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What will it take for us to get the number two pick?


Bronxville Jets Fan

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Merry Xmas!  Thanks for Oakland’s win over Denver, we now have the third pick in the draft.  SF, which has the same record as the Jets, has the tie breaker advantage over us with a .504 SOS compared to the Jets .506 SOS.  So, other then a SF victory next week, does anyone know what needs to happen (wine or losses by other teams) for the Jets to win the SOS tiebreaker over SF?

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28 minutes ago, Ruby2 said:

 

 

 

A SF win and Jets loss would also do it, as well as Jets loss and Arizona win.

If the Jets lose, they get the #1 pick:

1. With a Loss

2. Arizona Win

3. SF win OR 3 of the following 4 results   NYG over DAL TB over ATL BAL over CLE LAC over DEN (2 of those are VERY likely)

We get #2 if we lose and either 2 or 3 happen.

It is not impossible for the Jets to get the #1 pick, and very good chance of #2.

In the NYG game, Dallas likely rests starters.

In Atlanta, Winston is playing for his future

Bal is heavy favorite over CLE and LAC are heavy favprites over Denver.

Three of those things happening is VERY possible

SF over a resting LAR team could definitely happen

ARI over SEA seems super unlikely though

We also could WIN which likely puts us at 4 or 5.

I would say something like:

5% #1

37.5% #2 

37.5% #3

20% Jets win and finish 4 or 5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

A SF win and Jets loss would also do it, as well as Jets loss and Arizona win.

If the Jets lose, they get the #1 pick:

1. With a Loss

2. Arizona Win

3. SF win OR 3 of the following 4 results   NYG over DAL TB over ATL BAL over CLE LAC over DEN (2 of those are VERY likely)

We get #2 if we lose and either 2 or 3 happen.

It is not impossible for the Jets to get the #1 pick, and very good chance of #2.

In the NYG game, Dallas likely rests starters.

In Atlanta, Winston is playing for his future

Bal is heavy favorite over CLE and LAC are heavy favprites over Denver.

Three of those things happening is VERY possible

SF over a resting LAR team could definitely happen

ARI over SEA seems super unlikely though

We also could WIN which likely puts us at 4 or 5.

I would say something like:

5% #1

37.5% #2 

37.5% #3

20% Jets win and finish 4 or 5

I actually think those odds are spot on. A top 2 pick SHOULD allow us to either get Bosa or trade out to a team who wants whoever the top QB will be. It's not too often we get years like the Manuel/Geno year at QB so let's how Herbert and Haskins commit and boost their stock.

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

People are hung up over these picks.  It's fun to discuss but really what does 2nd over 3rd do for us?  Not like we need that pick to jump over someone to get to a FQB or a Bosa.

3 vs 6 last year cost us 3 2nd second round picks. Not saying this year will net as much in a trade back, but every spot closer to #1 we get, the more value the pick has - and this organization needs to stockpile draft picks 

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I am not a big draftnik but once Bossa is presumably gone at #1 is there anybody else at the top of this draft that is so worth worrying about whether we pick 2 or 5? Maybe the draft hype really hasn't kicked in yet but it certainly does not feel like last year where besides all the QBs, teams were salivating over a shot at Barkley, Chubb and Nelson.

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22 minutes ago, Bronxville Jets Fan said:

Thanks!  The first two games seem difficult to go our way but I like our odds in the third and fourth games.  

Dallas is locked into the 4 seed.  They may be ressting starters against the Giants, which gives us a better chance in that one.

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9 minutes ago, 20andOut said:

I am not a big draftnik but once Bossa is presumably gone at #1 is there anybody else at the top of this draft that is so worth worrying about whether we pick 2 or 5? Maybe the draft hype really hasn't kicked in yet but it certainly does not feel like last year where besides all the QBs, teams were salivating over a shot at Barkley, Chubb and Nelson.

The thing is, there’s always a chance that a qb leaps ahead of bosa and goes first.  So having the 2nd vs 3rd pick may matter if you want him.  Of course i still want the jets to beat NE with darnold, but that’s out of my hands.  

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2 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Im in for the WIN on Sunday a top 5 pick is ok by me. 

I think Sunday is going to be one of those games -- while the game is on, seeing Brady and Gronk on the field; Beli on the sidelines, I am going to want to see us crush those f**kers.  And then,when its over, if we lose, I will take solace in the 2nd or 3rd pick.  Felt the same way this past Sunday, really wanted to win while watching that game, but once it was over, the loss was easy to take considering the draft position.

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I could understand the tank thing if there were an offensive player worthy of a top 5 pick this year or it there were a player I thought a team would be willing to give fair value in a trade for but this doesn't seem to be a good year for us to tank. I simply can not justify cheering for the patriots to beat us next week.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

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The LAR are not resting players.  If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, they fall to the third seed.  

But that said, the other three are very possible.  LAC are still in the hunt for the #1 seed.  Balt needs to beat Cle to win their division.  The other two are up in the air.  But either is possible. 

Being at #2 would be a great spot.  Bosa or a ransom of picks.

But lets be honest, beating the Pats and knocking them from their bye week would be pretty special too.

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8 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I could understand the tank thing if there were an offensive player worthy of a top 5 pick this year or it there were a player I thought a team would be willing to give fair value in a trade for but this doesn't seem to be a good year for us to tank. I simply can not justify cheering for the patriots to beat us next week.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

There has to be a freaking stud at #2 or #3. You can't miss picking the second or third best player IN THE COUNTRY! We need to nail this, whoever we take.

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Jets get closer to top draft pick after Raiders-Broncos gift

December 25, 2018 | 9:09am

 
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Sam Darnold
Sam DarnoldGetty Images

 

On Christmas Eve, Jon Gruden let the Jets unwrap their gift early.

The Raiders, in possibly their final game ever at the Coliseum, knocked off the Broncos, 27-14, on Monday night, a win that was a loss for their draft pick.

Oakland moved to 4-11 and fell behind the Jets in the draft order because of tiebreakers. Entering the final week of the season, the 4-11 Jets are holding onto the No. 3 pick, behind the 49ers (4-11) and Cardinals (3-12).

The Jets visit Foxborough on Sunday, while Arizona travels to Seattle, San Francisco heads to the Rams and the Chiefs host the Raiders.

There is still a remote chance the Jets improve to the No. 1 pick, but it would take a Jets loss, Cardinals win and some help. (ESPN gives them a 2.5 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick.) 

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5 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

Moving up to #2 (or #1) would be great. Sliding down to #6 or so would reduce a chance to trade down. Is it wrong for me to root for and hope for a Jets win over the Pats?

5 is the lowest we could go.  It is possible, depending on outcome of other games that we would only drop to 4 with a win.  SOS is close with Lions, not sure how it will shake out if we win.

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2 hours ago, shuler82 said:

3 vs 6 last year cost us 3 2nd second round picks. Not saying this year will net as much in a trade back, but every spot closer to #1 we get, the more value the pick has - and this organization needs to stockpile draft picks 

It's not 3 vs 6, it's 3 vs 2.  And as I said we don't need a QB where positioning is much more important.  We're not trading multiple picks to move up for someone who is debatably better than another player.  That's all.

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2 hours ago, mtwarlock31 said:

Would be great to GET picks for a FQB or Bosa.

Don't see a QB worth paying a fortune to move up for but could be.  

If we're in a position to draft Bosa we're picking him, not trading it away.  Unfortunately he's probably the number 1 pick and we're not going to pick 1st

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