holes.

We should be able to get 3 year out of him and can pair him with Crowell who is being paid like a #2 anyways. We have to give Sam as many weapons as possible and can’t keep waiting. This free agency period is going to be absolutely terrible.

I’m done waiting and if you haven’t noticed, no teams are in cap hell anymore and our horrible drafting ensures that we will have plenty of space in upcoming years since we won’t be resigning our own rookies. It’s time to be aggressive for Sam to have a shot. O-line is our biggest issue but fill every other hole possible in FA. 

If the Rams can add anyone they want at any given time and find ways to create cap room, so can the Jets with a 100 mil to spend.  

As you mentioned, it just so happened that the Jets timed all this money with one of the worst FA list's I've seen a long long time and the marque players are more than likely going to be resigned or tagged and the offensive skillz player market, is terrible.  Bell is the legit, the only I would that I can think you can look at and without a doubt say, he will make this offense better.  

I dont think adding Bell should prevent you from improving the OL too.  I legit dont want to see a dollar spent on D.  Get Bell, buy an OL, get a professional WR who knows how to get open, resign Q,, develop Herndon - all of this can be done with 100 mil available to spend. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

If the Rams can add anyone they want at any given time and find ways to create cap room, so can the Jets with a 100 mil to spend.  

As you mentioned, it just so happened that the Jets timed all this money with one of the worst FA list's I've seen a long long time and the marque players are more than likely going to be resigned or tagged and the offensive skillz player market, is terrible.  Bell is the legit, the only I would that I can think you can look at and without a doubt say, he will make this offense better.  

I dont think adding Bell should prevent you from improving the OL too.  I legit dont want to see a dollar spent on D.  Get Bell, buy an OL, get a professional WR who knows how to get open, resign Q,, develop Herndon - all of this can be done with 100 mil available to spend. 

Well with the way FA is shaping up, I’d spend on Bell, 2 of the best pass rushers AND take a chance on a few offensive lineman that can at least be depth. Some may surprise and start.

If after the draft, a rookie OL or 2 and maybe one of these depth guys can start, you can easily cut any one of Spencer Long, Beachum and/or Winters for cap room to carry over next year. Basically, horde as much talent as possible and figure it out during camp.

We’d still be under the cap if we did this and could still trim PLENTY of fat after assessing all players. 

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31 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

On the surface, Pittsburgh's looking more like a RB kingmaker than being the product of Bell. People were claiming Bell was the straw that stirred that drink. It's sure not looking like that.

  • These past 5 weeks without him they're averaging 35 ppg.
  • Through 9 games Conner has 1158 total yards and 11 TDs, already matching Bell's career high in TDs in any full season.
  • He's averaging 4.7ypc without a couple of ultra-long runs skewing that figure (his longest single run of the year is just 30 yards). 

On paper, at least so far, they're not missing Bell at all. Plus they can spend that $ to shore up other position(s) in 2019+. 

We'll see. So far this year, more than 1/3 of Conner's production (400 yds and 4 TDs) came in the 2 matchups vs the Browns alone. Then another 300+ yds and 4 TDs in the 2 Falcons and Bengals games. These aren't exactly the league's 3 stingiest rush defenses and he's put up 700 yds and 8 TDs in those 4 games; meanwhile 400 total yds and 3 TDs in the other 5 (including major stinkers in the Baltimore and KC losses, plus his fumble and inability to get past the sticks & run the clock let Cleveland back in the game week 1).

Now it's not right to just delete just the easiest stat games unless doing that for every RB, but it's something to note when we have only such a small sample thus far. Will he hit a wall in December after 200+ carries? Will he get constant nagging injuries in the upcoming months/years? Will he be a playoffs choker? Will he be a big winner? We honestly don't know yet. 

That's the thing that I think a few people in the Connor vs. Bell debate are missing, Bell has been a monster in the postseason when the competition gets tougher.  Dude killed the best D in the league last year in the playoffs.  We've yet to see if Connor can do that.  Playoff football is much different than regular season Football.

And all the said, even if Connor keeps it up through the post season, none of his success changes the fact that Bell is one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in the league and would instantly be the best offensive player the Jets have had in maybe ever.

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33 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

He is projecting a run of good years for the team he signs with, I am projecting he does not get injured.  The fact is he is making ZERO dollars this year.  Are you thinking a team will give him a fully guaranteed contract against injury?

