Demarco Murray; cautionary tale RE: Bell signing

[Creepy Lurker]

4 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

We currently sit at #4 our odds at getting Bosa go up each game, notice our remaining schedule. 

Yeah, either way, we will be in a good spot draftwise. I’d realistically like to get to 3. So many top 10 6 picks. What a sh*tshow. 

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, Creepy Lurker said:

Yeah, either way, we will be in a good spot draftwise. I’d realistically like to get to 3. So many top 10 6 picks. What a sh*tshow. 

Call me crazy its ok but I see us getting the #1 pick. 

[Creepy Lurker]

6 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Call me crazy its ok but I see us getting the #1 pick. 

I think the raiders can squeak out a few wins but the likelihood of the raiders/cardinal/niners winning is too slim to get #1. I can dream. 

[bostonmajet]

3 hours ago, heymangold said:

bell is 26, 27 for next season.  and if he retires early, his number comes off the books - no?

 

If he retires early, you don't have to pay his contact or other guaranteed money, but his signing bonus accelerates to a year or two. But, the point of the article is that RBs have, on average, much shorter careers (the slow down, break down, etc). Say we sign him to a 4 year deal with a good signing bonus. He likely isn't going to retire early (he wants the money), but we will likely have to bench him, release him, or IR him at some point. In either case we are stuck for the salary for that year and any guaranteed money after that.

You don't sing a player long term that is close to the end of his career. How would like to be stuck with Soldier's contract. He has played like crap, is one of the most expensive players on the team, has a high dead cap number, and is declining rapidly.

[Beerfish]

We could very well sign him.

Reason #1 is we have tons of cap space and will not be able to out compete any of the good players we should sign.  thus mac will be standing by the side of the road with hundred dollar bills hanging out of his pockets and Bell will drive up in a beat up van and offer him a lift.

[jeremy2020]

2 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Le'Veon Bell is not your ordinary free agent a superstar game changer like him isn't available that often.  

Similar to Khalil Mack who has taken the Bears D to another level. 

 

Yeah, just like Mack. Bell's production wasn't able to be replaced by a rookie draft pick.

[RoadFan]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

All true. But we have an OL right now that will not be opening huge holes. Ans further, spare Riggins and Frank Gore it's really hard to find cases of backs who were very effective after their 30th birthdays.  Figure Bell will want more years and more guaranteed money, probably a 5 year deal at least. Years 3-5 will be a death march if NFL history is any guide. And those years figure to be right when you would expect to reupp Darnold long term. 

Basic flow chart of draft; Bosa if he's there, or trade down and max out numbers . Either way all other picks go to the offense. 

Bell doesn't need "huge holes."  He needs a sliver of daylight.  He either sees it right away,  or waits for it... One way or another he will find positive yardage.   The Jets will front load the deal, leaving them an out after 3 or 4 years.  Plus, the only thing that matters is helping Darnold in his sophomore and junior season anyway.

[joewilly12]

3 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Bell doesn't need "huge holes."  He needs a sliver of daylight.  He either sees it right away,  or waits for it... One way or another he will find positive yardage.   The Jets will front load the deal, leaving them an out after 3 or 4 years.  Plus, the only thing that matters is helping Darnold in his sophomore and junior season anyway.

Need a true #1 WR to help Darnold too. 

[RoadFan]

7 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Need a true #1 WR to help Darnold too. 

Then draft one at #5... 

He won't be found in fraud agency, that's for certain.

Unless stiffs like Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins for $13M or $14M per year sounds good.

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Then draft one at #5... 

He won't be found in fraud agency, that's for certain.

Unless stiffs like Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins for $13M or $14M per year sounds good.

Agree who do you think is worth picking at 5 thats coming out of college,I haven't really been following college football this season. 

[Paradis]

Agree who do you think is worth picking at 5 thats coming out of college,I haven't really been following college football this season. 

No one this year. Not over the OLB and OT prospects we’ll have a shot at.


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[estang74]

If the Jets do this, they should load up on O Line in the draft. I’m not against the move because he’s a great runner, Jets have a ton of cap space and it’s been a while since the Jets have had a great RB. Drafting RB’s in the later rounds and ignoring the O line in the top half of the draft is what is really killing this team right now. Bell will be a waste if the Line isn’t overhauled though.

[RoadFan]

14 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Agree who do you think is worth picking at 5 thats coming out of college,I haven't really been following college football this season. 

Me neither.  I watch the tape in April... and again in July and August for my dynasty league.  Sometimes I'm right... sometimes I miss.  

I am right more than the NY Jets, that's for sure.  They suck...

[Paradis]

Murray is not like Bell.   Murray was a much higher contact runner.  Bell is a low contact runner.  I keep pointing this out! Murray's mileage was like a Chevy Silverado occasionally towing something, and having to spend some winters in the rust belt.  He lowered his shoulder often.

