Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Jetsbb

Running the ball on 3rd and 5 with 2 minutes left up 3 points

Recommended Posts

What is the cost benefit analysis? Throwing the ball and converting wins you the game. The cost of not converting is they now have two timeouts instead of one. Does that make any difference though when they have plenty of time with one timeout only needing 3 to tie? Running the ball costs them a timeout but is useless since they have another timeout and only need a FG to tie. Would love to know the analytics percentage of how much greater your chances of winning are by throwing on third down vs running.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Benefit? Makes Bowles look like Bowles while we progress towards a high draft pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Running the ball makes them use their timeout. Throwing an incompletion gives them more time and an extra time out? Running the clock out is the right call plenty of other things to be upset about with the coaching staff

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

  • Upvote 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These end of game/end of half play choices are interesting but every play has significance

this game was lost because the offense settled for 5 FGs. Whether Bowles chooses to run or pass is arranging deck chairs on the titanic

not to mention the one time they did open it up at the end of regulation, down 4, McCown air-mailed the pick. 

I understand the frustration with coaches who are conservative but it's hard to critique these decisions when every time they open it up they lose the football. 

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

  • Upvote 1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

Running the ball makes them use their timeout. Throwing an incompletion gives them more time and an extra time out? Running the clock out is the right call plenty of other things to be upset about with the coaching staff

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

No throwing an incompletion does not give them more time and a timeout. It gives them one extra timeout than they otherwise would have had with the same amount of time. Why are you disregarding the benefit? You know the part where converting gives you the win. Making them use a timeout is negligible to the benefit of winning the damn game. How do you not see this? Stupid stupid game management is the primary reason to be upset about with this coaching staff.

  • Upvote 2
  • Post of the Week 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

What is the cost benefit analysis? Throwing the ball and converting wins you the game. The cost of not converting is they now have two timeouts instead of one. Does that make any difference though when they have plenty of time with one timeout only needing 3 to tie? Running the ball costs them a timeout but is useless since they have another timeout and only need a FG to tie. Would love to know the analytics percentage of how much greater your chances of winning are by throwing on third down vs running.

A good coach in today’s NFL throws the ball 10 out of 10 times there. 

Of course, I had no doubt that Bowles would tell Bates to run it. 

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These end of game/end of half play choices are interesting but every play has significance

this game was lost because the offense settled for 5 FGs. Whether Bowles chooses to run or pass is arranging deck chairs on the titanic

not to mention the one time they did open it up at the end of regulation, down 4, McCown air-mailed the pick. 

I understand the frustration with coaches who are conservative but it's hard to critique these decisions when every time they open it up they lose the football. 

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

Definitely played a big factor in the decision to run the ball vs. throw it on 3rd and 5 with 2 minutes left up 3 points. 

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Definitely played a big factor in the decision to run the ball vs. throw it on 3rd and 5 with 2 minutes left up 3 points. 

Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No throwing an incompletion does not give them more time and a timeout. It gives them one extra timeout than they otherwise would have had with the same amount of time. Why are you disregarding the benefit? You know the part where converting gives you the win. Making them use a timeout is negligible to the benefit of winning the damn game. How do you not see this? Stupid stupid game management is the primary reason to be upset about with this coaching staff.
They could have also gotten the first down running the ball you are talking no risk vs some risk for nearly the same amount of reward this is a safe call not a fun call but it really shows how desperate out fan base is to blame the coaches for anything

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

They could have also gotten the first down running the ball you are talking no risk vs some risk for nearly the same amount of reward this is a safe call not a fun call but it really shows how desperate out fan base is to blame the coaches for anything

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Yikes. How long have you been watching football? They ran to burn their timeout. Converting would have been an unexpected benefit and very unlikely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These end of game/end of half play choices are interesting but every play has significance

this game was lost because the offense settled for 5 FGs. Whether Bowles chooses to run or pass is arranging deck chairs on the titanic

not to mention the one time they did open it up at the end of regulation, down 4, McCown air-mailed the pick. 

