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ATTN: You hot shot wannabe GM's out there...


NIGHT STALKER

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Ok I will take a stab at this one. I say draft AJ Hawk at #4. An OT or NT (Gabe Watson) will fall to round 2.

Hawk would be a pefect fit for 3/4...but do we have the horses up front? That NT position worries the crap out of me. Vilma suffered because of it this past season.

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Gabe Watson can easily fill that role along with a FA acquistion to rotate with Watson and Pouha. D-Slob would move to end with Ellis. Shifting to 4-3, D-slob moves in, Abe comes down into End. LB's would be Hawk, Vilma, Hobson, Barton, Brown, etc.

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If I was GM I would trade down and aquire as many picks as possible. If you look at the last 3 "dynasties" all three of them (SF, Dal, NE) traded down to aquire multiple picks. I agree as it increases your odds on getting good players.

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I used to be of the mind to draft the best player you can get your hands on. The bloated and slotted salaries of these rookies has made me change my view. Absolutely, we'd miss out on a couple of playmakers by staying away from the #1 pick, or top-5 or whatever. But missing on a #15 pick doesn't have the devastating effect on a team's ability to be competitive as missing on a player getting $20-$30M in guaranteed $ (not counting the salary, which may as well be guaranteed since the player is uncuttable for some time).

How often has a team made the superbowl solely because a top draft pick made the difference that a lower pick (or lower priced FA) could not? Given that there have been 25 top-5 picks since 2000, could the exception of a player or two really justify all those other misses?

Take away the last few drafts, as some players simply mature later (though that alone makes an argument as to these players not worthy of a $20M+ SB on draft day) & look at a 5-year window of top-5 picks:

Peyton Manning

Ryan Leaf

Andre Wadsworth

Charles Woodson

Curtis Enis

Tim Couch

Donovan McNabb

Akili Smith

Edgerrin James

Ricky Williams

Courtney Brown

LaVar Arrington

Chris Samuels

Peter Warrick

Jamal Lewis

Michael Vick

Leonard Davis

Gerard Warren

Justin Smith

LaDainian Tomlinson

David Carr

Julius Peppers

Joey Harrington

Mike Williams

Quentin Jammer

So personal feelings about a particular player aside, one could make the arguement that 11 of these players (less than 50%) were worthy of a top-5 pick. Not a first-round pick, not a draft pick in general, but a top-5 pick. A smart team simply does not put up $20-$30M on a player that, at best, has a 50/50 chance of not being worthy.

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trading down is all well and good but you need to find a partner if you want to dance. this isn't like vegas there is no cashier's box where teams can saunter up and turn 1 elite pick into 4 late first early second rounders - "just trade down" well it's alot harder than it sounds.

not to mention that the last time the Jets were staring at the best OT prospect they traded down twice - past Pace, past Jones to nab Farrior, Dedric Ward, Leon Johnson, Jason ferguson and about 8 other worthless scrubs.

In short - trading down is very tricky and can backfire just like any other draft pick. I think the safe play is to keep the pick and take the BAP - whoever that may be.

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trading down is all well and good but you need to find a partner if you want to dance. this isn't like vegas there is no cashier's box where teams can saunter up and turn 1 elite pick into 4 late first early second rounders - "just trade down" well it's alot harder than it sounds.

not to mention that the last time the Jets were staring at the best OT prospect they traded down twice - past Pace, past Jones to nab Farrior, Dedric Ward, Leon Johnson, Jason ferguson and about 8 other worthless scrubs.

In short - trading down is very tricky and can backfire just like any other draft pick. I think the safe play is to keep the pick and take the BAP - whoever that may be.

I understand completely. I want us to trade down as much as possible, but that doesn't mean there will be any who want to move up & offer the appropriate compensation.

Thank goodness for those moral victories against Oakland/Buffalo after the season was already over for us. Now we can hold our heads high. Could've gotten a couple of top-half firsts and a couple of seconds & built 1/3 of a good, starting football team for that #1 pick.

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Peyton Manning

Ryan Leaf

Andre Wadsworth

Charles Woodson

Curtis Enis

Tim Couch

Donovan McNabb

Akili Smith

Edgerrin James

Ricky Williams

Courtney Brown

LaVar Arrington

Chris Samuels

Peter Warrick

Jamal Lewis

Michael Vick

Leonard Davis

Gerard Warren

Justin Smith

LaDainian Tomlinson

David Carr

Julius Peppers

Joey Harrington

Mike Williams

Quentin Jammer

first off your sample size is pretty small to be making such broad generalizations - 5 years is a bubble not a history of the draft.

secondly the draft regardless of position is a less than 50/50 proposition - you can draft a bust at the end of the 7th round that will cost you less than a bust at the end of the 2nd round but a bust is still a bust - the point of the draft is to not pick busts and the higher you "don't pick busts" the better that player will be. The best players of all time pretty much come from the top 10 slots of the draft. yes there are notable exceptions but that's exactly what they are - exceptions.

finally you are judging pretty harshly. some of these guys may not have lived up to their draft slot but they are not busts either.

Courtney Brown/Gerard Warren are starters on one of the final 4 teams left playing.

Justin Smith is very underrated and nasty.

Leonard Davis is a starting LT.

David Carr is a starting QB. Harrington will have another chance somewhere.

I like to grade these players on an ordinal scale: +1, 0 and -1. +1 is a BOOM, -1 is a BUST and 0 is OK. These guys are mostly 0's not -1's -

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Go back and take as big of a sample as you like. These were thought to be THE premiere talents in the whole country.

A bust is not a bust. Not anymore. Bust with a late first or a 2nd or later & you just blew your draft pick. Bust at the #4 position nowadays & you blew your draft pick and over $20M of cap room.

You want to give a big talent a $20M SB? Pick one off the pro-bowl roster who's already proven he's worth it.

On that note, if we're stuck at #4 with no trading partner, I like Brick.

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and I didn't say that anyone not in boldface was a bust. Just that they weren't worth the kind of money it takes to sign them out of college with a pick that high. Being a "starter" doesn't mean they were worth the investment (pick & cap-wise). Adrian Jones is a starter in the NFL, but no one would draft him 5th in the country.

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i agree with these statements but my point is you can't draft scared.

a good GM can't think to himself:

"what if this high pick doesn't live up to expectations?"

he should think "how can I make the best pick possible? given this draft slot"

we can look at bust rates and cap numbers but the bottom line is that there are more first rounders in the hall of fame than any other round. of those players there are more players from the first half of the round then there are players in the second half of the round - and so on and so forth.

The Jets are in a great position to draft, they shouldn't overly think about the money to be spent and the risk they should think about tabbing the next hall of famer or even the next ten year starter, 3 time all-pro.

btw it's tough to quantify how a player lives up to draft status or not.

Way back when Desmond Howard was a #4 overall pick and considered a bust for most of his career but then he had that big game in the Super Bowl for the Packers and i would say lived up to draft status since he broke that game open... it just took a while to live up to that status.

If they don't take that risk and move on a top 5 player - someone else will and they could get a bust but they also could get the next HOF'er. That's the beauty of the draft. If you do it well you can win championships.

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Bit, I'm a Cutler fan...where do you project him? I doubt these guys will draft him...so, because I think another team will grab him, do we draft a QB in another round?

Or do you think we fill this spot in FA? And you are 100% right...if the QB position is not answered by camp, we will look very similar to this past team...competitive wise.

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