Bell's mileage is like a Toyota Corolla running mostly on the highway in a warm climate.  Bell rarely looks to initiate contact.  He avoids it.  Goes down if no more yardage there.  Steps out of bounds instead of taking unnecessary hits.  Throws stiff arms instead of taking shots. 

He is a space runner, not a punisher.   And he will find space, his vision and acceleration is exceptional.  He is a baller!!!!

READ THE ABOVE!!!!

 

 

Lol you’re going to be like this are you

 

Look, you want people to get on board, than dont manipulate the facts. You can spin all the analogies you want about models and makes - but you have to honour the fact that RBs who have logged the mileage Bell has have a propensity to blow a tire after and never regain their zip. That’s just reality and a risk you have to be comfortable with.

 

 

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[Matt39]

40 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Bell doesn't need "huge holes."  He needs a sliver of daylight.  He either sees it right away,  or waits for it... One way or another he will find positive yardage.   The Jets will front load the deal, leaving them an out after 3 or 4 years.  Plus, the only thing that matters is helping Darnold in his sophomore and junior season anyway.

Bell averaged like 4.0 YPC last season. He’s very ok. Him on the Jets where they’re forced to give him the ball 300 times will be a disaster.

A running back should be drafted every year in rounds 2-5. They shouldn’t be acquired in free agency. Just look around the league and look at the teams whose starting back was acquired via FA. They all stink.

[RoadFan]

8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

Lol you’re going to be like this are you

 

Look, you want people to get on board, than dont manipulate the facts. You can spin all the analogies you want about models and makes - but you have to honour the fact that RBs who have logged the mileage Bell has have a propensity to blow a tire after and never regain their zip. That’s just reality and a risk you have to be comfortable with.

 

 

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You're a good poster...

Bell hasn't logged any miles recently.  He has been in the garage.  He will start his next long trip across the country fully serviced, brakes replaced, all the fluids topped off, etc.

And hopefully Darnold will be behind the wheel... with a new offensive coach plotting the course.

[RoadFan]

4 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Bell averaged like 4.0 YPC last season. He’s very ok. Him on the Jets where they’re forced to give him the ball 300 times will be a disaster.

A running back should be drafted every year in rounds 2-5. They shouldn’t be acquired in free agency. Just look around the league and look at the teams whose starting back was acquired via FA. They all stink.

Same response.   Fraud agency is the disaster.   He will be the best available player by a mile.

[Matt39]

Just now, RoadFan said:

Same response.   Fraud agency is the disaster.   He will be the best available player by a mile.

Depends if Clowney or Lawrence are available 

[Paradis]

You're a good poster...
Bell hasn't logged any miles recently.  He has been in the garage.  He will start his next long trip across the country fully serviced, brakes replaced, all the fluids topped off, etc.
And hopefully Darnold will be behind the wheel... with a new offensive coach plotting the course.

Regardless - the numbers don’t lie. There’s a very strong correlation with Running backs who hit 400 touches (bell had 406 in 2017) and a dramatic drop off after — especially post 25 years old.... That’s history talking, not me. There’s more RBs who break down, than not in that circumstance.

Just saying you can’t ignore that. It’s not one sided discussion.


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[RoadFan]

5 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Depends if Clowney or Lawrence are available 

Clowney?   $20M per year for 9 sacks...

3 of them will come in the one game when the Jets play a backup QB and win by 3 TDs.  And Clowney wont help Darnold.

Pass.

[joewilly12]

3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Depends if Clowney or Lawrence are available 

 

Just now, RoadFan said:

Clowney?   $20M per year for 12 sacks...

3 of them will come in the one game when the Jets play a backup QB and win by 3 TDs.  And Clowney wont help Darnold.

Pass.

A legitimate pass rush helps the entire team especially the D it keeps them off the field and they will be able to generate more 3 and outs. 

 

[RoadFan]

1 minute ago, joewilly12 said:

 

A legitimate pass rush helps the entire team especially the D it keeps them off the field and they will be able to generate more 3 and outs. 

 

I stand corrected.  Clowney has never exceeded more than 9.5 sacks.  Colossal fraud agency bust... guaranteed.

[Saul Goodman]

I can understand people not wanting the Jets to sign Bell to a monster contract. I can not understand people who don’t want the Jets to at least make him an offer. 

And regarding the player comparison between Bell and Murray, Bell has shiftiness and receiving skills that Murray never had on his best day. 

[RoadFan]

10 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

Regardless - the numbers don’t lie. There’s a very strong correlation with Running backs who hit 400 touches (bell had 406 in 2017) and a dramatic drop off after — especially post 25 years old.... That’s history talking, not me. There’s more RBs who break down, than not in that circumstance.