I understand the frustration with coaches who are conservative but it's hard to critique these decisions when every time they open it up they lose the football. 

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

Most teams that’s good strategy but Bowles defense never holds leads. They were better off throwing on 3rd and 5 than relying on a defense that usually chokes in big moments or relying on mccown to lead a comeback by passing. 

The other issue I suspect many have with the decision is that bowles never goes for the flat out win, he prefers to win by attrition, aka, the other team eventually runs out of downs. Making Tennessee burn a time-out was not that big of a deal since they only needed a fg to tie the game anyway.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, bitonti said:

These end of game/end of half play choices are interesting but every play has significance

this game was lost because the offense settled for 5 FGs. Whether Bowles chooses to run or pass is arranging deck chairs on the titanic

not to mention the one time they did open it up at the end of regulation, down 4, McCown air-mailed the pick. 

I understand the frustration with coaches who are conservative but it's hard to critique these decisions when every time they open it up they lose the football. 

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

We only open it up when we are in desperation mode and the other team knows we have to throw.

It would be nice if they can open it up earlier and mix things up instead of being so predictable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Titans were crowding the line of scrimmage. It was almost impossible for us to run the ball in that situation. I thought at the time the right call was to pass the ball and try and win the game. We settled for FG time after time. Settling for FGs cost us the game.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

The Titans were crowding the line of scrimmage. It was almost impossible for us to run the ball in that situation. I thought at the time the right call was to pass the ball and try and win the game. We settled for FG time after time. Settling for FGs cost us the game.

EXACTLY. Be a man and try to win the game right there!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'd be nice if any of the beat team would actually press him on this, and force him to give any sort of rationale behind the play call there. Bowles in 4 years has said nothing of significance. Neither has Maccagnan. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

It'd be nice if any of the beat team would actually press him on this, and force him to give any sort of rationale behind the play call there. Bowles in 4 years has said nothing of significance. Neither has Maccagnan. 

they know he's gone and that he doesn't know what he's doing.  at this point the writers have basically moved on from analyzing the specifics and are focusing on who will be the next coach and whether darnold will be the qb again, the only 2 things that matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of the strat the defense loaded with 1st rounders, high priced Fa's and coached by  D guru never gets a stop anyway.  Does not matter if it is end of half or end of game the defense almost never comes up with a big stop.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bowles is an old school/defensive minded HC. He coaches not to lose. He never thinks of ways to put the offense in a position to win the game. Whether is Mccown or Darnold, he will always run it on 3rd down or do some predictable screen that nets zero yards. 

I know people want to blame Bates, and he deserves plenty of blame, but those end of game decisions come from the HC. Bowles may not call the exact play, but he can dictate whether the call is an aggressive or passive decision. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Bowles is an old school/defensive minded HC. He coaches not to lose. He never thinks of ways to put the offense in a position to win the game. Whether is Mccown or Darnold, he will always run it on 3rd down or do some predictable screen that nets zero yards. 

I know people want to blame Bates, and he deserves plenty of blame, but those end of game decisions come from the HC. Bowles may not call the exact play, but he can dictate whether the call is an aggressive or passive decision. 

Bowles let Morton go for throwing the ball too much, Bowles controls Bates like he's playing Madden. We were all talking about it throughout the Redzone incursions, the team is 3-8, Bowles keeps saying how frustrated losing is, well Todd, how about you actually TRY TO BE A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE EARLY? And now your 3-9 anyway! OMG I can't even stand looking at Bowles on the sideline anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Todd plays to tie.  Not win.  We had nothing to lose.  But the game. And.....

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, johnnyjet said:

Todd plays to tie.  Not win.  We had nothing to lose.  But the game. And.....