He's looking for ~$40m fully guaranteed (3 years at ~$15m per). He might get it. If he isn't Revis-sucky or injured in year 2, the dead cap hit and partial guarantees for year 3 might get him that 3rd season to effectively make that a 3 year guarantee.

Would he have made that much on Pittsburgh's extension offer? Only if he stayed healthy for 3 years.

Would he have made that much under the FT tag? Only if he stayed healthy and had a banner season this year.

The whole point of his holdout is he didn't want to bet $45m on what might have been 1/3 of that. I can understand. He doesn't have a high 1st rounder's nest egg, and has been essentially on year-to-year, prove-it deals his entire career, and he plays the most injury-prone position on the field.

Truth is RBs get raw deals (relative to other positions) under this CBA. No other position has that kind of wear & tear that robs most of their innate gifts so quickly. 

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

That's the thing that I think a few people in the Connor vs. Bell debate are missing, Bell has been a monster in the postseason when the competition gets tougher.  Dude killed the best D in the league last year in the playoffs.  We've yet to see if Connor can do that.  Playoff football is much different than regular season Football.

And all the said, even if Connor keeps it up through the post season, none of his success changes the fact that Bell is one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in the league and would instantly be the best offensive player the Jets have had in maybe ever.

Well, in fairness he's been good in the postseason when he hasn't been missing games due to injury, which has happened a lot.

I looked it up earlier in the season & think he's missed like half Pittsburgh's playoff games over his career. 

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16 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Typically I'd say no as well. Depends how Darnold looks the rest of the way (and especially depends if they bring Macc back). If he looks panicked through December, and if Macc is still the GM, I could get behind it.

My reasoning is Macc's going to piss that same money away anyhow, on 4 year contracts with 2 guaranteed years, for a 1 year bandaid that gets him another extension.

We're not winning a SB in 2019. By 2020 we'll be regretting probably all but 1 of Macc's 2019 veteran signings anyhow. We won't even be real contenders in 2019, even though I do expect a big win-improvement that'll get overstated like 2015. So through it all, the only thing that matters will be Darnold developing because his tenure here should outlive Macc and the next stupid HC Woody/Chris/Macc hire. It's just a shame we won't be able to take serious advantage of his cheaper rookie contract years because of our FO+coaching ineptitude.

If paying a ransom to Bell furthers that, then because of the above I might be on board even with 2.5 guaranteed seasons I'd never otherwise agree to, because I don't think he'll be worth year 3. For the next 2 years? He's a special player and Crowell just isn't. Cro's showing firsthand how a player can average nearly 5 ypc and still mostly be meh or worse. He had 3 long runs vs Denver, plus another in week 1 vs Detroit. Really nice, but those 2 games don't carry over to help the other 8 in which he's been ineffective. He's basically as good as the OL is plus he's fast so if he gets an opening he'll take it longer than Powell-like backs. Most RBs are just products of their OLs, which is why I'm typically so against it.

Other reason (and this is me really rationalizing) is Darnold+Bell could be a magnet for other better players so we don't only get others' lazy cash-ins and FA leftovers no one else wanted. Mostly it's because of Darnold's development and the foregone conclusion Macc will just piss it away anyhow. 

Good points.  But I'm not really looking at this signing in terms of how much more competitive Bell makes the Jets as a whole.  I'm looking at in what my opinion is the only thing that matters and that's; how much does the presence of Bell aid the development of Sam Darnold.  IMO?  It's a metric poop ton.  And to me, you cant put a price tag on that.

And while I normally agree, the OL can make the RB.  However, I think Bell is special and help an OL because of his patience and ability to catch out of the backfield is uncanny.  That can take a lof of pressure off an OL with his ability to wait for the hole, get skinny and gain positive yardage.  He's the opposite of Crow from that perspective who just falls over if the their inst a canyon like lane in front of him.  And his ability in the passing game would hypothetically aid the OL because you would imagine he'd be the quick pass option for the offense coming out of the backfield or lining up in the slot.

It sounds like Big Mac is back.  I have zero confidence in him when it comes to the draft, especially on offense, so buy it.  Otherwise, we're going to be unwatchable Football for another year with this bozo running the show while ruining Darnold in the process. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

I'd normally be dead set against giving a RB a second contract but Bell isnt just any old RB.  He's one of the my dynamic players I've ever seen.  He can do it all and that is so valuable to an offense and a young QB it's worth the price tag IMO. 