Just saying you can’t ignore that. It’s not one sided discussion.


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OK.  But people talking at me like he is a broken down Eddie George at the age of 27 is ridiculous.   And the Jets only need two great years out of Le'V to get their money's worth... age 27 and 28.

If Darnold makes strides, and Bell is a big part of it, which I believe he will be... who in their right mind is going to say the Jets would have been better off spending $14M on the other stiffs?  And they are stiffs!   That cannot be argued with me.

[Paradis]

OK.  But people talking at me like he is a broken down Eddie George at the age of 27 is ridiculous.   And the Jets only need two great years out of Le'V to get their money's worth... age 27 and 28.
If Darnold makes strides, and Bell is a big part of it, which I believe he will be... who in their right mind is going to say the Jets would have been better off spending $14M on the other stiffs?  And they are stiffs!   That cannot be argued with me.

Sure. I as well would rather have bell than more Crowell and Pryor bargain bin bullsh*t... all I’m saying is you have to be honest about the situation- it has its risks. I prioritize a good OT and Pass Rusher before going down that road - but it’s looking like there won’t be a bounty of talent as of today in FA. we’ll see.


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[RoadFan]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

 

Sure. I as well would rather have bell than more Crowell and Pryor bargain bin bullsh*t... all I’m saying is you have to be honest about the situation- it has its risks. I prioritize a good OT and Pass Rusher before going down that road - but it’s looking like there won’t be a bounty of talent as of today in FA. we’ll see.


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Fair enough.   The value in free agency, I am calling it by the actual name this time due to context, is at the lower spectrum.   Versatile backup offensive linemen that can play multiple positions.  Rotational defensive lineman like McLendon.  Special Teams guys.  The "splashy" deals are usually the ones a team can't wait to get out from a year or two later because it was a colossal error.

I am advocating Le'V because I feel he has the highest reward of any overpriced guy.  And I have watched him alot.

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

Fair enough.   The value in free agency, I am calling it by the actual name this time due to context, is at the lower spectrum.   Versatile backup offensive linemen that can play multiple positions.  Rotational defensive lineman like McLendon.  Special Teams guys.  The "splashy" deals are usually the ones a team can't wait to get out from a year or two later because it was a colossal error.

I am advocating Le'V because I feel he has the highest reward of any overpriced guy.  And I have watched him alot.

This is why you should sign Bell....Where are we going to spend the money?  If we have all of this cap space, what are we saving it for? better back-ups? better rotational defensive players? Those guys aren't changing games.  Bell can.

Look, if we had our own players to sign to big contracts or there was a legit DE available or a Tackle that could make a difference then sure...don't sign the RB ----- but with the current shape of the Jets' roster, their available cap space and the free agent market - signing Bell is a no brainer for the Jets.

[RoadFan]

7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is why you should sign Bell....Where are we going to spend the money?  If we have all of this cap space, what are we saving it for? better back-ups? better rotational defensive players? Those guys aren't changing games.  Bell can.

Look, if we had our own players to sign to big contracts or there was a legit DE available or a Tackle that could make a difference then sure...don't sign the RB ----- but with the current shape of the Jets' roster, their available cap space and the free agent market - signing Bell is a no brainer for the Jets.

Exactly part of the point I have been trying to make...

[JohnnyLV]

Signing this cancer is literally the dumbest thing this organization could do outside of keeping Bowles and Mac, so they will likely do all 3. 

[Thai Jet]

13 hours ago, Bugg said:

What DeMarco Murray’s Early Retirement Means for the NFL’s Current Crop of Star Running Backs

Just three years after being named the AP’s Offensive Player of the Year, Murray is out of the league. And his career arc could provide a glimpse into the sad financial futures of backs like Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley.

By Riley McAtee  Jul 13, 2018, 5:28pm EDT

In the NFL, only kickers and punters get paid less than running backs. Offensive linemen, linebackers, and even tight ends make more than one of the league’s marquee positions. That seems curious, seeing as some of the sexiest names in the league line up in the backfield, but those players typically don’t last long. Running back careers have become so short that teams often refuse to invest in the position. Look no further than DeMarco Murray, who, three years after being one of the best players in football, retired on Friday.

Murray called it a career after seven seasons in which he racked up 9,339 yards from scrimmage, 55 touchdowns, three Pro Bowl appearances, and one solid contract from a team that almost instantly regretted signing it. In 2014, Murray was the best running back in football, and led the league with more than 1,800 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns behind Dallas’ talented offensive line. And he was due for a new contract at season’s end. The Cowboys offered him a four-year, $24 million deal, but Murray spurned them and went to the divisional rival Eagles on a five-year, $42 million contract.