I remember talking to a friend of mine the other day and imagining a scenario where in the Jets last game of the season, we are tied in OT and with the ball on our own 20 yard line with 45 seconds left to play, we take 3 knees and the team carries Bowles off the field. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, johnnyjet said:

Todd plays to tie.  Not win.  We had nothing to lose.  But the game. And.....

and it would have gone into OT if his defense could have made a stop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

and it would have gone into OT if his defense could have made a stop.

No Guts.... No Glory.    That's our Todd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I remember talking to a friend of mine the other day and imagining a scenario where in the Jets last game of the season, we are tied in OT and with the ball on our own 20 yard line with 45 seconds left to play, we take 3 knees and the team carries Bowles off the field. 

GOOD GRIEF !

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

Ouch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, GreenFish said:

The Titans were crowding the line of scrimmage. It was almost impossible for us to run the ball in that situation. I thought at the time the right call was to pass the ball and try and win the game. We settled for FG time after time. Settling for FGs cost us the game.

They knew there was 0% chance Bowles would allow a pass attempt there and disrespected our offense with the way they lined up and sold out on the run. Ball-less Bowles wouldn't dare to risk an incompletion in that scenario in a lost season when he could play it safe and run/punt. Imagine how much this guys prick would turtle up if we ever played in a game that meant something? We'd be punting on 3rd downs if we ever got up 2 scores in the second half. "Just play defense guys, we got this."

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picking up first down on pass on 3rd and 5 no sure thing with this offense.  Not on a day when averaged 4 yards per dropback (128 yards/ 30 attempts and 2 sacks).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bitonti said:

These end of game/end of half play choices are interesting but every play has significance

this game was lost because the offense settled for 5 FGs. Whether Bowles chooses to run or pass is arranging deck chairs on the titanic

not to mention the one time they did open it up at the end of regulation, down 4, McCown air-mailed the pick. 

I understand the frustration with coaches who are conservative but it's hard to critique these decisions when every time they open it up they lose the football. 

Sam Darnold still leads the league in interceptions and he hasn't played for 3 weeks.

But in a lost season why are you being conservative? Now is the time to open it up and wing it. Go for an onside kick. Go for it on fourth down. Let the rookie rip it. We have NOTHING TO LOSE, everything that matters is ALREADY LOST.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jpoppy717 said:

Picking up first down on pass on 3rd and 5 no sure thing with this offense.  Not on a day when averaged 4 yards per dropback (128 yards/ 30 attempts and 2 sacks).  

What does having them burn a timeout do for you? 2 minutes and one timeout not enough time to get a FG? What the hell am I in the twilight zone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they throw in incomplete everyone loses their minds 

How about the ******* players make a play? 

This whining got old a week ago dude 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

But in a lost season why are you being conservative? Now is the time to open it up and wing it. Go for an onside kick. Go for it on fourth down. Let the rookie rip it. We have NOTHING TO LOSE, everything that matters is ALREADY LOST.

his decisions are based on what is least likely to be criticized.  running, punting and playing defense are the easiest decisions to make.  then if his defense craps the bed he can imply the loss was due to either blown assignments or penalties, neither of which he will take responsibility for.

33 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

What does having them burn a timeout do for you? 2 minutes and one timeout not enough time to get a FG? What the hell am I in the twilight zone?

the biggest irrelevant thing here.  the titans did not need a td, they only needed a fg to send the game to OT.  they had plenty of time to get into fg range with no timeouts anyway.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jpoppy717 said:

Picking up first down on pass on 3rd and 5 no sure thing with this offense.  Not on a day when averaged 4 yards per dropback (128 yards/ 30 attempts and 2 sacks).  

Of course it wasn't a sure thing. Do we just not try passing in football games because it's not a sure thing?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Larz said:

If they throw in incomplete everyone loses their minds 

How about the ******* players make a play? 

This whining got old a week ago dude 

WTF? Everyone throws it there why would anyone lose their minds for doing the sane thing every coach does? Again burning their timeout is useless.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company
×
×
  • Create New...