We have one of, if not the least talented rosters in Football especially on offense.  Passing on an elite. arguably top 10 player in this league just doesnt make sense to me.  I know we all want to draft these guys but this is the Jets we're talking about, we'd be searching for that guy for the rest of our lives.  And you cant put a price tag on Sam Darnold's development.  

You have a 100 mil to spend.  Spend it on the guy who is best served to help you young QB and that guy is Bell. 

Pretty much 

When you have deficiencies all over the place on offense, $100 million to spend and the WR and OL markets are total trash...you throw the bank at Le’Veon Bell. If he isn’t the best RB in the league, then he’s only 2nd to Gurley.

As both a runner and receiver he can do wonders for Darnold’s early development.

I’ve said for months that the Jets should use the bulk of their cash in free agency to add Bell, at least one (preferably two) edgerushers (someone like Dee Ford and a mid-tier guy like Shane Ray/Shaq Barrett). That’s easily the strength of this upcoming FA market.

Then look to address OL and WR early in the draft.

 

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19 minutes ago, JiF said:

Good points.  But I'm not really looking at this signing in terms of how much more competitive Bell makes the Jets as a whole.  I'm looking at in what my opinion is the only thing that matters and that's; how much does the presence of Bell aid the development of Sam Darnold.  IMO?  It's a metric poop ton.  And to me, you cant put a price tag on that.

And while I normally agree, the OL can make the RB.  However, I think Bell is special and help an OL because of his patience and ability to catch out of the backfield is uncanny.  That can take a lof of pressure off an OL with his ability to wait for the hole, get skinny and gain positive yardage.  He's the opposite of Crow from that perspective who just falls over if the their inst a canyon like lane in front of him.  And his ability in the passing game would hypothetically aid the OL because you would imagine he'd be the quick pass option for the offense coming out of the backfield or lining up in the slot.

It sounds like Big Mac is back.  I have zero confidence in him when it comes to the draft, especially on offense, so buy it.  Otherwise, we're going to be unwatchable Football for another year with this bozo running the show while ruining Darnold in the process. 

I wasn't at all disagreeing, but rather was just noting there is also an indirect extra effect.

Production attracts better people. If Darnold starts to turn the corner with Bell around, perhaps we'll be less likely to get turned down by WRs and OLmen in FA again. They'll have less fear they'll just be cut by a bottom-rate team after the guaranteed $ is gone, with their previously good name now sullied. 

I'm still on the fence. That's a lot for a RB. Shaun Alexander was special like Bell, and was arguably the best RB in football at 28, then was nothing at 29. More examples of that than success stories into RBs' very late 20s and early 30s. A little different, in that Bell will be 27 next year not 29, after taking off fully for his age-26 season, and Alexander had more miles on him. If Bell could last 3 more seasons playing at his previous level he'd be worth it #1 because of Darnold and #2 because we're not winning with Maccagnan anyway. Of course if Bowles is also retained he'd just run Bell into the ground.

If Bell would sign a deal with just 2 years fully guaranteed, as things sit today I'd probably pounce on that. Far more than I'd worry about extending or even retaining the likes of Leo Williams if it came down to that; talented and young as Leo is, this team's shown it's perfectly capable of being run over with or without him. 

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2 minutes ago, section314 said:

Just curious....if Bell was willing to sit out a season, give up $15mm, and play for a team like the Steelers that has a great shot to go to the Super Bowl and might have the best O Line in the NFL, why on earth does anyone think he'd even take a call from the Jets?

1. Who else is going to give him the money?

2. Who else needs a star RB?

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

That's the thing that I think a few people in the Connor vs. Bell debate are missing, Bell has been a monster in the postseason when the competition gets tougher.  Dude killed the best D in the league last year in the playoffs.  We've yet to see if Connor can do that.  Playoff football is much different than regular season Football.

And all the said, even if Connor keeps it up through the post season, none of his success changes the fact that Bell is one of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in the league and would instantly be the best offensive player the Jets have had in maybe ever.

That's the problem with this league, a lot of vets go through the motions & turn it up in the playoffs on teams that make the playoffs. Bell, in the playoffs, primetime after everyone's basically said he's easily replaceable? I'd love to see the effort. 

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