It was a good deal for Murray. The $18 million guaranteed at signing was the third-highest for a running back at that time behind only Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy. But in his first season in Philadelphia, Murray disappointed, rushing for just 702 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. The then-27-year-old was so mediocre that, just one year after being one of the most important offensive weapons in the league, the Eagles traded him to the Titans for a fourth-round pick swap. Tennessee was the only team willing to take a chance on a player who just one year earlier was the AP Offensive Player of the Year.

After a brief resurgence in his first season with Tennessee (Murray rushed for 1,287 yards for the Titans in 2016), he faltered last year, with career lows in rushing yards (659) and yards per carry (3.6). The Titans cut him in March, saving $6.5 million against the salary cap, and four months later, no team had signed him. The Dolphins worked him out, but serious interest never seemed to emerge. And now, at age 30, Murray is hanging up his cleats.

Murray is a perfect example of why NFL teams don’t want to hand out big deals to running backs. After being drafted in the third round in 2011, he gave the Cowboys 4,526 rushing yards (4.8 per clip), 1,200 receiving yards, and 29 touchdowns through four seasons. During that stretch he was paid just $3.65 million. Then, when it came time to cash in on his rookie-contract production, the Cowboys lowballed him and let him walk. It’s ugly, doing that to a superstar. It is, also, given the league’s economics, the right business decision for the team.

Murray’s career arc—his immediate production and near-immediate decline after signing a real contract—has implications for some of the league’s current best backs. Le’Veon Bell is close to playing on the franchise tag for a second consecutive year as the Steelers waffle at giving him a long-term deal. Bell led the league in rushing attempts last year, and while he’s just 26, that was also the age Murray was in his All-Pro year. The Rams’ Todd Gurley is even younger—just shy of 24—but he sees the writing on the wall, and has been telling anyone who will listen this offseason that NFL players deserve fully guaranteed contracts. Gurley still has another two years left on his rookie deal, and after that he may be in the same franchise tag hell in which Bell has found himself. Arizona’s David Johnson has had virtually no traction in trying to get a new deal. And soon Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and even Saquon Barkley will likely find themselves in similar situations.

Running backs’ careers are too short for them to cash in—they’re the second-shortest in the league by position after wide receivers, per The Wall Street Journal, though elite-level wideouts certainly seem to last much longer than elite running backs. The first four or five seasons for a running back—when they’re tied up in bargain rookie deals—is generally the time they’re most valuable. Murray was able to cash in on one solid contract, and the Eagles were lucky just to move on from him when they did. If the Cowboys had given Murray the contract he wanted, it could have been a disaster for the long-term success of the team, and NFL franchises will no doubt take note. When it’s time to get paid, a rusher’s best years are often already behind them—and teams know that. For many players, that time is already here, and teams are going to look at what happened to Murray. Then they’ll do the same thing the Cowboys did: Lowball them, or let them walk.

 

 

[GreenWhite]

12 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

My first inclination was to avoid Bell at all costs. Joe Caporoso of Turn On The Jets swayed my opinion. With so much cap space available, you can give Bell a ridiculous amount of money and still have all the money you need to sign other players, especially if you front load the contract over the first two years. Bell has 2-3 years of premium play left in his tank. At this point, I'm indifferent to drafting a RB or signing Bell. I feel  the same way about Bell as I did about Cousins. If they get Bell, whatever. If they don't get Bell, whatever. 

He wont play hard on a bad team. This is not the guy to bring in. 

[Jetster]

I don't even like our own fans. There aren't even enough above average free agents, or players on our own team deserving of a big contract. 

Giving Bell a contract will have no affect 3 years from now except we get to watch an elite player in a Jets uniform. 

For those that don't want to sign Bell, tell me where YOUR spending 100 million? Robbie Anderson? 3 sack Leo? Oft injured Enunwa? Bell helps Sam Darnold. Let's start upgrading everything we can for him. Bell, top Guard in free agency, another WR, draft all offense, that still leaves money for pass rushers.

[NYs Stepchild]

17 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Need a true #1 WR to help Darnold too. 

Le'veon can be a receiver. That's what makes him different. 

Keeping the defense in base on passing downs is huge.

[varjet]

Bell only works on a heavily incentivized contract.   You give him a big guaranteed contract, he turns it off.  He is a mercenary, not a warrior.  

Pay him 20m if he plays 16 games and gains 2000 yards.  But he needs to produce to get paid most of that.  

He should a guaranteed base, which he gets so long as he does not get suspended or retires. 

[Greensleeves]

19 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

 

A legitimate pass rush helps the entire team especially the D it keeps them off the field and they will be able to generate more 3 and outs. 

 

Just saw a stat last week that Cimini posted that the Jets lead the league in 3 and outs. As you can see, none of it means a thing if we don't have a solid O-Line and offensive weapons in a league totally geared to the offensive side of the ball.